Tag Archives: Review

A Day at: Chester Racecourse

Chester has a reputation for being officially the “oldest racecourse still in operation” and for attracting a particularly rowdy crowd… so I was all about finding that out last Saturday.

As usual, a quick hop across the pond thanks to an early flight from Dublin airport, this time to Liverpool. The sun was shining upon arrival, though the odyssey of getting to Chester was only to begin.

Even in good times it doesn’t seem totally straightforward getting to Chester via public transport. What’s should be about half an hour by car, requires triple the time with bus and train – and that’s if the trains are going.

Last Saturday they were not. The Chester trainline had a mechanical fault and that meant taking replacement busses to get there. Let’s say it took a while and I arrived – much like anyone else – a lot later in Chester than anticipated.

It’s a brisk 15 minute walk to the racecourse from the train station, and the hopes of getting there in time for the first race faded when I was greeted by gigantic queues that had formed in front of the different entrance gates.

So I missed the first race, was already sweaty and exhausted, and definitely ready for a burger and a chilled beer. Saying that, the sheer amount of people, the noise and smells, Chester Racecourse on a balmy Saturday afternoon was an experience I was ill-prepared for.

Racecourse Experience

The layout of Chester racecourse, confined by it’s location, means there’s a lot of walking required, especially if you come to see the horses. To get from the stand to the (pre-) parade ring, you have go underneath the actual track through a tunnel – and back, of course, if you want to see any racing action.

From the infield, where the parade ring is located as well as an a array of food- and drink stalls, vans and bars, there is no elevated view for the poor Tattersalls enclosure racegoer, and the rails are rammed with people. Hence you’ll definitely get your 10.000 steps per day… which is a positive, I guess?

The parade ring itself is huge, and despite the large crowd, thankfully there was always a spot somewhere to get a good view of horses. Size (of the parade ring) matters, in this regard. The pre-parade ring was the place I enjoyed the most, because it was a tiny bit quieter, and you could observe the horses without the armpits of a fellow racegoer in your face.

I must say, it was obvious that many yards in most races came to get a result. The vast majority of horses looked stunningly well prepared: shiny coat, well defined muscles, fit and ready! Although, especially the younger horses, seemed to struggle with the noise, and many were playing up.

I was glad to pick out Rosenpur in the second-last race as the absolute standout pick in the paddock in her race, as well the entire day, and backed her to win readily – it paid for the day, and that’s always appreciated.

Once you laboured all the way back through the tunnel to the stands, there were multiple stands to watch the racing from with a ticket for Tattersalls, and generally the viewing was class. I preferred the stand beside the County Stand which had an elevated platform type viewing area from the top, with superb views across the entire track as well as the big screen.

By the end of the day I had figured out a way to be efficient with the time and walking between parade ring and stand to see as much of the horses and the racing action.

My Tattersalls enclosure ticket was ‪£‬35 + ‪£‬1.25 online booking fee. Expensive, given there was a single class 3 Handicap, and otherwise only lower graded races. However, it was a long day with eight races, to be fair.

Food & Drink

There plenty of variety and different options of food and drink across the entire track, whether that was stand-side, or in the infield. I had a burger for about eleven pounds, which wasn’t a great burger, but decent enough for the price – given this is a racecourse.

I enjoyed the fact there was some solid craft beer available. Not cheap, of course, you pay for drinks anywhere these days, anyway. About ‪£‬8 for an IPA from the van was steep, but then again, it’s not out of the ordinary these days, sadly.

Again, to be fair, the pints tasted good, and I didn’t expect value for money on that front at this racecourse – or any racecourse for that matter – any longer. I made the point often enough in the past, that obviously British racing is pricing out a huge audience with the way they price tickets, food and drink, but that’s the way it is and it won’t change. Milk the cow as long as the juice flows…

Odds of Return

If ever, for some reason, the chance occurs to be back, then I won’t protest too hard. However, I wouldn’t actively seek it out. Chester caters to a specific audience. It’s the “have fun day out with plenty of drink…. oh and here’s this thing on four legs, I heard it’s called a horse” crowd they’re after.

For racing fans this isn’t a great play to be. I was simply overwhelmed by the massive crowd, and simply the staggering amount of drunk women who wore precious little clothing, and were stumbling across the lawn after one (or perhaps ten?) too many drinks by the time the second race went off.

This isn’t my cup of tea. That’s fine. There are other tracks that suit me better. I still had a good day, ticked off Chester and finally have a better understanding of how this ever turning track looks in real life.

A Day at: Ayr Racecourse

It was a mixed experience at “Scotland’s premier racecourse”, much like the unsettled weather on “Family Fun Day”.

Last Sunday I finally had the opportunity to visit Ayr Racecourse, which bills itself as “Scotland’s premier racecourse”. This race day wasn’t ‘premium’ but I was keen to go racing at a place where I rarely back any winners.

Ayr is only a short 40 minutes trip by train from Glasgow, situated on the southwest coast of Scotland and therefore quite accessible. I flew in from Dublin to Glasgow International Airport in the morning, then walked to Paisley train station and a £12.50 Off-Peak Day Return ticket brought me all the way down to sleepy Ayr on this drizzly Sunday morning.

There’s enough time for a hearty breakfast (The West Kirk, a Wetherspoon, but architecturally exciting as it’s a converted church), a chilled IPA ( Willie Wastles Sports Bar) and a leisurely stroll through town before hitting the racecourse.

Racecourse Experience

It’s £25 through the gate. Steep for a day full of screaming children – it’s “Family Fun Day” – and a bunch of class 5 and 6 races. My biggest bugbear is that an early bird offer was available: £20, which is much fairer – however, the website didn’t allow me to complete the booking with an Irish address. Reaching out to the racecourse via e-mail didn’t yield a response. Disappointing.

That aside, the racecourse is certainly mostly gorgeous with its old Victorian-style stands, the old clock towering over the grandstand and the pretty flat racecourse that’s 100% observable for the racegoer from the stands.

A big screen was available and added to the racing experience, especially for someone who’s into the actual sport: great viewing from the stands, supported by decent binoculars and the screen, made the actual racing experience work well for me.

I loved the large parade ring as well: you can simply walk to the end of it, where the pre-parade ring is located as well, to get a full view of the horses in the preliminaries right until they leave for the track from there.

The inside part of the stands has a number of bars for drinks – I never had to wait long in line – and ample opportunity to sit and follow the action on the screens from there.

Food & Drink

I’m conflicted. The drinks were seriously good value in this day and age: £5 for a lager, and £5.50 for a Guinness. The variety of food offerings were decent, if not great.

Pricing generally fair for a racecourse, although the coffee prices for a regular cup, which is still rather small in my view, is quite excessive – though that’s the case at most racecourses – especially as the coffee is basically brown water.

I felt truly ripped off at the Ice Cream van where I ordered a small single cone with a sprinkle of chocolate sauce for £4.50, which is a lot of money for a small cone. It was literally the tiniest bit of chocolate sauce to the point where it was barely noticeable at all – which says something because the small single cone was certainly tiny.

The worst part: I only realised it later after I checked my banking app, was getting charged £5.00 (which would have been a ‘regular’ single cone) instead of £4.50.

Expectations are low when buying ice cream at a racecourse. I know it’s overpriced; and yet I got quite a few here in Ireland over the last weeks. It’s a treat. But the ice cream van at Ayr took it to new hights. Sure, it could have been an honest mistake… still not a great experience.

Odds of Return

2/1

Overall it was an enjoyable experience; probably for a racing fan like myself, it would be even more enjoyable on a day that’s not called “Family Fun Day”.

Given the quality of racing isn’t always brilliant and entry is on the steep side, this feels more like one “seen it, done it, next one” I don’t mind coming back one day, most likely that’s not too soon, though.

A Day at: Brighton Racecourse

It’s been on my bucket list for a while: finally I made it to Brighton – a racecourse that looks marvellous on TV with its sweeping turns and the blue sea looming large in the background.

I must start with a proper bugbear:  £17 admission for a card with only six races, all class 6, is ‘taking the piss’. Perhaps quality-wise this was the worst raceday I’ve ever been to. Only three of those six races attracted eight runners on the day – shocking stuff; is anyone really surprised the sport is in decline with the public?

In fairness, as a flat racing fan, I found the study for all the six races rewarding, as they were – at the very least – quite competitive and intriguing for their low grade. Which didn’t make it any easier finding the winners, truth told.

For me going over from Dublin for a day-trip, getting to the racecourse was a smooth experience : a quick flight over in the morning to Gatwick, then the train down to the coast, and a 35-minute leisurely walk through Brighton.

Racecourse Experience

First things first: I absolutely love this racecourse! It intrigued me whenever watching racing on TV, and in reality the place is as picturesque as it gets – Brighton could be forcing its way into my personal top-3 of racecourses.

Simply fabulous, Brighton offers everything I love and want from a racecourse – perhaps, bar the missing ice cream van, especially on a hot day.

Of course, it helps when the sun is shining: It’s June and it felt like summer. Appreciated, especially as I returned to a cold and miserable Ireland in the evening, mind – so I really would have loved an ice cream as well!

The closeness of everything is perfect at Brighton. It makes it a cosy place to walk around, get a pint, a burger, watch the horses in the parade ring, take a seat alongside the winning post and walk up to the stand and watch the racing with the sensational scenery in the background.

I imagine it can get crammed and uncomfortable on the bigger days when the place is packed; though, for this low-grade Monday afternoon the course was well attended, and created a lovely, relaxed atmosphere.

The views from the grandstand are magnificent. The rolling hills, the sea in the background and the majority of the track observable with binoculars, plus a big screen to follow the action – this is a wonderful place to watch racing.

Food & Drink

Unfortunately it’s customary at British racetracks that you pay through your nose. Brighton isn’t different, to the most part – for example £3.50 for a small, industrially manufactured chocolate brownie. Saying that, a decent burger for €8 pounds is nearly fair in this climate, and a pint of Hobgoblin IPA for £6.30 most likely a steal!

Brighton is a small track, and on low-grade day as this, only half the bars in stand are manned. No problem, I never had to wait long to get a drink. The variety of offerings wasn’t great, but that might be different on bigger days.

Positive is the ample space outside alongside the rails or parade ring to sit down to eat and drink… or simply to soak up the sun.

Odds of Return

4/6

Brighton is a wonderful place to go racing. The easy access, the views, the lovely grandstand, the cosiness – I’ll be back, for sure. Obviously, especially on low-grade day, admission isn’t cheap. That’s a the main thing I didn’t appreciate.

A Day at: Hamilton Park

I always wanted to get a first-hand experience of Hamilton Park, a track where horses come to a near standstill in the closing stages thanks to a notorious stiff finish to the line.

Last weekend the opportunity for a maiden visit to Hamilton Park finally presented itself: that’s UK racecourse #17 ticked off the list for me. This May 4th visit coincided with the tracks opener for the in 2025 and was also billed as “Family Day”.

It showed: Hamilton Park was rammed with families. Screaming kids everywhere. The place was packed, perhaps the balmy spring weather a great help to get people through the turnstiles as well.

So here’s a quick report of my day at Hamilton Park, and a final assessment of what are the odds of me returning in this life.

Let’s Go Racing

Situated just outside of Glasgow, getting to Hamilton is pretty straightforward: for me that meant catching a flight at 6.50am in Dublin, arriving with ample time for a breakfast fry in Glasgow, before then catching the train from Glasgow Central to Hamilton West, a 30-minute ride with ScotRail.

The £6 for the off-peak return ticket felt fair (plus £16.50 for the luxury of taking the airport express bus to Glasgow city centre).

It’s another 25-minute walk from the station to Hamilton Park – not the most scenic walk, that’s for sure – though, I took a little detour through a rather deserted Hamilton on that Sunday morning.

In any case, as far as travel to a racetrack goes, Hamilton Park is generally quite easy to get to with public transport, and that’s a big plus for me.

Not a Cheap Day

An adult ticket purchased in advance was £27. That’s okay for British racing, but feels steep compared to Ireland, given this was a bog-standard day with the one class 3 Handicap as the ‘feature race’.

In comparison: ‘Early Bird’ tickets for Irish 2000 Guineas or Irish Derby day cost €20 and €25 respectively. Irish Champions Weekend Saturday – arguably one of the best days of flat racing in the world – is still cheaper than the ticket for Hamilton.

I know one can’t compare like for like necessarily. But I do feel it will come to bite the sport in the UK sooner rather than later that parts of society are effectively priced out of it.

And it doesn’t stop with getting through the door. The rip-off proper starts inside. I was gobsmacked by the prices for food and drink. Yes, it’s a sporting event, things cost more there, yet it seems bonkers that you have to pay £7.30 for bad lager, or £12 for a pretty simple Chicken Burger (without chips – those are a fiver on top!).

Three thin donut rings with a glaze of sugar? £4.60. The seven quid for a the Guinness in a plastic cup was nearly “value for money” at that rate.

And let’s not forget going racing without having a bet isn’t really an option for many people, either. So it all adds up: a day at the races is expensive.

That’s nothing new, and it’s not really an issue for me, truth told – I’ll continue to fly over to go racing in Britain, simply. because I love the sport.

Nonetheless, I wish racecourses (not all, but a majority) wouldn’t “take the piss” if it comes to prices for food, drink and or even the cost of entry and having a decent view of the action.

Rant over.

The Racing Experience

The Class 3 Handicap over 1m 5f and Class 2 Novice Stakes over the extended mile were the highlights on the card that offered seven races in total, with a bunch of lower grade handicaps filling the rest of the card.

Sallaal, the winner of the Novice Stakes looked a smart prospect. The 91 rated son of Frankel could go on to do better things, although he seemed quite unruly during the preliminaries, having unseated the rider and needed to be walked all the way to the post.

I truly enjoyed the compact nature of Hamilton Park. The distances between pre-parade- and parade ring, and then to the grandstand, are short. Bars and facilities always close. Betting ring right in front of the stand.

There is one stand, the views are fine from there, except the initial part of the loop when horses turn left for the longer races, everything else is visible, and the long straight with the horses climbing the last 2 furlongs makes provides an excellent view of how each race unfolds when it matters most.

Obviously I don’t know what’s the experience on a normal day, perhaps family day didn’t help, but a few me opportunities to sit and relax would have been welcomed.

The small restaurant and bar/betting shop area inside the grandstand were always full to the brim and it was impossible to find a spot to sit and just sip a coffee or beer while studying the racecard. A small coffee van. like it’s present at most Irish tracks, would have been nice too.

Odds of Return

2/1

Overall I enjoyed my visit to Hamilton Park. The weather helped, and while it was packed, it never felt too uncomfortable, except the lack of options to sit. I mentioned my gripes with costs of going racing here, specially given this wasn’t a “Premier” day.

I wouldn’t mind to be back one day. If I never get back in this life, it won’t be a big issue, either. Maybe not on “Family Day”, though. The view from the stand of the long straight is class, and the compact nature of the course ideal.

Betting Review 2022

376.30 points profit, 35 winners and 19% ROI. It was an eventful year with plenty of lessons learned.

2022 was a challenge on many fronts, “on and off the pitch”, so to speak. On the pitch it clearly was an ever dramatic up and down. From the absolute highs of backing the longshot winner in the Melbourne Cup to the absolute lows of backing 31 consecutive losers.

At times I struggled, stumbled and lost confidence in the process that has been tried and trusted for nearly a decade now. Ultimately, though, 2022 proved to be another profitable year.

The process is alive and kicking, still working well enough to produce winners and a green P&L sheet – at the end of the day for a sixth consecutive profitable betting year.

Raw numbers

  • 376.30pts annual profit
  • 19.29% Return of Investment
  • 201 Selections
  • 35 winners
  • 17.41% Strike Rate
  • 8/1 average odds

Selections on turf produced the majority of the annual profit with 310pts; about 141pts from UK selections alone. Irish selections were also profitable this year with about 49pts profit.

The All-Weather shows a 59pts loss. I didn’t back a winner on the sand until late October, in fact. A clear upswing since then, with 156pts profit in the last two months of the year.

As always, outside of UKI things look positive: 13 international bets produced 160pts profit.

On the flat the majority of this years profit came in class 5 and class 6 Handicaps. All but two winners came in races below a mile. No surprise, as that is my main focus, both in terms of class and distances.

Selections in races over the 7 furlongs trip yielded the highest return: 285pts profit from 38 selections. Closely followed by the minimum trip that yielded 237pts profit for seven winners from 25 bets.

In contrast 6 furlongs produced a whopping 147pts loss from 36 selections. 37 selections over the mile trip resulted in 95pts loss. Middle to longer distances were a loss-making endeavour, too.

I’m not a jumps man betting wise: 11 selections, 95pts profit, largely due to a fine Cheltenham festival with 5/8 successful bets.

Ascot has been a kind track to me this year, both in terms of producing winners as well as eye catchers that went on to win subsequently.

Newcastle (0/10) and Doncaster (0/7) have been a disaster, on the other hand. Kempton (1/12) is a track I struggled, as well; I am not sure whether I ever backed a winner at Carlisle. Certainly not in 2022.

As for the selection process (flat only): eye catchers contributed 181 pts (222pts in Class 5/6, but minus 86pts all other Handicaps), traditional form analysis added 70pts to the annual profit, the rest made up by a bunch of system bets.

A complete overview of all selections and annual data going back to 2017 can be found here if anyone is keen to dig deeper.

Key Learnings

While 2022 was a solid year, it didn’t feel like a good year at all. It could have been – perhaps should have been – a much better year than it has been, for various reasons. There are 3 key learnings I hope to transfer into 2023.

Trust The Process

Be consistent and trust what’s working well – yes, reflect and don’t shy away from change if required, but the core of the process has remained the same for nearly decade and continues to work well.

Bet the process, not the outcome….

It’s the one thing you hear every profitable punter say. because it’s true. I need to remind myself of this mantra, once in a while, especially in times when variance shows its mean face.

My process works. It’s profitable. It takes a lot of effort. But it rewards the work and effort plenty fold. It does… if I do trust it, though; even during lean times. Be consistent about the approach to finding bets (i.e. the process) and good things will happen…. eventually.

Be Patient

An extension of consistency and trusting the process. It requires patience. There are no shortcuts.

Patience also means picking and choosing your fights. In the summer, when up to 20 eyecatchers could run in a single day, the fear of missing out can led to a rushed decision-making process. This will almost certainly lead to poor bets.

There’s simply too much racing, it can be overwhelming. Instead of attempting the impossible, be selective and focus on the races that play to the strengths of the process. Be patient, it’s the long term that matters. If “one gets away”, so be it. Tomorrow is another day.

Variance is your Friend

I endured some brutal losing runs this year: 31 consecutive losers- and only one winner of 48 bets between July and September. Only one short-priced winner of 27 bets between April and May.

Tough times. And inevitable. Especially given the average odds of my bets – around 8/1.

Sequences of losing bets are nothing out of ordinary; in fact they are to be expected and statistically inevitable. It’s variance. As simple and brutal as it is.

Knowing this doesn’t make it easier to endure. I was wondering during those times whether I “lost it”.

On the other hand, a simple look back to previous years would have shown that losing runs happened every year and the up- and downswings can be quite violent, as the 2017-2022 P&L graph presented earlier demonstrates pretty well.

Where things go down they have to go up again. What followed the most horrible months of my “betting career” was a November for the ages: the most profitable single month in over four years.

Remember, it’s a never ending ultra-marathon – as long as the P&L sheet is green in the long run it doesn’t matter what happens in the short-term, as long as value is still present in each and every price taken.

2022 Favourite Winners

I backed 35 winners in 2022. Every single one is important, no matter the class of the race. But some mean more than others, if only on an emotional level. Here’s my 3 favourite winners in 2022.

Gold Trip: Melbourne Cup

Backing the 21/1 winner in my favourite international race, is the standout moment in 2022.

Gold Trip’s victory came at the right time as he kicked off a golden November. Prior to this fateful first November day, I backed a meagerly two winners from the last 53 selections. All forgotten, when you land the big one.

State Of Rest: Prince of Wales’s Stakes

A gutsy, honest colt, trained by Joseph O’Brien, State Of Rest got a peach of a ride by Shane Crosse at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s, beating odds-on favourite Bay Bridge.

This win came at the right time, after backing only a single winner in the last 26 selections. I got 8.4 on the exchanges, which looks stellar value in hindsight.

Sammarco: German Derby

Far from the biggest winner of the year, but certainly one of my favourites. I was incredibly sweet on the son of Camelot, as he caught the eye in serious fashion on his previous two career starts and I felt he could even develop into an Arc contender.

While his season ended somewhat in an anti-climax, his German Derby triumph was as dramatic as brilliant, given the way the race developed. This winner was one of 9 in a glorious July.

………..

Finally, thank you to all readers, be it here or on Twitter, and especially those that have engaged so eagerly. 

It makes it twice as enjoyable if you can share the passion for the sport with other people, and even more so if others can derive value from this site as well. 

On to a wonderful and hopefully profitable 2023.

Monday Selections: 1st August 2022

I have one selection on this (Irish) bank holiday Monday. But first I’ve got to take a quick lock back at what was a wonderful and pretty profitable month of racing.

July 2022:
46 bets, 9 winners = 162.5pts profit & 35% ROI

It was a fine, fine month from a betting perspective. And possibly even more important to me personally: every month this season was in profit. It’s not always been easy.

The second half of July proved once again how contrasting the good and bad times can be in this game. You have to stay levelheaded and put the emotions aside to succeed. Easier said than done, I must admit.

Clearly my highlight was backing Victor Loza at 12.5/1 to win comfortably from the front at Epsom. I was watching the race in a pub with some friends which made it even more enjoyable.

Betting aside July was a wonderful month purely as a racing fan with top-class action all over the world: Durban July, German Derby, Eclipse…. absolutely loved it.

……….

7.15 Carlisle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A speculative choice at this time of the day given the chances will be significantly enhanced if the rain arrives in time for Gorgeous General.

His turf form reads awful on the surface, but he didn’t have many opportunities to run with ease in the ground, even though he produced a career best on turf judged on speed ratings over this CD on good to soft ground only four weeks ago.

Rain is expected to arrive from late afternoon on at Carlisle, and a significant portion of it. That might be enough to turn the going to good to soft come 7.15pm.

Gorgeous General caught the eye a number of times this year already. Certainly over the CD run last month, when not getting a clear run. Also a strong finish last time out from off the pace in a race dominated by the front-runner was another clear sign that he’s in excellent form.

Yet the handicapper has “rewarded” those fine performances with dropping him in the ratings. This is an open race, he may struggle to get into it from off the pace with space probably coming at a premium. But I feel he’s so well handicapped that at the price it’s worth a go.

10pts win – Gorgeous General @ 8/1

Irish Derby 2022 Review

The 2022 Irish Derby saw a dominant winner in Westover. Arguably an unlucky horse at Epsom, he demolished his seven rivals at the Curragh.

He looked a proper Derby horse on Saturday, and not, as some suggested, a Leger type. There were also question marks over the suitability of the Curragh. Personally I felt the stiff finish and the galloping nature of the track would suit really well.

That turned out to be true. Westover looked extremely comfortable, and the track played to his strengths more than anything else.

Westover

The true merit of the performance will come to the fore as the season goes on. Main rival Tuesday didn’t fire. The filly couldn’t back up her strong Oaks victory. Perhaps she didn’t recover in time, given she also ran in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas earlier this year. This was probably one race too many.

Regardless, the fact is Westover was more than entitled to win even against a peak Tuesday. She had opportunities in the Group 1 races but couldn’t crack the topspeed 100 mark yet. She’s probably much better over 10 furlongs anyway, if given the opportunity.

In the absence of a true rival it was more the visual impression that “wowed” the crowd. Whether Westover would have been good enough to win the Epsom Derby with a clear run is pure speculation.

Nonetheless, I think all racing fans will be hoping that we get a “rematch” with Desert Crown at some point this season. Such a clash looks much more open after the Irish Derby. Not to forget 3-year-old horses improve at a different pace throughout the year, so things can look different the next time these two meet.

Given Westover’s excellent performances at Epsom and the Curragh it makes me wonder how good Cash could be. He was one of my Five To Follow this season and he ran a huge race in the Sandown Classic Trial when runner-up behind Westover.

He didn’t make it to Epsom and neither to Chantilly, having picked up an injury in the meantime. David Simcock said they’ll be patient and target Ascot in autumn. He’ll stay in training next year, most likely. It will be exciting to find out how far Cash can go.

……….

Eyecatchers:

Some horses caught my eye at the Curragh on Saturday. Want to give a quite shoutout to them (I’m not doing the weekly eyecatchers at the moment due to time constraints) for those interested to keep an eye on them.

Power Under Me
1.25 – 6 furlongs, Listed

Was early on isolated on the stand’s side racing without cover. Chased the fast pace, travelled pretty well until put under pressure from 1.5f out. Battled to the line but had to let two horses pass. Fared best from those close to the pace. First and second came from off the pace.

This is probably his level. Perhaps able to be competitive in Group 3, but found out in higher grade last time out despite some excuses. 6f with a bit of ease in the ground most likely the ideal scenario.

Raadobarg
2.35 – 1 mile, Listed

Raced in midfield most of the race which developed further up field. Had too much do in the home straight but ran on well from his disadvantaged position. He gave the impression would he had tracked the eventual placed horses a bit closer he could have been seriously involved in the finish.

Was desperately unlucky last time out in France when badly hampered in the moment he was coming with his run to potentially win the race. Looks still improving. 7 furlongs to a mile will all be fine, but ideally with ease in the ground. In fact the softer the better.

Boundless Ocean
3.45 – 1m 4f, Group 1

Raced in last position dropped in, was keen at different stages of the race, although a little bit better settled than in other races this year. Had a lot to do from the back of the field turning for home given the race was won at the frontend. Made a good looking move from three furlongs out until emptying in the closing stages.

He’s a difficult colt to ride it seems. Can miss the break and often pulls really hard for his head. But he has clearly talent. Was a bit unlucky in the Gallinule Stakes when short of room at a crucial stage and pulled way too hard over 12 furlongs when runner-up lto. Unlikely to stay 12f with his demeanour but could be underestimated over 10 furlongs.

……..

Irish Derby day Photos:

©Florian Christoph

Tuesday Selections: 19th April 2022

After a disappointing run for Chief Little Hawk at Wolverhampton on Monday it’s back to the green grass on Tuesday with a confident selection in the Epsom opener.

Before we look what’s on the menu there let’s take step back and see what happened on Easter Monday in the Irish Grand National. Willie Mullins was sending out exciting Novice Gaillard Du Mesnil, who went off the 11/2 favourite on the late evening as Fairyhouse was basking in sunshine.

The 6-year-old gelding travelled well for most of the race in the hands of Paul Townend, although he was a bit tight for room two fences from home. This didn’t have any impact on the result, though. Because the winner travelled equally well, only to find more than anyone else in the closing stages.

Lord Lariat, a 7-year-old gelding won the Irish Grand National as a 40/1 shot, outrunning those odds in some style. Remarkably he’s done it for the same trainer and jockey as twelve months ago when Freewheelin Dylan claimed an amazing 150-1 triumph for local trainer Dermot McLoughlin and 7lb claiming jockey Paddy O’Hanlon.

For one of the smaller yards this is a near unbelievable achievement. Especially as neither Lord Lariat nor Freewheelin Dylan were supported by the public in the betting at all.

All questions whether Lord Lariat would stay the 3m 5f trip where comprehensively mastered and clearly horse was well managed through the season by McLoughlin. He won like a good thing.

………..

1.50 Epsom: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This will be fast and furious as races over the minimum distance down the Epsom straight tend to be. Progressive Electric Love is of interest, so is Recon Mission of a reduced mark. Thegreatestshowman appears a touch overpriced back on turf.

But the one I am really keen on is Mokaatil. No surprise, he was on a recent eye-catcher list for his season opening run at Doncaster. That day I felt he looked full of enthusiasm late in the race despite the trip being not quite his optimum.

He ran with credit at Lingfield in a hot Handicap since then but wasn’t fancied and neither was I interested in him that day. It’s a different story over five furlongs at Epsom.

Mokaatil is down another couple of pounds in his rating, drops back into class 3 and down to the minimum trip. He is the reigning Epsom Dash winner from exactly the same 82 handicap mark, followed up at Musselburgh to win of 86 and run to 85 and 80 topspeed ratings in those races.

In combination with the well-being confirmed in the referenced recent races he’s an obvious shout the marked doesn’t miss. Yet, having a highly capable apprentice on board claiming additional 7lb – and looking good value for the weight allowance – Mokaatil is a big chance and still underestimated in the betting.

10pts win – Mokaatil @ 7/2

……….

Chief Little Hawk was a big disappointment today. He missed the break and the race was basically gone from there. He made bit of late progress without ever challenging.

I’ll keep the faith for another day. Ideally on turf. There is a race in him to win, for all the reasons mentioned in the preview.

Eye-Catchers #3 2022

A list of horses that have caught my eye during the last seven days of racing. These individuals look ready to win a race sooner rather than later.

After John
09/04/22 – 2.05 Thirsk:

Travelled in rear of the field. until making excellent progress from three to 2 furlongs from home. Confronted with a wall of horses to pass he has to switch wide, taking the “scenic route” in order to get a clear run.

This move cost time and momentum and by the final furlong marker it’s too late to catch the eventual winner who always travelled isolated away from the field.

It’s fair to assume on a different day After John finishes a whole lot closer to the winner. He’s certainly responded to the change of scenery having moved yards on this first run for Ian Jardine.

He’s down to a handicap mark of 64 and on past form he’s well handicapped, no question. He ran four times to topspeed ratings of 65 or higher and performed well of a mark of 67 in 6f Handicaps last season.

I am hoping the handicapper won’t bee too harsh after this run and leaves him on 64. If that’s the case I reckon After John will be a big runner over 6 furlongs wherever he pops up next.

Race Replay

Andromedas Kingdom + No Patience + Breach + We’re On The Way
10/04/22 – 5.20 Curragh:

This was a wild race with as many hard-luck stories as you want to pick out. I could make the case for more than a handful of horses that ran better than the bare result suggested. But “only” four individuals find their way into the tracker.

Andromedas Kingdom travelled well on the heels of the main bunch on the stands’ side. Having to pass everyone with nowhere to go she was switched to the middle of the track in the hope for greener grass. She made dramatic progress from 2 furlongs out and finished well under hands and heels.

This was her first run in Handicap company also also her comeback run coming off a 251 day break, while having changed yards in the meantime. She is a half-sister to 100 rated sprinter Boundless Power, but I imagine she will improve going up in trip. A mile looks highly possible on pedigree. With more improvement to come a mark of 55 could easily underestimate her.

No Patience raced in midfield of the main pack on the stands’ side for the majority of the race. He was boxed in and couldn’t improve his position until about half a furlong from home when he ran on strongly under an easy ride.

He’s an experienced individual and we know all about him. However, given 6 furlongs is likely on the sharp side these days, I do rate this run as a strong performance.

He’s down to a sexy mark (turf and All-Weather), given he won off 65 over 7 furlongs at Dundalk last April, ran a good race in a hot Leopardstown Handicap last September from 10lb higher than he’s rated today, and achieved a 71 topspeed rating in the past. He looks rejuvenated for having changed yards and is ripe to win back up in trip.

Breach travelled in rear of the main bunch and is another one who had nowhere to go. She also got badly hampered over two furlongs out when running into the back of a horse. She’s switched moments later and finishes easy as you like in eye-catching fashion.

This filly has been hidden. She has raced over wrong trips since her move to Ireland. She almost certainly stays a good deal further. The dam was a 10 furlong winner. Watch out for when she moves up in trip. Her day will come.

We’re On The Way was yet another significant hard-luck story. He had no chance, was multiple times hampered and had any momentum stopped from over two furlongs out. Given a bit of reign in the final furlong he picked up seriously well, though.

He also is one you would think has no business to run over 6 furlongs. He will stay further and should improve going up in trip. Watch out for that. This was his seasonal comeback run which enhances the performance as he was not fancied at all on the day.

Race Replay

Secret Eagle
11/04/22 – 5.50 Pontefract:

He made perfect use of a low draw to chase the early pace and be in a good spot given the nature of the track. He continued to drive forward from three furlongs out and attempted to steal the race from the front turning for home while the fellow pace setter faded away.

He was finally caught with one furlong to go but continued to rally impressively to keep the 3rd spot.

This was a clear return to form and evidence that a recent wind operation has worked. Secret Eagle is down to a solid mark, having ran to topspeed 71 as a juvenile and having been placed of 3lb higher last August (a strong piece of form).

He acts over 5 furlongs as well as 6 furlongs, on softish as well as decent ground. Though, I suspect he’ll need a bit of cut in the ground for the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Ebtsama
12/04/22 – 7.45 Wolverhampton:

This filly was already on the #1 2022 list. She caught the eye here once again in a hot race. As mentioned earlier this month I want to see her stepping up in trip before backing her, so I let her run without my money.

Perhaps in that context it was disheartening to see how much she pulled in this 6f contest. Nonetheless, with more experience and a solid pace I maintain that 7 furlongs will be ideal.

Turning for home she was following the eventual winner who kicked on 2 furlongs from home. Ebtsama didn’t quite seem to have the instant change of gear to follow but also found herself boxed in, denied an opportunity to unleash her own challenge.

This could be a blessing in disguise because she may be dropped a couple of pounds by the handicapper for finishing last. She appears seriously well handicapped once stepping up in trip – and if she can relax. Perhaps head gear in some form is an option.

The form of the race looks strong on topspeed ratings. Most horses have ran to their handicap mark too – always a good sign in my book.

Race Replay

Harry Three
13/04/22 – 1.50 Newmarket:

He travelled in rear for the first half of the race. Made his move from 3 furlongs out, but crucially toward the far side, away from where the actual race would eventually develop.

He quickened in impressive style – backed up by strong sectionals. But he had to do it all on his own in the closing stages. In the end he was just beaten by two horses on the stands’ side.

He looks like a colt who is progressing as a 3-year-old after showing a lot of promise toward the end of last season as a juvenile. He is lightly enough raced to imagine he can improve again.

He didn’t always got the best of runs the last two starts he was beaten before coming here to Newmarket. All in all, over the 6 furlongs trip he clearly can win off his current handicap mark – granted the handicapper won’t treat him harshly for this effort.

Race Replay

Thursday Selection – 14/04/2022

Third day of the Craven meeting. But my eyes are drawn to Bath for an eye-catching betting proposition. Though, I also want to take a look back at the Craven Stakes.

Native Trail was the main act on Wednesday at Newmarket. The way he won the Craven Stakes was impressive. Even though, one could also argue this was expected after what he had done as a juvenile.

Personally I think the performance was impressive for the simple fact that we have seen often enough in the past how these top-class 2-year-olds wouldn’t train on or simply lose their edge as the rest of the pack has caught up physically and mentally.

That sort of fate may still beckon for Native Trail later the year. For now he must be considered the prime candidate for the 2000 Guineas, though, and the betting market says as much. There’s no secret here.

However, the fact he ran out an easy victory yesterday, achieving a topspeed rating of 100 on his seasonal reappearance, is impressive in my eyes. He’s ran three times in a row to TS 100 now. That’s the sign of a quality colt. And I would be more than hopeful that he can improve on that if properly asked for full effort in the Guineas.

My eyes were naturally drawn to Claymore in the Craven. Having called him out as one of my 5 To Follow I was anxious whether the bubble would burst as early as his first run as a 3-year-old.

It didn’t. He finished a gallant runner-up. Clearly still green, raw and what Jane Chapple-Hyam called a “big baby” afterwards – who was also seriously unruly before the race – he’ll learn plenty from this experience. He’s not quite cracked topspeed 90 here, but improved on his debut 83 from last year. Surely there is more to come.

Chapple-Hyam mentioned the French Guineas as the likely target as opposed to the Newmarket classic.

…………

4.20 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

As uncompetitive as this Bath opener looks, as much does experience tell us that these races can be pure carnage and tend to produce many hard-luck stories.

I still have to back favourite Fristel. He was one of my eye-catchers from last week and I feel this test over 5.5 furlongs will represent the ideal race for him. He finished much the strongest last Monday at Windsor on his turf debut while not getting a run until very late.

In this class and of his current mark I feel he is seriously well handicapped, particularly with another 3lb off the weight with apprentice Stefano Cherchi on board – which is his sole ride today.

This is Fristel’s 6th career start, only the third in Handicap company. He caught the eye as juvenile on the All-weather as well and as long as he gets a clear run, which is the main danger more than anything in this field, he will have a major shout.

Money is coming all morning so prices may vanish soon. any additional money is an obvious positive pointer to his chances.

10pts win – Fristel @ 7/2