Never Ending Story ran a super race for 2nd place in the Diane. But again, nothing to shout about, I’m afraid. She had absolutely no chance with sensational Blue Rose Cen.
Alligator Alley went off too hard and faded for 3rd. Michael’s Choice ran a shocker, after being punted into 5/2f. Typical, at the moment.
27 down and getting rather too close for comfort to the all-time longest losing streak of 31 from last autumn. I guess, if hitting a rotten spell, then let it be one for the ages.
More often than not selections beat SP, so I’m not too worried. The last 4 month things went only one way; at some point it has to go the other way.
Variance is real, and can be painful. And it happens regularly, I need to remind myself. There were multiple runs of 12-20 consecutive losers this year already, and yet it’s a winning year – so far. The average odds back then were not much different to what I’m backing now. What’s happening right now is, to the most part, random, and down to ‘luck’.
I find it helpful in these dark days to consult my records but also always remember Hugh Taylor’s excellent educational piece many years ago:
Saying that, I would lie if I would say this current run doesn’t weigh on my confidence at least a little bit. A winner would help, sooner rather than later.
……
6.55 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
A handicap for horses winless this year. It looks competitive on the outset, however the pace scenario could compromise the chance of some of the better fancied runners, like Good Luck Fox and Strong Power.
The one I’m fascinated by is Jojo Rabbit, who goes from #1 one and who may enjoy the company of Eeh Bah Gum, who’s also a pace horse and drawn right beside him If these two move ahead, I think it’ll compromise the chances of the higher drawn runners.
Jojo Rabbit showed a clear return to form last time at Ayr. The form hasn’t quite worked out but he ran extremely well from the front for a long time, always under pressure.
He dropped another 2lb, now down to 73, that’s a whopping 12lb below his last winning mark, which was a class success over this course and distance last summer.
Fast ground and minimum trip seem to bring the best out of the gelding and this will be the first time he should find ideal conditions this season. With his lowed mark and possibly good pace scenario he looks dangerous.
Saying that, I made this bet on the basis of an earlier weather forecast which said there wouldn’t be too much rain tomorrow, expect some showed tonight but warm and sunny on Monday. That has changed now: it seems to be coming badly now.
It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Jojo Rabbit has some solid form with some cut in the ground. But it’s far from ideal. My money is down, though, and that’s that.
Not gonna happen right now, is it? Huge run by Barrier despite drifting out to 33s for 2nd place, but that’s no good for me as a win only backer. Bell Song was well backed down to 9/2 SP, and then didn’t get a run from off the pace.
Searching vain for the elusive next winner. “Funny” thing: pretty much the exact same happened last year at this time of the year. A torrid first half of June.
…….
4.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Lunario was arguably an unfortunate 3rd last time at Lingfield, when beaten in the tightest of finishes in a photo that could have gone either way. On a different day he could have been the winner.
Fair arguments can be brought forward for the notion that he was the ‘moral winner’ – if such thing would exist – and he should be able to make amends here on Saturday.
He meets Gone once again, the winner last time at Lingfield, but on better terms. Because Gone has gone up a couple of pounds, whereas Lunario remains on the same mark.
Over 7.5 furlongs at Lingfield last time out I felt the performance warranted an upgrade, though. And if that proves correct, the colt could be well-handicapped.
There he was slightly bumped by a rival as the left the gates. Still somewhat green and raw, he was niggled behind the leading horses, possibly even a bit flat footed, but then made huge progress on the outside once pulled out for a clear view of the final furlong.
Even tough he seemed destined to run home and grab the W, he didn’t help his case when hanging badly to the left, as he continued showing greenness.
That was Lunario’s Handicap debut and it’s fair to assume he can progress from here. If he can than there is every possibility that he’s better than a 65 Official Rating.
He steps up in trip, albeit ever so slightly. On pedigree there’s no doubt he’ll stay a mile, in any case.
It’s also worth pointing out that at Lingfield he achieved a 65 speed rating, despite everything that went wrong on the day. Therefore, he must have a massive chance to win, if he runs straight to the line.
10pts win – Lunario @ 5/1
…….
1.45 Scottsville: Grade 3, Track And Ball Derby, 12f
Airways Law is one I’m tracking for over a year now, ever since he caught the eye on the All-Weather with some scintillating performances early in his career, before he won a Durban July trial in impressive fashion and subsequently ran an eyecatching race in the July.
He’s hard to fancy on recent form, or basically anything he had done since last July in four subsequent runs. Although, his two runs in Grade 2 company in December and January were a lot better than the bare form suggested.
The gelding had a recent comeback run here at Scottsville after about 6 months off the track. He had a tough task over the short trip and on the weights and wasn’t expected to do much.
A 12/12, 13 lengths beaten result doesn’t instill much confidence that he’s anywhere near in form. But as he moves up in trip, and quite significantly, it’s should be noted Airways Law usually improves for his second run.
There is every chance that this here is a prep run for a bigger date on the July card (or the big one itself), but the fact he 2/3 for rest+2 is pointing more toward that this is his “July”, as he also would need to show a significant return to form to feature in any future big race.
The trip is on the far end of what the gelding is likely to stay. On the other hand they won’t go a mad gallop and this race is much easier than the Grade 2’s he ran in prior.
Also, looking back to last years July run, which was as far as he ever went, he stayed on pretty well This is a very winnable contest and the fact he travelled well and with enthusiasm during his recent reappearance suggests there is still some fire in the belly.
Wow. Truly shocking stuff right now. 18 and counting. It all goes wrong. A truly odd ride on Pearle D’or, who finished 6/7 but had zero chance from his position after being restraint, despite the fact his upturn in form came when making the running last time.
He didn’t even have a bad start. In fact, all options were open to Jason Watson for about the lengths of the first furlong. He opted for the worst of all options – the only one you want to take over this course & distance if you want to minimise your chances of winning.
Not here to bash jockeys from my armchair. It is what it is, but I felt the horse was not given a fair chance, and that’s disappointing. It fits the picture right now as it happened a number of times over the last days that the race was over right after the start. A rotten spell of the worst kind.
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5.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Classified Stakes, 6f
This is a rather competitive field for this nature of race. The pace scenario looks ominous. There should be enough on for a fair race, although it all is going to develop toward the far rail, most likely.
That’s not quite ideal for my selection, Griggy. He goes from #8, but I hope he can find find away to start well, cross over and track the early pace. Or do I make the same mistake once again, backing a horse who’s chances are gone less than 10 seconds into the race?
If the possible pace setters Bernard Spierpoint, Oxygen Thief and Wrath of Hector go off too hard and take each other on it could tow Griggy nicely into the finish, though.
He certainly looks in excellent form and must have a prime chance in this contest after his latest eyecatching effort at Brighton.
He was forced to settle off the pace given the way the race developed at early, but was going well, poised for a challenge 3f out. Unfortunately, he had to wait for room as the gap was never truely opening up with horses right, left and center shifting around.
It was only late in the day he found the clear passage, and that’s when he finished best in the final furlong, eventually.
A great run and a clear return to form after two lesser efforts on the All-Weather.
Griggy is down to a sexy mark and that offers him the opportunity to run here in the Classified 0-50 contest. An 0/5 record on turf ready poorly, however he was never expected in any of those runs, including the most recent eyecatching one.
The Bath performance proved that he clearly handles fast ground and is dangerous on turf over 6 furlongs as well. The additional half furlong will be in his favour and a fast pace to track looks ideal, as long as he doesn’t get caught on the outside without cover.
The additional 3lb claim of a solid rider in the saddle are an added bonus. That’s the reason why I feel it’s worth taking on hot favourite Bernard Spierpoint who was an impressive winner and always goes well in these type of races.
He ran an impressive speed rating, judged on his current Official Rating certainly, as well. At the same time, Yarmough is a completely different track to Brighton, the pace is a different one here, and that most recent field of five rivals he had to beat was incredibly poor.
There are some better rivals here. First and foremost Griggy, who has an advantage in the weights, too.
Grim stuff today. I was quietly confident to back a winner, maybe even somewhat hopeful of landing the double, as I thought both Muy Muy Guapo and Revoquable were seriously well-handicapped in their races.
They may have been. Both ran – given the circumstances – not bad races. Although, Revoquable was eased after his big mid-race effort couldn’t make up for the disadvantage he had to overcome after the start. Muy Muy Guapo had too much to do from the back of the field and didn’t get the best of runs either.
It was a risk – and I willingly played the risk, so can’t complain and only wonder whether my judgement was correct – both horses are prone to sluggish starts to their races. So it happened, and that was that for their chances, basically.
This game can throw you off course rapidly. Only Monday a week ago I was still on a great run, having backed seven winners in a fortnight…eight days later, and it’s 17 losers on the bounce. Autsch.
It’s the usual up and down. Even last month, a solid green month, there were sequences of 14 losers and 10 losers. It happens. Over these last days there are perhaps two bets I would like to have back. The others I’d do again in the same situation.
Also many have ran well, but circumstances were against them. I back low-grade horses mostly – small things can change their fortunes dramatically. That’s all part and parcel of the game.
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7.50 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
A hot race, pace wise, that’s for sure. I’m less sure about the depth of this class 4 contest. Not many of these 7 runners appear well-handicapped or open to any unknown improvement.
That could play into the hands of Pearle D’or, who remains lightly raced and somewhat unexposed as a four-year-old.
He caught the eye last week at Yarmouth wearing a hood for the first time. That day he quickly established the lead and clearly enjoyed the front, without showing the signs of keenness he did on his seasonal debut.
He kicked on well over 2f out and broke the hearts of most of his rivals, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace to wear him down inside the last 150 yards.
That was his 2nd start for a new yard after he changed hands for 40k and moved over from ireland.
The last two seasons trained by Dermot Weld, the gelding showed some promise, especially when landing a 6f maiden on his racecourse debut at Naas, when he also achieved a noteworthy 76 speed rating.
Things went downhill from there and he’s probably not quite as good as initially hoped after that debut win. But he’s down a possibly lenient 82 mark right now, and showed a proper sign of form last time out.
Decent ground should suit, he certainly acted on the fast surface at Yarmouth. Hamilton’s stiff finish could suit as well, given he won so well at the equally stiff Naas over this trip.
He also has options to move up in trip on pedigree. This extra bit of stamina, coupled with decent early speed, may be the ideal combination in this race with a hot pace expected up the Hamilton hill to the line.
Muy Muy Guapo drops in class and trip. Hopefully the sign that the handbrake is off. If it is, I do believe this lad could go on a streak and win two or three on the bounce.
He was a massive eyecatcher back In February as he returned from a break for a new yard. He travelled so sweetly, and was able to answer all the accelerations from the leading bunch so easily – horses in this grade don’t do that often, normally.
He’s still a colt – although hardly a stallion prospect – and cost £115k as a yearling. So there must be some talent, as visual evidence suggests as well.
He wasn’t expected in his last runs but once again caught the eye when last seen at Newmarket. He was drawn away from the pace and raced away from where the race developed. He had no chance from there and was ridden in a way to ensure he wouldn’t show too much, either.
Nonetheless, he made some nice progress from halfway through the race, and finished, without ever being properly asked, the fourth fastest home over the last three furlongs.
He drops down to class 6, also down to 6 furlongs, which I feel is possibly his optimum trip. He can start awkwardly and that is a risk, especially from the #5 gate at Salisbury. He may be trapped if he doesn’t get away well.
I’m prepared to take the risk as he’s more likely to be very well handicapped off 66, I believe.
10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 13/2
………
5.50 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Revoquable is in tremendous form but can be his own worst enemy as he’s not a smart starter. Nonetheless, each of his last runs was noteworthy and better than the bare form.
He was bumped early the last time at Redcar and didn’t seem to travel too well subsequently, yet showed a great acceleration mid-race and ran on well to finish a fine 4th and ran to a 51 speed rating.
Wide draws and the way the races developed didn’t help in preceding runs, nonetheless, at Thirsk, when a strong runner-up, he showed a lot of adversity as he finished best, and achieved an fine 54 speed rating.
The fact that he confirmed the strong impression of his eyecatching February run at Southwell multiple times subsequently suggests to me he’s ready to win and overpriced here.
A good draw, not an overly hot pace expected and fast ground could be ideal for him over a mile in a very winnable race. He looks well-handicapped here off 54.
It’s a wild game of ups and downs. Last week very much on a high. Days later things look bleaker. Another blank on Saturday. 14 on the bounce the red L.
Raasel ran well, good third place, but no chance with the winner. The ride on Fiftyshadesofred didn’t make any sense. I’ll give her another chance with a better rider on board. Winforglory stayed on strongly, but too late, and it seemed he didn’t have the early speed needed up in class.
Looking back over the last week, many ran well enough, still, even got placed. I’m quite satisfied with the selections, to the most part. There’s probably two I’d like to have back. Otherwise, happy enough. The upswing will come…. hopefully sooner, rather than later.
Ay always on a day after a huge Grade 1 in South Africa, a quick note on the big race there: Charles Dickens got his redemption. He beat the older horses for the first time. And he did it pretty easily
The 3-year-old superstar colt lost his unbeaten record in the King’s Plate back in January when he was bravely taking on the best older milers in the country. He was ran down late by Al Muthana for second place.
Not so this time. Al Muthana, who was here again, and won the Gold Challenge in excellent style twelve month ago, came with a late charge once again, but it was game over by then.
The rides may have made a difference, some argued. Al Muthana had to come around wide. Charles Dickens got a dream run through on the inside. True. and yet, that’s how Al Muthana has to be ridden. He didn’t have enough late speed this time to ran home a stronger Charles Dickens.
It’s clear now that Charles Dickens is a miler. He still shows signs of early keenness. He’s still raw in the finish. He’ll never get 10 furlongs I reckon. That’s a problem if he wants to prove his greatness in his home country.
I hope, though, that connections consider a move for international races, as difficult an endevour this can be for South African horses. His options are ultimately limited at home, but he could be good enough – let’s find out – to take on the top-class milers of the world.
……….
2.35 Navan: 3yo+ Handicap, 5f
A highly competitive affair, one I would usually stay away from, especially in Ireland. But I’m somewhat desperate the give Lokada another chance as the ground is just perfect for the lightly raced filly.
Who knows how much longer the relatively dry and warm spell continues here, there comes a time decent ground is a thing of the past, and then Lokada doesn’t even need to go to post.
In saying that, the race evolves around Only Spoofing, who’s clearly been set up for this race, down to a mark of 80, he was well hidden lately and it’s clear today is “D-Day”.
No doubt on last years form he’s got a proper chance and will enjoy the going too. But he’s a 9-year-old, nonetheless. At given prices he can be opposed.
The others, like Harmony Rose, Curraheen Princess or Screen Siren and Tawazoon are real dangers on their best form. This is competitive.
Lokada has drifted out in the betting this morning. I’m not too worried about it and more delighted that she’s now a price to back.
Reportedly she needed a lot of time to learn and grow last year, but landed two 5f sprints at Dundalk in November in fine style, subsequently running with tons of credit from a wide draw at the same venue before a winter break.
She returned at Naas last month and ran a huge race in second place behind a seriously well-handicapped winner.
She was prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran home strongly up the hill for 2nd place on her side. She didn’t have a chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.
She achieved a 70 speed rating there and I was keen to back her next time at Tipperary to go one better. It was initially disappointing to see her finish a well beaten 4th only, but in hindsight it’s clear she bumped into a well-handicapped improver once again.
Also: the winner aside, she did much the best of those drawn wide and therefore ran a little bit better than the bare result would tell. Another excuse…. at some point there are none left and it is what it is.
Yet, I strongly feel her last two, perhaps taking the last Dundalk run into account as well, can be upgraded. The handicapper dropped her back to 71 (from 74), which is more than fair and gives her a huge opportunity.
As mentioned before, she ran to 70 at Naas, she also achieved a whopping 81 speed rating on the All-Weather last year. She has a low weight, possible the ideal #7 draw in this field, the track should suit and she’ll love the ground.
No excuses today? Hopefully not. Though, I become slightly concerned that since having written this piece and backed her, she continues to drift further in the betting. To a point soon, possibly, where the odds are utter nonsense. In those cases, as we all know Irish racing: if it doesn’t make sense there is a reason for it.
That’s one of the reasons I don’t bet Irish racing much. I find it even less trustworthy than low-class Britain. But here we are. I made the call, my money is down. Hopefully on a trier.
As I increase the volume there’s going to be blanks days nonetheless. Must say I was quietly confident Friday wouldn’t be one, though.
In the end what’s left is a second and a third place. Not good when you have five chances and four of those are expected to be close.
Cuban Breeze was the one who came closest… within half a lengths of victory. The rest, never looked like winning, truth told.
The one I’d like to have back is Belsito. I still like the horse and his chances in general, however the low draw diminished his chances right away and I should have seen it coming – or, at least take that more into account for the price. 9/2 was a silly price to take. A poor value selection.
……
1.15 Haydock: Listed Achilles Stakes, 5f
A strong field for a listed contest. Equilateral may get the perfect race from his draw and wit the likely pace scenario, though at prices I can’t leave Raasel unbacked.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the straight track rides, but the fact he could have a pace to chase on his side from the #1 draw as well for potentially an easy route out on the outside for a challenge is something possibly positive.
He can be clearly forgiven the recent Temple Stakes run, as it’s widely known how the draw played a major role in the outcome of that race. The same could happen here.
It’s a smaller field, there is a different pace scenario, on the other hand, and that may even things out.
Raasel left an unsatisfying Meydan adventure behind when he returned to more familiar shores with an excellent 4th place in the Palace House Stakes. he achieved a 98 speed rating there, the best anyone in this field ran this year so far.
Fast ground is no issue for him. As long as Haydock rides fairer than a few weeks ago he looks a huge price here.
10pts win – Raasel @ 11/2
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3.20 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Fiftyshadesofred looks seriously well-handicapped if he can put his best foot forward. Hee’s a tricky lad, yet he has ran two strong speed ratings in two of his last three races, both over 7 furlongs.
Last time at Ayr he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.
Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.
It should be ideal that there’s a lot of pace to be expected here in this race. He has a good draw to follow it, as long as she starts well. That should help him to settle.
William Pyle is a competent 7lb claimer. This weight allowance can only help; on the other hand he’s a tricky ride. So some risks are attached.
10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 9/2
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8.00 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Winforglory is up in class here but should still be well capable of winning in this grade, especially over 7 furlongs on fast ground. The hood is back on, which hopefully helps him to settle better, as he can be quite keen.
Even though he won over a mile on the sand, I’m not sure he would get a truly run race on turf, especially a demanding course like Chepstow. Hence this 7 furlongs test could be ideal.
The gelding was catching the eye with his last two runs -first at Chelmsford, his second run off a 207 day break, when a bit unfortunate being a clear run denied in the home straight. Perhaps even more so when last seen at Lingfield:
That day he tracked the hot early pace but he was seriously keen with the hood off, did way too much too soon. I was impressed how he was still able to kick on and challenge for the win, less than two lengths beaten in 3rd eventually.
A strong 75 speed rating gives the performance merit. He looks clearly capable to win off his current mark and should be some pounds better. The jockey booking is a risk, though. This 7lb claimer just doesn’t win races and usually rides horses to lose.
10pts win – Winforglory @ 4/1
……….
One more I’m interested in but not any price able to get tonight, waiting for what the market says tomorrow and then going to decide….
Belsito makes a lot of appeal as he moves up in trip again. Over the minimum trip he seemed to be taken off his feet at crucial stages of races, but he always showed great attitude in the final stages of his last two runs especially, while also showing solid early speed at the same time.
That says, on his seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh he fell out of the gate, before he overcame that awkward start quickly, moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. He did way too much to get there and ran really well in those circumstances overall.
He followed up next time at Redcar when he set a strong pace and fought gamely to finish third eventually.
He’s a full-brother to a Group 3 winning miler, so going up to 6 furlongs should be a positive.
He tried it twice early in his career, without success, but he had valid excuses on those days, I think.
10pts win – Belsito @ 9/2
……….
4.40 Thirsk: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Stalingrad is cherry ripe I feel, yet on fast ground I’m not sure I want to trust this 22 race maiden here as the favourite in the betting.
Trust is needed to back Dream Together as well after a recent breathing issue and wind op.
He certainly looked amiss after a weak finish when last seen at Haydock, after he actually travelled quite well on stands’ side there for a long time, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as he was racing away from where the pace developed.
He travelled strongly to 2f out before his effort petered out and we now know why that is. If the recent operation has rectified any issues he’ll be a huge chance.
He could easily get a perfect position closer to the stands’ rail and dominate the race from there in a field where not to many want to move forward.
He’s another 2lb down and well-handicapped now based on the fact that he ran pretty well most of the time in recent weeks. Also he achieved speed ratings last season that if he can run somewhere close to those here today – now that he’s hopefully healthy again – makes him a stand out horse from a handicapping perspective.
10pts win – Dream Together @ 5/1
………..
7.00 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Yellow Lion was a serious eyecatcher at Newmarket when last seen and looks the one to beat if he can run to the same level of form.
He drops in class, but perhaps even more importantly he drops in trip. He didn’t seem to stay a mile at Newmarket. However, he travelled sweetly for a very long time, in a manner of a talented horse. He did so without cover on the outside of the field as well.
The colt showed good early pace and fine cruising speed before he dropped out quickly from 1.5f out and doing so without having an ideal race and against solid opposition.
That was his handicap debut, he’s lost 2lb off his opening mark in the meantime, so has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper.
The way he travelled gives the impression that he may enjoy proper fast ground. I could envision that he may even would enjoy the drop to 6f, but 7f is certainly worth a go here.
10pts win – Yellow Lion @ 4/1
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7.20 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Cuban Breeze ran a lovely race earlier this week at Wolverhampton when 2nd behind one who was potentially well-handicapped on old form, and who got the run of the race from the front.
This here is easier. A fillies’ 0-80; Cuban Breeze is clearly in excellent form as evidence of her last two runs. Wolverhampton was a strong performance, so was her Windsor run prior.
She made too much there from the front in deep ground conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs she showed in most of her more recent runs.
She’s now 4lb lower than her last winning mark, which cam off 85 over 6f on fast ground last August.
The fact that visually she made good impressions in recent weeks but also that she ran to a 79 speed rating at Kempton at the end of April points to the suggestion that she’s in strong form, ready to win.
10pts win – Cuban Breeze @ 4/1
……..
7.55 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Batchelor Boy could be seriously overpriced in this field where many have questions not answer, not least on the handicapping front.
The gelding showed signs of form the last two runs, since coming back from a break. He bumped into a well-handicapped one on his seasonal reappearance and ran a tremendous race from the front the last time at Brighton over 7 furlongs.
He flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. He gradually tired but was game to the line.
The drop to 6f is sure to suit, so does the fast ground. Haydock as a more conventional track is intriguing, as most of his racing has been done at Brighton.
It’s a concern that he hasn’t run a significant speed rating in over two years, but I give him the benefit of the doubt given that most recent strong performance have suggested he’s in the same form as when winning races in the last two years.
First time visor looks intriguing, too. He won in first-time blinkers in the past.
With Respect was a huge eyecatcher the last two times as he appears to be in superb form.
Two starts ago at Salisbury he was heavily bumped by a rival as they jumped out of the gates, as he wasn’t helped by his own awkwardness, either. He then travelled strongly against the inside rail, made good progress and would have probably won, I presume, if he would have got a clear run.
He only got out late, switched, found momentum again and finished strongly. He ran to a 70 speed rating equal to his mark on the day and he makes plenty of appeal off 2lb higher the next time on turf. However, he ran at Kempton’s polytrack instead, a fortnight ago, over 7 furlongs.
He was disadvantaged from the #10 draw right from the start, and didn’t help the matter getting away from it awkwardly. He settled well off the pace, travelled a bit keenly, especially around the bend, but made tremendous progress from 3f out.
He finished best over the final three furlongs, but had too much do to get into a position to challenge, hence he wasn’t able to quite sustain his effort.
He’s yet to win over 7 furlongs and there’s a fair question mark looming over his ability to stay the trip. However, he showed in the past that he can finish very strongly over 6 furlongs, even on deep ground, so it’s worth a chance.
I think off 67 he’s potentially well-handicapped in this class, if he gets home and can get a clear run. The better draw should be a help, and there’s not much competition in this field that gives the impression to be well-handicapped.
In this big field getting a run may be the biggest challenge, in fact. He’s allowed to run off 5lb lower than his current turf mark and to me seems as good on sand as on turf.
10pts win – With Respect @ 13/2
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8.45 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Albegone must have a major chance as he drops down in class and has a good draw to get a position close to the the inside rail, after he ran a huge race last time out at Carlisle.
There he set a hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting understandably quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he got swamped late.
That should be good form I reckon. The way he travelled for so long was eyecatching. He’s clearly down to a very fine mark as the handicapper dropped him another 2lb.
Even though he’s best with ease in the ground, he’s competitive on fast ground too. After two placed efforts from three runs over this course and distance in the past, a victory looks a strong possibility here.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
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