7.40 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3f
This really isn’t a strong race hence a long-shot can upset the market. Pempie is the one I quite like, even though there are obvious negatives as well.
Those are: you have to trust a combination of second run since a wind OP and off a break see him finding back some form. Also he will need to start much better than when dwelling on his recent Kempton run. That performance over a mile included, since his Salisbury victory in May Pempie has regressed.
On the other hand, the 3-year-old is still lightly raced, has clearly had issues which may have been rectified with the wind OP, he will strip fitter for the comeback run and will respond positively to the first time tongue tie today.
Also the step up in trip looks clearly in his favour, so is the drop of 2lb in his handicap mark, bringing him down to a rating of 69.
When winning at Salisbury in May Pempie won of a 71 handicap mark and also ran to a topspeed rating of 71, suggesting he could be handicapped to go close today. As a full-brother to Sky Eagle, a two times All-Weather winner over 12 furlongs, currently rated 82.
10pts win – Pempie @ 19/1 MB