Tag Archives: Jump racing

Preview: G2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase, Thurles

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A wide open contest in my view; the trip and ground in combination is something most of these have to prove their class. Tramore’s Savills Chase appears to be a key piece of form, which the market seems to evolve around.

Total Recall was a clear runner-up that day. Invitation Only a distant third. Progressive handicapper Tout Est Permis is the sexy new kid on the block. He’s quite clearly the most interesting of the lot, as he is unknown quality, not having met any of the others in this field yet and also handles good ground.

However, most, if not all in this field, prefer to go further than the 2m 4f 118y; particularly on fast ground this race becomes a bit of a lottery.

Hence the one I find most interesting is Sub Lieutenant. He’s got to bounce back from poor showings in his last two starts. On the excuse side one could argue: Tramore was on ground way too heavy for him and Down Royal a much tougher race, even though it looks more likely he simply didn’t fire that day.

Sub Lieutenant also prefers a longer trip. Nonetheless, he has quite decent form over this sort of distance. That form looks even better if only taken races on better ground into account. Sub Lieutenant is a horse that thrives on fast ground. And with that he is one of only a few in this line-up.

That the 10-year-old isn’t gone that proved his Punchestown victory in the Irish Daily Star Chase back in October and to lesser extend the Galway Handicap success in August.

No doubt Sub Lieutenant has to step up today. And whether he is still near his old best remains to be seen. In these conditions today, in such an open race, I back him to bounce back.

Selection:
10pts win – Sub Lieutenant @ 9/1 MB

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Preview: 2019 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase

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I gonna treat myself to a rare bet on a National Hunt race today. That is because the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase shapes as a wide open renewal, that offers value in the market, given there is no clear favourite, and the one that is at the top of the market right now, is certainly one the take on.

In saying that, you can hardly point to anything with a lot of confidence and say “win material”. However, Captain Redbeard is the one who looks most likely to run to his form, given he has never been out of the money at this track and was a fair runner-up in this race last year.

It’s probably fair to forgive him the latest Aintree performance, and rather judge him by his other two fine efforts this season, back in November over hurdles and fences two 3rd-place finishes subsequently.

Captain Redbeard is not incredibly well handicapped. On the other hand, with his course form in mind and the fact he does act on faster ground, he looks ready for a big run.

The other one at much bigger odds I do like here to bounce back is Three Musketeers. He’s been badly out of form and takes a big step up in trip as well. Though, on past form he could be well in at the weights, granted he stays the trip and finds back some enthusiasm.

I feel on this better ground he has a chance to be competitive over this trip; in a wide open contest it isn’t out of this world to see Three Musketeers causing an upset.

Selections:
5pts win – Captain Redbeard @ 13/2 MB
5pts win – Three Musketeers @ 17/1 MB

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Preview

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2.05 Newcastle: Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2m½f

Feels odds throwing my hat into the ring at a race at Newcastle that isn’t run on the sand…. as much as I love watching the spectacle that is jump racing, betting wise it’s no good to me – at least on a day to day basis.

Today isn’t an ordinary day, though. It’s the Fighting Fifth, the first huge Grade 1 of the season that gets the pulls raising. All the hot Champion Hurdle contenders are here – an early-season clash that’ll give us an indication if Samcro can justify the hype, after two runs that saw him a faller and then a beaten odds-on favourite.

I think, on that evidence, given the short price today again, I’m certainly inclined to take him on. Sure, the 6-year-old will come on for his recent run, but somehow that performance lacked the usual zest you would associate with Samcro, and looked more concerning to my eyes than simply being a pleasing pipe opener yielding in plenty of improvement. We shall see….

There is no doubt Buveur D’air is the one they all have to beat. He’s the defending champion in both the Champion- and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. He’s the one who ran to the highest time speed rating of all of these, by a country mile.

Granted, this is an important early-season target, I bet Buveur D’air will not be fully wound up today. A Champion Hurdle hat-trick is the main objective. March is a long way from here.

I’ also intrigued by the “routine wind op” he has undergone during the summer. Is there really such thing as a “routine operation”? Possibly. I don’t know enough about it. Nonetheless, it puts enough doubts in my mind, compared with the bigger fish to fry for Buveur D’air later the season, to oppose him at short odds.

The obvious alternative is Summerville Boy. The reigning Supreme champ, also on his seasonal debut, obviously – with his own question marks. Around trip – too sharp? Ground – not soft enough? Talent – good enough?

He was an impressive winner at the Festival for obvious reasons, but the fact he seems to have issues with concentration, in a race that’ll likely be about speed and accurate jumping, whereas he strikes me more like a grinder, is a big question mark. Will he be ready for today? I bet so! If you want to gauge how Summerville Boy measures up against the top guns you got to be ready for the fight today.

Connections are pretty bullish. On the evidence on form and ratings he has plenty to find to Buveur D’air, but not a lot to Samcro – in fact his all-time best TS is a pound better than Samcro’s. Whether that’s of significance, is up for debate. Certainly, on evidence, the six-year-old has plenty scope for improvement, if he gets his act together in the later stages of the race.

Given my doubts about pretty much any of the main principles in the race, and not having a lot of confidence in the other two in the field, at given prices Summerville Boy looks a superb bet.

I feel this race is more important for him than for the favourite. I believe, at this stage, he’s likely as good as Samcro. There are plenty of positives vibes around him as well – so I allow myself a crack at this hugely exciting renewal of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle!

Selection:
10pts win – Summerville Boy @ 6/1 MB

……..

5.15 Wolverhampton: Novice Stakes, 5f

Vee Man Ten looks a decent colt after showing promise in two starts on turf earlier this year. He looked like winning on debut at Beverly but was squeezed out eventually to finish third while only ridden hands and heels – this form looks strong judged through the winner in particular, but also the runner-up.

He blasted out of the gates at Haydock less than two weeks later, setting a brutal pace that wasn’t sustainable, particularly over 6 furlongs. However, the early speed he showed was impressive.

Now the bit wiser, first time on the All-Weather and dropping to 5f, it could be third time lucky. On pedigree this should suit, his sire has a fine record on the sand over the minimum trip, particularly with juveniles.

Vee Man Ten has a hood fitted for the first time, which may not be a disadvantage, a good draw and jockey KT O’Neill making his way here for this one ride only – strong chance.

Selection:
10pts win – Vee Man Ten @ 4/1 Sky

Betting Preview: 2018 Irish Grand National

Katie Walsh and Thunder And Roses, winner of the Irish Grand National

Irish Grand National day – a dire day weather wise, if I have a look out of the window. Heavy ground at Fairyhouse – this will be some tough slug! You got to enjoy this type of deep ground and staying is the name of the game.

So, is it smart to be sweet on two horses that do have to prove they can last the National distance? Remains to be seen. Nonetheless, I do fancy Bellshill quite a bit. He would have been interesting for Aintree as well, however, Willie Mullins decided, despite an 8lb penalty for his last win, it’s going to be home sweet home.

Bellshill won the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase in February, bypassing Cheltenham for a crack at the Irish National subsequently. Up for debate how much this form is worth. Still, he looked like the trip is certainly no issue and further to that he enhanced his fine record on deep ground.

Off 158 effectively today, I feel this mark could still treat Bellshill lightly. He’s a class act – let’s not forget he finished a good third in the RSA behind Might Bite twelve months ago!

From the bigger prices I also quite like the look of top weight Outlander. Off 11st 10lb it’ll be an almighty uphill task, no doubt, and you have to get back quite a bit in history to find a winner off top weight.

The fact that Outlander was pulled up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup isn’t ideal. On the other hand his runner-up performance in the Irish Gold Cup sets quite a high standard and says he is still worth every pound of his rating.

It is also fair to say Outlander is a different horse at home soil. He’s also enjoying deep ground, though, his stamina, albeit winning form over three miles, will be tested to the limit today.

I quite like the fact that an excellent 7lb claimer is booked, who will take off valuable pounds. Rob James is one of the leading riders on the Irish Point-to-Point scene, so that looks a significant jockey booking.

Selections:
7pts win – Bellshill @ 11/1 VC
3pts win – Outlander @ 40/1 VC

Cheltenham Festival 2018 – 3 Fancies for Day 1

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Here we go! Cheltenham is upon us…. finally! Didn’t we have to wait long enough?

It sometimes feels like a slog throughout the dreariness of the short and oh so often grey days of the winter. I for one certainly share this sentiment in regards to jump. Anything points to the Festival in March, which always seems so far away – yet if you take your eye of it for once, it suddenly approaches with rapid speed and hits you right in the face without a warning!

Anyway, all the talk is over. It’s now that matters most. Who’s going to live up to the hype? Who’s going to fail and end up a mere footnote in history? Plenty of opportunities for either fate on day 1 this year.

Last year was an incredibly profitable Festival for myself betting wise. The year before it was a disaster. The year before that it was simply sensational. Means this year is going to be….?

Well, without further due, here are my three fancies for the first day of a mad week – a day that’s often hailed as probably the finest of its kind in the whole wide world of horse racing.

13:30 Cheltenham – Supreme Novices Hurdle:

Getabird looks hard to beat on anything we know so far. How much more improvement can he find? He’ll love the ground, given he’s a point-to-point winner and the ratting pace should be in his favour, that’s for sure. Hard to imagine we have seen the best of him yet. However,….

…. on prices I prefer Tolworth Hurdle winner Summerville Boy, because on ratings there is actually very little between the two. While Getabird is likely to improve it’s hard to argue that this lad isn’t capable of getting better either.

Summerville Boy got tough ground and a fair pace pretty much for the first time in this combination at Sandown. He obliged duly, putting Supreme second favourite Kalashnikov rather easily away in the end. He should love conditions here and I believe he’ll make it a real contest for Getabird.

Stock is rising, odds are shortening – still, there is some fair prices around.

Selection:
10pts win – Summerville Boy @ 9.5/1 Matchbook

……..

15:30 Cheltenham – Champion Hurdle:

You can’t fault defending champion Buveur D’Air. He’s done everything right whereas no real rival has come to the fore this season. That says, Buveur D’Air hasn’t been really tested this season either. So, do we really know how much any of those runs is worth?

We may do – regardless, if there is one horse in the race able to beat him it has to be Yorkhill. Not too long ago he was hailed to be the best horse in training; two crushing defeats over fences later, sees his reputation in tatters and him reverted back to hurdles over two miles.

While he never seemed to have the same regard for hurdles as for fences, fact remains Yorkhill has been a Festival winner over them and is four out of five overall. The trip might be a bit on the sharp side these days, however, the ground should will likely slow things down a little bit in that regard.

Ideally Ruby would sit in the saddle. Yorkhill is a notoriously difficult ride. That, plus his sketchy jumping may easily ruin his chances before we turn for home – in terms of ability and potential he certainly can rival the favourite hence the price is massive.

Selection:
10pts win – Yorkhill @ 16/1 VC

……

16:50 Cheltenham – National Hunt Chase:

My initial reaction to this race was “Jamie Codd, Jury Duty!” However, stamina in this heavy ground is a real question mark. Yes, Tiger Roll won last year but that were different circumstances, I would argue.

A long-shot, but by no means without a chance, is Katy Walsh’s ride Pylonthepressure. Once thought good enough to contest a Champion Bumper (taken out on the day) and receiving raving reviews beforehand by Willie Mullins, he also finished 2nd behind Our Duke in a Hurdle a good two years ago and remains lightly raced.

He went over fences this season, and after a year-long absence needed his return, though, in January won a Beginners Chase at Thurles when dropped to 2 miles. Stamina won him the race that day. He looked like a beginner making a couple of mistakes but should have learned allot.

Upped to 4 miles seems strange in that regard. On the other hand, the mantra of connections was on more than on occasion that he has got plenty of stamina. This type of race, with the ground we have on day one, could suit him really well. Least we forget he is also a point-to-point winner.

Selection:
5pts e/w – Pylonthepressure @ 20/1 Matchbook

Preview: Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle

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1.45 Naas: Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, 2m 4f

No Samcro in the race makes the task on hand for Next Destination somewhat easier. One would think so, at least. A brilliant Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle winner, comes here with plenty of positive experience.

He created a big impression on a number of occasions now. A fine bumper horse last season, he proves even better over hurdles. 2/2 now, overcoming a slight fright at at the third last but came back on the bridle and putting the race to bet in impressive style.

He’s the clear favourite on anything we know. What we don’t know yet, how much upside does the Joseph O’Brien trained Speak Easy has to offer?

He landed a maiden hurdle when debuting under rules at Navan last month. Clearly green and not quite sure what to do, he made Mark Walsh work a bit throughout and missed a couple of jumps.

However the way he made progress and motored home without ever being really touched, in a maiden hurdle that looks like solid form, is something to take note of.

Connections decided against the Tolworth and rather opted to come to Naas. They will hope he has learned plenty the other day. He’ll have to be a fast learner if he wants to trouble the favourite.

However in his favour is the step up in trip. 2m 4f should suit much better than 2m. Given how good Speak Easy already looked when showing plenty signs of inexperience, one can only imagine how much more he can bring to the table if understanding more of what his job is.

Interesting side fact: Speak Easy has achieved the highest time speed rating in the field so far. Not always an indicator for success, nonetheless the fact Next Destination hasn’t run better than 109 yet, is another small piece in the puzzle that let me come to the conclusion that there is potentially less between these two than the market suggests.

It is hard to see anyone else from the field having a realistic say in the outcome of the race. So at 11/2 it is impossible for me to not back Speak Easy. Maybe Next Destionation is the better horse and can use his experience to full extend – however on pure price reasons, I feel Speak Easy has a better than 16% chance to win.

Selection:
10pts win – Speak Easy @ 11/2 Bet365

Betting Review 2017

608.70 points profit. 31.62% ROI. 2017.

It’s been some betting year. A year of hard work. A year of change. Change and work that paid off. A handsome reward, for hours and hours put in day and night.

It was needed. A disastrous end to 2015, and the worst betting year in long memory that was 2016, left me without a choice but to change  my approach to the game. Change it radically, if I wanted to continue to be part of it.

To make this game pay can sometimes feel easy. A big winner in the feature on Saturday. Happy days! Oh so easy. Not.

The difficulty is felt only if you keep track of what you’re doing over a long enough period of time. When you see the numbers turning either green or red. Profitable betting long term isn’t easy. It’s bloody difficult.

That’s why it’s key question to answer for every punter with the aim of extracting tangible gains from betting: how can I find a scalable model that can be trusted on a day to day basis that helps me to stay focused, selective and takes emotions out of the equation?

2017 was the year of change for me personally on that front. What worked in the past, didn’t work any longer. The game changes. And if you don’t change with the game you lose.

The Numbers Game – 2017 in Detail:

•  Bets: 211
•  Winners: 37
•  Profit/Loss: +608.70pts
•  Strike Rate: 17.54%
•  ROI: 31.62%

No surprise, the majority of my bets came on the flat. 168 bets, for 32 winners. The average odds was in and around 10/1; the winning odds on average roughly 7/1. Only 36 of all bets came on the British All-Weather, resulting in 8 winners and a very healthy ROI.

The jumps game isn’t mine on a day to day basis. 43 bets, mostly at the Cheltenham Festival, produced a small profit from five winners, thanks to some big price winners.

My selections tend to do poorly in graded and better races in general. On the other hand, selections in the lower end of the handicap spectrum have been hugely successful. In fact 17 winning selections in class 4 or lower class handicaps amounting for nearly half of all winning bets in 2017, however for only a bit more than a third of all selections.

Highlights were quite clearly Tiger Roll’s Cheltenham succes in the National Hunt Cup – a 20/1 winner, the biggest of the year.

Even more so celebrated however, was Rekindling’s Melbourne Cup triumph. Because I shouted it from the roof the night before. I rarely do that, but was sure this lad would go well.

Also because the Melbourne Cup is my favourite race of the racing calendar. I didn’t find the winner in it ever before. It was a great betting- and personally emotional win.


Focus for 2018:

It’s easy. More All-Weather. It’s my strong point. Quite clearly.

More selectiveness if it comes to the better racing. Yes, it would be nice to have a bet in the big Group 1 at Ascot… but not for the sake of “just having one”.

Less jump racing. I am not too good at it. So let’s keep it to minimum and watch out for real quality selections.

Reduce number of “shorties”. Selections <=2/1 are simply not as profitable and I made some pretty bad selections in 2017.

Target unexposed three year old’s versus exposed older horses in Spring.