Tag Archives: Wolverhampton

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th November 2023

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Crystal Dawn looks seriously well-handicapped in this poor field today as she drops in class and drops down to her most recent winning mark after a seriously noteworthy lto run.

A fortnight ago at Wolverhampton the mare wasn’t the sharpest at the start and subsequently wasn’t helped by a mad keen rival who kept her on the outside.

As a consequence she travelled wide throughout the race, although seemingly going strongly approaching the home turn. The jockey made zero attempts to actually improve position, though, and started riding when it was way too late.

She wasn’t expected in the betting on the day at all. So no surprise to see her finish the way she did. However, she did ran a number of solid races this year, suggesting there’s some mileage left.

Crystal Dawn is now down to a 53 rating, the same she won off last September over this course and distance, and subsequently off 3lb higher at Wolverhampton as well.

The help of a solid 7lb claimer is an added bonus today. Without a doubt she’s a real standout chance here in this poor 0-52 contest, a much easier race than the one she contest the last two times.

Cheek pieces are added and help, hopefully, with sharpness out of the gate, with the aim to utilise the #3 draw to best effect.

10pts win – Crystal Dawn  @ 7/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd November 2023

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5.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Newyorkstateofmind drops down to the minimum trip today, at Newcastle, off a fair mark – this looks like an ideal test with a solid pace expected, to help him settle and finish strongly.

The 6-year-old gelding is fully exposed, however, has ran only once over this course and distance, earlier this year, and finished a strong third off 3lb higher in a race that wasn’t run at a rapid clip.

His last two runs over 6 furlongs were highly encouraging, though, and he seems to hit strong form. Todays race is competitive but on speed ratings he’s the one I have come out on top, if he runs to form.

Especially after two eye-catching efforts in the last two weeks over 6 furlongs.

At Lingfield, when last seen, he couldn’t quite get to the pace early on and settled near midfield, though he also showed signs of keenness. A good pace and shorter trip should suit today, hence.

He then made strong progress from 3f out and made a gigantic effort toward the dreaded inside rail at Lingfield to even contest the lead over 1f out, before inevitably getting tired.

He was well-fancied that day, perhaps also related to the huge effort prior to it, at Wolverhampton. With that in mind, there is a danger that he can’t run to the same level a third time in this short pace of time.

But I feel the pace, the trip and the stiff finish will suit him really well, being also drawn in and around the pace, he can then track, and granted a clear run, should be able to finish strongly.

10pts win – Newyorkstateofmind @ 7/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 27th October 2023

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Guiteau won well last night. Brilliantly executed ride by Oisin Murphy, who must have read my preview beforehand, as it turned exactly that way – he made most of his draw and the lack of early pace, moved forward, and had enough in the tank to fend off the odds-on favourite.

Sometimes it works out that way. More often than not it doesn’t. A solid confidence booster, nonetheless. Two winners within a week now – what an unknown feeling that is… or was.

…….

8.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The likely hot pace in this race should ensure this is going to be a fair contest over the minimum trip over a CD that often can turn into a “grab the lead and it’s game over”.

There’s probably too much pressure on any of the early leaders today, and that may set it up for someone who’s tracking the pace without getting involved in the early tussle for the lead.

No question the race is competitive, but that helps provide a healthy market with value on offer. One I’m waiting for a handful of months to back is Murbih, who’s certainly too big in the betting, if in it to win it.

Being mindful of the fact the gelding has an entry on Monday at Newcastle, a CD he achieved a career-best back in March.

However, I feel Murbih is well-suited to Wolverhampton, as his record reads 5-1-3, and in some of those races he was quite unfortunate not to finish closer than he did. He usually runs well here.

In addition, the 5-year-old has been in excellent recent form. His latest run earlier this month over this CD was a huge performance. A strongly-run race, he was positioned in midfield, travelled strongly into the home straight. He got past one of the early pace setters approaching the line, however he was also beaten by two horses from off the pace, who were ridden with more restraint.

His two runs prior at Wolverhampton warranted an upgrade due to different circumstances also. In any case, he’s in excellent form, although, on the surface, perhaps also in the grip of the handicapper.

Murbih is down to a 67 handicap mark now, though. A modest reduction from last time-out. He’s not been this low for a while, though, and ran seriously well off higher, including achieving strong speed ratings this year.

And with that in mind I do believe he’s handicapped to win, also keeping in mind the way this race could shape: the #1 will give Murbih the opportunity to let the pace setters from wider draws storm ahead, and he can slot in just behind on the inside saving ground today.

In an ideal world he gets the gap as they turn home and then picks them off to win by half a lengths.

Obviously, he’s a frustrating sort who often runs well and doesn’t win all that often. But this looks a great opportunity, for a horse in form, with a good draw, a lovely mark at his preferred course and distance.

10pts win – Murbih @ 17/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 26th October 2023

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The hot favourite The Caltonian takes most of the market and that doesn’t appear unfair. It’s a question of whether the 4-year old gelding remains ahead of his mark to make it 3 from 3 in blinkers.

He’s got to carry a 10lb penalty, and may be able to continue his W-streak, having ran to a strong speed rating last time out once again. Perhaps this is a hotter contest today, and carrying top-weight won’t be as easy a task, I believe.

No doubt, he’s the likeliest winner, but I feel at the same time he’s a bit too short in a race I wouldn’t call uncompetitive.

The one I find most intriguing as an alternative is Guiteau. He caught the eye last time over this course and distance, albeit in a slightly easier race, when second behind Fayasel, who’s here today as well, and also an intriguing runner with the pace scenario likely to suit.

Nonetheless, Guiteau, only a pound higher than last time, is the one I’m siding with: after a solid start from #3 he travelled well throughout but was somewhat stuck against the inside rail and lost ground as the race developed.

He was held up around the home bend when the crucial moves where made and that cost him the race. Once out in the clear he made strong progress and ran home the fastest over the last three furlongs.

That was only his 3rd run on the All-Weather and close to his career-best. Even though Guiteau remains a maiden, I feel he’s got scope for improvement on the sand and could have a some pounds in hand.

He can be a bit keen early on. Hence pace is a question mark. From his #2 draw I hope with a more experienced rider in the saddle, Murphy won’t hesitate and simply grabs the lead if the early fractions are slow. Guiteau has performed well from the front in the past.

Otherwise, if Fayasal or Mayor Gatsby set out fast, then Guiteau is well placed to track them for a prime spot as the field turns for home. That’s the theory. In any case at 9’s he’s overpriced today.

10pts win – Guiteau @ 9/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #1

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Winter is coming. With that in mind I’m starting a new list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

……..

Jimmy Mark
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Held up in last until he made excellent progress from 4f out. Turned very wide and plenty to do. Not the clearest of runs in the home straight, yet finished much the best.


Clearly still improving after cosy Bath success lto. Outstayed his pedigree so far. Racing style not ideal for AW but a smaller field not contested at a rapid clip over 10f should be fine as he possesses cruising speed and a change of gear likely superior for this grade.

Would be intriguing if he drops in trip as well to a mile as he possesses the speed.

Race Replay

Streetstorm
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Bit keen in the early parts of the race. Restrained in midfield. Travelled strongly to the 2f marker and made strong move around the home bend. Maybe didn’t quite get home in the final furlong.

Still a maiden, however, ran to 60 speed rating over 1m on the AW earlier the year. A drop to a mile or the 8.5f at Wolverhampton could bring out more improvement off a potentially lenient mark. Recent turf run can be ignored.

Race Replay

After John
06/10/23 – 4.02 Newcastle:

Travelled strongly in rear. Made excellent progress on sectionals and visually from 4f out all the way to inside 2f from home. Had a lot to do, though. Ran out off steam eventually.

Clear return to form. Down to dangerous mark. 6f Newcastle obviously interesting next time, as long as there is a solid pace to chance. Otherwise may be worth wait for additional help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Astral Beat
06/10/23 – 5.00 Dundalk:

Ducked left at the start, quickly recovered and moved forward. Soon grabbed the lead and was quick through the first three furlongs going well before falling away from 1.5f out.

Usually a quick starter. Big prices ever since moving to Ireland. Slowly comes down to intriguing mark. Ran to 55+ speed ratings three times last year on the All-Weather. May have a few more runs before fully in the picture for win purposes. Watch the betting.

Race Replay

Sao Timothy
07/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Keen early on, hampered soon after the start and even further lit up as a consequence. Made strong progress from 3f out to be in a challenging position over 1f out. Couldn’t sustain effort but showed good attitude all the way to the line.

Big price, and only second start in handicap company. Should stay the trip on pedigree but may benefit from a drop to a mile or 8.5f. Unexposed, and could be better than this lowly mark.

Race Replay

The Defiant
09/10/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quick start from widest draw. Chased leader, before taking up the lead entering the home straight. Awkward over 1f out before getting tired and swamped. Strong run at big price.

Seems to hit form again and 1lb below last winning mark. Has turf entry next but worth to wait for 5f AW, especially with any additional help from the handicapper and in a race he could dominate.

Race Replay

Guiteau
09/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Solid start, travelled well enough throughout. However, held up around the home bend as trapped on the inside when the crucial moves where made in front of him. Made strong progress once in the clear and still finished best over the last three furlongs.

Only 3rd AW run. Scope for improvement. Should be able to step up to a mile as well. Clearly capable off 58 and possibly a win or two better, as he also ran to 57 speed rating here in less than ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Taritino
11/10/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Quickly moved forward on the outside of the early leaders. Grabbed the lead and fastest through four of first five furlongs, keen as well in first-time blinkers.

No surprise to see him tire badly. 7f looks ideal. Showed some good form over the trip in the past. Unexposed on the All-Weather. Down to intriguing mark when trip and headgear are more suitable.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
11/10/23 – 8.00 Kempton:

Good start, but lit up my moving horse in front of him just before the bend that saw him fall back into tendencies to hang badly. Gave a lot of ground away and needed time to find his feed. Ran home strongly from 2f out, fasted through the final furlong.

Huge ran prior at Wolverhampton from the front as well from wide draw. Obviously a frustrating sort. Not genuine. But also clearly better than OR 74 if he can get his act together. Ideally has an inside draw to get cover on the sides.

Drop to 5f also interesting on a straight, perhaps even with application of headgear once more.

Race Replay

Garrick Painter
13/010/23 – 5.45 Dundalk:

Not the sharpest away and pushed forward, but soon pulled through on the inside to grab the led thanks to the low draw. In front until 2f before getting badly tired. First run for new yard off a small break.

Still lightly enough raced. Ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year. Will come down to intriguing mark over 7f or maybe even more so a mile especially when he gets a good draw once again.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 18th August 2023

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Ideal Guest was a winner on Wednesday – thankfully, finally, one that did what was expected. There’ve been some lean weeks recently. As the gelding romped home at 5/1 SP, half the price I got in the morning, it brought solace to my beaten up betting soul.

…….

4.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

This looks a seriously competitive race for this class and track and this time of the year. Even more so as I’ve got four eyecatchers lining up also.

Nonetheless, the one who does stand out as potentially enjoying this easier grade is 3-year-old gelding Paddy’s Day.

He ran in better grade the last few times, and did so without disgracing himself. In fact, he caught the eye, a number of times for various reasons.

His last two runs especially suggested he’s in pretty good form, albeit finding the opposition a bit too good, still.

Last time at Haydock I also felt Paddy’s Day wasn’t ideally drawn on the far side because race and pace developed away from him to the most part.

He was going okay for a long time, though, and in fact ran the fasted mid-section, yet when it mattered most he struggled to get a clean run through due to horses shifting right in front of him in the closing stages multiple times.

It’s debatable how much of a difference that made as he may have been done by that time anyway, but at the very least he was a theoretical chance to finish closer denied.

Paddy’s Day drops down to 75 and could be dangerous in this easier race, given he showed some promise in the past, including a class 5 Lingfield win off his current mark back in March.

On the negative side, he’s yet to run a speed rating that suggests he’s better than class 5 and the #1 can bring its own dangers.

10pts win – Paddy’s Day @ 9/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #5

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Spartan Arrow
05/06/23 – 5.15 Windsor:

Touched rival soon after the start, lit up as a consequence and seriously keen for most of the race. Was still going strongly on the bridle over 2f out but got stuck behind a wall of horses. Delayed effort, switched to the inside eventually and ran on strongly, although appeared awkward still.

Clearly talented and better than current mark. Was heavily bumped lto at York too, when seemingly coming with a challenge. Tricky sort who will need a pace to chase.

Race Replay

Captain Vallo
05/06/23 – 4.00 Thirsk:

Widest draw away from favourable stands’ side. Travelled strongly prominently in his group, excellent progress before getting tired in the last half furlong.

Superb comeback run. Not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6f on decent to fast ground in an easier race could be interesting, or else worth to wait for a drop by a couple of pounds.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
06/06/23 – 5.30 Lingfield:

Wide draw, had to settle off the pace. Travelled well, good progress over 2f out but had a lot to do. Finished much the best.

Winner in the making, if the handicapper doesn’t react harshly. Excuse Windsor on heavy going. Strong form prior at Lingfield behind well-handicapped winner.

Lightly raced and could still offer more going up in trip as well to try a mile.

Race Replay

Ignac Lamar
06/06/23 – 5.05 Leicester:

Quickly forward, led as part of duo on far side. Gutsy and only went down fighting late. Seriously strong form on speed ratings and form of winner and second.

Possibly better on AW. Down to latest AW winning mark currently and of interest if turned out soon on sand, though also turf not out of it, ideally 6f, may not totally get 7f. Didn’t have many realistic opportunities over 6f on turf.

Race Replay

Lola’s Moment
06/06/23 – 5.45 Wetherby:

Slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually led from 2f out until approaching the final furlong. Briefly accepted challenge before she ran out of gas for good.

Comeback after a break since September 2022. Looks potentially exposed but may be capable o progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look hers.

She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). She should drop further in her mark and may be underestimated over fast five with a good draw.

Race Replay

Ricksen
06/06/23 – 8.30 Wetherby:

Led, though pestered. Travelled full of enthusiasm. Challenged from over 2f out on both sides but kept going strongly and came back for more in the final furlong.

Winner and second were probably well-handicapped, therefore the form has some substance.

7f may be ideal as he can be keen. Could be well able to win one of these low grade races in a race with little pace competition. On a fair mark.

Race Replay

Marksman Queen
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Sluggish start, travelled well off the pace. Held together until about 2f out. Strong response when asked for effort as she cam home much the best over the last two furlongs in particular.

The hood may took off some of her early excitement. She was keen prior, when winning twice on the All-Weather. She may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now.

Given her breeding it’s fair to assume she will improve for switching to turf on fast ground. Remains to be seen how much she has in hand, but intriguing in those conditions.

Race Replay

Beccara Rose
07/06/23 – 7.50 Kempton:

Bit slowly away, soon recovered to race about in midfield. Kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fast over the last three furlongs.

Looks possibly well-handicapped if she switches back to turf on decent ground. Didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action and her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on good to form.

Was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on debut – in soft – last year, though. Should be capable to move up in trip, as well.

Race Replay

The Cruising Lord
07/06/23 – 3.45 Newbury:

Showed good early speed. Kicked well over 2f out. Got tired approaching the final furlong. Excellent return off a long break. Down to a sexy mark if still with appetite.

Not as good as in the past but should be able to improve from this run and looks capable of winning off current 70 OR.

Especially interesting down to 5f again. Best over minimum trip on fast ground, although also capable to act on softer. Probably want to see ideal conditions these days.

Ran really well over 6f nto at Salisbury for a long time in a good race.

Race Replay

Dynamite Katie
07/06/23 – 4.20 Newbury:

Set off at a rapid clip. She ran the first four furlongs faster than the preceding 6f Handicap and the first three furlongs faster than all the other sprint races on the same card, while racing over 7 furlongs herself. She never was likely to get home.

This was her handicap debut and first time on turf. She may have been outclassed here anyway. 7f is a stretch in Handicap company I reckon. A drop to 6f on decent ground could be interesting.

Race Replay

Le Brok Cafe
07/06/23 – 2.00 Newbury:

Rapid start, excellent early speed. Goin okay to 3f out before under pressure. Fell away quickly. Ran better than the price. Probably good form.

Only second career-run. Will be interesting once she qualified for a mark, perhaps mostly as she drops to the minimum trip as well.

Race Replay

Pearle D’or
08/06/23 – 6.40 Yarmouth:

Quickly established lead. Enjoyed the front, kicked on well from 2f out and broke the hearts of most, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace.

2nd start of new yard, changed hands for 40k. Showed some promise in Ireland and may have more to offer on decent ground. May not be out of question he stays 7f either.

Has ran at Hamilton in the meantime. And odd ride, which I’m prepared to forgive.

Race Replay

Lordsbridge Girl
08/06/23 – 8.40 Yarmouth:

Good start, tracked the early pace, ever so slightly disadvantaged by the shifting leader early on. Badly shot of room from over 2f out all the way to the final furlong practically, where she ran home strongly.

Huge run. In line with what she showed on the AW. A mile is absolute maximum. Probably best over 7f with pace but fast ground a mile not out of it. She’s still quite unexposed on turf.

Excellent nto run with strong speed rating. Made effort on the outside away from the rail which didn’t seem ideal on the day. Likely strong form.

Race Replay

Bell Song
08/06/23 – 8.50 Chelmsford:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Didn’t get in and was caught wide approaching the turn and had to move forward for a slightly improved position. Impressive how she was able to kick and stay well to the line despite all the trouble.

Handicap debut, looks capable to win off her mark, especially based on her seasonal reappearance at Southwell, which was seriously strong form. A strong pace over 7f should help. Unexposed on turf.

Ran an unfortunate race at Sandown in the meantime. Did well in the circumstances and better than that.

Race Replay

Khanjar
08/06/23 – 3.35 Hamilton:

Slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw ad racing wide away from the usually more favoured stands’ side. Made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Ran 4 (+ equal in one) of 6 furlongs faster than the eventual winner.

Can’t be harshly assessed for this and remains of interest. Didn’t run quite a speed ratings in the 90s but looks capable. Bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps.

Ran better at York on his seasonal debut than bare result. Strong, galloping sort who stays well up a stiff finish.

Race Replay

Lady Lade
09/06/23 – 1.40 Thirsk:

Clear disadvantage being drawn low and away from the pace. After a solid start lost quickly a lot of ground, about 7 lengths behind the leader 3f out.

Made tremendous progress against the bias and finished much the best over the last 3f, although paid a bit of tribute in the closing stages to a strong mid-race splits.

Only won once in handicap company, off 68 last year, ran to 66 speed rating. becomes quite competitive now off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Mrs Trump
09/06/23 – 3.10 Thirsk:

Tough from the #1 draw, moved quickly toward the centre. Bit short of room when a gap closed and she had to delay her effort and be switched. Ran very well given the circumstances.

Clearly in strong form. Ran a huge race last time at Ripon and had excuses at Southwell, too. Still a maiden but dangerous once she gets a good draw.

Race Replay

Wedgewood
09/06/23 – 2.00 Brighton:

Badly bumped soon after the start, still moved rapidly forward and let first 2-3f at a fast pace. Gradually tired.

Ran better than bare performance lto too. Finished tired last two now, maybe needs a small break. Interesting afterwards. off possibly revised mark over 5f on turf still, may not stay 6f, also may be better on AW but could be capable on turf too.

Won seriously well when last seen on AW and ran a good race at Windsor in a really hot Handicap in the meantime.

Race Replay

Fragrence
10/06/23 – 6.55 Chepstow:

Blistering early speed, led by a couple of lengths. Gradually tired. Small field but very strong race with rivals in good form.

Ran to multiple speed ratings last season that suggest she is capable off her revised 60 mark. Dangerous in the easier race where she can lead on decent ground over 5f.

Race Replay

Raasel
10/06/23 – 1.15 Haydock:

Probably not quite advantaged by having to make his effort on the widest outside against the far rail after travelling well held up until over 2f out. Made huge progress thanks to fastest furlong two out, before getting understandably tired late.

Huge run, still run fastest the last 3f. Can be forgiven previous Haydock run due to severe draw bias and ran well on his seasonal reappearance. Could be underestimated next time.

Not disgraced in hot Group 1 at Royal Ascot in the meantime.

Race Replay

El Caballo
10/06/23 – 3.35 Haydock:

Slightly awkward start. Tracked the pace in third, was going well and waiting to make a challenge from three furlongs out. Couldn’t get a run on the inside, was several times short of room and hampered 1f out. Finished easy on the eye.

Excellent run and may have gone closer with clear run. Not sure he truly stays 7f at this level on turf, but chance given on fast ground. Probably better over 6f. Obviously superb on sand, but may be underestimated on turf.

Race Replay

Royal Charter
10/06/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Seriously keen when held up early on. Was going okay and kept up to work from over 3f out, but route to progress closed until over 1f out behind horses as she was also hanging to the left. Finished much the best.

Strong seasonal reappearance. Obviously more to come. Does stay 7f no problems. Needs to settle better and follow a strong pace. Drop to 6f not out of question, either.

Race Replay

Ascot Adventure
10/06/23 – 2.40 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a duo. Rolled down the hill, quite inefficient sectionals. Was able to actually kick on somewhat in the home straight once again. Impressive, before getting tired late.

Huge run. Joint career-2nd best speed rating (78). 7.5f stretches his stamina. Best over 7f, ground independent. Also 6f with plenty of cut possible.

Down to good mark. Any additional help from the handicapper a bonus as he looks in top form in the right race.

Was seriously disappointing at Thirsk in the meantime. However, deserves another chance as the ground turned that day and the race developed into a strange one down the stands’ rail.

Race Replay

Swinging Eddie
10/06/23 – 3.20 Catterick:

Great early pace. Led early on, but always pressured. Did way too much in the first half of the race and did extremely well to finish as well as he did.

In superb form this year. Ran to 61 speed rating when winning at Beverley. Possibly a touch better on decent ground. Down to fair mark and capable of winning still. Ran to better speed ratings last season and looks in similar form.

Race Replay

Physique
11/06/23 – 1.35 Goodwood:

Caught wide and without cover from the highest draw. Couldn’t get in until halfway through the race. Gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by then. Got ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2f out before he finished the fastest over the last two furlongs regardless.

Fair to say with a better draw and run he would have won. Lightly raced, has scope off his current mark as he should be should be already a 95+ horse.

Has shown he handles fast ground without a problem. Should have options to stay a mile but maybe too keen at this stage of his career.

Ran a big race for a long time in a hot Handicap at Royal Ascot in the meantime. Maybe didn’t quite get home over the stiff mile there.

Race Replay

First Ruler
11/06/23 – 4.25 Goodwood:

Trailed the small field. Looked a bit awkward around the home turn, probably not helped that the pace increased significantly at that point. Niggled and reminder received and had to made progress right into the fastest part of the race, no advantage from off the pace. Ran home strongest.

Return run. Deserves and upgrade. Ran a 91 speed rating in Meydan when winning over 12f. and seems still progressive with age and maturity.

Stays the trip obviously, but would love to see him over 10f with a fast pace to chase. Could bring out improvement and maybe good enough to land a Group 3. Didn’t have many opportunities of that sort.

Race Replay

Mattice
11/06/23 – 3.45 Beverley:

Started quickly, did a lot in the first three furlongs to grab the lead and stay there. Tired badly in the final furlong. Strong run, competitive race.

Comes slowly down in ratings and class. Ran often in ultra-competitive races. Looks capable still, certainly in an easier race, where he can dominate.

Race Replay

Winter Crown
11/06/23 – 5.15 Beverley:

Second widest draw, caught wide early, then caught behind a wall of horses. Had to delay his run and fight for a gab to finally get out in the clear, re-organise himself with less than a furlong to go to run home strongly.

Was unfortunate from a poor draw, away from the pace, and short of room lto as well. Clearly better than OR 76. Should be hard to beat if moving back up to 6f, but a stiff 5f seem fine too. Fast ground no issue.

Race Replay

La Roca Del Fuego
12/06/23 – 5.08 Windsor:

Started quickly, led against the inside rail, under pressure as he stayed there while main bunch went away from the inside. Weakened rapidly. Rain and ground probably turned against him.

Better on AW and definitely needs fast ground on turf. Was well-backed here, and ran with plenty of credit from the front lto. Down to dangerous mark on turf and sand over 5f.

Race Replay

Dulcet Sprit
12/06/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Moved forward to grab the lead and led by a couple of lengths setting a good, honest, even pace. Was much faster through the first half than the eventual winner and second. Showed good attitude right to the line.

First time on turf, definitely looks like one who enjoys fast ground. Wasn’t expected, and neither in her last starts. Won well off 58 on the AW and should come down to intriguing mark on turf as well, especially in a race where she can dominate.

Wouldn’t be out of it if she drops to 6f in a race with not much pace to compete. Ideally see her drop below a mark off 58.

Race Replay

Get Off Me
12/06/23 – 5.00 Lingfield:

Started alright, got to the rail and led, did more than the rest in a hotly contested run. Excellent 4f performance before tired badly, although quite understandable given the early exertions.

Followed on nicely from huge run lto on the AW when he finished seriously strongly in a hot race for the grade, after missing the break. Can be sluggish at the start. Maybe headgear can help.

Looks to have pace for the minimum trip certainly. Huge runner if he drops back in grade with a solid start.

Race Replay

Grant Wood
12/06/23 – 8.30 Pontefract:

Wide draw, slowly away, perhaps by design. Settled in rear, trailing as the field turned for home. Loads to do but kept answering calls and accelerated well making solid progress against the inside. Not quite clear run over 1f out and jockey seemed happy enough to concede defeat.

Wasn’t in it to go close. Changed yards. Seasonal reappearance. Should come one and probably be better over 7f. Ran 72 speed rating last year. Up in trip and some money in the betting will tell whether the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Jimmy Lifestyle
13/06/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Covered up early, tried to unwind for challenge from over 3f out on the outside which seemed a difficult place to come from. Didn’t get overly hard ride and ran on well to the line.

Looks a big lad and may improve with racing. Up in trip to 7f could be interesting of a revised mark as he may not quite have the speed for 6f.

Race Replay

Sam’s Call
15/06/23 – 4.20 Nottingham:

Not ideally drawn and slightly bumped by rival out of the gate. Not ideally placed behind horses and short of room 2f out, had to switch ever so slightly, lost momentum, before running home strongly. Finished 3 of last 4 furlongs faster than well-handicapped winner. Good form.

Can hit flat spot in the middle of his races. Best over 5f. Down to dangerous mark, although not prolific and doesn’t deserve many chances.

Race Replay

Rum Cocktail
15/06/23 – 7.10 Haydock:

Travelled in rear before making ever so slightly progress while niggled covered up behind a wall of horses, never seemed to be entirely happy. Bulldozed her way through a gap from 2f out, shifted, slightly unbalanced before galvanized to mount challenge.

Finished joint best last 3f. Bit unlucky to finish only 3rd. Down to good mark. Ran solid speed ratings this year already. Dangerous over minimum trip on decent ground, but 6f could be worth a try and unlock improvement too.

Race Replay

Azazat
16/06/23 – 6.35 Cork:

Close up with the pace, tracked the leader. Was going well, but got stuck behind the first two from 3f out which gave the eventual winner the opportunity for a decisive move. Switched 2f out and found plenty for pressure.

Unfortunate, but strong form. Excellent 96 speed rating which gives her a crack at Graded race. Still lightly enough race to see some improvement that would see her competitive against the better 3yo fillies over 12f.

Race Replay

Tafreej
17/06/23 – 3.20 Chester:

Not ideally drawn and bit slowly away, confined to the rear of the field. Got unbalanced around the home turn as she was also short of room until hitting the straight. Ran home the fastest.

Still unexposed and looks certainly ready to move up in trip. The dam won over 1m 4f. Interesting over a mile at least, and offers potential off 84.

Race Replay

Rathbone
17/06/23 – 5.25 York:

Excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long.

This was a competitive race. Ran well in good Handicap lto. Clearly back in form and could win in a less competitive race and a front-runner track. Won off 90 and ran to 86 speed rating last summer. Maybe not quite as good these days but on a dangerous mark.

Race Replay

Tees George
18/06/23 – 5.00 Doncaster:

Bumped early on by a rival. Settled in rear. Was able to answer the accelerations after a pedestrian opening, and ran on well on the outside, easily under hands and heels in the final furlong.

Should certainly for a step up in trip. 7-8f probably no issue at all on pedigree. Still lightly raced and mark 0f 60 offers opportunities.

Race Replay

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #4

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.

Lil Guff
22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:

Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.

Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.

A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.

Race Replay

Good Earth
22/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.

Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.

Race Replay

Albegone
22/05/23 – 2.35 Carlisle:

Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.

Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.

Race Replay

Fiftyshadesofred
23/05/23 – 8.30 Ayr:

Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.

Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.

Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.

Race Replay

Mr Beaufort
24/05/23 – 4.30 Ayr:

Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.

Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.

Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.

Race Replay

Jojo Rabbit
24/05/23 – 4.30 Ayr:

Pushed a hot pace from the front with Mr Beaufort. Didn’t last quite as long but still showed a good attitude here. Strong form most likely.

Ran twice to higher speed ratings than his current 75 mark. Flexible regarding ground but decent to fast ground ideal over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

The Waiting Game
25/05/23 – 5.12 Catterick:

Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.

Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.

Race Replay

Lulworth Cove
25/05/23 – 3.30 Haydock:

Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.

Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.

Race Replay

Griggy
26/05/23 – 4.30 Bath:

Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.

Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.

Race Replay

Half Nutz
26/05/23 – 7.00 Curragh:

Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.

Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.

Race Replay

Vegas Jack
26/05/23 – 5.00 Haydock:

Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.

Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.

Race Replay

Canute
27/05/23 – 4.15 Curragh:

Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.

Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.

If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.

Race Replay

Farnborough:
27/05/23 – 4.15 Curragh:

Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.

Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.

Race Replay

Bodorgan
27/05/23 – 2.25 Haydock:

His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.

May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.

Race Replay

Happy Romance
27/05/23 – 3.30 Haydock:

Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.

Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.

Race Replay

De Bruyne
27/05/23 – 4.10 Haydock:

Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.

Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.

Race Replay

Roman Dragon
27/05/23 – 4.45 Haydock:

Grabbed the lead, set solid pace, travelled strongly to 2f marker. Fought gamely but empty half a furlong from home.

Maybe doesn’t quite get 7f. All wins over 6f. Down to 80 could be dangerous if he drops down in trip again. Ran last year twice 82+ speed ratings.

Race Replay

Cairo
27/05/23 – 3.40 Curragh:

Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.

Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.

Race Replay

Batchelor Boy
30/05/23 – 4.10 Brighton:

Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.

Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.

Race Replay

Thegreatestshowman
30/05/23 – 8.45 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.

Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.

Race Replay

Shine’s Ambition
30/05/23 4.20 Redcar:

Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.

Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.

Race Replay

Antagonize
30/05/23 – 4.55 Redcar:

Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.

Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.

Race Replay

Giant
01/06/23 – 4.30 Yarmouth:

Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.

Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.

Race Replay

Cubanista
01/06/23 – 5.00 Yarmouth:

Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.

May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.

Race Replay

Eagle Day
02/06/23 – 5.05 Doncaster:

Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.

Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.

Race Replay

Stalingrad
02/06/23 – 9.00 Catterick:

Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.

Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.

Race Replay

Nibras Rainbow
03/06/23 – 7.10 Lingfield:

Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.

Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.

Race Replay

Essme
03/06/23 – 8.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.

Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.

Race Replay

Coumshingaun
03/06/23 – 3.00 Listowel:

Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.

Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.

Race Replay

Latin Five
04/06/23 – 5.15 Nottingham:

Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.

Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.

He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.

Race Replay

……..

Epsom Derby
03/06/23 – 1.30 Epsom:

A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.

King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.

White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.

Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.

It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.

He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.

Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.

Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.

He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.

Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.

Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.

However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.

Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.

He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.

Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.

Betting

Monday Selections: 5th June 2023

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Gutsy Eponina at Nottingham. She made all and kept going and going to win well (5/1 SP). After drawing a blank on Saturday this was needed. Unfortunately there was no additional winner to be added on Sunday.

Greatgadian was beaten by the draw. No chance from his position as he settled at the back of the field and had to quicken from well off the pace in a sprint finish. A great effort to finish 3rd, though.

Continuous was a major disappointment in the Prix Du Jockey Club. He didn’t have any excuses, though. He was in a good position, got there easily and simply wasn’t good enough on the day.

A good first June week. Three winners. Too good to be true? On to Monday… I’m always am nervous when having so many bets in a single day as on this Monday. But they were all significant eyecatchers and appear overpriced.

If one goes in all is well, happy days. If they all get beaten, a realistic prospect, it’s getting ugly quickly. Joy and despair are can be separated by inches in this game.

…..

4.00 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Hail Sezer was a huge eyecatcher last time out and hasn’t been too harshly penalised for a nose beaten 2nd place. He’s clearly in fine form and should run a huge race.

At prices I must go with Late Arrival, though, who caught the eye the last time at Pontefract, as he followed on from a hugely encouraging seasonal reappearance at Haydock.

Ten days ago at Pontefract over 5 furlongs he had a quick start, tracked the pace but came under pressure from over 2f out and seemed to go backwards before coming back and staying well to the line.

Another strong performance and form behind a very strong winner. He’s better over 6 furlongs, though, especially on fast ground.

Therefore moving back up in trip, while dropping into an easier grade, he’s dangerous after having been eased another pound. He ran to 70 and 71 speed ratings last season and looks in similar form, clearly ready for another big performance off 69.

10pts win – Late Arrival 15/2

…………

4.15 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Stay Smart ran a huge race on Saturday at Musselburgh. He was bumped at the start quite badly, and had to play catch-up as a consequence. He travelled wide on the outside where he made tremendous progress to challenge the leader, but understandably tired in the final furlong to fall back.

He confirmed the promise shown over this course and distance last month when he raced from the front and also achieved a good speed rating, the best in over 1.5 years. That performance warranted an upgrade too, in my book:

He moved quickly forward and led the field at a good pace. He travelled well and found plenty for pressure from 2f out. Ultimately he was only beaten inside the final furlong by two ridden with more restraint.

Stay Smart had a tough time since losing his form in early 2022. He changed yards, tumbled down the weights and has been gelded and had a wind operation. He appears to be in excellent shape now, though, and looks the one to beat with a clear run.

10pts win – Stay Smart @ 7/2

…..

4.30 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Obviously Lady Rascal is of interest as she moves up in trip. 1m 4f will suit her really well. She got off the mark in fine style over ten furlongs recently after a strong handicap debut.

She is one of my Handicappers to follow this year, but so is Folk Star. Lady Rascal could be well-handicapped today, yet on prices Folk Star makes plenty of appeal (for the moment, money is coming already) as she makes her handicap debut and moves up right away to the correct trip for her.

She had two lovely runs of educational matter as a juvenile where she looked much better than the bare results. She was never asked a question, yet finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth.

Her seasonal reappearance in April over a mile in deep ground can be safely ignored form wise. The 1m trip, also possibly ground was not right and it counted simply as a pipe opener. With that she qualified for a mark off 64 and that could underestimate her as she moves up significantly in trip.

Folk Star is a May foal and has plenty of scope to improve, especially as she moves up in distance. She’s beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time as well.

Le Have offspring improves with age too. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Not sure whether the track and fast ground will suit, but let’s find out.

10pts win – Folk Star @ 4/1

……..

5.45 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Big R is the one to beat. Most likely I wasn’t the only one who wanted to hit something really hard after he finished a desperately unlucky second last Saturday.

He’s only 1lb higher and has a massive shout. Again, at given prices, it’s another eyecatcher I’ll side with, though.

My Mate Mike moved quickly forward to lead at Salisbury when last seen as he dropped down to 6 furlongs. He showed solid early speed and clearly did too much in the first half of the race. I thought he did really well to hold on for third.

That was a strong race and form for the level of race. There were multiple lto winners and horses in strong form in the field.

As he gets another chance over 6 furlongs here having been dropped 1lb as well I feel this lightly raced gelding could be underestimated.

10pts win – My Mate Mike @ 9/1

…….

7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Hot and competitive race with a solid pace certain. You can make a case for many, though, off 81 Cuban Breeze appears tremendously well-handicapped, especially as she ran pretty well when last see at Windsor.

She made too much there from the front in deep conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs he showed in most of her more recent runs.

She drops down to class 4 and lost another 2lb, with that she 4lb lower than her last winning mark, albeit that came on turf. Cuban Breeze is as good on the All-Weather, though.

She enjoys this course and distance, although perhaps 6 furlongs is the absolute maximum of her stamina. That’s a worry in a fast race here.

On the other hand, I feel from her #3 draw, despite plenty of potential pace pressure, her early speed could see her establish a lead and she could go all the way then.

10pts win – Cuban Breeze @ 15/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 23rd May 2023

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2.23 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

I can easily rule out the vast majority of this field on price or conditions. But I do end up with my two eyecatchers left – Master Sully and I’m Mable – and struggle to develop any preference.

Both geldings are completely wrong prices here in my view and I feel they both have better chances to win the race than their prices would tell. Hence this calls for the rare measure that I split my stake.

Both lads have their quirks, and that’s the reason why they find themselves in this poor 0-55 contest. I’m Mable is top-rated, and clearly better than this grade, if on a going day.

He drops in grade here, and has shown significant improvement in his latest runs, suggesting he’s in strong form and ready for a big run.

I loved his latest Lingfield effort when he travelled strongly on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. He cam home strongly.

He was somewhat unfortunate on his penultimate run as well. He can make a mess at the gate, though. And 5.5f in combination with rattling fast ground is a bit of a question mark given his best turf form comes over 5f on soft. But he has shown to handle these conditions, and I can see him finish strongly from off the pace.

Master Sully is not a talented individual but he’s a bit better than a 46 rating. He won a Conditions Stakes in January and followed up with a number of solid efforts in defeat.

His last three runs all caught the eye for numerous reasons, suggesting he is in good form. A switch to turf may do the trick. He’s still rather lightly raced on turf, but ran pretty well on three occasions last season from 5-6f on a variety of ground conditions.

His best turf effort cam on fast ground and he was a bit unlucky over this CD last September. He can have his own issues at the gate, but if gets away alright I reckon he should be a solid victory ahead of his turf mark right now.

5pts win – Master Sully @ 9/1
5pts win – I’m Mable @ 8/1

……..

3.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Mudlahhim  sets high enough standard for this grade after latest impressive 3rd place effort over this same course and distance, less than two weeks ago.

If he has recovered from that huge performance, he’s certain to go close as he ran to an excellent 59 speed rating in line with his current mark.

He moved quickly forward to establish a solid lead and set a decent pace. I quite liked that he was able to kick on from halfway through the race, before gradually tiering from 2f out, beaten by a well-handicapped winner in the closing stages.

He must be in strong form, as evidence a number of times prior in this sort of grade. He didn’t land a blow in a class 5 at Southwell, but also his 3rd place three runs back over 8.5f rates a strong performance.

He shouldn’t face too much pace pressure here. If they allow him to establish a soft lead he’d be hard to get back to.

10pts win – Mudlahhim @ 11/2