Tag Archives: Beverly

Thursday Selections: April,18th 2019

Second Step

Besides having a runaway winner in Kylie Rules (10/1) at Beverley yesterday, I absolutely loved the debut win of UAE Jewel in the Wood Ditton. You take note if they back a newcomer in an early-season maiden at HQ as if  defeat is out of question – and boy, defeat was out of question!

Judged purely on the visuals the TV screen is giving away, this son of Dubawi looks physically impressive. The way he lengthened away so easily from the field in the final furlong left me with my mouth a little wider open than usual, as well.

UAE Jewel is an April foal, so you would think age is on his side and he can only improve with any passion week. He certainly looks an exciting prospect and I can’t wait to see him next time out, most likely at Newmarket again, in the Newmarket Stakes on Guineas weekend, then over 10 furlongs.

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2.50 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 6 furlongs

This looks like an ultra-competitive race for a low-grade handicap on a random Thursday in Spring. You can make cases for a number of these, and as a result some are heavily overpriced in my book.

The most compelling case can be made for recent Irish recruit Dancing Mountain. If she’s in here to take her chances and not to run the mark down (drifting in the market) – which she may not need to I feel as she looks a strong contender already – then, from a good draw, she can outrun his massive price tag.

Dancing Mountain will have her second start in the UK since moving from Johnny Murtagh to the Roger Fell yard. Her debut run off a break at Newcastle wasn’t anything the shout about; if anything it served as a pipe opener.

However, now down to a handicap mark of 60, judged by juvenile form in Ireland, and the fact she’s an April foal, I think there is potential upside. She won a competitive Naas handicap over 5.5f last autumn, running to a TS rating of 61 that day.

Subsequent performances are rated well in my book, as Dancing Mountain’s 5th and 4th in her next two starts at Fairyhouse and Cork look pretty decent form, given she is now rated 8lb lower as well.

Selection:
10pts win – Dancing Mountain @ 28/1 MB

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3.25 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6 furlongs

The draw isn’t ideal, nonetheless Paddy Power looks supremely well handicapped on past form. He will not even at his best to be highly competitive, given the 6-year-old is now down a mark of 75, which was the lowest mark he’s won off throughout his career.

The gelding won a competitive York handicap off 5lb higher last summer and was an excellent 4th in a hot class 2 Handicap over course and distance when having to overcome a less than ideal draw also.

I like the fact Paddy Power already has a run under his belt this season, albeit on the All-Weather. He should strip fit and ready for a big run today, and has shown in the past to have sufficient gate speed to find himself in a good spot.

Selection:
10pts win – Paddy Power @ 5/1 Coral

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5.45 Ripon: Class 4 Apprentice Handicap, 5f

Ideal conditions for front-running Bowson Fred who also has a good draw to content with most likely. He’s also dropped to a dangerous mark – even though not quite the force of the past – last season the 7-year-old still managed to run to a TS rating of 86, backing it up with another 78 performance later the year.

A recent runner-up performance on the All-Weather, followed by a wind OP, should set Bowson Fred up for a big run today. He’s got a valuable 3lb claimer on board as well – an advantage that Josh Quinn has already ridden the gelding in the last handful of starts.

Selection:
10pts win – Bowson Fred @ 6/1 MB

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Wednesday Selections: April, 17th 2019

Balty Boys

Craven Stakes Day. Excellent racing at HQ today, as was the case yesterday as well. Qabala was impressive the way she won the Nell Qwyn Stakes. She looks like a horse ready-made for the Rowley Mile.

But the biggest lasting impressing was created in the opening maiden that saw Maqsad and Twist’n Shake fight out a dramatic battle to the line, as well as finishing a long way before the rest. Both fillies look exciting prospects for the season ahead.

Betting wise, I’m not really interested in Newmarket today. But Beverly offers an intriguing card, if not quite the same quality. The handicaps are interesting puzzles to solve for those who are into that sort of thing.

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4.00 Beverly: Class 4 Handicap, 7.5f

This is a pretty competitive and open race but I feel my selection Jackamundo can have a big say if in it to win it. He’s a big drifter this morning which is a concern, though there are plenty of positives as well.

Jackamundo looks the type to improve as a 3-year-old after a fair juvenile campaign, culminating in victory on handicap debut. Visually it was quite an impressive performance when he showed adversity to find a way through the field and get his head in front late, but early enough to win by a quarter of a lengths.

Gelded over the winter, his seasonal comeback run at Musselburgh was fair when the market expected him to run really well, though excuses can be made for a 6th place finish in a race where things didn’t quite pan out for him.

The slightly further trip today is sure to suit, the fast ground appears ideal as well, though the draw isn’t ideal and whether his racing style suits Beverly remains to be seen. A mark off 72 is realistic and offers opportunity, on the other hand.

Selection:
10pts win – Jackamundo @ 18/1 MB

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5.10 Beverly: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

It still pains me thinking back to the 22nd February when Gendarme as my 25/1 selection was beaten by a nose on the line. Can he make amends as an equally whopping price today?

The 4-year-old gelding looks hopeless judged by an 11-0-1 record. But as mentioned back then, it still applies very much today:

the majority of his runs on the All-Weather over the winter were quite promising, as he wasn’t too far beaten on most occasions, and those forms, to large extend have worked out well.

The most recent run at Lingfield, when attempting to follow up from his runner-up performance, albeit only finishing 7th and nearly seven lengths beaten, he was right there for a long time, setting a good pace from the front against hot opposition – for that class.

Given Gendarme he has ran to consistent RPR’s around his current mark and achieved a significantly higher career highest TS rating less than a year ago on turf, a return to this surface could bring out some improvement also. I feel there is a win just around the corner – hopefully today is the day.

Selection:
10pts win – Gendarme @ 21/1 MB

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6.10 Beverly: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5 furlongs

Still a maiden, though, Kylie Rules is one of the more unlucky ones. The filly has changed yards recently and goes to post first time for Ruth Carr today which is also her seasonal return.

The filly has dropped to a really handy mark if fit and ready to go today. She’s ran well fresh in the past, so that isn’t necessarily a worry. Kylie Rules also achieved a TS rating of 72 and RPR of 72 last season, suggesting a mark of 60 is well within her realms.

Her career-best came over the 8.5f trip last season at Hamilton – albeit on soft ground, though she ran perfectly fine on much fast ground as well. This looks like an ideal opportunity today to finally get off the mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Kylie Rules @ 10/1 PP

Sunday Selections: August, 26th 2018

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3.15 Beverley: Class 3 Nursery, 5f

The short priced favourite is a foolish price in this rather competitive nursery in my mind. Most importantly, that leaves my selection Snazzy seemingly undervalued in the market.

This filly won – arguably a not overly strong race, granted – very impressively on debut earlier this year at Newcastle overcoming all sorts of trouble. Subsequently placed in Listed company, she was found out for class stepping up to Group 2 class at Royal Ascot.

But, despite not coming too close to win, Snazzy ran extremely well in defeat in two subsequent starts when things didn’t quite went her way in highly competitive events that have worked out well form wise in the meantime.

A drop to the minimum trip should work in her favour and with first time visor applied from a good draw I would expect her to go forward here.

Selection:
10pts win – Snazzy @ 10/3 PP

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4.25 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f 

I was keen on Ghazan on handicap debut back in May after the colt showed plenty of promise in three juvenile starts, particularly the final run in 2017 looked excellent form.

From a wide draw he had a lot to do at Leicester on what was his seasonal reappearance and always travelling wide as a consequence didn’t make it an easy task. After coming briefly off the bridle over 4f out a shake of the reign saw Ghazan travelling notably strongest of all until nearly 2f out when he then tired and wasn’t given a hard time.

That form has worked out quite well in the meantime, so the fact Ghazan was able to travell all over that sort of field is encouraging as I felt beforehand he might have been underestimated by an opening 75 mark.

He’s on 74 today, drops a bit in trip. That in combination with the rain arriving should suit him well. Hanagan is in the saddle, a bonus. Question remains why the absence since May. If he’s fit and well then Ghazan should have a big chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ghazan @ 11/2 PP

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5.20 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A pretty consistent runner. albeit on the go for a long time, Roundabout Magic is one who more often than not gives you a good run for your money. He is also one who finds trouble on a regular basis.

So happened a week ago at Windsor. He travelled strongly and seemed to come with a big run when badly hampered 2f out.

He’s already won this year and was multiple times placed plus ran a career high time speed rating of 67. This small field should suit, if the pace is on.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 6/1 VC

Hit It A Bomb Returns

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Finally we have the chance to see Hit It A Bomb hitting the race track as a three year old.! The most impressive winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – that’s now almost ten months ago – had plenty of problems early on this season and missed several assignments.

But Aiden O’Brien said the son of War Front is ready to go today to start of his campaign in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown.

Question mark are all over the place though: did he train on? Has he retained his brilliant turn of foot despite the long lay-off? Is he fit enough to beat a more or less competitive, albeit given his own potential class, rather ordinary looking bunch of mostly well seasoned horses?

Here’s hoping. Hit It A Bomb produced one of the most memorable performances of recent time when landing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – from the widest draw having to finish from an impossible position turning for home…. it was spectacular!

I suspect there is plenty enough left to work on for this very first step back into racing action today; as always with O’Brien horses, bigger targets loom large.

All I want to see today is him having trained on, finishing well, without getting a hard race. Victory is not necessarily the main objective here.

That obviously opens the door for someone else to step up and land a nice paycheck. Custom Cut, given he’s only 2lb rated below Hit It A Bomb, looks most likely do be the one benefiting from a potential lack of fitness of the favourite.

He hasn’t really show all that much this season though, certainly he’s not in the same form as all the years before, so whether he can still run to his current rating of 114 is questionable.

It’s not a betting race for me at all, but Jim Bolger can have horses ready after a break, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tribal Beat, last years second in the Killavullan Stakes, to run a big race here.

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Thursday Selections:

Two winners yesterday. Those were balsam for the ill-treated betting soul. Northern Thunder made most of a lack of pace in his race at Kempton and held on gamely, whereas it seemed the penny dropped for Sea The Stars son Space Mountain at Beverly.

1.50 Beverly: Street Jazz @ 11/1 Skybet
3.40 Salisbury: Bess of Hardwick @ 4/1 Ladbrokes