Tag Archives: November

Monday Selections: November, 12th 2018

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1.05 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Low draw is usually preferred here; from those individuals only Optimickstickhill makes appeal, though the minimum trip might be too sharp.

Despite drawn much wider than usual, Fareeq looks well handicapped on his return to Southwell second up from a break. He missed the break on his return at Chelmsford, so that run off  145-day lay-off is excused.

He finished a creditable CD runner-up when last seen here; the form looks strong as the winner went on to win two more races. That effort came off a 4lb higher mark than Fareeq’s last winning mark as he landed a CD race off 60 back in April.

Down in class 6, over a seemingly perfect course and distance off mark he looks well capable of – it should give Fareeq a good chance to overcome the disadvantage of the wide draw in a poor race.

Selection:
10pts win – Fareeq @ 5/1 WH

…..

2.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6 furlongs

The grey veteran Lucky Beggar has been in fair form on turf in recent weeks, without threatening the judge, though, to be fair. However a return to Southwell’s fibresrand over the 6f trip is quite interesting, as it comes with a chunky drop in the mark and drop in class as well.

When last seen over this CD back in August – only his second ever Southwell start, despite a less than ideal start, he ran on very strongly from the middle of the pack in a very hot race, finishing a clear third. The winner to some extend, the runner-up very much so, having franked the form in the meantime.

Lucky Beggar’s effort that day came in higher grade and off a 7lb higher mark than his current one. He will be in with a big shout here, if he can overcome the draw. No doubt, drawn in 11 isn’t ideal; but then that is also reflected in the price, which still undervalues the eight-year old’s chances.

Selection:
10pts win – Lucky Beggar @ 7/1 Sky

Saturday Selections: November, 10th 2018

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3.15 Doncaster: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

The November Handicap, one final big one in the soon to be closed chapter that was the 2018 flat season.

It feels like nearly everything Charlie Appleby touches turns to gold these days. Can he wrap up this superb week for him with a success here? I certainly think so! His inmate Wolf Country comes here relatively fresh compared to most others after a recent pleasing return to the track.

That was last month at Goodwood in a competitive race – the form has already started to work out well. Wolf Country was a fine runner-up, leading for most parts of the race. It has to be said he was advantaged by the fact that a he wasn’t hampered by a fallen horse behind him. Most of the field was. So the performance is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Still, he travelled well, set a good pace and looked comfortable in atrocious conditions, leaving his only other UK start in 2018 well behind, when he last of 15 at Newmarket in May.

His only other piece of form this year came at Meydan. A fine 4th place finish in a pretty strong handicap – he was leading until 300m out against Group class performers.

Things haven’t quite gone the way conditions would surely have hoped for Wolf Country. A Listed winner at three, a creditable and not far beaten 5th in the Dante – he is a talented lad and since being gelded those two of three runs have been very promising.

A mark off 98 gives him a fair chance here today – he could be a better than that. The soft ground conditions are certainly a positive. The wide draw not necessarily for a front-runner. Regardless, I have him down as the favourite here if he can improve from his recent comeback run.

Selection:
10pts win – Wolf Country @ 8.8/1 MB

Wednesday Selections: November, 7th 2018

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WOW! What more can you say??? Quite a bit, actually! So, a few more words on Tuesdays Melbourne Cup: a tremendous victory for Cross Counter. The three-year old came from last to first, producing a tremendous turn of foot at the end of a 3.200 meter long race!

I felt his chances were gone right after the start as Kerrin McEvoy steered his mount to the back of the field – which in hindsight seems a smart move, given the wide draw and the way things worked out as the gates crashed open didn’t really allow him to do anything else that wouldn’t have been even more detrimental to his chances; i.e. rushing forward.

In my race preview I hoped things would pan out slightly different regarding the early parts of the race. Regardless, I couldn’t have been happier with the eventual outcome of the race!

As for the second year running I’ve made a winning selection for the Melbourne Cup – granted, neither last year with Rekindling, nor this year with Cross Counter were those selections particularly thought-provoking.

Let’s be honest: a classy 3yo, with good chances to stay the trip, having ideal ground conditions and a low weight to carry…. the type of race the Melbourne Cup in essence is these days, it wasn’t exactly rocked science to select Cross Counter.

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2.50 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Bread and butter today: Show Palace is the one I want to be with. He has dropped to a tasty mark, having produced big performances off much higher ratings in the past, achieving consistently high time speed ratings as well.

Clearly he needs the right conditions: with rain falling, the going may not turn quite soft enough. Nonetheless, good to soft should be okay, even more so off his 74 handicap mark. Hes also in fine order, judged on his latest effort over CD.

He was not ideally positioned on the inside rail, far away from the pace. He finished best of his group, nonetheless – a 5th place that looks good given the form already works out well.

Selection:
10pts win – Show Palace @ 6/1 MB

Thursday Selections: November, 1st 2018

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8.45 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The trip may not be ideal on paper, but in reality the majority of 6f starts for Lord Of The Glen to date can be discounted. I think, with given conditions today, he deserves another chance to stretch out over this trip.

The 3-year-old gelding drops nicely in his mark as well as quite significantly in grade, given only two starts back he was a fair 4th in a hot class 3 contest at Wolverhampton over the minimum trip.

To some extend it can be argued he followed up on that with another courageous display last time out at Newcastle. He was hampered right after the start, and was then on the wrong end of the field and pace, clearly in a disadvantaged position.

Lord Of The Glen still finished quite well, clocking the fastest sectional for the final furlong. He drops another pound in the mark, in combination with the lower grade and a perfect draw, he should run well tonight.

Selection:
10pts win – Lord Of The Glen @ 7/1 MB