Tag Archives: Tipperary

Sunday Selections: Queen’s Jewel Ready To Bounce Back!

October 4, 2015 Florian Christoph Leave a comment

1.35 Longchamp: Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1)

I stick to Herald The Dawn – was keen on him in the National Stakes when the ground turned soft though, which is not ideal. He finished a decent second behind classy Air Force Blue nonetheless. To an extend he followed up on his gutsy Futurity Stakes success, where he overcame softish conditions.

But the full-brother to Dawn Approach is a top of the ground horse as Jim Bolger pointed out, so today’s conditions at Longchamp do very much favour him. If he is as classy as his trainer says he is, he’ll be a big runner. With the benefit of the doubt, I give him this chance here.

Herald The Dawn @ 9/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.10 Longchamp: Prix de l’Opera (Group 1)

Queen’s Jewel was a very short favourite to land the Diane earlier this year. She seemingly had problems that day, though, reportedly bleeding, that you can easily forgive her the poor showing there. The filly is much better judged on her utterly impressive display in the Saint-Alary, when she overcame greenness as well as a wide passage.

The Freddy Head inmate looked special that day, which was the reason for her short odds in the French Oaks. Her break since then may be a blessing in disguise, given that she arrives as a fresh horse here. Still lightly raced, you would assume there is more to come from here.

Queen’s Jewel @ 13/2 VC – 5pts Win

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3.45 Tipperary: Istabraq Hurdle (Grade 2)

This should be a battle between the two Tony Martin inmates Thomas Edison and Ted Vale. The latter one finished an excellent third in the Galway hurdle, while having been caught a bit too far off the pace and in slight in-running trouble at a crucial time turning for home. He travelled strongly, though, coming with a big challenge jumping the last, when his stable mate Thomas Edision, equally looking to win the race, fell and hampered Ted Vale.

On that form, both horses are closely matched, although Thomas Edision stands better in the weights today, and potentially has a bit more room for improvement, while we basically know what Ted Vale is. However given the discrepancy in price, it is easy for me to go with Ted Vale here.

Ted Vale @ 3/1 Bet365 – 10pts Win

Global Racing

Friday Selections: Golden opportunity for Dikta Del Mar

August 7, 2015 Florian Christoph Leave a comment

3.10 Lingfield: Maiden Stakes, 1m 5f

Realistically there are only two horses in this race with a chance to win. That is obviously the short odds-on favourite Mr Cripps. His last form in a super hot Newbury maiden reads very strong and he has a prime chance if fit after a 3 month long lay-off, and if he takes to the All-Weather.

Second favourite Etibaar is an interesting alternative, though. He was quite a costly yearling, has a stellar pedigree but hasn’t lived up to it yet. He did okay in three maidens before moving into handicap company the last time. Blinkers fitted didn’t have the desired effect. He was way too keen.

These are off today. Connections used a little break to geld him which could have a huge impact given that his sire Kitten’s Joy has a tremendous record with his first time gelded sons. The switch to the All-Weather should also suit perfectly, given his US pedigree. Only slight concern is the trip.

At 4/1 I feel it is worth a nibble in this otherwise uncompetitive maiden. Mr Cripps may prove too good. But any weakness will be exploited by Etibaar who has a better chance to win than 20% in my book.

Etibaar @ 4/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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5.35 Tipperary: Abergwaun Stakes (Listed), 5f

The 3yo filly Dikta Del Mar must have a massive chance here. Unfortunately I realized this too late and the price is tumbling. Nonetheless 9/2 proves value given that she hasn’t been disgraced in a couple of hot races this year, following on from last seasons Listed success in France.

She clearly loves it soft and will appreciate these conditions today. I expect her to bounce back from a poor effort at Goodwood, where quick conditions didn’t suit. The drop into Listed class will help today, so will be the tons of weight she received all around.

Dikta Del Mar @ 9/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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6.05 Tipperary: Class 1 Handicap, 5f

Ultra competitive race and I like a couple of these. But for price reasons I can’t ignore A Few Dollars More who is surely too big at 18/1. He wasn’t seen to best effect at the Curragh the last time but might be better judged when there is a bit of juice in the ground as happened on his penultimate start when he won a Cork sprint. This form works out very well.

He is down to this very same mark again, and while this here is a stronger race, he gets in off an absolute feather weight. My perception is that with the soft going likely to suit today, he can be better than his current mark off 76.

A Few Dollars More @ 18/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Ireland

Kimbay’s A Big Price In Tipperary Sprint!

June 4, 2015 Florian Christoph Leave a comment

6.00 Tipperary: Handicap (3yo), 5f

This is a competitive sprint Handicap where cases can be made aplenty. Top weight My Good Brother may struggle of a mark off 96 on ground which is much softer than ideal. 93 rated Zalty could well have a big say, though, if he is race fit and can handle the drop to the minimum trip. His close runner-up effort in a tough Premier Handicap over 6f at the Curragh when last seen almost seven month ago gives him a prime chance.

Ger Lyons’ Joe Eile took advantage off a slipping mark last month when landing a sprint Handicap at Navan. Seven pounds up for this success makes life tougher now. In Salutem was an eye-catching second that day and followed up with another strong performance at the Curragh when not having the run of the race. He probably need things to fall right for him to win off his current mark but is an obvious contender nonetheless.

Prince Connoisseur was progressive last season and may have still more to offer. Improvement has to come if he wants to compete in this race. Back from a seasonal break, fitness is a question mark. Lady Mega only got a run late at Navan last month and has form in her book suggesting she has a prime chance today with additional five pound claim from her jockey. Probably not quite ideal is the softish ground, though.

I’m most interested in Kimbay – again. I was already intrigued by her when she kicked off her new campaign last month. Then in a competitive 6f Handicap, she was up with the pace, travelled strongly and just got tired in the closing stages. She is expected to come on for the run and the drop to 5f should definitely suit – she is still unbeaten over this trip.

Still not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, Kimbay can race off a featherweight here once again and judged on her steady progress last year, she may be well handicapped, as she was dropped a pound since her last run. She won four races and been only beaten by a head in the other two starts in 2014 – so there is every chance for more to come. A career best is required today, though, as she is up by 6lb for last success at Dundalk in December when she won a very competitive 5f sprint – this form worked out very well.

Kimbay @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win