Huge run by Inquisitively to finish a gallant 3rd in the Windsor Castle today. Another big price hitting the post but the ball didn’t get over the line, sadly.
Bay Bridge didn’t get the best of runs but never looked like he could challenge anyway. Wen Moon was an ugly watch. Graham Lee gave the gelding a shocking ride, willingly or unwillingly…. Azaim a big drifter and beaten early.
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5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes, 1m
As competitive as it gets, yet I feel quite strong about Physique, who looks seriously overpriced if he could settle in the early stages.
That’s the key question as he moves up in trip again. There’s enough to believe the trip won’t be an issue stamina wise, especially the way he finished last time out.
But he can be keen early on, and that would be a deadly sin in this race. His young rider doesn’t have all that much experience, either. There is a clear risk.
On the other hand, plenty of pace looks to be present in this field. It should be a fast race, and that will suit Physique, who should have a solid chance from the #8 draw to get into a prominent position, as he likes to be, normally.
I hope connections don’t opt for an experiment where they hold him up, in the hope to preserve his stamina. If that is the case you can turn off the TV after the first two furlongs. It’s another risk, worth taking at the price, though.
Physique couldn’t have been more impressive earlier this month at Goodwood, which was a superb follow-up from an already excellent performance a month earlier over the same course and distance.
He got caught wide and without cover from the highest draw and as a consequence struggled to find cover pretty much for the majority of the race.
The gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by the halfway mark. He also was ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2 furlongs out before he finished extremely strongly – in fact, he ran home the fastest over the last two furlongs, regardless.
It’s fair to say with a better draw and a little bit more in-running luck, he would have won. Still lightly raced, Physique has the scope to continue his progress, especially off his current 91 handicap mark.
He has shown to handle fast ground without a problem, so drying conditions aren’t a worry. He looks ideally suited to this type of test, if the pace is on and is most likely well-handicapped.
10pts win – Physique @ 35/1
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5.35 Ascot: Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f
I’m a fan of Epictetus, and not only because of his name. An incredibly consistent colt, he ran to 93, 97 and 91 speed ratings this year in his three runs and mixed it with strong opposition the last two times.
He may struggle to win a Group 1, but down in class he’s a massive runner over a course and distance, on possibly perfect ground.
However, this is a competitive renewal of the race. Progressive Drumroll has to give weight away but will be suited by the likely strong pace.
Torito is another serious prospect for the Gosden yard. Lightly raced, progressive and a fine winner of a hot Handicap at Epsom earlier this month.
Caernarfon ran a super race in the Oaks to finish a strong third. The drop in trip is likely to suit her and she looks competitive against the males down in grade.
The likes of unexposed Expolanet, or Kevin Ryan’s Heron Stakes winner Captain Winter can’t be easily dismissed either.
One who I feel is almost certain to enjoy the test, and appears overpriced, is Waipiro, though.
He endured a disaster of a run in the Derby where he was slowly away, as a consequence was caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around very wide for a run on the outside.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out, somewhat understandably.
There is also every possibility that he didn’t get the trip, in any case. Though, I thought he actually confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket earlier this season where he kicked on in fine style to win a Novice Stakes, before he finished a strong runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated, though, and certainly seems to be underappreciated in the betting in this easier grade as he drops down to 10 furlongs.
He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield also. That stands up seriously well in this field. Yes, others could improve past that, though not too many look potentially capable of that, right now, at least. While Waipiro himself is open to improvement over this trip.
10pts win – Waipiro @ 12/1
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5.45 Leopardstown: 47-70 Handicap, 7f
This could be a great opportunity for Punk Poet, who seems overpriced. He drops in grade, this is much easier than all his races this year, over a trip he has no issue with and on ground likely to suit.
He dropped significantly in the ratings over last weeks and is down to a dangerously low 69 handicap mark now. There are clear and obvious reasons for that, though, I felt he hinted a return to some form a few times as well.
Back in April in a hot race over 6 furlongs he travelled strongly and finished well, and last month at the Curragh in a super competitive Apprentice Handicap he showed his usual good early speed and ran well until fading badly from 2 furlongs out in deep ground.
Leopardstown tomorrow should ride a bit better, and that will suit. The pace doesn’t look too hot, so from #8 draw he should be able to move across easily to have an ideal spot behind likely pace setter Maggie And Me or Turbine.
If Punk Poet could find anything close to last summers form in these conditions then he’s a big danger to all.
Last year he won off 82 and 83, also ran to an 82 speed rating. He’s versatile ground- and distance wise but probably 7 furlongs is his optimum.
10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/1
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