After a small break on a sunny island in the Atlantic Ocean I’m (nearly) back for the start of the flat season!
March was finally a green month again, having produced a 110pts profit; 4 winners and seven placed selections…. something positive at the end of a tough winter on the sand.
Thankfully, the grind of the All-Weather is over (well, probably not really, for another couple of weeks) and the grind of the flat beings here once again.
3.00 Doncaster: Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes, 6f
Intriguing contest. A handful could have a proper go in this listed contest, but the ground should be key to narrow down the real contenders.
Current favourite Asjad definitely stays the trip and beyond in deep ground as shown in his last three fine runs in autumn 2022, including over this course and distance. He goes well fresh, but has failed to convince on speed ratings in 12 career runs so far.
El Caballo remains a sprinter with plenty of upside. If he’s ready from a long lay-off he should be the one to beat. A Grade 2 winner last May at Haydock, he wasn’t seen since Royal Ascot.
That’s a question mark, as well as the unknown whether he can show the same level of ability to show on deep ground.
Fast Response should enjoy the soft ground as he proved winning a Listed contest over this course and distance when last seen in November. Again he’s one who looks up against it on speed ratings – if the main principles fire.
Commanche Falls is pretty ground independent. He’s got a fine record fresh, and looks a key player if in the same form as last season; however, he’s yet to win outside Handicap company and his very best came on no less than good to soft.
Ehraz remains progressive and has been gelded during is off-season. He’d be seriously interesting on better ground. In soft conditions he may struggle, though, today.
Having said that, King’s Lynn is the one I’m siding with at given prices. He looks clearly overpriced, if fit on his seasonal reappearance.
The fact he ran quite well coming off a break in the past is promising. He’s the finished article by now, so if he can run to last seasons form, he should have a major say in the outcome of this race.
This is easier than his final assignment in 2022, when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. He competed predominantly in hot water last year, but was highly competitive in lesser grades, including when winning the Grade 2 Temple Stakes.
He runs consistently to a good level on speed ratings; his career-best effort over this Doncaster course and distance that came in the Listed Wentworth Stakes in November 2021 makes him a prime contender today, in theory.
Possibly the minimum trip is his optimum, but he obviously stays 6 furlongs, no bother, and loves soft ground. With that in mind he seems seriously overpriced at current exchange prices (8s readily available) although the scenario of a weak pace would count against him, truth told.
10pts win – King’s Lynn @ 8/1