Tag Archives: August

Betting

Monday Selections: August, 5th 2019

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4.00 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

having dropped to a dangerously low handicap mark, the first time visored Delph Crescent looks to have found an ideal opportunity to get his name on the scoreboard again.

The 4-year-old ran well of much higher marks earlier this year already, but now down to an official rating of 72 offers a unique opportunity in a race that is wide open and is set to be run in conditions to suit.

Delph Crescent won three times last year, latest successes came off 73 and 78 and he also achieved topspeed rating

won of 73 and 78 3lb claim good form earlier this year visor of 78 and 71 back then. With a fair 3lb claimer in the saddle today he looks rather obviously well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Delph Crescent @ 14/1 MB

………

8.30 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Look Surprised won this twelve months ago and the mare looks in with an excellent shout this evening again. It’s a poor field she tackles here, while dropping to a very tasty mark, now 2lb lower than when winning it last year.

Her latest showing at Bath is slightly concerning as she was expected to run well, however her other three starts on turf this season where respectable, albeit not particularly good either.

One has to hope a return to Windor, a track Look Surprised has a 50% strike rate, can revive her best form. Certainly she has ran her to career best topspeed ratings of 68 and 64 the last two years.

Selection:
10pts win – Look Surprised @ 6/1 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 4th 2019

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2.00 Chester: Class 4 Nursery, 5f

Rarely do I get involved with juveniles, but I feel this race is for the taking, given the favourite has to deal with a stiff opening mark given by what he has shown in three starts so far, and the second favourite is certainly not well handicapped.

But the filly Shammah appears to be massively underestimated based on two below part efforts lately, however on unsuitably fast ground.

She looked potentially smart winning a novice contest at Windsor in June, though. Which is pretty strong form judged through the 3rd placed horse Hubert, who subsequently was only half a lengths beaten behind smart Homespin.

Shammah’s Windsor performance earned her a topspeed 79 rating, which came on good to soft. She’s dropped below that mark in handicapping terms, now on an official rating of 78. So from that perspective, given she also has a top draw today, finds conditions she likely enjoys, there is potentially more to come and she can easily be well in.

It’s important to note that more rain is on its way to Chester and Shammah’s dam has shown her best certainly with cut in the ground. Despite plenty of stamina in the pedigree, Shammah appears to break sharply, so she ma well be able to utilize the plum draw and her superior stamina, in a bid to go hard from the front today.

Selection:
10pts win – Shammah @ 5/1 MB

……..

3.55 Galway: Premier Handicap, 7f

another rarity: a bet on Irish flat racing! But, again, I feel pretty strong about a horse today, even though it’s the madness of Galway. Quickly turned out again, albeit slightly different circumstances, Rufus King looks sure to outrun his price.

He was a fine 4th on Tuesday here but ran out of gas in the closing stages over a trip stretching him as well as from a wider than ideal draw, which meant he had to do a little bit more than he’d want to have done in the early part of the race.

Today Rufus King drops down to 7 furlongs, is drawn in stall four and remains on a tasty handicap mark. He’s hasn’t won of this or similar ratings lately, however ran with plenty of credit, not only at Galway, but also of a pound higher in an ultra competitive handicap at Ripon last month.

Certainly he is on a handicap mark he’s sure to have a good chance of winning, granted he ran to higher topspeed ratings in the past a few times as well.

Selection:
10pts win – Rufus King @ 13/2 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 2nd 2019

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Newmarket Rowley Mile after race

2.35 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 6f

A re chance to back a horse on the sand over the summer today: The Blues Master is a silly price. Sure, there is a Mark Prescott favourite who may well be hard to beat if the improvement so often seen in his horses comes to fruition. Though, his record on the All-Weather this year is significantly down compared to other years.

I think this favourite is for the taking at odds-on. Hence The Blues Master is pretty much a logic choice. He returned to the track after a long lay-off when finishing a strong runner-up at Newcastle at the end of June.

Only one pound higher today but a class lower, while stepping up in trip to a more suitable 1 mile & 6 furlongs, given he ran to a topspeed rating of 71 in the past, I feel he will be really competitive today.

Selection:
10pts win – The Blues Master @ 9.5/1 MB

……..

7.30 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Los Camachos on his first run for the John Gallagher yard is an interesting runner in a race that has not too much quality in depth. The gelding was claimed and I would argue he ran pretty to form and current handicap in his last two runs in claiming company.

He appears to be slightly better on the All-Weather, but even on turf, despite a win yet, he’s been four out of six times in the money. He also ran to a topspeed rating of 78 last summer here at Newmarket, something he matched and bettered at the All-Weather.

Los Camachos also ran to TS 77 in a claimer three starts back, suggesting he is still pretty much in this range.

So, for a new yard with an excellent 5lb claimer in the saddle, with conditions to suit, at a track he performed well before, of a mark of 78, I feel this lad is well overpriced.

Selection:
10pts win – Los Camachos @ 17/1 MB

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7.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs

As the The Daley Express is out, who’d I’ considered a major player for the victory in this race, it opens the door for Just Glamorous who drops into class 4 where he is three wins from four runs.

The six-year-old may not quite be the force of old but appears to handicapped to go close, nonetheless. He’s been running rather well in four of five starts this season, bar one to forget over in Ireland.

Now down to a mark of 83 again, the same he came an agonizingly close second at Goodwood in May of, when he also matched an 83 topspeed rating, Just Glamorous is weighted to win.

The ground may be a bit too fast to be considered optimum conditions, as he also has an engagement at Thirsk tomorrow, there is a ‘risk’ hell be a none-runner. But he has form on fast surfaces, and with first time cheek pieces fitted plus a pretty competent 7lb claimer in the saddle, I’d love to see him taking his chance this evening.

Selection:
10pts win – Just Glamorous @ 9/2 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 31st 2018

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4.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Leigh’s Law won a shade cozily on handicap debut a fortnight ago. Making all from the front, he ran his rivals into the ground and was able to pull out more and more when the tough questions were asked.

The travelled really well in what was described as good to soft ground, so today’s conditions shouldn’t pose a problem.

A 3lb hike in the mark is fair enough. Here’s hoping the small step up in trip help Leigh’s Law, as he seemed t keep galloping strongly in the closing stages. Natural improvement on what will only be his fifth career start could see him overcoming this task.

Selection:
10pts win – Leigh’s Law @ 14/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selection: August, 29th 2018

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5.00 Catterick: Class  5 Handicap, 6f

It was a narrow margin on the line last month when Indian Pursuit won over course and distance. The five year old is a true course specialist and has won off higher marks here in the past. Most notably his final win in 2017, over CD of a mark off 65.

He’s been running to time speed ratings a good deal higher than his now revised mark off 62 in the past also. So in theory the 3lb raise for the latest success may not stop him yet.

It was a much more commanding win than the winning margin says, in my mind. First time visor fitted seemed to help as he crossed over from a wide draw and went to lead by a frantic pace by a couple of lengths for most parts and only inside the final furlong he tired.

Same conditions today, the wide draw, as we have seen, isn’t a problem. Indian Pursuit looks in with a big shout once more.

Selection:
10pts win – Indian Pursuit @ 13/2 MB

 

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 26th 2018

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3.15 Beverley: Class 3 Nursery, 5f

The short priced favourite is a foolish price in this rather competitive nursery in my mind. Most importantly, that leaves my selection Snazzy seemingly undervalued in the market.

This filly won – arguably a not overly strong race, granted – very impressively on debut earlier this year at Newcastle overcoming all sorts of trouble. Subsequently placed in Listed company, she was found out for class stepping up to Group 2 class at Royal Ascot.

But, despite not coming too close to win, Snazzy ran extremely well in defeat in two subsequent starts when things didn’t quite went her way in highly competitive events that have worked out well form wise in the meantime.

A drop to the minimum trip should work in her favour and with first time visor applied from a good draw I would expect her to go forward here.

Selection:
10pts win – Snazzy @ 10/3 PP

…….

4.25 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f 

I was keen on Ghazan on handicap debut back in May after the colt showed plenty of promise in three juvenile starts, particularly the final run in 2017 looked excellent form.

From a wide draw he had a lot to do at Leicester on what was his seasonal reappearance and always travelling wide as a consequence didn’t make it an easy task. After coming briefly off the bridle over 4f out a shake of the reign saw Ghazan travelling notably strongest of all until nearly 2f out when he then tired and wasn’t given a hard time.

That form has worked out quite well in the meantime, so the fact Ghazan was able to travell all over that sort of field is encouraging as I felt beforehand he might have been underestimated by an opening 75 mark.

He’s on 74 today, drops a bit in trip. That in combination with the rain arriving should suit him well. Hanagan is in the saddle, a bonus. Question remains why the absence since May. If he’s fit and well then Ghazan should have a big chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ghazan @ 11/2 PP

……

5.20 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A pretty consistent runner. albeit on the go for a long time, Roundabout Magic is one who more often than not gives you a good run for your money. He is also one who finds trouble on a regular basis.

So happened a week ago at Windsor. He travelled strongly and seemed to come with a big run when badly hampered 2f out.

He’s already won this year and was multiple times placed plus ran a career high time speed rating of 67. This small field should suit, if the pace is on.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 6/1 VC

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 24th 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

5.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 5f

Bottom weight Sister’s Act sparks my interest here. This Equiano filly has shown early speed in her few starts before, totally unfancied though, it wasn’t a surprise so her finish flat.

She now makes her handicap debut off a low mark in a not overly competitive contest switching to the All-Weather which should suit her better on pedigree. Her mother is a winner on the sand as daddy Equiano has a sublime record on the All-Weather with his 2yo offspring over sprint trips, particular on left handed tracks.

Interestingly, trainer Peter Hedger’s record with juveniles on the All-Weather is also quite excellent (small sample size, but fits in well with his general performance in AW Handicaps).

With that in mind there is every chance Siser’s Act gets her act together today.

Selection:
10pts win – Sister’s Act @ 16/1 VC

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 23rd 2018

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4.50 York: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Ultra competitive and in-running luck will play its part here, though it can be argued Move Swiftly has a cracking chance if all goes smoothly given her progressive and at the same time impressive profile.

Further down the packing order seems Richard Fahey’s Clubbable who’s not expected to run well if the market is any useful guide. I feel this filly has a bit more to offer than credit is given to, though.

She’s won two races this year already, was visually incredibly impressive when landing a good Chelmsford class 2 Handicap in June when things didn’t go to plan but she found a superb turn of foot once in the clear.

She backed this up with another big performance in the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle when a close runner-up behind 100 rated Dance Diva. A subsequent Newmarket run stepping up to a mile was disappointing, however once shouldn’t judge her too harshly on a subsequent 16th place finish at Ascot most recently.

She received a heavy bump right after the start by the horse to her left and found herself subsequently behind a wall of horses and on the disadvantaged far side.

She’s down to a mark off 92 which looks high enough but also offers room for a bit of improvement with the right conditions. She will need luck in-running given her often sluggish start, but if Clubbable gets the right breaks she’ll have a better chance than her current odds suggest.

Selection:
10pts win – Clubbable @ 29/1 MB

Betting

Tuesday Selections: August, 21st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

3.50 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

True Romance drops for the first time into a class Handicap ad also down to a career lowest mark of 56. Reason for this are four incredibly poor showings this year – a surprise after the gelding looked reasonably progressive last year.

Clearly the yard change hasn’t done him any good, on the other hand his SP’s tell a story of a horse not fancied to do anything in those four starts anyway.

It looks different today, with money coming on for True Romance, who’s backed well and besides the low mark and drop in class also has blinkers fitted for the first time. That might be enough to revive him and any return to some sort of last years form will see him go close.

Selection:
10pts win – True Romance @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 19th 2018

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4.05 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 

The betting tells the tale: this is incredibly competitive. So it surprises that there is a 6/4 favourite – a wrong one, in my mind. I feel top weight Completion is clearly a cut above the rest on everything form wise we know for now.

That can change, of course, but Completion’s own progress may not yet come to a halt. He’s been disappointing in his last two starts on naked form, however there are fair excuses for it. 10f seemed a step too far last time out and the Heritage Stakes at Royal Ascot a super tough handicap where defeat isn’t a disgrace.

Before that, though, Completion won in excellent style on his turf debut at Redcar and was a formidable runner-up in an ultra competitive Haydock Handicap. Those forms work out really well and the fact he ran to TS ratings of 84 and 92 this year already suggest he is up to his current handicap mark.

Conditions should suit today, he’s got a nice draw and is likely to be positioned not too far off the pace. With top pilot Daniel Tudhope in the saddle Completion has a major chance to find back to the winning ways today.

Selection:
10pts win – Completion @ 7/2 MB