11.40 Kenilworth: Juvenile Plate, 5f
Alpine Express finished really nicely against older, so returning against his own agree group gives him an obvious chance over his possible optimum trip. Nonetheless, he’s got to give 2.5kg to the filly Distinction, who looks quite forward and talented.
She ran a bit into trouble in her first couple of starts but showed some nice change of gear, especially on her second career outing. She won at the third time of asking over 1200m and the last time was an excellent runner-up in Listed company.
Those two times she showed lovely early speed – even after braking awkwardly the last time – travelled strongly, kicked on and got a break on the field. She was just caught late by smart Who Do You Love the last time. The forms out quite well already. The third Bonika went on to win a Listed race subsequently.
Top man Richard Fourie jumps on board today. The ease in the ground should suit. Distinction ran really well on softish ground on her second start. It might slow things a little bit down as well. She has the speed for the minimum trip but is probably better over the added trip.
10pts win – Distinction @ 5/2
3.00 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Communion improved significantly on his handicap debut last month compared to what he showed in qualifying runs. He was stuck on the inside though for the entire run with nowhere to go. Very late he finds some space but the bird has long flown.
That form is probably not a bad one, already starts to work out well and should work out even better in the future.
Off a 50 mark I reckon he’s got a bit more to offer on his second run in handicap company over this 6 furlongs trip. He looked green, raw and with plenty to learn in all four career starts so far, but with some experience under his belt I hope for improvement.
This is a pretty poor race, begging for an improving sort to grab the bull by the horn. Communion can be the type of horse to have enough in hand.
10pts win – Communion @ 13/2
5.15 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
Sophiesticate has been crying for a step up in trip lately. She caught the eye when finishing strongly in third place on her penultimate outing at Hamilton.
That day she was locked in against the outside rail while going strongly, having to delay and delay, eventually switching to the outside over one furlong from home and then staying on.
She wasn’t suited to a small field and sprint finish the next time. Clearly going up to 10 furlongs can only be a positive. Visually she appears to be badly in need of the trip. On pedigree she looks totally fine too.
10pts win – Sophiesticate @ 6/1
7.15 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Sydney Bay was such a huge eye-catcher last time out (same race as Communion), I believe he could have 10lb+ in hand going up in trip. A mile will surely suit this son of Australia. The fact he made such a huge impression over 6 furlongs on handicap debut is quite promising too.
That day he dropped to the rear of the field halfway through the race, travelling like an absolute dream, though behind a wall of horse. Given a bit of rain, and finally some space, he took it an instant, although it was way too late to trouble the leaders.
I don’t think going up in class will cause any issue. He’s at least a mid-70s horse. Off 63, as bottom weight only bad luck can prevent him from winning.
10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 7/2
Note: possibly addition Race 1 Kenilworth – Distinction. No prices available yet. Will update tomorrow morning if >2/1.