Tag Archives: Lingfield

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd November 2023

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5.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.

The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.

His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.

Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.

At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.

He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.

He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.

But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.

10pts win – Newyorkstateofmind @ 7/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #1

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Winter is coming. With that in mind I’m starting a new list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

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Jimmy Mark
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Held up in last until he made excellent progress from 4f out. Turned very wide and plenty to do. Not the clearest of runs in the home straight, yet finished much the best.


Clearly still improving after cosy Bath success lto. Outstayed his pedigree so far. Racing style not ideal for AW but a smaller field not contested at a rapid clip over 10f should be fine as he possesses cruising speed and a change of gear likely superior for this grade.

Would be intriguing if he drops in trip as well to a mile as he possesses the speed.

Race Replay

Streetstorm
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Bit keen in the early parts of the race. Restrained in midfield. Travelled strongly to the 2f marker and made strong move around the home bend. Maybe didn’t quite get home in the final furlong.

Still a maiden, however, ran to 60 speed rating over 1m on the AW earlier the year. A drop to a mile or the 8.5f at Wolverhampton could bring out more improvement off a potentially lenient mark. Recent turf run can be ignored.

Race Replay

After John
06/10/23 – 4.02 Newcastle:

Travelled strongly in rear. Made excellent progress on sectionals and visually from 4f out all the way to inside 2f from home. Had a lot to do, though. Ran out off steam eventually.

Clear return to form. Down to dangerous mark. 6f Newcastle obviously interesting next time, as long as there is a solid pace to chance. Otherwise may be worth wait for additional help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Astral Beat
06/10/23 – 5.00 Dundalk:

Ducked left at the start, quickly recovered and moved forward. Soon grabbed the lead and was quick through the first three furlongs going well before falling away from 1.5f out.

Usually a quick starter. Big prices ever since moving to Ireland. Slowly comes down to intriguing mark. Ran to 55+ speed ratings three times last year on the All-Weather. May have a few more runs before fully in the picture for win purposes. Watch the betting.

Race Replay

Sao Timothy
07/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Keen early on, hampered soon after the start and even further lit up as a consequence. Made strong progress from 3f out to be in a challenging position over 1f out. Couldn’t sustain effort but showed good attitude all the way to the line.

Big price, and only second start in handicap company. Should stay the trip on pedigree but may benefit from a drop to a mile or 8.5f. Unexposed, and could be better than this lowly mark.

Race Replay

The Defiant
09/10/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quick start from widest draw. Chased leader, before taking up the lead entering the home straight. Awkward over 1f out before getting tired and swamped. Strong run at big price.

Seems to hit form again and 1lb below last winning mark. Has turf entry next but worth to wait for 5f AW, especially with any additional help from the handicapper and in a race he could dominate.

Race Replay

Guiteau
09/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Solid start, travelled well enough throughout. However, held up around the home bend as trapped on the inside when the crucial moves where made in front of him. Made strong progress once in the clear and still finished best over the last three furlongs.

Only 3rd AW run. Scope for improvement. Should be able to step up to a mile as well. Clearly capable off 58 and possibly a win or two better, as he also ran to 57 speed rating here in less than ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Taritino
11/10/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Quickly moved forward on the outside of the early leaders. Grabbed the lead and fastest through four of first five furlongs, keen as well in first-time blinkers.

No surprise to see him tire badly. 7f looks ideal. Showed some good form over the trip in the past. Unexposed on the All-Weather. Down to intriguing mark when trip and headgear are more suitable.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
11/10/23 – 8.00 Kempton:

Good start, but lit up my moving horse in front of him just before the bend that saw him fall back into tendencies to hang badly. Gave a lot of ground away and needed time to find his feed. Ran home strongly from 2f out, fasted through the final furlong.

Huge ran prior at Wolverhampton from the front as well from wide draw. Obviously a frustrating sort. Not genuine. But also clearly better than OR 74 if he can get his act together. Ideally has an inside draw to get cover on the sides.

Drop to 5f also interesting on a straight, perhaps even with application of headgear once more.

Race Replay

Garrick Painter
13/010/23 – 5.45 Dundalk:

Not the sharpest away and pushed forward, but soon pulled through on the inside to grab the led thanks to the low draw. In front until 2f before getting badly tired. First run for new yard off a small break.

Still lightly enough raced. Ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year. Will come down to intriguing mark over 7f or maybe even more so a mile especially when he gets a good draw once again.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st July 2023

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June is over: 29pts profit. I guess, the way it went that counts as a major success. Quite how that is possible to turn a profit in a month with runs of 31 and 16 conseqeuitive losing bets is remarkable as it’s not sustainable.

Some big prices saved the day. Whether the rest was just unfortunate or more to it, I’ll need to dig deeper. What is certain: I had too many bets. The overwhelming amount of racing doesn’t help.

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8.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Nibras Rainbow seems difficult to catch as he couldn’t follow on from an eyecatching run at track when last seen at Wetherby.

I felt he had excuses that day, though. Heavily bumped soon after the start, he lost his balance, was lit up, and used up energy to get moving forward. He was early beaten enough, nonetheless.

I have to go back to his penultimate effort over the extended seven furlongs here at Lingfield four weeks ago. A strong run and excellent form:

He dwelt from a wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was then still going well two furlongs from before before heavily challenged. He was seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Nibras Rainbow ran a career-best speed rating that day, in line with his current mark. Can he repeat the effort today, and may find a bit more? A decent start, from the #6 draw, could ensure that.

This is a wide open contest in my view. The favourite may improve again, but has to for the return to turf. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, so worth taking on.

Nibras Rainbow is drifting in the betting this morning. But I feel he’s moving out to a huge price, if here to run on merit.

10pts win – Nibras Rainbow @ 7/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 24th June 2023

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2-2-3-3-4-5-14. That’s how my selections finished. What a disaster of a day Friday was.

Although, Remarquee came rather close to winning at 33s, but ultimately, I don’t think the slight interference made a significant difference, being totally honest.

To make matters worse, Coppice won the Sandringham (one of my horses to follow but didn’t back here) and Alseeyerthere won the Redcar race – a huge eyecatcher last time out, but I decided to go with ungenuine Fiftyshadesofred at a poor price.

The margins of error are small in this game. Sometimes it’s down to luck, sometimes down to poor decision making. Poor decisions eats profit, though. Always.

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3.05 Ascot: Group 3 Jersey Stakes, 7f

Enfajaar is one of my horses to follow this season and he showed nothing but an abundance of talent on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month.

He was a little bit keen early on, but then travelled strongly and kicked clear in the most impressive fashion in the final furlong.

The drop in trip is a slight question mark, because he may also stay a bit further than a mile. But this lad isn’t short of speed, at all. He can accelerate rapidly.

The stiff 7 furlongs at Ascot, with a good pace to chase, having likely front-running Covey drawn close by, could be a perfect scenario.

One only has to watch back his impressive debut performance at Newmarket last year over 7 furlongs, where he accelerated in impressive style from 3 furlongs out and stayed strongly to the line.

There is no doubt he’s pattern class, I believe. The only serious question mark I have is the fast ground. His two wins came on good to soft and on the All-Weather, he seems to hit the ground hard as well. If he acts on this surface, he should be the one to beat.

10pts win – Enfajaar @ 8/1

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5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Khanjar can run off his old 97 mark here before it goes up soon. He is a somewhat tricky sort and new headgear must make a difference to help him with sharpness.

However, if that does help, he’s one who could be underestimated here, still. He looks to have a huge engine and the potential to improve again.

His form can be a bit hit and miss and difficult to read. He ran better at York on his seasonal debut than the bare result. And even better next time at Hamilton.

There he was slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw and racing wide, hence away from the usually more favoured stands’ side.

He made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Nonetheless, he ran four (+ equal in one) of six furlongs faster than the eventual winner, and was arguably unlucky.

I think it’s fair to say he has been a bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps he contest to date. Clearly there’s untapped potential. Whether it can be ever realised remains to be seen.

In any case he’s a strong, galloping sort who stays well over 6 furlongs and he should relish the stiff finish here at Ascot. The pace map looks somewhat puzzling, so there is a chance he’s not in the right spot.

10pts win – Khanjar @ 10/1

……….

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3.52 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground.

However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well.

I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile:

He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn’t enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail.

I hope from the #1 draw he’ll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly.

Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.

10pts win – Vecchio @ 9/2

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4.14 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Wide open and competitive. Where’s the pace to come from? Probably more toward the far rail and high numbers. That is a positive as it brings Huddle Up right into the equation.

He showed excellent form in all starts this year and looked like he could be a bit better than his current 73 rating in the right race.

He was found out for speed and/or class over the minimum trip the last to times, although ran on with plenty of zest.

A flattish, uncomplicated 6f on decent but not fast ground looks possibly ideal, and even more so as he drops down in class again. Even though this competitive, it’s easier than the last two races.

He also produced a huge effort on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk, where he achieved a 72 speed rating as well. It’s fair to assume, now fully fit, track, trip and ground possibly to suit, he can improve back to the level he showed in Ireland before.

10pts win – Huddle Up @ 13/2

……

5.13 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Huge chance for Shine’s Ambition to win a race. This is a poor race, and his most recent effort at this track, albeit over an additional furlong, was huge.

The form looks good with the second having won well in the meantime. The drop to 6 furlongs seems sure to suit and he looks to have the ideal draw to grab that far rail.

Last time over 7 furlongs he enjoyed a quick start, led from the front as part of duo and travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. He was beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden, but he ran twice 62+ speed ratings in the past and now down to a 62 mark with the drop to 6f he’s really interesting off a career-lowest mark.

10pts win – Shine’s Ambition @ 11/2

…..

8.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

How far is Essme going to win this? I guess it depends how she got out of bed. The mare is hardly the most trustworthy horse to back.

In saying that, if she can run to the level of form shown last time over this course and distance she’s likely to win this. That was a strong performance, the runner-up won in the meantime, and this time she has a better draw.

Three weeks ago she tracked the pace on the far side, was quite prominently ridden. She travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages.

She did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD, and also represented a career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground is ideal, which she finds here.

10pts win – Essme @ 11/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #5

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Spartan Arrow
05/06/23 – 5.15 Windsor:

Touched rival soon after the start, lit up as a consequence and seriously keen for most of the race. Was still going strongly on the bridle over 2f out but got stuck behind a wall of horses. Delayed effort, switched to the inside eventually and ran on strongly, although appeared awkward still.

Clearly talented and better than current mark. Was heavily bumped lto at York too, when seemingly coming with a challenge. Tricky sort who will need a pace to chase.

Race Replay

Captain Vallo
05/06/23 – 4.00 Thirsk:

Widest draw away from favourable stands’ side. Travelled strongly prominently in his group, excellent progress before getting tired in the last half furlong.

Superb comeback run. Not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6f on decent to fast ground in an easier race could be interesting, or else worth to wait for a drop by a couple of pounds.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
06/06/23 – 5.30 Lingfield:

Wide draw, had to settle off the pace. Travelled well, good progress over 2f out but had a lot to do. Finished much the best.

Winner in the making, if the handicapper doesn’t react harshly. Excuse Windsor on heavy going. Strong form prior at Lingfield behind well-handicapped winner.

Lightly raced and could still offer more going up in trip as well to try a mile.

Race Replay

Ignac Lamar
06/06/23 – 5.05 Leicester:

Quickly forward, led as part of duo on far side. Gutsy and only went down fighting late. Seriously strong form on speed ratings and form of winner and second.

Possibly better on AW. Down to latest AW winning mark currently and of interest if turned out soon on sand, though also turf not out of it, ideally 6f, may not totally get 7f. Didn’t have many realistic opportunities over 6f on turf.

Race Replay

Lola’s Moment
06/06/23 – 5.45 Wetherby:

Slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually led from 2f out until approaching the final furlong. Briefly accepted challenge before she ran out of gas for good.

Comeback after a break since September 2022. Looks potentially exposed but may be capable o progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look hers.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). She should drop further in her mark and may be underestimated over fast five with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ricksen
06/06/23 – 8.30 Wetherby:

Led, though pestered. Travelled full of enthusiasm. Challenged from over 2f out on both sides but kept going strongly and came back for more in the final furlong.

Winner and second were probably well-handicapped, therefore the form has some substance.

7f may be ideal as he can be keen. Could be well able to win one of these low grade races in a race with little pace competition. On a fair mark.

Race Replay

Marksman Queen
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Sluggish start, travelled well off the pace. Held together until about 2f out. Strong response when asked for effort as she cam home much the best over the last two furlongs in particular.

The hood may took off some of her early excitement. She was keen prior, when winning twice on the All-Weather. She may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now.

Given her breeding it’s fair to assume she will improve for switching to turf on fast ground. Remains to be seen how much she has in hand, but intriguing in those conditions.

Race Replay

Beccara Rose
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Bit slowly away, soon recovered to race about in midfield. Kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fast over the last three furlongs.

Looks possibly well-handicapped if she switches back to turf on decent ground. Didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action and her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on good to form.

Was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on debut – in soft – last year, though. Should be capable to move up in trip, as well.

Race Replay

The Cruising Lord
07/06/23 – 3.45 Newbury:

Showed good early speed. Kicked well over 2f out. Got tired approaching the final furlong. Excellent return off a long break. Down to a sexy mark if still with appetite.

Not as good as in the past but should be able to improve from this run and looks capable of winning off current 70 OR.

Especially interesting down to 5f again. Best over minimum trip on fast ground, although also capable to act on softer. Probably want to see ideal conditions these days.

Ran really well over 6f nto at Salisbury for a long time in a good race.

Race Replay

Dynamite Katie
07/06/23 – 4.20 Newbury:

Set off at a rapid clip. She ran the first four furlongs faster than the preceding 6f Handicap and the first three furlongs faster than all the other sprint races on the same card, while racing over 7 furlongs herself. She never was likely to get home.

This was her handicap debut and first time on turf. She may have been outclassed here anyway. 7f is a stretch in Handicap company I reckon. A drop to 6f on decent ground could be interesting.

Race Replay

Le Brok Cafe
07/06/23 – 2.00 Newbury:

Rapid start, excellent early speed. Goin okay to 3f out before under pressure. Fell away quickly. Ran better than the price. Probably good form.

Only second career-run. Will be interesting once she qualified for a mark, perhaps mostly as she drops to the minimum trip as well.

Race Replay

Pearle D’or
08/06/23 – 6.40 Yarmouth:

Quickly established lead. Enjoyed the front, kicked on well from 2f out and broke the hearts of most, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace.

2nd start of new yard, changed hands for 40k. Showed some promise in Ireland and may have more to offer on decent ground. May not be out of question he stays 7f either.

Has ran at Hamilton in the meantime. And odd ride, which I’m prepared to forgive.

Race Replay

Lordsbridge Girl
08/06/23 – 8.40 Yarmouth:

Good start, tracked the early pace, ever so slightly disadvantaged by the shifting leader early on. Badly shot of room from over 2f out all the way to the final furlong practically, where she ran home strongly.

Huge run. In line with what she showed on the AW. A mile is absolute maximum. Probably best over 7f with pace but fast ground a mile not out of it. She’s still quite unexposed on turf.

Excellent nto run with strong speed rating. Made effort on the outside away from the rail which didn’t seem ideal on the day. Likely strong form.

Race Replay

Bell Song
08/06/23 – 8.50 Chelmsford:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Didn’t get in and was caught wide approaching the turn and had to move forward for a slightly improved position. Impressive how she was able to kick and stay well to the line despite all the trouble.

Handicap debut, looks capable to win off her mark, especially based on her seasonal reappearance at Southwell, which was seriously strong form. A strong pace over 7f should help. Unexposed on turf.

Ran an unfortunate race at Sandown in the meantime. Did well in the circumstances and better than that.

Race Replay

Khanjar
08/06/23 – 3.35 Hamilton:

Slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw ad racing wide away from the usually more favoured stands’ side. Made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Ran 4 (+ equal in one) of 6 furlongs faster than the eventual winner.

Can’t be harshly assessed for this and remains of interest. Didn’t run quite a speed ratings in the 90s but looks capable. Bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps.

Ran better at York on his seasonal debut than bare result. Strong, galloping sort who stays well up a stiff finish.

Race Replay

Lady Lade
09/06/23 – 1.40 Thirsk:

Clear disadvantage being drawn low and away from the pace. After a solid start lost quickly a lot of ground, about 7 lengths behind the leader 3f out.

Made tremendous progress against the bias and finished much the best over the last 3f, although paid a bit of tribute in the closing stages to a strong mid-race splits.

Only won once in handicap company, off 68 last year, ran to 66 speed rating. becomes quite competitive now off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Mrs Trump
09/06/23 – 3.10 Thirsk:

Tough from the #1 draw, moved quickly toward the centre. Bit short of room when a gap closed and she had to delay her effort and be switched. Ran very well given the circumstances.

Clearly in strong form. Ran a huge race last time at Ripon and had excuses at Southwell, too. Still a maiden but dangerous once she gets a good draw.

Race Replay

Wedgewood
09/06/23 – 2.00 Brighton:

Badly bumped soon after the start, still moved rapidly forward and let first 2-3f at a fast pace. Gradually tired.

Ran better than bare performance lto too. Finished tired last two now, maybe needs a small break. Interesting afterwards. off possibly revised mark over 5f on turf still, may not stay 6f, also may be better on AW but could be capable on turf too.

Won seriously well when last seen on AW and ran a good race at Windsor in a really hot Handicap in the meantime.

Race Replay

Fragrence
10/06/23 – 6.55 Chepstow:

Blistering early speed, led by a couple of lengths. Gradually tired. Small field but very strong race with rivals in good form.

Ran to multiple speed ratings last season that suggest she is capable off her revised 60 mark. Dangerous in the easier race where she can lead on decent ground over 5f.

Race Replay

Raasel
10/06/23 – 1.15 Haydock:

Probably not quite advantaged by having to make his effort on the widest outside against the far rail after travelling well held up until over 2f out. Made huge progress thanks to fastest furlong two out, before getting understandably tired late.

Huge run, still run fastest the last 3f. Can be forgiven previous Haydock run due to severe draw bias and ran well on his seasonal reappearance. Could be underestimated next time.

Not disgraced in hot Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the meantime.

Race Replay

El Caballo
10/06/23 – 3.35 Haydock:

Slightly awkward start. Tracked the pace in third, was going well and waiting to make a challenge from three furlongs out. Couldn’t get a run on the inside, was several times short of room and hampered 1f out. Finished easy on the eye.

Excellent run and may have gone closer with clear run. Not sure he truly stays 7f at this level on turf, but chance given on fast ground. Probably better over 6f. Obviously superb on sand, but may be underestimated on turf.

Race Replay

Royal Charter
10/06/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Seriously keen when held up early on. Was going okay and kept up to work from over 3f out, but route to progress closed until over 1f out behind horses as she was also hanging to the left. Finished much the best.

Strong seasonal reappearance. Obviously more to come. Does stay 7f no problems. Needs to settle better and follow a strong pace. Drop to 6f not out of question, either.

Race Replay

Ascot Adventure
10/06/23 – 2.40 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a duo. Rolled down the hill, quite inefficient sectionals. Was able to actually kick on somewhat in the home straight once again. Impressive, before getting tired late.

Huge run. Joint career-2nd best speed rating (78). 7.5f stretches his stamina. Best over 7f, ground independent. Also 6f with plenty of cut possible.

Down to good mark. Any additional help from the handicapper a bonus as he looks in top form in the right race.

Was seriously disappointing at Thirsk in the meantime. However, deserves another chance as the ground turned that day and the race developed into a strange one down the stands’ rail.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
10/06/23 – 3.20 Catterick:

Great early pace. Led early on, but always pressured. Did way too much in the first half of the race and did extremely well to finish as well as he did.

In superb form this year. Ran to 61 speed rating when winning at Beverley. Possibly a touch better on decent ground. Down to fair mark and capable of winning still. Ran to better speed ratings last season and looks in similar form.

Race Replay

Physique
11/06/23 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Caught wide and without cover from the highest draw. Couldn’t get in until halfway through the race. Gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by then. Got ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2f out before he finished the fastest over the last two furlongs regardless.

Fair to say with a better draw and run he would have won. Lightly raced, has scope off his current mark as he should be should be already a 95+ horse.

Has shown he handles fast ground without a problem. Should have options to stay a mile but maybe too keen at this stage of his career.

Ran a big race for a long time in a hot Handicap at Royal Ascot in the meantime. Maybe didn’t quite get home over the stiff mile there.

Race Replay

First Ruler
11/06/23 – 4.25 Goodwood:

Trailed the small field. Looked a bit awkward around the home turn, probably not helped that the pace increased significantly at that point. Niggled and reminder received and had to made progress right into the fastest part of the race, no advantage from off the pace. Ran home strongest.

Return run. Deserves and upgrade. Ran a 91 speed rating in Meydan when winning over 12f. and seems still progressive with age and maturity.

Stays the trip obviously, but would love to see him over 10f with a fast pace to chase. Could bring out improvement and maybe good enough to land a Group 3. Didn’t have many opportunities of that sort.

Race Replay

Mattice
11/06/23 – 3.45 Beverley:

Started quickly, did a lot in the first three furlongs to grab the lead and stay there. Tired badly in the final furlong. Strong run, competitive race.

Comes slowly down in ratings and class. Ran often in ultra-competitive races. Looks capable still, certainly in an easier race, where he can dominate.

Race Replay

Winter Crown
11/06/23 – 5.15 Beverley:

Second widest draw, caught wide early, then caught behind a wall of horses. Had to delay his run and fight for a gab to finally get out in the clear, re-organise himself with less than a furlong to go to run home strongly.

Was unfortunate from a poor draw, away from the pace, and short of room lto as well. Clearly better than OR 76. Should be hard to beat if moving back up to 6f, but a stiff 5f seem fine too. Fast ground no issue.

Race Replay

La Roca Del Fuego
12/06/23 – 5.08 Windsor:

Started quickly, led against the inside rail, under pressure as he stayed there while main bunch went away from the inside. Weakened rapidly. Rain and ground probably turned against him.

Better on AW and definitely needs fast ground on turf. Was well-backed here, and ran with plenty of credit from the front lto. Down to dangerous mark on turf and sand over 5f.

Race Replay

Dulcet Sprit
12/06/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Moved forward to grab the lead and led by a couple of lengths setting a good, honest, even pace. Was much faster through the first half than the eventual winner and second. Showed good attitude right to the line.

First time on turf, definitely looks like one who enjoys fast ground. Wasn’t expected, and neither in her last starts. Won well off 58 on the AW and should come down to intriguing mark on turf as well, especially in a race where she can dominate.

Wouldn’t be out of it if she drops to 6f in a race with not much pace to compete. Ideally see her drop below a mark off 58.

Race Replay

Get Off Me
12/06/23 – 5.00 Lingfield:

Started alright, got to the rail and led, did more than the rest in a hotly contested run. Excellent 4f performance before tired badly, although quite understandable given the early exertions.

Followed on nicely from huge run lto on the AW when he finished seriously strongly in a hot race for the grade, after missing the break. Can be sluggish at the start. Maybe headgear can help.

Looks to have pace for the minimum trip certainly. Huge runner if he drops back in grade with a solid start.

Race Replay

Grant Wood
12/06/23 – 8.30 Pontefract:

Wide draw, slowly away, perhaps by design. Settled in rear, trailing as the field turned for home. Loads to do but kept answering calls and accelerated well making solid progress against the inside. Not quite clear run over 1f out and jockey seemed happy enough to concede defeat.

Wasn’t in it to go close. Changed yards. Seasonal reappearance. Should come one and probably be better over 7f. Ran 72 speed rating last year. Up in trip and some money in the betting will tell whether the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Jimmy Lifestyle
13/06/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Covered up early, tried to unwind for challenge from over 3f out on the outside which seemed a difficult place to come from. Didn’t get overly hard ride and ran on well to the line.

Looks a big lad and may improve with racing. Up in trip to 7f could be interesting of a revised mark as he may not quite have the speed for 6f.

Race Replay

Sam’s Call
15/06/23 – 4.20 Nottingham:

Not ideally drawn and slightly bumped by rival out of the gate. Not ideally placed behind horses and short of room 2f out, had to switch ever so slightly, lost momentum, before running home strongly. Finished 3 of last 4 furlongs faster than well-handicapped winner. Good form.

Can hit flat spot in the middle of his races. Best over 5f. Down to dangerous mark, although not prolific and doesn’t deserve many chances.

Race Replay

Rum Cocktail
15/06/23 – 7.10 Haydock:

Travelled in rear before making ever so slightly progress while niggled covered up behind a wall of horses, never seemed to be entirely happy. Bulldozed her way through a gap from 2f out, shifted, slightly unbalanced before galvanized to mount challenge.

Finished joint best last 3f. Bit unlucky to finish only 3rd. Down to good mark. Ran solid speed ratings this year already. Dangerous over minimum trip on decent ground, but 6f could be worth a try and unlock improvement too.

Race Replay

Azazat
16/06/23 – 6.35 Cork:

Close up with the pace, tracked the leader. Was going well, but got stuck behind the first two from 3f out which gave the eventual winner the opportunity for a decisive move. Switched 2f out and found plenty for pressure.

Unfortunate, but strong form. Excellent 96 speed rating which gives her a crack at Graded race. Still lightly enough race to see some improvement that would see her competitive against the better 3yo fillies over 12f.

Race Replay

Tafreej
17/06/23 – 3.20 Chester:

Not ideally drawn and bit slowly away, confined to the rear of the field. Got unbalanced around the home turn as she was also short of room until hitting the straight. Ran home the fastest.

Still unexposed and looks certainly ready to move up in trip. The dam won over 1m 4f. Interesting over a mile at least, and offers potential off 84.

Race Replay

Rathbone
17/06/23 – 5.25 York:

Excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long.

This was a competitive race. Ran well in good Handicap lto. Clearly back in form and could win in a less competitive race and a front-runner track. Won off 90 and ran to 86 speed rating last summer. Maybe not quite as good these days but on a dangerous mark.

Race Replay

Tees George
18/06/23 – 5.00 Doncaster:

Bumped early on by a rival. Settled in rear. Was able to answer the accelerations after a pedestrian opening, and ran on well on the outside, easily under hands and heels in the final furlong.

Should certainly for a step up in trip. 7-8f probably no issue at all on pedigree. Still lightly raced and mark 0f 60 offers opportunities.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 10th June 2023

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As I increase the volume there’s going to be blanks days nonetheless. Must say I was quietly confident Friday wouldn’t be one, though.

In the end what’s left is a second and a third place. Not good when you have five chances and four of those are expected to be close.

Cuban Breeze was the one who came closest… within half a lengths of victory. The rest, never looked like winning, truth told.

The one I’d like to have back is Belsito. I still like the horse and his chances in general, however the low draw diminished his chances right away and I should have seen it coming – or, at least take that more into account for the price. 9/2 was a silly price to take. A poor value selection.

……

1.15 Haydock: Listed Achilles Stakes, 5f

A strong field for a listed contest. Equilateral may get the perfect race from his draw and wit the likely pace scenario, though at prices I can’t leave Raasel unbacked.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the straight track rides, but the fact he could have a pace to chase on his side from the #1 draw as well for potentially an easy route out on the outside for a challenge is something possibly positive.

He can be clearly forgiven the recent Temple Stakes run, as it’s widely known how the draw played a major role in the outcome of that race. The same could happen here.

It’s a smaller field, there is a different pace scenario, on the other hand, and that may even things out.

Raasel left an unsatisfying Meydan adventure behind when he returned to more familiar shores with an excellent 4th place in the Palace House Stakes. he achieved a 98 speed rating there, the best anyone in this field ran this year so far.

Fast ground is no issue for him. As long as Haydock rides fairer than a few weeks ago he looks a huge price here.

10pts win – Raasel @ 11/2

……….

3.20 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Fiftyshadesofred looks seriously well-handicapped if he can put his best foot forward. Hee’s a tricky lad, yet he has ran two strong speed ratings in two of his last three races, both over 7 furlongs.

Last time at Ayr he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.

Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.

It should be ideal that there’s a lot of pace to be expected here in this race. He has a good draw to follow it, as long as she starts well. That should help him to settle.

William Pyle is a competent 7lb claimer. This weight allowance can only help; on the other hand he’s a tricky ride. So some risks are attached.

10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Winforglory is up in class here but should still be well capable of winning in this grade, especially over 7 furlongs on fast ground. The hood is back on, which hopefully helps him to settle better, as he can be quite keen.

Even though he won over a mile on the sand, I’m not sure he would get a truly run race on turf, especially a demanding course like Chepstow. Hence this 7 furlongs test could be ideal.

The gelding was catching the eye with his last two runs -first at Chelmsford, his second run off a 207 day break, when a bit unfortunate being a clear run denied in the home straight. Perhaps even more so when last seen at Lingfield:

That day he tracked the hot early pace but he was seriously keen with the hood off, did way too much too soon. I was impressed how he was still able to kick on and challenge for the win, less than two lengths beaten in 3rd eventually.

A strong 75 speed rating gives the performance merit. He looks clearly capable to win off his current mark and should be some pounds better. The jockey booking is a risk, though. This 7lb claimer just doesn’t win races and usually rides horses to lose.

10pts win – Winforglory @ 4/1

……….

One more I’m interested in but not any price able to get tonight, waiting for what the market says tomorrow and then going to decide….

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #4

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Lil Guff
22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:

Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.

Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.

A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.

Race Replay

Good Earth
22/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.

Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.

Race Replay

Albegone
22/05/23 – 2.35 Carlisle:

Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.

Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.

Race Replay

Fiftyshadesofred
23/05/23 – 8.30 Ayr:

Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.

Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.

Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.

Race Replay

Mr Beaufort
24/05/23 – 4.30 Ayr:

Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.

Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.

Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.

Race Replay

Jojo Rabbit
24/05/23 – 4.30 Ayr:

Pushed a hot pace from the front with Mr Beaufort. Didn’t last quite as long but still showed a good attitude here. Strong form most likely.

Ran twice to higher speed ratings than his current 75 mark. Flexible regarding ground but decent to fast ground ideal over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

The Waiting Game
25/05/23 – 5.12 Catterick:

Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.

Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.

Race Replay

Lulworth Cove
25/05/23 – 3.30 Haydock:

Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.

Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.

Race Replay

Griggy
26/05/23 – 4.30 Bath:

Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.

Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.

Race Replay

Half Nutz
26/05/23 – 7.00 Curragh:

Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.

Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.

Race Replay

Vegas Jack
26/05/23 – 5.00 Haydock:

Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.

Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.

Race Replay

Canute
27/05/23 – 4.15 Curragh:

Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.

Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.

If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.

Race Replay

Farnborough:
27/05/23 – 4.15 Curragh:

Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.

Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.

Race Replay

Bodorgan
27/05/23 – 2.25 Haydock:

His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.

May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.

Race Replay

Happy Romance
27/05/23 – 3.30 Haydock:

Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.

Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.

Race Replay

De Bruyne
27/05/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.

Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.

Race Replay

Roman Dragon
27/05/23 – 4.45 Haydock:

Grabbed the lead, set solid pace, travelled strongly to 2f marker. Fought gamely but empty half a furlong from home.

Maybe doesn’t quite get 7f. All wins over 6f. Down to 80 could be dangerous if he drops down in trip again. Ran last year twice 82+ speed ratings.

Race Replay

Cairo
27/05/23 – 3.40 Curragh:

Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.

Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.

Race Replay

Batchelor Boy
30/05/23 – 4.10 Brighton:

Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.

Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.

Race Replay

Thegreatestshowman
30/05/23 – 8.45 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.

Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.

Race Replay

Shine’s Ambition
30/05/23 4.20 Redcar:

Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.

Race Replay

Antagonize
30/05/23 – 4.55 Redcar:

Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.

Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.

Race Replay

Giant
01/06/23 – 4.30 Yarmouth:

Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.

Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.

Race Replay

Cubanista
01/06/23 – 5.00 Yarmouth:

Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.

May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.

Race Replay

Eagle Day
02/06/23 – 5.05 Doncaster:

Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.

Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.

Race Replay

Stalingrad
02/06/23 – 9.00 Catterick:

Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.

Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.

Race Replay

Nibras Rainbow
03/06/23 – 7.10 Lingfield:

Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.

Race Replay

Essme
03/06/23 – 8.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.

Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.

Race Replay

Coumshingaun
03/06/23 – 3.00 Listowel:

Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.

Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.

Race Replay

Latin Five
04/06/23 – 5.15 Nottingham:

Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.

Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.

He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.

Race Replay

……..

Epsom Derby
03/06/23 – 1.30 Epsom:

A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.

King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.

White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.

Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.

It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.

He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.

Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.

Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.

He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.

Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.

Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.

However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.

Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.

He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.

Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 6th June 2023

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Stay Smart did well to win at Ayr as he held on by a head. He was all out after setting a seriously hot pace and showed great attitude to get home at 3/1 SP.

Rule 4 hurt me here, though. Yet, I was relived. A winner, and any losses minimized for the day, no matter what.

Cuban Breeze was the one I fancied most to provide a second winner. He finished a gallant second but didn’t have enough early speed to get to the lead which went Aberama Gold’s way who went wire to to wire, instead. Perhaps I was too optimistic about Cuban Breeze’s early pace against another seriously fast starter.

Late Arrival never stood a chance from his draw and perhaps I should have seen that coming. I glanced too quickly over this major negative. Hopefully he can come good the next time.

Folk Star finished 3rd but never looked like winning. She didn’t get a run at a crucial stage and didn’t have the change of gear from off the pace. My Mate Mike was withdrawn after he broke through the gate.

……

3.30 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Is Makeen too obvious to be true? Only the blind could have missed the hugely eyecatching performance at Newmarket last month.

He traveled strongly behind a wall of horses for much of the race. Waited for room until very late when switched to the inside and ran on easily for third with the fastest final furlong split.

It was a near career-best effort without a clear run. What is clear: the gelding is in peak form. In saying that, he wouldn’t be obviously well-handicapped on ratings.

But it seems clear that 7 furlongs on fast ground could be an ideal scenario for him. He didn’t have many chances of this sort, yet. Is there some improvement left in these conditions? Possibly.

In any case, he should be not left on a mark off 80 after that last run. The 3lb claim of Ryan Sexton is the cherry on the cake in a race where there isn’t too much to fear in terms of rivals to beat, even though he moves up in to 0-85.

10pts win Makeen @ 7/2

……

5.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Regal Glory returns to what may well be her optimum trip and track and looks ready to strike thanks to a lowered mark and a good draw to find a handy position in the field.

The filly caught numerous times the eye in the last few weeks and months. She achieved an excellent 57 speed rating off a 51 mark in November over this CD. She followed up with a couple of strong efforts, especially the February 3rd place here once again caught my eye.

Her subsequent runs were better than the bare form, but it’s her latest run over 6f here at Lingfield only five days ago that may rate as her strongest yet.

From a wide draw she travelled in rear, made strong progress on the wide outside, turned wide and yet finished strongly.

She drops to a 50 OR now – she won off the same mark last November over this course and distance – has the #4 draw to attack the race from, over 7 furlongs at Lingfield. Huge chance to add a second CD success to her name.

10pts win – Regal Glory @ 5/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 30th May 2023

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5.25 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Spartan Fighter returns to turf off a 10lb lower mark than his current All-Weather rating. He ran with plenty of credit on the sand in recent weeks and is potent on turf as well, so he could be quite well-handicapped today.

He drops to 6 furlongs as well, which is more his trip than when last seen over 7f at Wolverhampton. There he also had to overcome the widest draw and did a lot to get to the front. It was no surprise to see him fading from 2f out.

There’s no doubt he outran his odds more often than not in his last handful or so runs. He caught the eye in no uncertain terms at Newcastle in March when 4th in a hot race. He travelled pretty well, made good progress on the outside and only dropped away late in the day.

He wasn’t as good next time, but it was a strange run, and looked back to decent form in the aforementioned Wolverhampton race.

He also drops in class today and looks seriously dangerous on ground and trip to suit. The 5lb claim of his rider should be useful as well. Obviously he didn’t have many opportunities on grass in the last twelve month, and there is a question as to why that’s the case.

Though, past turf speed ratings give him a huge chance here off his 56 rating in this contest.

10pts win – Spartan Fighter @ 6/1

……….

6.45 Tipperary: Handicap, 5f

Lokada was a strong runner-up at Naas behind Harry’s Hill three weeks ago. She meets this rival, who was seriously well-handicapped then, on better terms today and also may not have to fight the draw bias as was the case at Naas.

That day she was prominent on the far side, while Harry’s Hill enjoyed the advantage of racing against the stands’ side. She travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran on strongly up the hill to get up late for 2nd place to win his group.

He’s 2lb higher today, which is a fair hike by Irish standards. She also ran to 70 speed rating at Naas and an impressive 81 on the AW last year.

The Naas form should be strong and there’s every chance the relatively lightly filly can continue to progress, as her last two runs can be upgraded – Naas, as mentioned, but also her run prior at Dundalk warranted an upgrade.

10pts win – Lokada @ 7/2

……..

8.10 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Nogo’s Dream drops in class and should find this much easier than the last two times at Newmarket and Ascot. The fast ground is a slight question mark, but you would hope he acts on it.

In any case he looks a progressive sort. He won a maiden over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton in March and caught the eye the next time at Newmarket.

He travelled strongly, made smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but got badly tired eventually.

Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. And the same could be possibly said the last time at Ascot. In deep ground 6f maybe stretched him a little it too much.

This race is easier. 6f on decent ground should help. He looks underestimated off his 77 handicap mark as the handicapper raised him only by a single pound for those last two strong efforts.

10pts win – Nogo’s Dream @ 4/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #2

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

Serious Look
25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:

Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.

Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.

Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.

Race Replay

I’m Mable
26/04/23 – 7.55 Lingfield:

Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.

Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.

Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

Spanish Angel
26/04/23 – 1.50 Catterick:

Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.

Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.

He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.

Race Replay

Soul Seeker
27/04/23 – 2.20 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.

Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.

Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.

Race Replay

Lord Rapscallion
27/04/23 – 6.15 Chelmsford:

Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.

Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.

Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.

Race Replay

Platinum Girl
28/04/23 – 5.35 Doncaster:

Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.

Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.

Race Replay

Lotus Rose
29/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.

Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.

Race Replay

Glorious Rio
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.

Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.

Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.

Race Replay

Dream Together
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.

Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.

Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.

Race Replay

Forward Flight
30/04/23 – 3.35 Wetherby:

Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.

Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.

Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.

Race Replay

Belsito
30/04/23 – 3.45 Musselburgh:

Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.

Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.

Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Eponina
01/05/23 – 4.03 Beverley:

Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.

Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.

Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.

Race Replay

Master Sully
01/05/23 – 3.33 Bath:

First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.

Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.

Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.

Race Replay

Sir Titan
02/05/23 – 1.50 Brighton:

Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.

Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.

Race Replay

Mount Mogan
03/05/23 – 6.10 Brighton:

Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.

Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.

Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Hardy Angel
03/05/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.

Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.

Race Replay

Fiscal Policy
03/05/23 – 9.00 Kempton:

Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.

Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Shabaaby
04/05/23 – 2.00 Ayr:

Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.

Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.

Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.

Race Replay

Gullane One
04/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.

Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.

Race Replay

Big R
04/05/23 – 2.10 Salisbury:

At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.

Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.

Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.

Race Replay

Michaels Choice
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.

Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.

Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

With Respect
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.

Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.

Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.

Race Replay

Capofan
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.


Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.

Race Replay


B Associates
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.


Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.

Race Replay

Azano
05/05/23 – 5.20 Newmarket:

Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.

Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.

Race Replay

Island Star
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.

Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Vecchio
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.

Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Straits Of Moyle
06/05/23 – 2.00 Thirsk:

Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.

Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.

Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.

Race Replay

Lokada
06/05/23 – 1.35 Naas:

Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.

Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.

Race Replay