Quite disappointing performances from both selections at Wolverhampton last night. Both relinquished rather willingly their low draw, and neither got properly involved in the finish of their respective races.
Surprised me. I must admit, because I was quietly keen on both horses being seriously overpriced; I wasn’t expecting but certainly hoping for huge runs. Shows even if you ‘feel’ you sit on really strong bets, it doesn’t mean anything in this game.
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8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Second run after a break, Roman Dynasty looks seriously dangerous off a career-lowest handicap mark today over a course and distance that should suit, with Spencer on board.
He caught the eye twice in October at Chelmsford, especially that October 22nd run was noteworthy, because with some imagination one could see how he possibly goes seriously close with a clear run that day.
His comeback run a fortnight ago was clearly one of the rather eyecatching sort as well. He had a wide draw to overcome, travelled well off the pace, going well into the home straight, and made excellent progress under hands and heels to finish the fastest in the final furlong.
A better draw today, another two pounds off the mark that brings him down to 69, a career-lowest Official Rating – he should be ripe and ready to rock.
On past performances he appears to be pretty well handicapped: he ran to topspeed 72 on turf last summer and he looked more than capable to be better than his current 69 rating, judged on his All-Weather efforts.
The early money has dried up and he’s on the drift in the betting this morning, especially on the exchanges where it feels a bit suspect that I managed to get 15/2 and bits matched for my entire stake without too much hassle, given earlier industry prices showed around 9/2; something I don’t like to see when Spencer rides.
But I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t run his race today, with wellbeing and form confirmed in no uncertain terms in a winnable contest.
The race that stops a nation…. or the race that stops me sleep. Every year the same procedure: Melbourne Cup Tuesday is nearing and I am excited as a little child on the eve before Christmas. I LOVE the Melbourne Cup, it’s my favourite race.
It helps having backed the winner of the last two editions at rather generous odds, of course. While I love the spectacle of watching the race on TV at half past three in the morning with a blanket and a warm cuppa in my hands, it’s certainly has been financially rewarding as much as it’s emotionally warming – backing a winner or not.
But backing a winner is even more fun. So Let’s do three in a row?
………
This year appears to be a highly compelling renewal – certainly on paper. The field includes Cross Counter, the defending champion; the exciting Japanese rider and Caulfield Cup winner Mer De Glace; the Ebor Handicap winner Mustajeer; last years Irish Derby hero Latrobe; plus a highly competitive home team.
On the other hand, I feel this race is much easier to dissect than in years past. Sure, luck can play its part in the race. A massive field will always produce a hard-luck story…. or two, or three of those stories. Regardless, I can see only a handful of realistic contenders, to be perfectly honest.
You can cross a line through half the field easily on the grounds of the softish going, distance, weight or racing style. The ones I can’t dismiss so easily and who made it on to my shortlist are as follows:
Il Paradiso: fits the trend of recent winners. Still relatively low mileage, some classy form in the book, looks to have the right sort of relaxed attitude, appears to stay and will be fine on any softness left in the ground. His tendency to break slowly is a major negative from draw 17, though. Blinkers may help but the “may” is already reflected in the price, I’m afraid.
Constantinople: you couldn’t watch the Caulfield Cup and not be impressed how he finished despite the fact he came from well off the pace and was significantly hampered at a crucial stage. Ran twice to a 108 topspeed ratings year. Most talented horse in the race?
His racing style is not and advantage. His tendency to sweat and exert energy in the preliminaries neither. Not easy to get things right on him. Needs everything to fall right, which it may well do, but I’m happy enough to let it go for single figure odds.
Vow And Declare: Strong chance for the home team if there wouldn’t be the draw. Classy stayer, form in the book, hits peak at the right time as excellent runner-up performance in Caulfield Cup suggested. Drawn in 21 will make life tough.
Dawndraft: Quite a bit of racing under the belt yet still improving. Good performances in Ireland this summer, including career best Listed success (101 TS) albeit below standard required here.
But two good runs since arriving Down Under. Visually compelling latest victory. But that performance came only 3 days ago which is a major concern.
Mustajeer: Excellent winner of the Ebor. Has improved again this season, ran well in Group races before having the perfect race at York. From the draw to the way the race developed to a clear run: everything worked to perfection.
He is a strong galloping sort who I feel will be suited perfectly by the Melbourne Cup. Had a fine prep in the Caulfield Cup and won’t fear the ground.
But that is the point: everything went to perfection at York. Will it today? He’s uncomplicated, that’s a big plus. I think he will go close. Still, it’s going to be the Ebor 4th Raymond Tusk that my money is riding with on Tuesday morning, 4am Irish time.
Raymond Tusk: On a different day he’d have been the brilliant winner of the 2019 Ebor and would be much shorter in the betting than he is now. Drawn in the car park he was trailing the field still turning for home, a wall of horses in front, yet travelling much the best. He had to weave his way through for a clear run and the bird was flown when he finally did.
Still finished a strong 4th, not far beaten, and running to a career best 107 topspeed rating. He’s 4lb better off with Mustajeer here and has a much better draw to play with.
I have one fear that is Jamie Spencer: we know he likes to come from off the pace with his mounts. I hope the good draw will help to settle on a positive racing strategy. Interviews I heard have given me hope indeed.
Still with low enough mileage, Raymond Tusk is an improving individual, who comes here fresh, which seems to bring the best of him usually. Cut in the ground is a question mark. His best results cam on fast ground. However he didn’t have a lot of chances to race on soft. And he did win a maiden over 1 mile on good to soft. Another pointer to give hope.
Small but ultra-competitive field. Paddypley drops in class and went close the last time; he’s sure to have a big shout. French recruit Stonific is an interesting contender for David O’Meara. His opening mark looks very workable. Recent CD scorer Theglasgowwarrior may not be stopped by a 5lb hike in the mark.
Yet, The Resdev Way seems to be the forgotten horse in the race, certainly in the betting. The five-year old gelding, however, has a sensational course and distance record. From five runs he won three and was placed in two others, while his last CD effort, back in 2016, when he finished third off 4lb higher than his current handicap mark, is quite a strong piece of form as well.
Things didn’t go to plan for quite a while afterwards. Neither on the flat nor over hurdles did he show anything, until he returned to his beloved Newcastle mid-January, then over 2 miles – he travelled strongly, looked like the winner when approaching the final furlong, though, he bumped into a well handicapped individual who found more when The Resdev Way tired in the dying strides over a trip probably stretching his stamina.
Still, a fine piece of form, given the winner has won subsequently again. The Resdev Way returned ten days later at Chelmsford over 1m 5½f, without landing a blow. I wouldn’t judge him too harshly on that, as clearly here at Newcastle he seems to be an entirely different beast.
Finally he returns to Newcastle over his optimum trip; with Paul Hannagan booked for the ride, I feel The Resdev Way is overpriced in this race, despite its competitive nature.
Selection:
10pts win – The Resdev Way @ 14/1 VC
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9.00 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile
Gala Celebration returns from a break for a new yard. He has shown in the past he can win fresh; in fact 11 months ago fresh reappearing from a 156 day-long break, he got off the mark in a 7f Handicap at Lingfield, putting up a near freakish performance from the front – in the context of the class of the race and level of the horses involved – when overcoming a wide draw and coming home strongly totally unchallenged.
He didn’t strolled along that day, he set good fractions, yet nothing in the race could get by him, he ran them totally into the ground.
He was pretty on and off in all his next starts. However, now back from a break and 2lb lower in the mark than for last year’s Lingfield success, he seems dangerously weighted in this contest.
That says, Gala Celebration needs to stretch out to a mile, a trip he has tried twice before. He didn’t run too badly on turf in softish conditions and certainly it looks possible on pedigree.
Interesting jockey booking with Jamie Spencer taking the ride on what is Ian Williams’ sole runner on the night. Both enjoy an excellent strike rate together and with the additional aid of a good draw it looks likely that Gala Celebration is ready for a big run.
SLOW burning day, but no surprise given the Ebor Festival is looming large. Not much caught my eye today with the exception of the story that Jamie Spencer lost the ride on The Grey Gatsby in the Juddmonte International.
“The horse needs a fresh pair of hands” says trainer Kevin Ryan. So Danny Tudhope gets the nod. Tudhope is a bit the man of the hour after his sensational ride in the Arlington Million last Saturday.
Question is: does this jockey change make actually any difference in the big race tomorrow? Probably not. Jamie Spencer, regarded as villain number one of every armchair jockey, has done little wrong when riding The Grey Gatsby.
But you know how it is: changing things for the sake of it can sometimes make you feel better, though how often does it lead to something good? Well, just think about how often football teams change their manager and how often this leads to sustained success…..
Stat of the Day:
35 – James Tate’s win percentage in Handicaps at Wolverhampton in the summer! Delivers an ROI of 94%, and he’s been even better over the last two summers posing an ultra impressive 62.5% place strike rate at this venue!
Interestingly his success rate drops significantly for the rest of the year, so it seems Tate exploits those often less competitive races on the Wolverhampton All-Weather, knowing how to target particularly the low grade handicaps.
His top contender today is filly Mayasa – her chances are boosted by her pedigree, given Iffraaj offspring acts extremely well at the Wolverhampon tapeta.
A day of seconds and thirds… let’s not dwell on it. Much more fun is to watch he ATR “Ride of the Month”! As always the At The Races team selected a number of spectacular rides seen at tracks they show racing from.
I honestly find it hard to get excited about jumpers at this time of the year, so to see those type of rides appearing on my screen…. It feels odd, regardless of how spectacular they are.
Nonetheless, I want to give Ruby Walsh an honourable mention for the heroics he had to perform to get Penhill over the line at Galway. Any other month it might be the ride of the month….
But it’s the flat season, so for me the three top rides were:
Jamie Spencer – Deavuille
Pat Smullen – Xsquared
Josephine Gordon – Dltripleseven
Of course Pat Smullen on a slipping saddle was horsemanship at its best, but I got to give it to Jamie Spencer.
Usually at the receiving end of stick of an army of armchair jockeys (predominantly on social media), he gave Deauville a peach of a ride from an impossible draw in the Belmont Derby, and miraculously had the horse in a prime sport turning for home, while saving enough fuel for when it really mattered. Well done!
Oh yeah, that feels good – back with a bang last night! After an unbelievable week, with dramatic losses, the new week started SO much better at Ballinrobe. 2 selections, 2 winners – I really needed that. Sherlock Holmes didn’t enjoy the tight track but still managed to win. He’s a nice prospect for the stayers division. Oceania Queen overcame some in-running trouble to get up impressively eventually – both winners drifted to 11/8 and 6/1 SP respectively.
3.45 Salisbury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f
This looks a wide open race with plenty of question marks over each and ever runner. So I’m puzzled to see a rather clear favourite emerging with Darshini. Sure, the lightly raced colt with first time headgear may well improve for experience and the new trip, yet it is not a given that he stays, nor that he is capable of overcoming a career highest mark off 90. He’s opposable in my mind.
Process is one of few who is sure to stay the trip as he has form over 12f. He won a mediocre race at Kempton and followed up with a decent runner-up effort at Newmarket, which however implicated that this Nayef son has already reached his limit. He is vulnerable to any improver.
Oceane was only seen in France so far. It’s a tough task assigned today and he is best watched. Simple Verse is a distance winner and was a fine second at Goodwood recently. She could have more to offer but the handicapper takes no chances with her – 5lb up for 3/4l defeat – that’s a bit harsh.
Unexposed Life Less Ordinary won a 12f Handicap at Windsor in very taking style. He was quickly turned out again but the drop in trip as well as softish ground didn’t seem to suit. He travelled like the winner for a long time but hung badly in the closing stages. Back to 12f with quick conditions sure to suit, appeals as an improver.
Roger Charlton’s Marmot won a class 5 Handicap at Brighton recently. He may get the new trip but much more is required here today up in class. Polarisation looks a bad price given his overall record. The step up in trip seems more like the last resort than anything likely to suit.
Man Look is lightly raced and was not disgraced in fourth the last time. As feather weight in this contest he can’t be underestimated. Steady Major is well exposed and hard to fancy.
Verdict: On the prices on offer I feel Life Less Ordinary is the overpriced runner in this field. He looked to have tons in hand when he won at Windsor and travelled equally well the next time for a long time while conditions seemingly didn’t suit. Back from a little break and with trip and ground in his favour today, he strikes me as a potentially well handicapped individual.
I really like the Cape Cross gelding Oracolo in this open looking race. Rated a fair 71 on his handicap debut, he appeals as the type to improve with age.
He needed three attempts to get off the mark last year, finished third on his second start in a good Redcar maiden and won at Wolverhampton eventually in a decent race. Thhat day he gave the impression of talent individual as he had to overcome a wide draw which is never an advantage there, but made eye-catchingly progress from 3f out on the wide outside and won the race in a photo in the end.
Step up to 1m is sure to suit on pedigree, Jamie Spencer booked may indicate that a good run is expected on his seasonal reappearance. Interestingly he has also been gelded over the winter. In a nutshell – there could be plenty more to come. In this open little race he looks a big price!
I’ll be having a speculative on Richard Fahey’s Steve Prescott. On pure form this horse has a bit too find on his seasonal reappearance but there is plenty to like about him nonetheless. His penultimate performance last season over course and distance rates a good one. He missed the kick but stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. Off a 2lb higher mark he couldn’t follow up in a subsequent start, but most of his racing came here at Chester and he did rather well.
However he seemed to develop a habit of starting slowly, which would be a problem today. He’s never been tried on really soft ground before, however his sire is one with a good record in these conditions usually. Furthermore he should improve with age.
What makes him interesting is the fact that he’s first time out as gelding today. That may well help him to overcome temperamental problems and he could be able to improve a bit. As a fresh horse today, now gelded, you would expect him to be ready for this meeting given who the trainer and owner is. Draw isn’t ideal, but it is a wide open race with a good but overbet favourite. Steve Prescott @ 25/1 Coral – 5pts Win
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