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Betting

Preview: Grand National 2023

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Can Noble Yeats “do a Tiger Roll”? Here’s a look at the main contenders and my attempt at solving the puzzle that is the 175th annual running of the Grand National.

A full field of 40 horses go to post with weights ranging from 11-12 to 10-2. It’s still a puzzle to solve, though, perhaps less the lottery and unpredictable race it was in the past.

Less difficult fences to jump, less carnage, less surprises. Class horses with big weights can win. The race looks completely different to those editions of half a century ago.

Last night I watched the wonderful DVD “12 Greatest Ever Grand Nationals” – great trip down the memory lane, but the race was a different kind of a beast compared to what it is these days.

The modern version of the Grand National is about class. Horses can certainly win with 11 stone plus on their back. We’ve seen it a number of times in more recent times.

Stamina is key, as a race over the marathon distance of 4m 2½f should be. Perhaps that makes it somewhat less a test of pure jumping ability. Personally I’m okay with this fact if it goes along with a safer race for horse and rider.

2023 Grand National Contenders

Favourite Corach Rambler is as short as 6/1 in the betting. There is certainly a form of recency bias included after his spectacular victory at the Cheltenham Festival.

Corach Rambler is a tricky sort, though. He needs to be ridden in a certain way and will require all the luck in the world to get a clear run from the back of the field.

It’ll require a lot of faith to back him at this rather skinny price. It sure is going to be the most spectacular victory should he pick his way through the field to win the Grand National.

Personally I find it hard to see how there could be any juice left in his price, though. There is no chance that I could make him a shorter price in my book. In fact, he’s too short, in my view.

Delta Work is the second choice in the market. He won the Cross-Country at the Festival for the second year running. He looked as good as ever when he beat well fancied stable mate Galvin last month.

He was third in the Grand National last year but also 22 lengths beaten. Perhaps a different ride could change his fortunes?

Possibly. Nonetheless, I find it hard to see how he could improve on that run twelve months later. He’s a well-exposed 10-year-old. One pound lower than last year won’t make a difference – a mark of 159 looks far from a giveaway.

Noble Yeats was a surprise winner last year. A surprise on the day more so for the general public than connections. They knew they had a tremendously well-handicapped horse on their hands. We know that by now as well.

He’s a classy individual and judged on his Gold Cup run – arguably the strongest performance by any horse in this years Grand National field – must be considered a prime contender once more, even off a much higher mark.

Tiger Roll proved you can win back-to-back and big weights aren’t a hindrance to winning the modern Grand National, either. Noble Yeats has to overcome a 19lb higher mark than twelve month ago, though.

That seems fair given the way he took his form to a new level this season, including that excellent 4th place finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But that extra weight is a game changer, I firmly believe.

Tiger Roll only had to content with an additional 9lbs when winning back-to-back. Noble Yeats, perhaps a better horse right now than Tiger Roll was when winning his second National, doesn’t appear to be necessarily unfairly handicapped. At the same time I fear this weight is too much even for the classy Noble Yeats.

If talking about Noble Yeats one has to mention last years runner-up Any Second. He was less than three lengths beaten and ran a huge race in defeat.

He’s arguably unlucky not to have won a Grand National by now, after a superb, and somewhat unlucky 3rd place two years ago.

He’s another year older. This is his third attempt and he’s 8lb higher than last year, 15lb higher than 2021. His preparation has been spot on and he should be right there when it matters, but anything better than finishing in the placings is hard to imagine.

Willie Mullins sends out a small army. His best shot – judged purely on odds – seems Gaillard Du Mesnil who won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month.

Perhaps he was a bit fortunate because he benefited in no uncertain terms from the fall of a threatening rival. That begs the question: would he be as short in the betting if he’d finished runner-up that day?

I think he’s a few points too short, and no value to back in this race. Although he should stay, and that may allow him to be right there when it matters most.

The other well fancied Willie Mullins runner is Mr Incredible. He seems to catch a bit of momentum in the betting. He’s a quite lightly raced 7-year-old with an abundance of improvement left over staying trips, I believe.

He ran on for third place in the Kim Muir last month and may have finished closer if not for making a huge mistake at the last fence that cost him vital momentum.

He was a good second in a hot Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Warwick prior as well. On both forms he looks at the very least fairly weighted on handicapping terms.

He strikes me as one who had a lovely preparation for the race with a mark that has been somewhat protected this season as he ran well without showing all his cards, possibly.

There is every chance he can improve. If he does indeed, he would be a well-handicapped horse. Obviously, with Mr Incredible, talent is only one side of the coin.

He’s a seriously tricky sort and will need quite a bit of luck, given he is likely to race in rear of the field. That’s the reason why there are still big prices available to back him, especially on the Exchanges. But if he gets a clear run I can see him go all the way.

Longhouse Poet was my fancy twelve months ago. He probably did too much too soon, chasing a pretty hot pace, before tiering badly for 6th place finish, 34 lengths behind the winner.

He’s a fair shot once again off a near similar mark, I reckon. Possibly ridden with a little bit more restraint this time, he should get home better. I still can’t quite shake the impression of how badly he faded last year, though.

Hennessy winner Le Milos looks intriguing off only 6lb higher than when he landed the big handicap at Newbury in November. He travelled strongly throughout the race, made lovely progress, before hitting the front in the home straight and fought gutsily to the line.

He had a lovely prep run in early March at Kelso in the meantime, most likely not fully tuned up and not given the best of rides. There were plenty of positives to take away from that reapperance, nonetheless.

Clearly the 8-year-old is still on the up and a stayer of great potential after only ten runs over fences, and three this season. In my view he looks like an ideal National horse.

He should have a prime chance. He’s a good jumper, can hold his position well and most likely has the stamina required for the National.

Galvin was always thought of as a National horse more so than one who wins Gold Cups. Therefore, he probably outran expectations somewhat when winning the Savills Chase and finished a fine 4th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup last year.

He’s not been the same horse this season. Apparently he had a back issue in preparation for the Cross-Country Chase; he still finished a strong runner-up behind stable mate Delta Work last month.

I fancied him there, but off a 166 rating, the same as Noble Yeats, I struggle to see how he can be handicapped to win. You would have to believe he’s as good a horse as Noble Yeats is at this moment in time.

Would Galvin have finished 4th in the Gold Cup this year? Most definitely not. He was 10/3 for the Savills Chase this season, when he finished second last, a long way beaten. He’s not the same horse this season as he was the season before.

Highly talented 7-yeaer-old Capodanno is an interesting runner. He’s got the class and is lightly raced. He was only seen once this season, since winning the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown a year ago. That’s far from ideal preparation and off-putting.

Sam Thomas saddles Our Power. A seriously progressive horse. Unbeaten this season in two runs. On a really fair mark. If he can extend to the National trip he’ll be a huge runner. But a son of Power – who I have seen myself at the Curragh win a National Stakes and Guineas – stretches my imagination to see how he could stay the distance.

2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier could have the required stamina and class. He finished a promising runner-up in the Bobbyjo Chase in February. His jumping can be a bit hit and miss, but he could be dangerous off 147 if he finds a good rhythm.

If you ignore The Big Breakaway’s poor showing at Cheltenham last month, one could make a solid argument for him to have the capabilities to outrun his big price tag.

He’s a strong stayer, was an excellent second in the Welsh National this season and may find back to his best with blinkers fitted.

I wouldn’t rule out Coko Beach to run well, either. He’s in good nick after landing a Grand National Trial in February and ran well for a long time in the Grand National last year. Ultimately he did way too much in front and didn’t get home.

If he can race with a little more restraint this time, he’s not without a chance to finish in the placings.

The Big Dog is a strong stayer and not out of it, although I feel he’s too high in the mark to be considered a contender for victory.

Same could be said about Lifetime Ambition, who’s got to content with a 8lb higher mark than in the Troytown Chase back in November, where he finished a fine runner-up behind The Big Dog, following on from a solid 4th in the Sefton over the National fences.

Unexposed Ain’t That A Shame looks to have been protected all season. he was a tough runner-up in the Munster National behind The Big Dog back in October. Only seen twice since then, one has to trust his fitness and stamina.

From the bigger prices Recite A Prayer is one who may outrun his odds. Second in the Kerry National at the beginning of the season; a Killarney National winner last year. He stays well but hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Eva’s Oskar has stamina in abundance, ultimately is not classy enough you would think, but is also one of the more realistic bigger prices to potentially hit the frame.

Summary:

The 2023 Grand National appears to be a wide open affair. Would Noble Yeats win again he’d be one of the all-time greats in my view. He looks all class and should run a huge race once again.

Yet, from a betting perspective I’ll can’t get passed the credentials Le Milos brings to the table.

He simply looks the ideal National horse to me. He’s had a lovely preparation. Showed strong form this season. Is still progressive and possibly better handicapped than he should.

He also remains underappreciated in the betting. He beat Corach Rambler comprehensively this season, yet is a multiple times the price of the favourite.

He receives 14lb from Noble Yeats. Possibly fair on a variety on ratings if purely judged on actual form. What may give him the edge, though: he’s a progressive stayer who continues to improve..

At the same time I can’t leave out Mr Incredible. He needs luck, and may be too far off the pace, ultimately. On the other hand he’s hugely talented and weighted to go seriously close – if things go well.

He’s a quirky sort, but if he gets a clear run he’ll look a huge price come the end of the race. This progressive and lightly raced individual impressed in the Kim Muir when last seen and has plenty of upside at this stage of his career.

6pts win – Le Milos @ 17/1
4pts win – Mr Incredible @ 23/1
(SM/MB)

Betting

Friday Selections: 17th March 2023

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Two winners from three selections on Thursday – and the third beaten by a head! It could have been the sweetest of hat-tricks.

No complaints. Saisons D’Or went off a lot shorter than the price I got…. the money was on and he clearly is in peak form the way he fought back for a seriously game victory at Southwell.

Get Stuck In got the pretty easy run from the front, as hoped, and had too much in hand. It’s also fair to say Leabaland had a few pounds in hand but Seamie Heffernan went pretty hard early on, and that perhaps was the reason getting beaten in the dying strides.

Who am I to complain, though? Am not. Any day with two winners is a brilliant day in my book. It gets March firmly back into the green, as it has been 5 winners to date for the month, and we’re only halfway through it.

By my own calculation, one more solid priced winner will solidify a healthy profit. I wouldn’t mind it this one comes today, in the big race…

………

3.30 Cheltenham: Grade 1 Gold Cup, 3m2½f

The blue ribband of jump racing has been kind to me, betting wise. This year, though, shapes like a hot, and tricky edition.

It stems from the fact that half the field appear on more or less the same good level of form. While a few select have clear standout form, but serious questions to answer.

The one on many lips, is Galopin Des Champs. The favourite, and a short price for a horse with stamina to prove.

No doubt, an incredibly talented individual; unbeaten in seven of his last eight starts; and that one blip, was desperately unlucky in the Turners when he seemed to have the race won, if not for falling at the last.

This season he’s a much better settled horse, jumps really well and won the John Durkan as well as the Irish Gold Cup by a combined 21 lengths!

But at the current price I have to take him. There are valid concerns over his stamina, especially on deep ground. The Irish Gold Cup proved little. He sprinted away from Stattler in a test of speed more than anything. He has won on proper soft ground but is it his preferred going? I doubt it.

Stable mate Stattler is an intriguing contender. Available at 20/1+ on the exchanges; he’s a serious contender to run late into the placings, I believe. He’s not shown quite enough on ratings, to suggest he’s truly a Gold Cup winner. But the deep ground will help to make it stamina test, which could suit.

Minella Indo ran a huge race in second place last year. He hit the front too soon, and had nothing more to give once A Plus Tard sprinted past him. But it was a strong performance, good enough in other years to win a Gold Cup, I believe.

He looked good on his return at Tramore in early January. We haven’t seen him since, though. The vibes from the yard are bullish, but I see it as a negative that he didn’t go Leopardstown as he did the last two years when he won- and finished runner-up in the Gold Cup.

Grand National hero Noble Yeats is rightly in the mix. The emphasis on stamina will be to his advantage. I’m not sure whether he’s truly good enough to win a Gold Cup, though.

Protektorat and Royal Pagaille have shouts to run into the placings on their best form. Ahoy Senor with a clear round of jumping could be dangerous. But there is no question the gap to the the top three in the betting market is real.

I mentioned Galopin Des Champs before and the fact I’m happy to take him on. I’d be certain he wouldn’t be A Plus Tard, if the impressive 2022 Gold Cup winner would return to the same level as twelve month ago.

Clearly his prospects have improved since DeBromehead yard looks in good health this week. You would hope whatever problems materialised at Haydock about half a year ago now, and the issues at Leopardstown, are well and truly fixed.

It’s shame we haven’t seen him since. No matter what, this can’t have been an ideal preparation for the biggest race of the year. He’s a year older, too; having been at the Festival numerous times before, how much more is left in the tank?

I can take the leap of faith required to back A Plus Tard; even though I do so last year and those memories are still vivid.

But there is no question in mind the only horse I can back at this stage is Bravemansgame. If I would have come to this conclusion earlier than this week I could have gotten bigger prices. But I still think he’s overpriced.

Ever since that impressive King George victory was I contemplating for and against Bravemansgame’s prospects to stay up the Hill to win a Gold Cup.

The positives outweigh the negatives ultimately, though.

Bravemansgame won that day at Kempton in the most impressive style. He powered home, staying on strongly, found more and more for pressure, when everyone else fell away.

He gave ground away all the time – perhaps by design. Jumped fluently, travelled powerfully for a long time, and was brave and gutsy; a bit flat footed around the final bend, he kept going, came back on the bridle and outbattled his rivals.

Yes, perhaps, one could argue, the winning margin was flattered by L’Homme Presse who unseated his rider at the last. But he had the race won by then, I firmly believe, in any case.

That performance is by far the strongest this season, on all sorts of ratings. Whether Bravemansgame can run to the same level of form over this extreme test of stamina on deep ground is the key question.

His best form comes on flatter, galloping tracks. His sole visit to Cheltenham ended in heavy defeat. Paul Nicholls is adamant that Bravemansgame is a different, stronger, more mature horse these days, though.

Therefore, he deserves his chance to go for a Gold Cup. He seems to posesses the right tools to cope with the demands of the race. But there is only one way to find out whether he truly has got it to win the Gold Cup. At given prices my money is riding on him.

10pts win – Bravemansgame @ 13/2

Track Report

Tramore Racecourse: An Irish Racing Pearl

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A friendly track with plenty of charm, fine facilities and stunning panoramic views of the Waterford coastline – Tramore is a place where racing feels celebrated.

It’s certainly a place steeped in history: racing at Tramore dates back to the 19th century – at least. While racing in the existing location has taken place since 1912.

History is in the air and you can feel it, smell and hear it when approaching the entrance to the track, with the spectacular coastline standing tall in the background. This isn’t the shiny new Curragh or a renovated Leopardstown. Racing at Tramore feels raw and real.

No surprise, you can sense the age of the place everywhere you go but that doesn’t distract from the fact that the facilities are well maintained. Yes, some wear and tear is visible, which only adds to the charm of the place, though.

The layout of the actual racetrack is interesting. This is a tight, roller-coaster like 7 furlong circuit. It’s up and down, ever turning and I can see how some horses love it while others won’t travel a yard.

This is perfect from a racegoers perspective because you are able watch the horses pretty much the entire race. No big screen needed. You can get a superb look of how the race develops especially once the field races down the hill on the far end of the track before turning for home.

As for filling the empty stomach or quenching the thirst: Tramore simply gets it right, There is lovely bar for pints from the tab. Enough space to sit with screens to follow the racing.

Food options are varied thanks to a fine bistro that offers a variety of fresh food options. There is also a dedicated fish and ship shop at the track. Prices are fair, taking into considerations we’re on a racecourse. It was €15 to get in, a coffee €2.50 and the food is reasonably priced.

Getting around is easy. Parade ring, stands, betting ring and all the other facilities are in close proximity. Despite the age of the racecourse everything here is clean, tidy and as well maintained as can be. Also a big shoutout to all the staff. Every single one had a smile on their face.

A highlight of Tramore’s location is the spectacular scenic view you can get from the parade ring toward the Waterford coastline. You can see the waves crashing on the beach in the background and smell the salt in the air.

The racing on the day of my visit wasn’t spectacular. Maiden Hurdles, low-grade Handicap Chases and a bumper – but it’s the atmosphere that matters. And from that perspective it was a stellar day.

A bumper crowd in attendance marveled in the victories of household names Rachel Blackmore and Paul Townend. Particularly Blackmore’s winning rides were popular with the local crowd.

Perhaps the highlight of the day was the Champions Parade of Cheltenham heroes Honeysuckle – the two-time Champion Hurdle winner, Energumene – the reigning Champion Chaser, and A Plus Tard – the 2022 Gold Cup winner.

A Plus Tard

I wasn’t sure what to expect when heading for County Waterford. In any case: all expectations where certainly exceeded. Tramore Racecourse is a stunning place to go racing. I loved every minute. It’s pushing hard to become my favourite track in Ireland, I must admit.

The combination of coziness, rural charm and history with scenic views, fine facilities and a lovely atmosphere make this a place where the sport of horse racing feels celebrated.

All Photos © Florian Christoph

Grand National

Grand National Recap

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The Grand National is still THE race. Whatever the talk of the race having become a “glorified Cross-Country Chase”, the National continues to dominate headlines and has people talking in positive terms about racing.

Perhaps it isn’t the race it used to be. Perhaps it’s not quite the same challenge for horse and rider as it used to be. Perhaps for some people it’s not the unique spectacle it once was. Doesn’t matter. Because it’s still the biggest race in the calendar.

Why? People talk about it. People who’d have no clue what the Cheltenham Gold Cup is. Mainstream media is talking about. Mostly in positive terms. This is racings shopping window. The race that proves the sports relevance to a wider public.

Nothing of that concerns pure racing fans. But it concerns the long-term health and future of the sport.

Therefore a Grand National that bridges the gap between safety and spectacle can continue to write great stories that capture the imagination of racing fans and people outside the bubble in equal terms – as opposed to stories about fatality numbers. This is crucial to any survival of the race and the sport of jump racing.

It’s surprises me again and again how many people inside the industry don’t grasp this correlation.

As for positive stories: the 2022 edition didn’t disappoint. All horses were reported to be back in their stables post-race. Zero fatalities is a win for the safety and for the sport. And a loss for the radical animal welfare brigade who had their social media campaigns ready to launch wit the click of a button.

The story of the race, though, is of course the fairytale victory of Nobel Yeats. The first 7-year-old to win the national since 1940. A rather inexperienced horse with only seven chase runs up until today. He went jumping a hurdle under rules only 13 months ago. This was a 50/1 shot, one who preview articles awarded a 1* star rating out of five possible – basically a no-hoper.

And there’s the rider. Sam Waley-Cohen. An amateur. A hugely successful one, mind. Who announced his retirement before the race. Cohen’s final ride and he finishes his career with a Grand National! Fairytale stuff. Stories only the National can write. Or at least the one race where those stories resonate outside of the racing world, too.

On a personal note: looking back at my shortlist of ten horses and comparing with the eventual first ten horses home I’ll give myself a pad on the back for not having been too widely off the mark:

1st: Noble Yeats
2nd: Any Second Now
3rd: Delta Work
4th: Santini
5th: Fiddlerontheroof
6th: Longhouse Poet
7th: Freewheelin’ Dylan
8th: Coko Beach
9th: Escaria Ten
10th: Romain De Senam

Truth being told, though, I wouldn’t have given the winner Noble Yeats neither and Santini – despite all his former class – nor Romain De Senam any chance whatsoever to win or even finish close to the placings.

My two selections Fiddlerontheroof finished 5th and Longhouse Poet 6th. These where fine, fine runs. Longhouse Poet appeared a bit more dangerous for most parts of the race. Ultimately both horses didn’t quite get home in the end.

No shame in that. I’ll got great runs for my money. And the horses have done themselves proud. If I’d have been an each-way player they would have paid handsomely for their placings. I am not, of course.

What matters to me, though, is I that feel correct in my assessment that prices around 20’s where underestimating their chances, hence they where value odds – and the fact both went off a good deal shorter confirmed the notion.

In conclusion I can only say I seriously enjoyed this years Grand National. Great field, great race, great performances from horses and jockeys, everyone’s home safe and we got a fairytale winner. What’s not to like?

Edit: It has just emerged that #21 Discorama has sadly been lost post-race. He was sensibly pulled when things went wrong during the race but couldn’t be saved. Devastating news.

Betting

Cheltenham Festival 2020 – Wednesday Preview

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DSC_0723

A winner?! A feeling I forget exist: enjoying one of my selections crossing the line in first.

I can’t quite remember the last time this happened – it’s been a while – even though it looked like coming when Abacadabras traveled like a dream through the Supreme, despite a slightly awkward start, and getting hampered by a faller, he looked like the winner turning for home…. only to be denied on the line. Of course!

Thankfully Honeysuckle ended my incredibly brutal losing run, beating Benie Des Dieux in a brilliant finish. It was a superb ride by Rachel Blackmore, who continues to prove female jockeys certainly can be at the very top of the game.

I could do a with a few more winners now. Have a lot of catching up to do in order to get 2020 back into the green. The second day of the Festival is a tasty one, although again a tricky puzzle to solve as usual. All selections are big prices which increased the chance for a blank day on the winners front.

………..

1.30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, 2m 5f

On paper Envoy Allen looks the banker of the day. He may well be. If he can continue to improve he’s hard to beat. Will he, though?

You can argue he didn’t have to be pushed to the limits in his last two starts. There is a good chance he can pull out more. At the same time, at least on the rating front, Envoy Allen is good but not overwhelmingly brilliant. RPR’s and TS ratings are to be taken with a pinch of salt in jump racing, yet have some merit.

On that front, second favourite Sporting John is a highly intriguing rival. All the time improving, his Kempton performance was simply stunning and looks excellent on the rating front too. Unfortunately I am too late to the party: the juice is out of the price. Factoring in his general inexperience, having never raced on these terms, I have to leave him alone.

Brings to my selection: a rare each-way one: Easywork appears to be a massive price. I believe he’s harshly judged by his runner-up effort – albeit a long way beaten – behind Asterion Forlonge, who didn’t run too badly in a super competitive Supreme today btw..

Relativally decent ground over two miles was clearly against Easywork that day. Stepping up to 2m 4f with plenty of juice in the ground is much more to his liking. He showed his talent already this season winning three on the bounce, in pretty good style, all of these victories came on soft or heavy going.

Selection:
5pts e/w – Easywork @ 22/1 WH

………

2.10 RSA Chase, 3m½f

What a competitive renewal: the betting says it all with four horses heading the market with less than two points between them. I personally think there a few behind them that can’t be discounted either. Certainly form wise the first five, six in the market are rather closely matched anyway.

Certainy overpriced is Battleoverdoyen. He probably would right in the mix at the top of the market if not for an usually poor showing in Flogas at Leopardstown. He was effectively beaten before falling at the last.

That’s a big question mark obviously. He was apparently pretty sore and 50/50 running at the Festival, only a fortnight ago. That’s a reflection of his price tag.

Nonetheless, even taking that into account, he remains an exciting prospect. Battleoverdoyen was classy hurdler, although twelve month ago was disappointingly pulled up in the Ballymore.

The big, rangy gelding was always a chaser in the making. And he took well to fences, winning three on the trot, including a small-field Grade 1 over Christmas.

Three miles om soft ground won’t be a problem. The fact Battleoverdoyen usually travels strongly and is a good jumper will count for a lot in what could well turn out to be a war of attrition. That sort of race could easily put Copperhead at an advantage, who has been quite impressive as well, and would be my most likely winner.

At given odds, even with the risk of the recent fall attached, Battleoverdoyen is clearly one who’s much bigger than he should be.

Selection:
10pts win – Battleoverdoyen @ 14.5/1 MB

……..

2.50 Coral Cup, 2m 5f

In a tricky affair where in-running luck will play a role Protektorat stands out to me. His style of running, and the fact he can b a quirky sort, adds to the risk of needing things to fall right. On the other hand he ticks a lot of boxes which outweigh the risk given the price.

The five-year-old is an improving individual, having ran well here at Cheltenham already, will enjoy the ground and will stay the trip. He ran with plenty of credit finishing third under a penalty when last seen here, following from a Listed victory at this venue, if not for a demotion post race.

A mark of 144 gives him a really nice weight in this contest where few make appeal on that front. French bred with speed – and Protektorat has shown to have a bit of speed as well as staying ability – tend to do well in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – Protektorat @ 16.5/1 MB

………..

3.30 Champion Chase, 2m

With absence of Altior this race is wide open, despite two seemingly clear horses leading the market. There is little in the betting between Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi, even though personally the potential improvement that can still come from Willie Mullins’s charge would sway me to believe he is the one to beat today.

Nonetheless this race is wide open for the fact that both these star names have actually never ran to speed figures that are mind blowing. Not yet at least. That is in contrast to Altior or other top class Champion Chasers of the past. Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi may still be the best of the rest today and for that reason land a Champion Chase, but I firmly believe they are not as much clear of the other four runners.

The two I think have a chance to get much closer than there odds suggest are the runner-up and third of the 2019 Champion Chase.

Look back at the reply of what as hugely exciting race, that produced strong ratings and see how both Politologue and Sceau Royal had the almighty Altior off the bridle and hard working two from home. In fact Sceau Royal traveled much the best!

This was a career best performance for both horses. However, they have proven in the past – at leas on ratings – to be on par with the two market principles. Both are proven in Championship races.

Sceau Royal was beaten by DDS this season, however that was on his seasonal reappearance. In his next two starts he has shown himself in good nick, including a fine second behind Altior in the Game Spirit Chase. He’s likely to run his race today, and if he does run to form then he’s a much better chance than 25/1.

Politologue has already been beaten twice by DDS this season. He was a close enough runner-up on his comeback run but bitterly disappointing in the Tingle Creek. That wasn’t his true showing.

He will need to bounce back and there is risk attached to a 9-year-old with so much racing under his belt already.If he can bounce back he’s in it with a fair shout, having run well at Cheltenham in the past.

Selection:
5pts win – Politologue @ 19/1 MB
5pts win – Sceau Royal @ 26/1 MB

……….

5.30 Champion Bumper, 2m½f

Willie Mullins could have another winner in this one with Appreciate It who is a rock solid favourite in my book. Nonetheless he is a short enough price to look what’s further down the market in what appears otherwise an open race.

Ask A Honey Bee is one that catches the eye with his three bumper wins, particularly as he defied a double-penalty when last seen! I also appreciate the fact the six-year-old has plenty of experience, as beside those 3 NHF races, he also has ample point-to-point experience.

Further to this Ask A Honey Bee clocked a solid topspeed figure on his penultimate run, which can’t be said for many in this field. He is a fine each/way shout.

Selection:
5pts e/w – Ask A Honey Bee @ 44/1 WH

Betting

Cheltenham Festival 2020 – Tuesday Preview

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The Festival

Here we are: Cheltenham 2020! The festival has been good to me over the last number of years. More of that this week please – I could do with a few positive results after a start to the year that can only be described in one word: catastrophic!

Day one looks pretty tricky, at the same time offers plenty of value in the market. Rain has soften the ground significantly and adds extra spice to open contests.

Unlike in previous years there are few red hot favourites, heading the betting at short odds. I can see some big prices making the frame – one of those winning for me would a unimaginable relieve as at this point I simply wonder if I ever will back a winner again?!

From a pure racing perspective the championship races are highly intriguing, more so by the lack of odds-on favourites. Although not a vintage year, the Champion Hurdle makes for a compelling puzzle to solve, whereas Supreme and Arkle shaping like unmissable contests with future starts in their respective divisions unleashed.

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1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, 2m½f

Highly competitive. Plenty of exciting novice hurdlers in the field. Usually a fast start to the Festival and the year: plenty of pace, crowd noise, nervousness among the jockeys.

I feel experience will count for a lot. Hence I like Abacadabras. Fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, he made a seamless transition to hurdles, having four already under his belt, winning a first Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas and only been beaten by sublime Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse.

He tends to travel well, has been here before, has proven to run fast, can jump straight and is tactically versatile, giving Davy Russell plenty of options.

Selection:
10pts win – Abacadabras @ 11/2 MB

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2.10 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase, 2m

The one completely forgotten here, particularly in the soft ground conditions, is Global Citizen. He’s been classy hurdler over two miles, which tends to be a good indicator for this race, and since switching to fences has left a poor start to his chasing career behind when winning impressively at Kempton last time.

That Grade 2 at Kempton looks useful form, but it’s more the way Global Citizen went over his business that is noteworthy. He was pretty keen, set a fast clip, jumped pretty well – much improved to his debut – and held off the advances of his rivals in fine style in the end, finding plenty when needed.

He’s got to bring this to Cheltenham and is unlikely to get an easy lead, however it’s his now proven ability to jump at speed that can be key in the Arkle.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Citizen @ 22.5/1 MB

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2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m 1f

Stamina is key in this race, so my eventual choice is a risk, but beside the favourite Vindication, who is, on the other hand a rather short price for a race like this, I struggle to identify many who are ahead of their respective handicap marks.

Who Dares Wins could be on his handicap debut, though. Whether he well and truly stays the distance, particularly on soft ground all the way up the hill remains to be seen. Fact he has been here before, ran well at two Festivals before, particularly in the Pertemps two years ago.

That day he lead the field to the final hurdle but faltered into finishing fifth eventually. That’s an obvious negative. On the other hand, Who Dares Wins potentially saw daylight a little bit too early, certainly compared to the winner and runner-up who were asked all questions a little bit later.

With that in mind, this performance also gives hope as Who Dares Wins is a little bit older now and has proven his ability to on the flat to stay marathon trips. He also could be rather well handicapped on his chasing debut after having landed a Grade 2 in Novice company at Kempton when last seen, with an opening mark of 147, which is 4lb lower than his hurdling mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Who Dares Wins @ 15/1 MB

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3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

A rather ordinary renewal with plenty of question marks hanging over the market principles. The mare Epatante looks a fair favourite, if nothing else. With plenty of pace this race is unlikely to turn into a pure speed test and I’m not sure whether that truly suits her.

This should suite, however, quite clearly Supasundae. It’s probably fair to argue two miles isn’t quite is optimum trip, on the other hand there is plenty of evidence he is – or least used to be – highly effective over the minimum distance as much as over further:

A winner and runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle, a Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner and a decent 4th on his seasonal reappearance in the 2020 Irish Champion Hurdle back in February; Supasundae doesn’t seem to slow down too much, even though turning ten now.

He is still a class act in this field and I feel the likely setup of the race will be an advantage to him. Hi experience, having been around Cheltenham numerous times is another bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Supasundae @ 11.5/1 MB

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4.10 Mares’ Hurdle, 2m 4f

A fascinating clash between two top mares, albeit the market has Benie Des Dieux a clear favourite, which seems fair, given the should be a hat-trick seeking Festival winner if not for a fall at the last twelve months ago.

The question is, though: is the 9-year-old that far ahead of the young challenger Honeysuckle? We’ll find out today. As it stands now I come to the conclusion to answer this question with a “No”.

BDD has stellar form in the book and look as imperious as ever at Gowran Park in what was her sole outing this season. She has the experience, is fresh and clearly in top form.

Honeysuckle in contrast had quite a few more races this season already, advancing through the ranks, landing the Irish Champion Hurdle when last seen, and connections seriously pondered whether a bid for THE Champion Hurdle should be the race to go for.

It was a widely shared opinion in the aftermath of Leoprdstown that Honeysuckle didn’t quite jumped that well and wasn’t as brilliant as expected. That is to some extend a fair comment.

On the other hand, the Irish Champion Hurdle was still an excellent contest, she beat some really good horses, would be at the very least joint favourite for the Champion Hurdle if running there, and in my view, showed a lot of valuable traits in February, mainly the ability to dig deep and go through the wall when challenged heavily.

I also believe that stepping up to 2 miles & 4 furlongs, on soft ground can lead to further improvement for a mare that has only raced seven times and has won all of them. On the ratings front she ties in closely with BDD: their career best RPR’s and TS rating are only two and one pound off respectively.

With that in mind: Honeysuckle has to improve. But not by much. Given that, she is quite clearly overpriced.

Selection: 
10pts win – Honeysuckle @ 10/3 WH

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Edit: 10:45am – added Mares’ Hurdle

Betting

Saturday Selections: January, 18th 2020

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Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

12.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Presence Process makes a lot of appeal dropping further and further in his mark, now below 50. His latest effort over course and distance was positive, given there looked a spark there for first time headgear.

He probably got a little bit too much locked up in an early battle for the lead, subsequently was pulled back and then didn’t quite have the kick in the home straight, nonetheless finished well enough to see him winning again.

He loves this CD, has ran multiple times to higher speed ratings than his now lowly 49 rating and must have a prime chance in a poor contest.

The key will be the early parts of the race, though: drawn in 9 is a negative.

Selection:
10pts win – Presence Process @ 8/1 MB

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2.25 Ascot: Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle, 2m3½f

It’s probably not the best of signs that he is on the drift with the high street, but I remain quietly hopeful at the very least that Pic D’orhy is a good deal better than his 146 rating and will show it today.

Connections have always said he’s a chaser in the making. Nonetheless, he showed plenty of promise in France over hurdles, in deep ground and I feel the trip and conditions today will suit him.

Granted it is a competitive field. 2m3½f fell the last time at Autil in Grade 1 company a long way from the finish. He made his Nicholls debut at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle where he travelled strongly until a blunder at the second last that ended his chances.

He’s still a young horse, will little millage on the clock and more to come. If he’s a class horse for the future he will need to show something good today against this opposition. At given prices I am inclined to be on his side.

Selection:
10pts win – Pic D’orhy @ 13/2 MB

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4.25 Meydan: Handicap, 7 furlongs

One that caught my eye two weeks ago here at Meydan in a competitive mile handicap was Moqarrar. He started well but was soon pulled back and before hitting the turn switched to the widest outside of the field travelling five deep.

As a consequence Moqarrar lost a lot of ground and had to do more than others in order to stay in touch burning vital energy. The gelding fought on gamely though hitting top gear entering the home straight and looked in with a good shout for the placings but faded eventually.

That was a strong performance taking circumstances into considerations. He can race of 2lb lower today, although drops to 7 furlongs, which may not be a big deal as he won over this trip as a juvenile in the UK.

I imagine he’ll jump out of the gate to be much closer to the pace today in hands of Jim Crowley and if getting a clear run should have a strong chance to outrun his price at the very least.

Selection:
10pts win – Moqarrar @ 11/1 WH

Betting

Saturday Selections: January, 11th 2019

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12.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1 mile

Agent Of Fortune looks to have a solid chance following up with another victory here, however he’s close to his very best rated and has to deal with a wider than ideal draw.

My ideal of a value chance is Subliminal. He comes with clear risks attached given he’s not the easiest to win. Connections try new headgear – remains to be seen whether that has any positive impact.

On the positive side: there is in my mind clear evidence that Subliminal is better than his current 57 handicap mark if he puts it all together. His last three starts all at Lingfield are perfect illustrations for this. He’s been running into trouble multiple times, not helping himself when usually leaving the stalls a tick slowly.

I feel a fair case can be made that when 3rd in November over this course and distance that he came with a winning run down the stretch if not for being a clear run denied on the inside rail. His latest 10/10 finish behind Agent Of Fortune can be upgraded also due to the fact of the suicidal pace Subliminal set and still got as far as he did actually.

A smaller field, a decent draw and no other horse in this field seemingly well handicapped, this is the chance for Subliminal to shine. He’s ran to 60 and 62 topspeeds in 2019 on the All-Weather, so clearly any visual evidence is backed up by the numbers that he is a better horse than what his win record portrays.

Selection:
10pts win – Subliminal @ 7/1 MB

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1.30 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap Chase, 2m4½f

Dipping my toe into unusual territory at this time of the year. But I feel Paul Nicholls’ Sao is supremely well handicapped and should be hard to beat here – if the handbrake is off.

This lightly raced 6-year-old hasn’t won in Britain yet, although showed promise a few times already and looks ready for an interesting campaign. Evidence of his latest run prove a couple of things: Sao wintered well and doesn’t appear to have any breathing issues.

That last race here at Kempton over 2.5f shorter back in November was his first after a summer break and he travelled and jumped well throughout. However he also was hampered by fallers and lose horses twice in the middle of the race, seeing him trailing the field.

Sao made up nice ground and after a pretty light ride by Harry Cobden finished strongly and seemingly with plenty in the tank after jumping the last.

A 123 handicap mark appears certainly low given potential improvement rather likely to come from this half-brother of Frodon. The additional furlongs are unlikely to bother Sao, however he appeared plenty keen the last time over shorter. So there is a light risk as well as the ground which may not quite be soft enough.

Nonetheless Sao appears an outstanding chance in this field in my book if he puts everything together and gets a clear run.

Selection:
10pts win – Sao @ 9/2 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: November, 17th 2019

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DSC_0713

1.15 Cheltenham: Cross County Chase, 3m 6f

Tricky affair that leaves the door wide open for a big price to win. Neither market leader appeals today: ground possibly against Kingswell Theatre and return from a break with bigger fish to fry later the season for French Urgent De Gregaine.

I find the other Emmanuel Clayeux runner Diesel D’Allier the most interesting one: A three times Cross-Country winner in France, still only a six-year-old with more to come potentially, particularly over this longer trip, he’ll love the ground and has potentially a nice weight to play with here.

His last two starts have been slightly disappointing, but he comes here fit at the very least to “test the waters”, according to Clayeux, with an eye on a return to Cheltenham later the season if he takes to the test.

Selection:
10pts win – Diesel D’Allier  @ 15/1 MB

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3.00 Cheltenham: Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, 2m½f

Quel Destin looks to be a potential Champion Hurdle candidate hence I feel, even though it’s a tough ask for a four-year-old to shoulder 11-12, his opening mark of 149 may not stop him.

He won a tough contest over course and distance last month – a career best – and clearly thrives over the old course at Cheltenham, also having no trouble with the soft underfoot conditions whatsoever.

he showed plenty of promise last season already, including multiple graded victories and a fine 5th in the Triumph Hurdle.

Selection:
10pts win – Quel Destin @ 7/1 MB

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1.40 Punchestown: Handicap Hurdle, 2m

After a number of poor performances Scheu Time drops to a tasty mark. The six-year-old likely needed his seasonal reappearance last months and was keen enough to forgive him.

He ended last season poorly, however. Although he showed promise before that, culminating in a strong performance at Aintree clocking a 124 topspeed rating, a career highest performance.

He drops down to a 117 rating now, which I believe gives Scheu Time a big chance to go close if in the mood today. Well riding 5lb claimer Kevin Brouder is booked for the ride.

Selection:
10pts win – Scheu Time @ 10.5/1 MB

Betting

Preview: Irish Grand National 2019

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Katie Walsh and Thunder And Roses, winner of the Irish Grand National

The money is pouring in for Willie Mullins to crack another milestone as Burrows Saint, the choice of Ruby Walsh as well, is now a 6/1 favourite to land the Irish Grand National, and give his trainer a first success in the big race.

A recent winner of a Grade 3 Novice Chase, which was a career best for the 6-year-old, Burrows Saint is turned out under a penalty today, which leaves him still well handicapped potentially, after connections decided to miss a seemingly excellent Grade 1 opportunity yesterday, and instead run here.

As much as I like the look of Burrows Saint, 6/1 is not a price to back him. He ain’t no Tiger Roll!

The two I fancy are further down the pecking order according to the betting. No surprise, I am sweet on the mate Shattered Love again. I fancied her for the Gold Cup – wasn’t to be, though she ran with plenty of credit that day, in my mind.

True, she may prefer it softer, but her record on fast ground isn’t too shabby either. Shattered Love strikes as one who’ll enjoy the test of stamina. Let’s not forget she’s a classy individual, good enough to win at the Cheltenham Festival and one of very few in this contest who ran to a time speed rating of 130+ in their careers.

The other one I quite like is 9-year-old Auvergnat. He gets the excellent assistance of 5lb claiming Miss O’Connor, which is probably needed due to his career highest handicap mark, thanks to his excellent victory in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival.

He was below par in the Cross-County Chase at Cheltenham subsequently, though that may be a form to discount. However, Auvergnat clearly acts well on decent ground, is likely to stay the trip and had a quieter 2019 than many others in this field – so should be rather fresh with plenty left in the tank.

Selections:
5pts win – Shattered Love @ 20/1 MB
5pts win – Auvergnat @ 27/1 MB