Tag Archives: Handicap

Betting

Saturday Selections: 24th June 2023

Leave a comment

2-2-3-3-4-5-14. That’s how my selections finished. What a disaster of a day Friday was.

Although, Remarquee came rather close to winning at 33s, but ultimately, I don’t think the slight interference made a significant difference, being totally honest.

To make matters worse, Coppice won the Sandringham (one of my horses to follow but didn’t back here) and Alseeyerthere won the Redcar race – a huge eyecatcher last time out, but I decided to go with ungenuine Fiftyshadesofred at a poor price.

The margins of error are small in this game. Sometimes it’s down to luck, sometimes down to poor decision making. Poor decisions eats profit, though. Always.

….

3.05 Ascot: Group 3 Jersey Stakes, 7f

Enfajaar is one of my horses to follow this season and he showed nothing but an abundance of talent on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month.

He was a little bit keen early on, but then travelled strongly and kicked clear in the most impressive fashion in the final furlong.

The drop in trip is a slight question mark, because he may also stay a bit further than a mile. But this lad isn’t short of speed, at all. He can accelerate rapidly.

The stiff 7 furlongs at Ascot, with a good pace to chase, having likely front-running Covey drawn close by, could be a perfect scenario.

One only has to watch back his impressive debut performance at Newmarket last year over 7 furlongs, where he accelerated in impressive style from 3 furlongs out and stayed strongly to the line.

There is no doubt he’s pattern class, I believe. The only serious question mark I have is the fast ground. His two wins came on good to soft and on the All-Weather, he seems to hit the ground hard as well. If he acts on this surface, he should be the one to beat.

10pts win – Enfajaar @ 8/1

……

5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Khanjar can run off his old 97 mark here before it goes up soon. He is a somewhat tricky sort and new headgear must make a difference to help him with sharpness.

However, if that does help, he’s one who could be underestimated here, still. He looks to have a huge engine and the potential to improve again.

His form can be a bit hit and miss and difficult to read. He ran better at York on his seasonal debut than the bare result. And even better next time at Hamilton.

There he was slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw and racing wide, hence away from the usually more favoured stands’ side.

He made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Nonetheless, he ran four (+ equal in one) of six furlongs faster than the eventual winner, and was arguably unlucky.

I think it’s fair to say he has been a bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps he contest to date. Clearly there’s untapped potential. Whether it can be ever realised remains to be seen.

In any case he’s a strong, galloping sort who stays well over 6 furlongs and he should relish the stiff finish here at Ascot. The pace map looks somewhat puzzling, so there is a chance he’s not in the right spot.

10pts win – Khanjar @ 10/1

……….

……

3.52 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground.

However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well.

I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile:

He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn’t enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail.

I hope from the #1 draw he’ll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly.

Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.

10pts win – Vecchio @ 9/2

…..

4.14 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Wide open and competitive. Where’s the pace to come from? Probably more toward the far rail and high numbers. That is a positive as it brings Huddle Up right into the equation.

He showed excellent form in all starts this year and looked like he could be a bit better than his current 73 rating in the right race.

He was found out for speed and/or class over the minimum trip the last to times, although ran on with plenty of zest.

A flattish, uncomplicated 6f on decent but not fast ground looks possibly ideal, and even more so as he drops down in class again. Even though this competitive, it’s easier than the last two races.

He also produced a huge effort on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk, where he achieved a 72 speed rating as well. It’s fair to assume, now fully fit, track, trip and ground possibly to suit, he can improve back to the level he showed in Ireland before.

10pts win – Huddle Up @ 13/2

……

5.13 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Huge chance for Shine’s Ambition to win a race. This is a poor race, and his most recent effort at this track, albeit over an additional furlong, was huge.

The form looks good with the second having won well in the meantime. The drop to 6 furlongs seems sure to suit and he looks to have the ideal draw to grab that far rail.

Last time over 7 furlongs he enjoyed a quick start, led from the front as part of duo and travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. He was beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden, but he ran twice 62+ speed ratings in the past and now down to a 62 mark with the drop to 6f he’s really interesting off a career-lowest mark.

10pts win – Shine’s Ambition @ 11/2

…..

8.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

How far is Essme going to win this? I guess it depends how she got out of bed. The mare is hardly the most trustworthy horse to back.

In saying that, if she can run to the level of form shown last time over this course and distance she’s likely to win this. That was a strong performance, the runner-up won in the meantime, and this time she has a better draw.

Three weeks ago she tracked the pace on the far side, was quite prominently ridden. She travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages.

She did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD, and also represented a career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground is ideal, which she finds here.

10pts win – Essme @ 11/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #5

Leave a comment

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Spartan Arrow
05/06/23 – 5.15 Windsor:

Touched rival soon after the start, lit up as a consequence and seriously keen for most of the race. Was still going strongly on the bridle over 2f out but got stuck behind a wall of horses. Delayed effort, switched to the inside eventually and ran on strongly, although appeared awkward still.

Clearly talented and better than current mark. Was heavily bumped lto at York too, when seemingly coming with a challenge. Tricky sort who will need a pace to chase.

Race Replay

Captain Vallo
05/06/23 – 4.00 Thirsk:

Widest draw away from favourable stands’ side. Travelled strongly prominently in his group, excellent progress before getting tired in the last half furlong.

Superb comeback run. Not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6f on decent to fast ground in an easier race could be interesting, or else worth to wait for a drop by a couple of pounds.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
06/06/23 – 5.30 Lingfield:

Wide draw, had to settle off the pace. Travelled well, good progress over 2f out but had a lot to do. Finished much the best.

Winner in the making, if the handicapper doesn’t react harshly. Excuse Windsor on heavy going. Strong form prior at Lingfield behind well-handicapped winner.

Lightly raced and could still offer more going up in trip as well to try a mile.

Race Replay

Ignac Lamar
06/06/23 – 5.05 Leicester:

Quickly forward, led as part of duo on far side. Gutsy and only went down fighting late. Seriously strong form on speed ratings and form of winner and second.

Possibly better on AW. Down to latest AW winning mark currently and of interest if turned out soon on sand, though also turf not out of it, ideally 6f, may not totally get 7f. Didn’t have many realistic opportunities over 6f on turf.

Race Replay

Lola’s Moment
06/06/23 – 5.45 Wetherby:

Slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually led from 2f out until approaching the final furlong. Briefly accepted challenge before she ran out of gas for good.

Comeback after a break since September 2022. Looks potentially exposed but may be capable o progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look hers.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). She should drop further in her mark and may be underestimated over fast five with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ricksen
06/06/23 – 8.30 Wetherby:

Led, though pestered. Travelled full of enthusiasm. Challenged from over 2f out on both sides but kept going strongly and came back for more in the final furlong.

Winner and second were probably well-handicapped, therefore the form has some substance.

7f may be ideal as he can be keen. Could be well able to win one of these low grade races in a race with little pace competition. On a fair mark.

Race Replay

Marksman Queen
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Sluggish start, travelled well off the pace. Held together until about 2f out. Strong response when asked for effort as she cam home much the best over the last two furlongs in particular.

The hood may took off some of her early excitement. She was keen prior, when winning twice on the All-Weather. She may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now.

Given her breeding it’s fair to assume she will improve for switching to turf on fast ground. Remains to be seen how much she has in hand, but intriguing in those conditions.

Race Replay

Beccara Rose
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Bit slowly away, soon recovered to race about in midfield. Kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fast over the last three furlongs.

Looks possibly well-handicapped if she switches back to turf on decent ground. Didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action and her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on good to form.

Was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on debut – in soft – last year, though. Should be capable to move up in trip, as well.

Race Replay

The Cruising Lord
07/06/23 – 3.45 Newbury:

Showed good early speed. Kicked well over 2f out. Got tired approaching the final furlong. Excellent return off a long break. Down to a sexy mark if still with appetite.

Not as good as in the past but should be able to improve from this run and looks capable of winning off current 70 OR.

Especially interesting down to 5f again. Best over minimum trip on fast ground, although also capable to act on softer. Probably want to see ideal conditions these days.

Ran really well over 6f nto at Salisbury for a long time in a good race.

Race Replay

Dynamite Katie
07/06/23 – 4.20 Newbury:

Set off at a rapid clip. She ran the first four furlongs faster than the preceding 6f Handicap and the first three furlongs faster than all the other sprint races on the same card, while racing over 7 furlongs herself. She never was likely to get home.

This was her handicap debut and first time on turf. She may have been outclassed here anyway. 7f is a stretch in Handicap company I reckon. A drop to 6f on decent ground could be interesting.

Race Replay

Le Brok Cafe
07/06/23 – 2.00 Newbury:

Rapid start, excellent early speed. Goin okay to 3f out before under pressure. Fell away quickly. Ran better than the price. Probably good form.

Only second career-run. Will be interesting once she qualified for a mark, perhaps mostly as she drops to the minimum trip as well.

Race Replay

Pearle D’or
08/06/23 – 6.40 Yarmouth:

Quickly established lead. Enjoyed the front, kicked on well from 2f out and broke the hearts of most, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace.

2nd start of new yard, changed hands for 40k. Showed some promise in Ireland and may have more to offer on decent ground. May not be out of question he stays 7f either.

Has ran at Hamilton in the meantime. And odd ride, which I’m prepared to forgive.

Race Replay

Lordsbridge Girl
08/06/23 – 8.40 Yarmouth:

Good start, tracked the early pace, ever so slightly disadvantaged by the shifting leader early on. Badly shot of room from over 2f out all the way to the final furlong practically, where she ran home strongly.

Huge run. In line with what she showed on the AW. A mile is absolute maximum. Probably best over 7f with pace but fast ground a mile not out of it. She’s still quite unexposed on turf.

Excellent nto run with strong speed rating. Made effort on the outside away from the rail which didn’t seem ideal on the day. Likely strong form.

Race Replay

Bell Song
08/06/23 – 8.50 Chelmsford:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Didn’t get in and was caught wide approaching the turn and had to move forward for a slightly improved position. Impressive how she was able to kick and stay well to the line despite all the trouble.

Handicap debut, looks capable to win off her mark, especially based on her seasonal reappearance at Southwell, which was seriously strong form. A strong pace over 7f should help. Unexposed on turf.

Ran an unfortunate race at Sandown in the meantime. Did well in the circumstances and better than that.

Race Replay

Khanjar
08/06/23 – 3.35 Hamilton:

Slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw ad racing wide away from the usually more favoured stands’ side. Made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Ran 4 (+ equal in one) of 6 furlongs faster than the eventual winner.

Can’t be harshly assessed for this and remains of interest. Didn’t run quite a speed ratings in the 90s but looks capable. Bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps.

Ran better at York on his seasonal debut than bare result. Strong, galloping sort who stays well up a stiff finish.

Race Replay

Lady Lade
09/06/23 – 1.40 Thirsk:

Clear disadvantage being drawn low and away from the pace. After a solid start lost quickly a lot of ground, about 7 lengths behind the leader 3f out.

Made tremendous progress against the bias and finished much the best over the last 3f, although paid a bit of tribute in the closing stages to a strong mid-race splits.

Only won once in handicap company, off 68 last year, ran to 66 speed rating. becomes quite competitive now off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Mrs Trump
09/06/23 – 3.10 Thirsk:

Tough from the #1 draw, moved quickly toward the centre. Bit short of room when a gap closed and she had to delay her effort and be switched. Ran very well given the circumstances.

Clearly in strong form. Ran a huge race last time at Ripon and had excuses at Southwell, too. Still a maiden but dangerous once she gets a good draw.

Race Replay

Wedgewood
09/06/23 – 2.00 Brighton:

Badly bumped soon after the start, still moved rapidly forward and let first 2-3f at a fast pace. Gradually tired.

Ran better than bare performance lto too. Finished tired last two now, maybe needs a small break. Interesting afterwards. off possibly revised mark over 5f on turf still, may not stay 6f, also may be better on AW but could be capable on turf too.

Won seriously well when last seen on AW and ran a good race at Windsor in a really hot Handicap in the meantime.

Race Replay

Fragrence
10/06/23 – 6.55 Chepstow:

Blistering early speed, led by a couple of lengths. Gradually tired. Small field but very strong race with rivals in good form.

Ran to multiple speed ratings last season that suggest she is capable off her revised 60 mark. Dangerous in the easier race where she can lead on decent ground over 5f.

Race Replay

Raasel
10/06/23 – 1.15 Haydock:

Probably not quite advantaged by having to make his effort on the widest outside against the far rail after travelling well held up until over 2f out. Made huge progress thanks to fastest furlong two out, before getting understandably tired late.

Huge run, still run fastest the last 3f. Can be forgiven previous Haydock run due to severe draw bias and ran well on his seasonal reappearance. Could be underestimated next time.

Not disgraced in hot Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the meantime.

Race Replay

El Caballo
10/06/23 – 3.35 Haydock:

Slightly awkward start. Tracked the pace in third, was going well and waiting to make a challenge from three furlongs out. Couldn’t get a run on the inside, was several times short of room and hampered 1f out. Finished easy on the eye.

Excellent run and may have gone closer with clear run. Not sure he truly stays 7f at this level on turf, but chance given on fast ground. Probably better over 6f. Obviously superb on sand, but may be underestimated on turf.

Race Replay

Royal Charter
10/06/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Seriously keen when held up early on. Was going okay and kept up to work from over 3f out, but route to progress closed until over 1f out behind horses as she was also hanging to the left. Finished much the best.

Strong seasonal reappearance. Obviously more to come. Does stay 7f no problems. Needs to settle better and follow a strong pace. Drop to 6f not out of question, either.

Race Replay

Ascot Adventure
10/06/23 – 2.40 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a duo. Rolled down the hill, quite inefficient sectionals. Was able to actually kick on somewhat in the home straight once again. Impressive, before getting tired late.

Huge run. Joint career-2nd best speed rating (78). 7.5f stretches his stamina. Best over 7f, ground independent. Also 6f with plenty of cut possible.

Down to good mark. Any additional help from the handicapper a bonus as he looks in top form in the right race.

Was seriously disappointing at Thirsk in the meantime. However, deserves another chance as the ground turned that day and the race developed into a strange one down the stands’ rail.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
10/06/23 – 3.20 Catterick:

Great early pace. Led early on, but always pressured. Did way too much in the first half of the race and did extremely well to finish as well as he did.

In superb form this year. Ran to 61 speed rating when winning at Beverley. Possibly a touch better on decent ground. Down to fair mark and capable of winning still. Ran to better speed ratings last season and looks in similar form.

Race Replay

Physique
11/06/23 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Caught wide and without cover from the highest draw. Couldn’t get in until halfway through the race. Gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by then. Got ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2f out before he finished the fastest over the last two furlongs regardless.

Fair to say with a better draw and run he would have won. Lightly raced, has scope off his current mark as he should be should be already a 95+ horse.

Has shown he handles fast ground without a problem. Should have options to stay a mile but maybe too keen at this stage of his career.

Ran a big race for a long time in a hot Handicap at Royal Ascot in the meantime. Maybe didn’t quite get home over the stiff mile there.

Race Replay

First Ruler
11/06/23 – 4.25 Goodwood:

Trailed the small field. Looked a bit awkward around the home turn, probably not helped that the pace increased significantly at that point. Niggled and reminder received and had to made progress right into the fastest part of the race, no advantage from off the pace. Ran home strongest.

Return run. Deserves and upgrade. Ran a 91 speed rating in Meydan when winning over 12f. and seems still progressive with age and maturity.

Stays the trip obviously, but would love to see him over 10f with a fast pace to chase. Could bring out improvement and maybe good enough to land a Group 3. Didn’t have many opportunities of that sort.

Race Replay

Mattice
11/06/23 – 3.45 Beverley:

Started quickly, did a lot in the first three furlongs to grab the lead and stay there. Tired badly in the final furlong. Strong run, competitive race.

Comes slowly down in ratings and class. Ran often in ultra-competitive races. Looks capable still, certainly in an easier race, where he can dominate.

Race Replay

Winter Crown
11/06/23 – 5.15 Beverley:

Second widest draw, caught wide early, then caught behind a wall of horses. Had to delay his run and fight for a gab to finally get out in the clear, re-organise himself with less than a furlong to go to run home strongly.

Was unfortunate from a poor draw, away from the pace, and short of room lto as well. Clearly better than OR 76. Should be hard to beat if moving back up to 6f, but a stiff 5f seem fine too. Fast ground no issue.

Race Replay

La Roca Del Fuego
12/06/23 – 5.08 Windsor:

Started quickly, led against the inside rail, under pressure as he stayed there while main bunch went away from the inside. Weakened rapidly. Rain and ground probably turned against him.

Better on AW and definitely needs fast ground on turf. Was well-backed here, and ran with plenty of credit from the front lto. Down to dangerous mark on turf and sand over 5f.

Race Replay

Dulcet Sprit
12/06/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Moved forward to grab the lead and led by a couple of lengths setting a good, honest, even pace. Was much faster through the first half than the eventual winner and second. Showed good attitude right to the line.

First time on turf, definitely looks like one who enjoys fast ground. Wasn’t expected, and neither in her last starts. Won well off 58 on the AW and should come down to intriguing mark on turf as well, especially in a race where she can dominate.

Wouldn’t be out of it if she drops to 6f in a race with not much pace to compete. Ideally see her drop below a mark off 58.

Race Replay

Get Off Me
12/06/23 – 5.00 Lingfield:

Started alright, got to the rail and led, did more than the rest in a hotly contested run. Excellent 4f performance before tired badly, although quite understandable given the early exertions.

Followed on nicely from huge run lto on the AW when he finished seriously strongly in a hot race for the grade, after missing the break. Can be sluggish at the start. Maybe headgear can help.

Looks to have pace for the minimum trip certainly. Huge runner if he drops back in grade with a solid start.

Race Replay

Grant Wood
12/06/23 – 8.30 Pontefract:

Wide draw, slowly away, perhaps by design. Settled in rear, trailing as the field turned for home. Loads to do but kept answering calls and accelerated well making solid progress against the inside. Not quite clear run over 1f out and jockey seemed happy enough to concede defeat.

Wasn’t in it to go close. Changed yards. Seasonal reappearance. Should come one and probably be better over 7f. Ran 72 speed rating last year. Up in trip and some money in the betting will tell whether the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Jimmy Lifestyle
13/06/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Covered up early, tried to unwind for challenge from over 3f out on the outside which seemed a difficult place to come from. Didn’t get overly hard ride and ran on well to the line.

Looks a big lad and may improve with racing. Up in trip to 7f could be interesting of a revised mark as he may not quite have the speed for 6f.

Race Replay

Sam’s Call
15/06/23 – 4.20 Nottingham:

Not ideally drawn and slightly bumped by rival out of the gate. Not ideally placed behind horses and short of room 2f out, had to switch ever so slightly, lost momentum, before running home strongly. Finished 3 of last 4 furlongs faster than well-handicapped winner. Good form.

Can hit flat spot in the middle of his races. Best over 5f. Down to dangerous mark, although not prolific and doesn’t deserve many chances.

Race Replay

Rum Cocktail
15/06/23 – 7.10 Haydock:

Travelled in rear before making ever so slightly progress while niggled covered up behind a wall of horses, never seemed to be entirely happy. Bulldozed her way through a gap from 2f out, shifted, slightly unbalanced before galvanized to mount challenge.

Finished joint best last 3f. Bit unlucky to finish only 3rd. Down to good mark. Ran solid speed ratings this year already. Dangerous over minimum trip on decent ground, but 6f could be worth a try and unlock improvement too.

Race Replay

Azazat
16/06/23 – 6.35 Cork:

Close up with the pace, tracked the leader. Was going well, but got stuck behind the first two from 3f out which gave the eventual winner the opportunity for a decisive move. Switched 2f out and found plenty for pressure.

Unfortunate, but strong form. Excellent 96 speed rating which gives her a crack at Graded race. Still lightly enough race to see some improvement that would see her competitive against the better 3yo fillies over 12f.

Race Replay

Tafreej
17/06/23 – 3.20 Chester:

Not ideally drawn and bit slowly away, confined to the rear of the field. Got unbalanced around the home turn as she was also short of room until hitting the straight. Ran home the fastest.

Still unexposed and looks certainly ready to move up in trip. The dam won over 1m 4f. Interesting over a mile at least, and offers potential off 84.

Race Replay

Rathbone
17/06/23 – 5.25 York:

Excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long.

This was a competitive race. Ran well in good Handicap lto. Clearly back in form and could win in a less competitive race and a front-runner track. Won off 90 and ran to 86 speed rating last summer. Maybe not quite as good these days but on a dangerous mark.

Race Replay

Tees George
18/06/23 – 5.00 Doncaster:

Bumped early on by a rival. Settled in rear. Was able to answer the accelerations after a pedestrian opening, and ran on well on the outside, easily under hands and heels in the final furlong.

Should certainly for a step up in trip. 7-8f probably no issue at all on pedigree. Still lightly raced and mark 0f 60 offers opportunities.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 23rd June 2023

Leave a comment

Waipiro delivered the goods. He won with so much in hand – I was hopeful he’d be too good for this field with a clear run, but this performance was a surprise, especially given the way the race panned out.

He definitely did it the hard way. It didn’t look like it would happen for a long time. A bad bump by a rival soon after the start, lit up, far off the pace, didn’t seem to travel well, the gap wasn’t opening…. until it magically did and whoosh off he was, never to be seen again by his rivals.

Let’s not forget what a huge eyecatcher he was in the Derby, and also how well he ran twice earlier this season. A drop to 10 furlongs, with a good pace… he was always to go close if he could get a run.

Not unhappy with Physique. He was right there for a long time. He faded in the final furlong, but that’s okay. It was a run for the money and a big price.

Good week overall; yet, longing for a “normal” winner in some random class 5 or 6 Handicap as well. Tomorrow?

…….

4.20 Ascot: Coronation Stakes, 1m

It’s hard, if not even impossible to oppose Tahiyra after her sensation performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she quickened away like a true superstar.

That performance wasn’t quite as strong on speed figures as it was visually, but the Dermot Weld trained filly produced a career-best and excellent 104 speed rating at Newmarket in the British equivalent last month.

She’s clearly extremely talented, at the same time possibly vulnerable given this is her third Group 1 in the space of six weeks on the quickest ground she has ever encountered.

Dermot Weld was on the record saying prior to the 1000 Guineas that he felt the filly could have done with an additional two weeks of preparation. Has she been rushed to run twice in this short space of time?

There are dangers here, also from a tactical point of view. On the round course it can be an advantage to make all or be certainly close to the pace. You would think Mediate could be in a prime spot when turning for home. Runner-up at the Curragh, this race could be run to suit her perfectly.

That says, bar Meditate, there is little opposition likely good enough to match a Tahiyra, even if not quite at her peak. Unless one of the other fillies in the race can step up significantly.

The one I would have hopes to improve significantly with experience is Remarquee. She was a huge disappointment at Newmarket, where she didn’t seem happy at any stage and found zero once under pressure.

But I can’t shake off the huge impressions she gave in her first two career runs, once on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.

She looked raw and green on both occasions. The speed figures weren’t strong, but her finishing speed screams talent. The better ground is intriguing. Even though her two wins came on soft, I have the feeling decent ground can bring out more improvement.

Prior to the Guineas Ralph Beckett was quite hopeful that he would have a potential star filly on his hands. There is still the potential for her to turn out and become a proper Group 1 filly.

Whether the race is going to be run to suit remains to be seen. Nonetheless, at the given prices she’s worth a shot at this.

10pts win – Remarquee @ 33/1

……

5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Coppice is an intriguing filly, and one from my horses to follow list this season. There’s every chance she’s well handicapped off 97 after her successful return to form in a Novice Stakes where she made amends for a disappointing defeat in the Nell Gwyn.

She hasn’t achieved any speed rating of note yet, and I’m not yet convinced that she truly gets a mile when the pace is on.

This test in a large field and with a stiff finish doesn’t strike me as the right one, especially as she can be slowly away as well. She’s certainly too short to back.

The pace side should be the stands’ side, with high numbers likely to dominate. That brings a filly into play that caught the eye earlier this month at Kempton.

Marksman Queen finished seriously well in a Handicap there over a mile, nearly overcoming a sluggish start as she travelled well off the pace was held together until about 2f out before showing a strong response when asked for an effort to come home much the best.

She couldn’t quite get back to the 4-year-old winner, who ran well for a long time in the Kensington Palace earlier this week.

She wasn’t slowly away in any of her two starts prior, hence I hope it was just ‘one of those days’. A poor start would severely compromise her chances in this competitive field.

But if she gets way well, then she could be very well handicapped, off 86, only 2lb higher than at Kempton. She won well at Southwell on her seasonal reappearance as well.

I reckon that perhaps the hood took off some of her early excitement at Kempton. She was keen in her previous races. Hopefully she is better used to it now.

Given her breeding Marksman Queen may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now. She should also improve for switching to turf on fast ground.

10pts win – Marksman Queen @ 15/1

……..

5.35 Ascot: Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f

King Of Steel ran a massive race in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and a return to that level of form will see him certainly with a prime chance. Can he repeat such a tremendous run?

Different track, different pace scenario, stiff finish. And he got the splits when needed, having enjoyed the near perfect race. He was clearly beaten by a brilliant horse on the day, and the same opposition isn’t present here.

But taking into account that this is going to be a totally different type of race, one can question his odds-on price tag. Also, I am not sold that he would stay a properly run 12 furlongs, especially with a stiff finish.

Also: on speed ratings he ran to a fine treble digit figure of 100. But the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous achieve a 99 speed figure at York in the Dante over a trip possibly slightly short of his optimum when he also needed the run, most likely.

Continuous is one my horses to follow this year and I can forgive him that poor French Derby run. He didn’t have any real excuses, other than that it was a competitive renewal. So wellbeing is taken with some question marks attached.

Ryan Moore remains quite positive whenever he speaks about Continuous, so that’s certainly noteworthy. There should be more to come, given he didn’t have an ideal spring preparation, and strikes me as a relentless galloper who should enjoy Ascot.

The other one I do like is Artistic Star. I liked him for the Derby, and even though things didn’t work out on the day or him, the inexperienced colt showed great promise in the second half of his race.

After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.

Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.

He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.

I’ll split my stake here: I really only can see three horses to win. Those are the aforementioned. Because Arrest over 12 furlongs, fast ground, stiff finish, looks not the test to suit him.

5pts win – Continuous @ 15/2
5pts win – Artistic Star @ 11/2

…….

1.50 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Fiftyshadesofred was rather unfortunate the other day at Catterick when he missed the start somewhat, as he can do, got behind and stuck on the inside rail and found himself badly short of room at a crucial stage over 3 furlongs out.

He ran pretty well in the circumstances and confirmed the excellent performance shown weeks earlier at Ayr.

That day he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.

Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.

Another pound down, he looks seriously well-handicapped off 64, as he ran to a 65 speed rating at Ayr, in line with another 64 at Chelmsford in April.

This straight track may suit him better than sharp turning tracks. The field is competitive but with the 5lb claim of Connor Planas he should have too much in hand.

10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 4/1

…….

5.16 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A race for maidens. Some of the higher rated horses make appeal as this is easier for them. But I’m intrigued by Lola’s Moment, who knocked on the door a few times before and ran a huge race last time at Wetherby.

She was slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually she took up the lead from the 2 furlongs marker until she got heavily challenged from over one furlong out.

She briefly accepted the challenge before she ran out of gas and faded away.

This was her comeback run after a break since September 2022. The filly looks potentially exposed but may be capable of progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look her game.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). As she now drops to a similar rating she may be underestimated over a fast five with a good draw that she has got here.

10pts win – Lola’s Moment @ 10/1

………….

7.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

I firmly believe this is Latin Five’s for the taking. He is in excellent form, as evidence by his last two runs. Especially last time out at Nottingham he ran to a level of form that should see him hard to beat here if he can repeat.

He travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by a horse on the stands’ side.

The acceleration mid-race was quite something, for this level. He also achieved a 53 speed rating. He ran to 51 and 54 this season as well, so that 1lb hike doesn’t make too much of a difference.

He’s certainly well handicapped on last-years form. Now clearly back in form he’s the one to beat with a good draw to attack from as well.

10pts win – Latin Five @ 7/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 22nd June 2023

Leave a comment

Huge run by Inquisitively to finish a gallant 3rd in the Windsor Castle today. Another big price hitting the post but the ball didn’t get over the line, sadly.

Bay Bridge didn’t get the best of runs but never looked like he could challenge anyway. Wen Moon was an ugly watch. Graham Lee gave the gelding a shocking ride, willingly or unwillingly…. Azaim a big drifter and beaten early.

…..

5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes, 1m

As competitive as it gets, yet I feel quite strong about Physique, who looks seriously overpriced if he could settle in the early stages.

That’s the key question as he moves up in trip again. There’s enough to believe the trip won’t be an issue stamina wise, especially the way he finished last time out.

But he can be keen early on, and that would be a deadly sin in this race. His young rider doesn’t have all that much experience, either. There is a clear risk.

On the other hand, plenty of pace looks to be present in this field. It should be a fast race, and that will suit Physique, who should have a solid chance from the #8 draw to get into a prominent position, as he likes to be, normally.

I hope connections don’t opt for an experiment where they hold him up, in the hope to preserve his stamina. If that is the case you can turn off the TV after the first two furlongs. It’s another risk, worth taking at the price, though.

Physique couldn’t have been more impressive earlier this month at Goodwood, which was a superb follow-up from an already excellent performance a month earlier over the same course and distance.

He got caught wide and without cover from the highest draw and as a consequence struggled to find cover pretty much for the majority of the race.

The gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by the halfway mark. He also was ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2 furlongs out before he finished extremely strongly – in fact, he ran home the fastest over the last two furlongs, regardless.

It’s fair to say with a better draw and a little bit more in-running luck, he would have won. Still lightly raced, Physique has the scope to continue his progress, especially off his current 91 handicap mark.

He has shown to handle fast ground without a problem, so drying conditions aren’t a worry. He looks ideally suited to this type of test, if the pace is on and is most likely well-handicapped.

10pts win – Physique @ 35/1

……….

5.35 Ascot: Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f

I’m a fan of Epictetus, and not only because of his name. An incredibly consistent colt, he ran to 93, 97 and 91 speed ratings this year in his three runs and mixed it with strong opposition the last two times.

He may struggle to win a Group 1, but down in class he’s a massive runner over a course and distance, on possibly perfect ground.

However, this is a competitive renewal of the race. Progressive Drumroll has to give weight away but will be suited by the likely strong pace.

Torito is another serious prospect for the Gosden yard. Lightly raced, progressive and a fine winner of a hot Handicap at Epsom earlier this month.

Caernarfon ran a super race in the Oaks to finish a strong third. The drop in trip is likely to suit her and she looks competitive against the males down in grade.

The likes of unexposed Expolanet, or Kevin Ryan’s Heron Stakes winner Captain Winter can’t be easily dismissed either.

One who I feel is almost certain to enjoy the test, and appears overpriced, is Waipiro, though.

He endured a disaster of a run in the Derby where he was slowly away, as a consequence was caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around very wide for a run on the outside.

He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out, somewhat understandably.

There is also every possibility that he didn’t get the trip, in any case. Though, I thought he actually confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket earlier this season where he kicked on in fine style to win a Novice Stakes, before he finished a strong runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial.

Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated, though, and certainly seems to be underappreciated in the betting in this easier grade as he drops down to 10 furlongs.

He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield also. That stands up seriously well in this field. Yes, others could improve past that, though not too many look potentially capable of that, right now, at least. While Waipiro himself is open to improvement over this trip.

10pts win – Waipiro @ 12/1

…..

5.45 Leopardstown: 47-70 Handicap, 7f

This could be a great opportunity for Punk Poet, who seems overpriced. He drops in grade, this is much easier than all his races this year, over a trip he has no issue with and on ground likely to suit.

He dropped significantly in the ratings over last weeks and is down to a dangerously low 69 handicap mark now. There are clear and obvious reasons for that, though, I felt he hinted a return to some form a few times as well.

Back in April in a hot race over 6 furlongs he travelled strongly and finished well, and last month at the Curragh in a super competitive Apprentice Handicap he showed his usual good early speed and ran well until fading badly from 2 furlongs out in deep ground.

Leopardstown tomorrow should ride a bit better, and that will suit. The pace doesn’t look too hot, so from #8 draw he should be able to move across easily to have an ideal spot behind likely pace setter Maggie And Me or Turbine.

If Punk Poet could find anything close to last summers form in these conditions then he’s a big danger to all.

Last year he won off 82 and 83, also ran to an 82 speed rating. He’s versatile ground- and distance wise but probably 7 furlongs is his optimum.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 21st June 2023

Leave a comment

It needed a 33/1 winner to break this most annoying losing run. Thanks to Royal Champion (16/1 SP) who travelled as wide as sweetly through the race and won, despite carrying a penalty, like a horse in a different league to the rest.

A confident, no-nonsense ride by Jack Mitchell. He seemed to have clear instructions to avoid trouble at all costs. And so he did.

That means my rotten run of 31 conseqeuitive losing selections is over. One more and it would have been the longest losing run ever for me.

It’s a funny game. Some big prices knocked on the door lately. Including Bucanero Fuerte earlier on Tuesday, with a great run for 3rd in the Coventry. But it wasn’t to be. Never mind. Today is a good day.

Also back in profit for the month, of course. Which is the most important thing. Always.

I would hope things turn back to some form of normality now, because they were not normal lately. I haven’t been doing anything fundamentally different and liked most selections, even with the blessing of hindsight.

One a different note: all eyes are on Royal Ascot this week, naturally. My eyes were on the announcement for the final field for the Durban July that took place this morning as well, though. The big race is less than two weeks away.

Final runners, weights and the draw were announced. The draw played a lesser role in the past, though. Class found a way.

Therefore, the #14 draw for Safe Passage – the one I fancy strongly – is less of a negative, as maybe even a blessing in disguise, as it may ensure now that there is actually a price available for him on the day that makes me want to back him.

………

4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f

Small but select field for this renewal of the POW. Questions evolve around the pace. Who’s going to do the donkey work?

Luxembourg showed he can make it all, if needed. But it may fall to Classic Causeway who has shown plenty of good early speed in the US and he may find it hard not to pull his way to the front over this trip, if no other rival moves decisively forward early on.

Last years Belmont Derby winner could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead from the front, though, given his excellent speed. Although, the ground may not be quite fast enough for him and if all things go normal, he simply shouldn’t have the class.

2021 Derby hero Adayar returned successfully to the track at Newmarket in the Gordon Richards a few weeks ago. He confirmed his wellbeing. He ran a huge race in the Champion Stakes back in October, a performance that warranted an upgrade.

If he can run to a similar level of form as a 5-year-old then he’s firmly in the mix. On the other hand, in those five runs since his impressive Epsom success, his best speed rating achieved is a rather lowly 90 – for this grade at least.

My Prospero has hinted plenty of ability throughout his career and was arguably an unfortunate runner-up in the St James’s Palace twelve months ago. He’s yet to convince on speed ratings, though, hence may be found out against the very best here, as otherwise a massive career-best would be required.

Mostahdaf looks a bit short of class as well, if it coms to winning a Group 1. He deserves to be here and take his chance, but doesn’t seem to be top-class.

The same could not be said about Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, as they are multiple Group 1 winners. They meet here once again after their exciting fight in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh earlier this year.

Luxembourg got the better that day. He was forced to make all with no other pace in the race. He ensured that this was not a test of speed but rather a proper race to the line as evidence by his strong 110 speed rating – a career-best for the colt.

He looked a bit awkward in the closing stages, as he tends to do. At the same time he was brave and gutsy, fending off the challenge from Bay Bridge in the final furlong.

One could argue he had the run of the race. Certainly he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.

Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn’t enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.

On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He’s 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exceptional colt in line with the the vibes from Aiden O’Brien, who never wavered in his admirations.

Can Bay Bridge make up the half a lengths gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.

The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that’s confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.

The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn’t love it properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that’s what we’ll have on Wednesday.

Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge’s biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. He’s a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.

On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view – hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.

10pts win – Bay Bridge @ 7/2

…..

6.10 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes, 5f

How is this race going to work out from a pace perspective? There seems to be plenty of early speed. Over the stiff five at Ascot this may develop into a test of who is the fastest over the minimum trip and does stay a bit further than that.

Interpreting the pace map looks tricky, especially the way the sprint races developed on the first day. I make an educated guess and think it probably will develop into a mad dash to the line where everyone from anywhere could win.

In any case, the one I like against the field is Inquisitively. He has to step up to challenge the better fancied runners, like Barnwell Boy, who ran in impressive 90 speed rating on debut, or seriously progressive Maximum Impact.

Especially Barnwell Boy looks a rock solid favourite, especially if the stands’ side continue to ride faster. He was incredibly impressive on debut, but is a skinny price for the nature of this race.

Inquisitively in contrast, has only a 2nd place to his name that came in a class 5 Novice race at Windsor. Far from sexy. However, that form rates strongly in my view and may be underestimated.

For one, the race has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meet the clock here too.

The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compared strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. 

That was mainly down to Inquisitively, who overcame the wide draw as he started quickly and gradually moved over the to the stands’ rail where he led and set a hot pace.

It was impressive to see him outbattle the eventual third, who had a better draw and was ridden with more restraint and who has won in the meantime as well.

That was over 6 furlongs and he appeared to have no issue with a drop to the minimum trip. In fact, I got the impression a stiff five may be an ideal scenario.

The draw is a question mark. As the going on Tuesday favoured the low numbers on the far side, according to the going stick. But wit no further rain expected I have hopes the track dries out well enough that tomorrow afternoon any bias has evaporated and we should get a fair race.

Since writing this post and backing the horse at big odds earlier today there has been a bit of money for him. Happy with my overall price, but anything lower than 15s and I probably wouldn’t have been writing this, given the competitive nature of this race, being totally honest.

10pts win – Inquisitively @ 20/1

……

3.30 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Captain Vallo ran a huge race when finishing 3rd at Thirsk last time out. That was his seasonal reappearance and he could hardly have made a bigger impression that day.

He had to overcome the widest draw, far away from he favourable stands’ side. Yet, he travelled strongly in his group, made excellent progress to challenge in the closing stages, before getting tired in the last half furlong.

A superb comeback run. He must be in serious form and this easier race, down into 0-70, gives him a super chance as a winner over the course and distance.

Saying that, he’s not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6 furlongs at Hamilton on decent ground looks an ideal scenario in a race where not much else catches the eye.

10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/2

……..

7.10 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Wen Moon had excuses last time at Nottingham as he hang his race away after making smooth progress in the middle of the race to go upside with the leader.

He showed tendencies before of hanging to his left side, hence, possibly a track with a guiding rail to his left would be ideal. The way the 6f at Ripon rides could provide exactly that.

The #4 draw is perhaps a bit too far away from that guiding rail, though, and a concern to get there early with plenty of pace around, too.

However, cheek-pieces are added and they may help him to focus better in the closing stages, as well as to be sharply away from the gate. He showed solid early speed in the past and is a course winner as well.

His current 83 rating gives him a big chance in this field, judged on his Pontefract victory in class 3 last month. He was disadvantaged by the widest draw and had to settle in rear.

As a consequence he turned widest for home for a run, while going best, as he made smooth progress to hit the front at the final furlong marker before he hang badly to his left. Nonetheless, he won well with plenty in hand I believe.

It was an impressive performance, given the deep ground and doing so against the pace bias. Wen Moon is almost certainly better on decent (not proper fast perhaps) ground. Only 3lb higher than at Pontefract, still lightly raced and gelded during winter – there’s more to come.

10pts win – Wen Moon @ 8/1

…….

8.10 Ripon: Classified Stakes, 6f

I backed Azaim the last two times and seemingly follow this lad over the cliff.

He was incredibly disappointing at Catterick, but was beaten before the race got hot, in fact, because of the way he started and the position he found himself in.

As a 28/1 shot in a hot contest at Carlisle he improved dramatically when sent to the front. He was ran down eventually, but it was a strong effort that confirmed the promise he showed at Musselburgh last month was real.

Judged on those two performances I feel he’s better than all of his rivals here. He looks capable of running to mid 50’s in the right conditions right now, especially judged on that Musselburgh run where first and second appeared quite well-handicapped.

No more excuses, though. He’s got the #9 draw here. Ideal to attack from the front, grab the rail and wave good bye to the rest.

10pts win – Azaim @ 17/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 20th June 2023

Leave a comment

Royal Ascot is nearly upon us. One more sleep. It’s THE most exciting week for any flat racing fan. Brilliant racing, top-class horses. Good ground (hopefully). I love watching it.

Although, from a betting perspective it’s never been a big week for me. Last year I had only three bets the entire week (2 the year before)! Which included the Maljoom race that gives me nightmares to this day.

Hence, I’m somewhat surprised to find myself having as many bets on day one already! Ominous. Certainly given my current form.

………

2.30 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, 1m

One of my favourite races all year, and how can it be any different when my favourite colt Paco Boy made a name for himself in this very race back in 2009: he travalled like a dream, produced for his trademark turn of foot to win in style (shamefully it seems no video footage has survived).

That’s the past. The future is now. And this future shapes like a match-race between Inspiral and Modern Games. At least in the betting.

Current favourite Inspiral (may change by the time of posting) hasn’t been seen since a lackluster effort in the QEII last October. That’s a worry.

However, her victory in the Jacques le Marois last August is the standout piece of form in this field, especially on (more recent) speed ratings. She ran well fresh in the past, and yet it requires a lot of trust to back her at short odds.

Modern Games is the “recent form” horse after his Lockinge Stakes success. He didn’t ran an overly impressive speed rating that day (91) and his career-best 98 from last June in the French Guineas is certainly solid, without being exceptional, especially not for a 9/4 shot in a Group 1.

Native Trail, is the one with the most consistent speed ratings, having ran multiple times to 100+, including three times last year. His comeback run after a break and wind op was okay, but hard to gauge from that whether he’s back to anywhere near his best.

If he is, and you trust him to be, he’s a clear danger and arguably value in the betting, given a stiff mile at Ascot should suit, especially if the pace is on.

Mutasaabeq got the better of Native Trail him at Newmarket in fine style from the front, but couldn’t follow up in the Lockinge. He may well set this race up for someone else, I feel.

Chindit was runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and his performance warranted an upgrade. He won a Queen Anne Trial on his seasonal debut nicely and is a rock solid chance. For all that, he’s not overly exciting and didn’t impress on speed ratings for a while.

That brings me back to one of he horses I fancied to have a huge 2022: Cash. He was one of my 5 to follow last year. His issues have been well documented and those prevented him from realising his true potential so far.

Given the tremendous impression he made on his debut in October 2021, and then on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown in the Classic Trial in April last year, where he was a seriously unlucky 2nd behind Westover, one may wonder “what if”.

“What if” may be here and now. For one he may get his ideal race: a fast pace to track over a mile that should ensure a test of stamina over the trip. And he looks to be ideally drawn to follow the lead.

I loved his two runs this year. The second behind Chindit over this course and distance when he finished the best in a sprint finish. And when last seen in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.

He tried to move up in trip, but the pace wasn’t really on and he was – unsurprisingly – way too keen in the first three furlongs. It was still eyecatching to see the way he made smooth progress once the pace increased from over 4f out.

He fell away late but it was a huge effort behind strong Desert Crown and Hukum. Given all the question marks over most in this Queen Anne field, it nearly feels like a drop in class, somewhat.

Cash is a massive price. Too big here. Yes, he’d prefer a bit of rain for ideal conditions, but that’s unlikely to happen now. But track and trip will suit. He’s unexposed and open to improvement. Can he deliver some well needed cash for my decimated betting bank?

10pts win – Cash @ 20/1

……..

3.05 Ascot: Group 2 Coventry Stakes, 6f

Intriguing race for myriad of reasons. There’s certainly a social media aspect to the race: the clock vs the eye, who’s going to prevail? That’s the simplified narrative of the last few days on Twitter as all the pre-race talk evolves around River Tiber and Asadna.

Aiden O’Brien has been really positive about his lad, River Tiber, who’s 2/2 this year and looked an exciting colt on debut. So is Ryan Moore. That’s definitely something to take serious.

River Tiber must have learned plenty at Naas the next time, where he also bettered his excellent debut 77 speed rating. There is tons more to come, especially as he moves up to 6 furlongs.

Asadna on the other hand, was visually incredibly impressive on debut, but also ran a sensational 90 speed rating. He couldn’t have done more to impress that day at Ripon.

Both are drawn at opposing ends of the field. The way this race develops from a pace angle could decide who’s more likely to win. They have solid pace around them to potentially provide a lead into the finish.

However, the pace may develop more toward the middle and higher drawn horses here, and that may play into the hands of Asadna, but also could bring other horses into the equation.

There are many tasty prices on offer, and it’s not easy in a field full of unexposed horses to make the ‘right’ call.

A case can be certainly made for Army Athos, who was visually an impressive winner on debut, who seems an uncomplicated sort as well and may provide good early speed from gate #12. He ran a low speed rating, though, hence has to show more here if he wants to go all the way.

Amo Racing has some interesting contenders: Cuban Thunder looks potentially well drawn between speed horses, to get a nice lead, if he’s good enough to take it.

Stable mate Bucanero Fuerte could be even better drawn, close to likely speed horses Army Ethos and US raider Fandom. He could be in an excellent spot two furlongs from home.

He impressed me on debut at the Curragh early in the season over the minimum trip, as he travelled well, tracked the pace and kicked clear in impressive manner eating up the uphill finish at Irish flat racing HQ as he ran to a fine 80 speed rating as well.

It was rain softened ground, so the form may be a bit suspect, and hasn’t worked out all that well in the meantime. Nonetheless, the way he finished that day – strongly sprinting all the way to the line – suggests that moving up to 6 furlongs will certainly to his advantage. He’s a full-brother to some smart siblings. Whether he handles the better ground is the key question.

Bobsleight and Haatem, first and third at Epsom recently, are others who are interesting as they appear progressive and have a bit of experience already.

Hard to know how good Fandom is for Wesley Ward. What’s to be expected is the colt to show blistering early speed. Though, there are many with solid early pace in this race this time and also right beside him. I feel he may burn his fuel too early.

The other one who may get a nice lead into the race, drawn more on the outside of the pace I expect to come toward the centre of the track, is debut Windsor scorer Chief Mankato.

The form may be underestimated, because it was just a Windsor Class 5 Novice race. However, it seemed a surprisingly hot one. The form looks strong, has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meat the clock here.

Even though he was possibly well drawn, he didn’t get the ideal race early one with shifting horses pushing him ever so slightly back. His acceleration from 3f out, though, was impressive, and he reeled the leaders in to run home strongly.

The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compares strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. This lad must have a serious engine.

5pts win – Chief Mankato @35/1
5pts win – Bucanero Fuerte @ 19/1

……

3.30 Thirsk: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Ascot Adventure ran a huge race when last seen at Beverley, and left on the same mark, 5lb below his last winning mark, he looks a big chance with a good draw and pace scenario possible in his favour.

The Beverley race was a hot affair. He moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a leading duo. He rolled down the hill and overall ran an inefficient race.

Still, he was able to actually kick on once again in the home straight – Impressive to see, before getting understandably tired late.

He achieved a joint career-2nd best speed rating here, even though 7.5 furlongs may stretch his stamina to the absolute limit.

The slight drop back to 7 furlongs here at Thirsk will suit. He acts in all sort of ground conditions, so any rain is not a major worry. Off 80 with the #4 draw and a track that favours those up with the pace he looks to have a serious chance.

10pts win – Ascot Adventure @ 5/1

……..

4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m

What a race! Pretty much all the right horses are here. This presents also the opportunity for English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners to meet.

The ground could play a major role in who’s going to brevail in this battle. It looks pretty clear that Chaldean prefers cut in the ground. It may not rain enough between now and tomorrow afternoon to turn Ascot to proper soft.

I also feel Chaldean got pretty much the run of the race at Newmarket. He ran a fine treble-digit sped rating, that gives the performance substance, and yet I have reservations, not least at his short price.

If the ground stays decent enough I would certainly favour Paddington. I was present at the Curragh three weeks ago and saw an individual with plenty of scope. I loved how he kicked on in the final furlong and he looks an exciting prospect for the future.

In saying that, the fact he hasn’t managed to run a speed rating beyond the 60s is concerning. Perhaps, he didn’t have the opportunity yet, could be a fair argument. He looks capable of doing it, but given his short enough price there is better value to be found.

Royal Scotsman was an excellent third at Newmarket behind Chaldean. He was possibly a little bit unfortunate that day. He flopped at the Curragh and his well being has to be trusted. He should be in the mix if healthy.

Craven winner Indestructible bombed out in the Guineas. The Craven performance gives him a chance, if he could be back to that level of form. Galeron ran on well in the Irish equivalent, a bit of an eyecatcher. So was Charyn, who didn’t get the clearest of runs. Both may not be good enough, though, I suspect.

Isaac Shelby was a comfortable in the Greenham with a good speed rating and ran with tons of credit when runner-up in the French Guineas. The #3 draw here is ideal for him to move forward and find a good position. I like him a lot.

Unbeaten Cicero’s Gift has been talked about a lot. He looks open to plenty of improvement. A danger, if he does progress, indeed. However, he has to find quite a bit on speed ratings.

That leaves unexposed Mostabshir. He’s one of my horses to follow after his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.

His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time.

That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, an he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he’d have won by half a furlong, perhaps.

The pace wasn’t truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn’t do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.

Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It’s a significant step up from a Novice race at York.

On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a hug eyecatcher. It’s also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.

He’s bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His dam’s offspring often improve with time. At give prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.

10pts win – Mostabshir @ 8/1

……..

5.35 Ascot: Listed Wolferton Stakes, 10f

Saga looks a poor favourite. He may not stay and could struggle for a run. Buckaroo could run over his preferred trip and the yard is quite bullish. Saying that, he hasn’t run a serious speed rating yet.

This is wide open and much will depend on pace and whether horses get a clear run. The one I’m keen on is Royal Champion who caught my eye a number of times last year.

This is a Listed race and he has to carry a penalty which isn’t ideal. Nonetheless, I think he could be capable of giving the weight away as he may well deserve another crack at Group level and he looks significantly overpriced here.

There a a few reasons why he is a big price, the weight penalty aside, and they are valid, though. The #12 draw isn’t ideal. There is plenty of pace and he may be caught wide or too far back. If the rain arrives it could compromise his chances further.

In saying that, right now it seems good ground is the worst to expect on Tuesday afternoon. The gelding has shown to be versatile in his running style, possessing excellent cruising speed, which is what’s needed here in this likely chaotic race.

He drops in class after a poor effort in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester. That came over 10.5f in the mud and was his comeback run. I thought he ran better than the bare result suggested given he was there right until they turned for home, actually.

He was found out for class in the Champion Stakes in his final race in 2022, but prior to that enjoyed an excellent campaign: two fine victories over 10 furlongs in Handicap and Listed company, and a strong third in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor.

He ran to a 104 speed rating there – a race that has worked out well in the meantime – and backed that up with an ultra-impressive victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr where he travelled incredibly strongly and made eyecatching progress from 4f out to win comfortably.

That particular piece of form may not be the strongest on offer, though the way he did it was visually quite taking nd simply confirmed that he’s a proper horse, in my view. The way h quickened was impressive.

If he can run to same level of form that he was able to run to last summer he has a chance to win here, especially if the way the race develops gives him a clear run at it in the home straight.

10pts win – Royal Champion @ 33/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 19th June 2023

Leave a comment

Never Ending Story ran a super race for 2nd place in the Diane. But again, nothing to shout about, I’m afraid. She had absolutely no chance with sensational Blue Rose Cen.

Alligator Alley went off too hard and faded for 3rd. Michael’s Choice ran a shocker, after being punted into 5/2f. Typical, at the moment.

27 down and getting rather too close for comfort to the all-time longest losing streak of 31 from last autumn. I guess, if hitting a rotten spell, then let it be one for the ages.

More often than not selections beat SP, so I’m not too worried. The last 4 month things went only one way; at some point it has to go the other way.

Variance is real, and can be painful. And it happens regularly, I need to remind myself. There were multiple runs of 12-20 consecutive losers this year already, and yet it’s a winning year – so far. The average odds back then were not much different to what I’m backing now. What’s happening right now is, to the most part, random, and down to ‘luck’.

I find it helpful in these dark days to consult my records but also always remember Hugh Taylor’s excellent educational piece many years ago:

Saying that, I would lie if I would say this current run doesn’t weigh on my confidence at least a little bit. A winner would help, sooner rather than later.

……

6.55 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A handicap for horses winless this year. It looks competitive on the outset, however the pace scenario could compromise the chance of some of the better fancied runners, like Good Luck Fox and Strong Power.

The one I’m fascinated by is Jojo Rabbit, who goes from #1 one and who may enjoy the company of Eeh Bah Gum, who’s also a pace horse and drawn right beside him If these two move ahead, I think it’ll compromise the chances of the higher drawn runners.

Jojo Rabbit showed a clear return to form last time at Ayr. The form hasn’t quite worked out but he ran extremely well from the front for a long time, always under pressure.

He dropped another 2lb, now down to 73, that’s a whopping 12lb below his last winning mark, which was a class success over this course and distance last summer.

Fast ground and minimum trip seem to bring the best out of the gelding and this will be the first time he should find ideal conditions this season. With his lowed mark and possibly good pace scenario he looks dangerous.

Saying that, I made this bet on the basis of an earlier weather forecast which said there wouldn’t be too much rain tomorrow, expect some showed tonight but warm and sunny on Monday. That has changed now: it seems to be coming badly now.

It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Jojo Rabbit has some solid form with some cut in the ground. But it’s far from ideal. My money is down, though, and that’s that.

10pts win – Jojo Rabbit @ 6/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 18th June 2023

Leave a comment

After another disappointing Saturday on the betting front I went for a little walk to the Curragh around the Derby course.

A lovely evening once the rain subsided with some beautiful light to illuminate the Curragh.

……..

3.50 Doncaster: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Burning Cash looks seriously well weighted to go close, but I can’t move past Alligator Alley who was such a huge eyecatcher at Epsom last time out in the infamous Dash.

He was first-time visored and seemed to respond a bit too keenly to the new headgear as he forced his gate open, which set a chain of events in motion.

As for his own race, he was keen early on jumped the grass path over 4 furlongs out, bumped a rival and became briefly unbalanced moments, was subsequently short of room with the rider taking a pull.

Nonetheless, he ran home in eye catching fashion, hard on the bridle and still managed to finish strongly in the final furlong.

The handicapper dropped him another 2lb, which makes him a proper danger off 94 here, especially if he could start a bit sharper with visor.

Two runs back at York off 4lb higher was also quite a strong run; I thought, confirming the excellent form the gelding is in at the moment. He should get a clear run on the outside of the field here, so hopefully no excuses this time.

10pts win – Alligator Alley @ 4/1

………

4.00 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I’m prepared to forgive Michaels Choice his latest poor showing at Lingfield. Things didn’t look right there right from the start.

However, judged on his comeback run over his preferred course and distance – 6f at Salisbury – he should have a big chance here. He’ 3-2-1 over this CD, and looked as good as ever in May when the race developed against him.

That day he had the widest draw to overcome which was a significant enough disadvantage as he raced widest without cover as a consequence. Nonetheless, he made good progress from over 2f out on the outside of the field, to challenge, before he tired late.

A strong run on his seasonal reappearance which achieved a 66 speed rating as well. Clearly, based on that, he’s as good as ever.

Michaels Choice won off 70 multiple times in the past and ran to 70 speed rating twice last year, including when winning over this CD last July.

10pts win – Michaels Choice @ 7/2

……..

3.05 Chantilly: Prix de Diane, 1m 2.5f

A competitive renewal but I want to give Never Ending Story another chance after her disappointing showing the in the French Guineas, where she seemed never really in it after receiving an early bump by a rival.

Moving up in trip should suit this daughter of Athena, though, and ever since she won the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown back in April I felt she is a high-class filly, a Group 1 winner in the making.

That day she was gutsy, stayed on strongly and proved that she has progressed after a somewhat underwhelming juvenile campaign.

She looked stronger than ever, and ran a solid 90 speed rating, as the form has ben given a significant boost in the meantime by the second and third.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tXp8zz_M25k%3Fversion%3D3%26rel%3D1%26showsearch%3D0%26showinfo%3D1%26iv_load_policy%3D1%26fs%3D1%26hl%3Den%26autohide%3D2%26wmode%3Dtransparent

I imagine she’s even better beyond a mile in any case, and everything she’s done so far is positive to sign for what’s still to come.

That she was able to win a good race over 7 furlongs, means she has the speed. Now let’s bring in some stamina and she’s seriously underestimated today, especially from a good draw.

10pts win – Never Ending Story @ 16/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 17th June 2023

Leave a comment

Not gonna happen right now, is it? Huge run by Barrier despite drifting out to 33s for 2nd place, but that’s no good for me as a win only backer. Bell Song was well backed down to 9/2 SP, and then didn’t get a run from off the pace.

Searching vain for the elusive next winner. “Funny” thing: pretty much the exact same happened last year at this time of the year. A torrid first half of June.

…….

4.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Lunario was arguably an unfortunate 3rd last time at Lingfield, when beaten in the tightest of finishes in a photo that could have gone either way. On a different day he could have been the winner.

Fair arguments can be brought forward for the notion that he was the ‘moral winner’ – if such thing would exist – and he should be able to make amends here on Saturday.

He meets Gone once again, the winner last time at Lingfield, but on better terms. Because Gone has gone up a couple of pounds, whereas Lunario remains on the same mark.

Over 7.5 furlongs at Lingfield last time out I felt the performance warranted an upgrade, though. And if that proves correct, the colt could be well-handicapped.

There he was slightly bumped by a rival as the left the gates. Still somewhat green and raw, he was niggled behind the leading horses, possibly even a bit flat footed, but then made huge progress on the outside once pulled out for a clear view of the final furlong.

Even tough he seemed destined to run home and grab the W, he didn’t help his case when hanging badly to the left, as he continued showing greenness.

That was Lunario’s Handicap debut and it’s fair to assume he can progress from here. If he can than there is every possibility that he’s better than a 65 Official Rating.

He steps up in trip, albeit ever so slightly. On pedigree there’s no doubt he’ll stay a mile, in any case.

It’s also worth pointing out that at Lingfield he achieved a 65 speed rating, despite everything that went wrong on the day. Therefore, he must have a massive chance to win, if he runs straight to the line.

10pts win – Lunario @ 5/1

…….

1.45 Scottsville: Grade 3, Track And Ball Derby, 12f

Airways Law is one I’m tracking for over a year now, ever since he caught the eye on the All-Weather with some scintillating performances early in his career, before he won a Durban July trial in impressive fashion and subsequently ran an eyecatching race in the July.

He’s hard to fancy on recent form, or basically anything he had done since last July in four subsequent runs. Although, his two runs in Grade 2 company in December and January were a lot better than the bare form suggested.

The gelding had a recent comeback run here at Scottsville after about 6 months off the track. He had a tough task over the short trip and on the weights and wasn’t expected to do much.

A 12/12, 13 lengths beaten result doesn’t instill much confidence that he’s anywhere near in form. But as he moves up in trip, and quite significantly, it’s should be noted Airways Law usually improves for his second run.

There is every chance that this here is a prep run for a bigger date on the July card (or the big one itself), but the fact he 2/3 for rest+2 is pointing more toward that this is his “July”, as he also would need to show a significant return to form to feature in any future big race.

The trip is on the far end of what the gelding is likely to stay. On the other hand they won’t go a mad gallop and this race is much easier than the Grade 2’s he ran in prior.

Also, looking back to last years July run, which was as far as he ever went, he stayed on pretty well This is a very winnable contest and the fact he travelled well and with enthusiasm during his recent reappearance suggests there is still some fire in the belly.

10pts win – Airways Law @ 8/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 16th June 2023

Leave a comment

19 and counting… worst losing run in a while. Griggy a big drifter on the day, never spotted in the race. Making a habit of it right now. On to tomorrow…

……

6.05 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Barrier is one of the Handicappers to follow and I feel this looks an ideal Handicap debut for the filly. Judge her on a poor seasonal reappearance at your peril, dare I say…. this is a completely different proposition than what she encountered at Newmarket.

She dropped out rapidly and seriously badly from 4f out, but you could also argue until then she ran quite well, given she missed the break badly. actually.

That was tough opener, against strong opposition to the most part. It served the purpose to qualify for Handicaps, though. She can start off a 67 mark, which could be significantly underestimating her.

The drop to 10 furlongs doesn’t worry me too much, although she may turn out to be better over further. The opening mark is simply so low, I find it hard to believe, especially as she showed promise as a juvenile, on her final start in 2022 at Ascot, where I felt her run warrants an upgrade.

New headgear may help her to get her race off a bit sharper. She missed the break in all her starts, so that’s a concern. The fast ground is somewhat of an unknown, too, given it’s hard to take anything away from that lto run.

Nonetheless, I can’t leave her unbacked at this price, even though I would hope there is some support in the market later. It could also mean I’ve got it spectacularly wrong in my assessment of this filly.

10pts win – Barrier @ 20/1

………….

4.25 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Absolutely no doubt Bell Song is well-handicapped off 72 in her second run in Handicap company. She showed plenty in each of her three starts this year, including on Handicap debut last week, but has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper, who couldn’t have been any fairer.

Last week at Chelmsford she had the widest draw to overcome., which was a major disadvantage. She was caught wide and didn’t find cover for the first half of the race.

As a consequence she moved forward, used up loads of energy, to find a suitable position, eventually. It was impressive how she was able to kick on approaching the home straight and also the way she stayed well to the line despite all the trouble.

She was only beaten by one ridden with more restraint from a low draw. How good the form is remains to be seen, but the filly couldn’t have done much more to catch the eye. She has been left, surprisingly, on a 72 mark.

Which in itself looks on the low side, given her excellent seasonal reappearance at Southwell that looks quite strong form, where she didn’t get a clear run, otherwise she would have finished closer.

She may need to move up to a mile to be seen to best effect, but 7 furlongs seem fine for now. The pace looks somewhat muddling in this race. That’s a good and a bad thing.

One hand it means she should have no issue overcoming the #8 draw and follow the lead of likely front-runner Taritino drawn right beside her. She should be in an ideal position if all goes well. But she can be a bit keen as well, and may prefer a decent pace to aim at. There’s a risk.

Saying that, the risks are possibly outweighed simply by the fact that the filly could have way too much in hand in this field, I believe, on what is her turf debut, with fast ground probably to suit, given the pedigree. I don’t get this price, at all.

10pts win – Bell Song @ 11/1

………

3.35 York: Listed Ganton Stakes, 1m

This race and pace scenario screams for an upset. Shining Blue is expected to go off as favourite. That’s fair. He won really well in Handicap company when last seen over 7 furlongs and does stay a mile.

On the other hand, the shorter trip is probably his optimum. His best speed rating came in January at Meydan over 7f. Purely judged on that he’s the one to beat.

A mile, fast ground, muddling pace, is a somewhat different scenario, and outside Meydan his form isn’t all that impressive. Therefore, he could be more vulnerable than the short price suggests.

El Drama is the pick on career-best speed ratings. But he may like it a bit longer than a mile and he hasn’t ran any faster than speed ratings in the 70s in over two years. That’s normally not good enough for this level. But then, this isn’t an overly strong race, either.

Chichester should find this easier than the last time and ran well on the All-Weather before. Though, he might be outpaced if this turns into a sprint for home and he could be poorly positioned in rear.

Longshot Silver Screen can’t be fancied, however Azano has all the right attributes to outrun his price here.

He’s only rated 92, and has a lot to find on Official Ratings and normally wouldn’t be too likely to land a blow outside Handicap company. Yet, this race may fall into his lap.

On the plus side, he showed fine form in his last two runs this year. Last time at Sandown he did too much to get to the front from his wide draw when he made the donkey work for those from off the pace, basically.

His Newmarket run in May, though, was strong, and a repeat of that form could be good enough to win this Listed contest.

That day he made the most of the standing start when he quickly moved forward to lead, as he set a strong pace and had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out. He ran home well and even rallied in the final furlong, but was eventually beaten by a strong winner.

I do rate that performance, as it represented somewhat of a return to close of his best form. Hos best gives him a definite chance her. Especially over a mile on fast ground where he may find himself able to dominate.

Although the earlier prices of around 40s seem rapidly disappearing since having started writing this post, I think what’s on offer is still a huge price given the likely circumstances of this race, and I’d be pretty certain Azano will outrun these odds.

10pts win – Azano @19/1