Tag Archives: Selections

Wednesday Selections: February, 27th 2019

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7.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3f

Monsieur Fox is still a maiden, but the gelding has outran in half of his lifetime starts his SP, and therefore market expectation, quite considerably. He did so in January running to a career best 3rd place finish here at Kempton as well as a 44/1 BSP chance.

Consistency is the question: can he back up the latest performance? Monsieur Fox didn’t only outran his price tag but also the track bias that day, as the 10f trip at Kempton heavily favours the speed horses. He, though, was held up and turned widest home, finishing strongly eventually.

That form looks strong with the runner-up winning subsequently a race that has also worked out well already.

This will only be his 4th All-Weather start, he also remains on the same 55 handicap mark, with a better draw and a trip over a fairer course and distance, with champion jockey Luke Morris in the saddle, there is a good chance for a repeat performance which could be enough to see Monsieur Fox go close.

Selection:
10pts win – Monsieur Fox @ 14/1 MB

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Monday Selection: February, 24th 2019

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7.55 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

If not for his running style that frequently sees him finding trouble when it matters most getting clear passage, King of Naples would have won more often than he has to date. There is no denying he is well in here, particularly now dropping down to class 6.

One only has to re-watch his latest efforts, particularly the penultimate one over course and distance, where he was cantering all over the field but simply couldn’t get a run. Last time out, when last of 11, the bare form looks worse than it is, as King of Naples was simply carried out wider and wider which killed off his chances.

And that is the main issue: he needs the breaks in the closing stages. If King of Naples can get finally a run through, he’ll hammer this field I’m pretty sure. He certainly has the aid of a top man in the saddle, who comes here for this one ride only also.

Selection:
10pts win – King of Naples @ 8/1 PP

Saturday Selections: February, 23rd 2019

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1.30 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

With the champ on board, Hidden Depths looks poised for a big run returning to Lingfield. In his two starts since changing yards and coming back from a break the gelding has ran well, but now dropping in trip to 10f should suit.

He’s got a good draw which hopefully ensures a prominent position. Two runs back here at Lingfield over 12f in a maiden Hidden Depths tried to make all from the front going pretty hard, leading by as many as ten lengths. He got tired eventually but judged on that piece of form he looks competitive in this field.

His latest performance at Southwell was okay, but he didn’t seem to travel with the same fluency on fibresand. As a maiden after nine career runs he has all to prove, nonetheless, a key piece of form could a Novice Stakes run from last summer over 10f at Windsor, which looks a strong bit of form, as he was only beaten by a subsequent class 2 handicap winner now rated in the 90’s.

Selection:
10pts win – Hidden Depths @ 6/1 MB

………

2.05 Lingfield: Listed Hever Sprint Stakes, 5f

This will be fast and furrious and we know with these sprinters they are usually closely matched and throwing a blanket over this field, anyone is in with a fair shout.

Favourite Encore d’Or looks the one all have to beat, though. He’s in fine form, group placed and was a close runner-up in this race last year.

However better value looks Corinthia Knight, who is much bigger then he should be, probably due to recency bias on the back of a few less impressive runs.

That says, at level weights it should be a lot easier here, actually. Also down to 5f at Lingfield, a CD where he is 2/2. The four-year old was last years Year Old All-weather Championships winner.

Corinthia Knight got the perfect draw to be close to the pace. He’s 2lb lower rated on BHA ratings to the favourite, however 1lb higher on RPR’s. I expect a big performance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Corinthia Knight @ 11/2 MB

……….

3.50 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1 mile

Mr Scaramanga returns quickly after finishing full of running at this venue yesterday when pretty unlucky in a 7f event. His draw and sometimes starting habits killed off his chances as he didn’t get a clear run through the field while travelling much the best, though.

That is a fine follow-up effort in line with his penultimate CD win, when albeit only by tight margin, he won cozily. Mr Scaramanga is still only 2lb higher for that effort, which, judged by what we know he is capable of on the All-Weather could underestimate him, given he seems in top order.

He has some form with others in the field from the past, when he was a lot higher rated, such as his close runner-up performance in this very same race twelve months ago, finishing a nose beaten of a mark of 99.

Selection:
10pts win – Mr Scaramanga @ 4/1 WH

Friday Selections: February, 22nd 2019

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4.40 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f 

First time out for a new yard, relatively unexposed Gendarme looks significantly overpriced today. On paper he hasn’t shown too much for Richard Hannon, however a closer look shows a horse slipping down to an intriguing mark over a trip that’ll be close to his optimum.

Still a maiden, but his last two runs were quite promising, in better class, over slightly shorter, on both occasions at Kempton Gendarme wasn’t beaten all that far, in races that have worked out quite well.

The most recent of those looks quite strong form. Gendarme travelled supremely well that day until the 2f marker and ran well to the line, though not having quite the speed to quicken as required against some good opposition.

Dropping down in class, an additional furlong with a bit less weight – given he has ran to consistent RPR’s around his current mark and achieved a significantly higher career highest TS rating less than a year ago, albeit on turf, suggests he may be ripe for a big run.

Selection:
10pts win – Gendarme @ 21/1 MB

………

6.15 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Jack The Truth is proven class here as a course and distance winner a 3-1-1 record. He’s in fine form, having ran to a career best in January at Southwell over 6f and following up with two excellent performances over 5- and 6f respectively here at Chelmsford.

Those were hot races, and he looked like the winner entering the final furlong lto, though found the 6f a bit too far eventually. Dropping back to the minimum trip, off a fair mark, Jack The Truth appears weighted to go really close.

With not too much opposition likely to be handicapped to win, he’s a rock solid choice and should be more like a 5/2 shot in my book.

Selection:
10pts win – Jack The Truth @ 7/2 MB

…….

8.15 Chelmsford: Class 7 Handicap, 1m 6f

This is a long-shot quite literally, but London Glory is interesting here for a new trainer returning from a break. He has been dropping significantly in the weights and you have to hope change in scenery can revive him – he may well have lost the appetite for the game.

But of his current mark, dropping into the lowest grade, over a suitable 1m 6f trip, he’s one not to underestimate if he can find back to somewhere close of his better form.

A year ago London Glory finished a fine runner-up at Wolverhampton over this trip and his record shows he ran six times to TS ratings similar or above his current handicap mark.

Selection:
10pts win – London Glory @ 23/1 MB

Thursday Selections: February, 21st 2019

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4.10 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 6 furlongs

Despite returning from a longer break, top weight Zylan looks an intriguing contender here given his excellent course record. The seven year old is four from five here and two from two over CD.

His last success came last summer of a 3lb lower mark. Effectively 5lb higher today, given the same apprentice is on board and claims two pound less these days. That was a strong effort though, giving the impression Zylan could still have a lot more to offer over CD.

Returning from a break is no red flag at all. His record fresh is quite excellent as he did the last two seasons over the minimum trip here at Southwell, when he won and was a fine runner-up respectively.

Selection:
10pts win – Zylan @ 7/1 MB

……..

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5 furlongs

The favourite Gorgeous General looks hard to beat for obvious reasons, but in truth his record over the minimum trip isn’t that impressive to not take him on, particularly with a strong alternative.

Kyllukey has ran well on his return to the track first time out for the Wallis yard. He was fancied that day, so expected to perform. He now returns to Southwell, he’s only had a single start here a few years ago but seemingly took well to the fibresand.

He’s fallen significantly in the ratings over the last while, nonetheless he ran with credit more often than not. A race like this, that could suit, plus the additional aid of a fair 5lb claimer on board, should give him a prime chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Kyllukey @ 6/1 MB

Sunday Selections: Dublin Racing Festival

Dedigout and Paul Carberry

Big day at Leopardstown today – day two of the Dublin Racing Festival! The Irish Gold Cup is on the menu, serving a fin main dish.

That despite the weather turning for the worse. Saturday was such a lovely, sunny, crisp and clear winter day – 24 hours later it’s rather windy, grey and dirty. Still, there isn’t a lot of water coming down from the sky, which means the ground continued to dry out and remains on the good side.

That has seen plenty of on-runners already, and that in turn makes some of those races on the card today quite interesting betting contests.

So, unusually for me, I’ve found three pretty strong bets!

…….

2.25 Leopardstown: Grade B Handicap, 3 miles

Despite a 7lb raise in his handicap mark, unexposed Cuneo looks ready to follow-up on an impressive Christmas success that came over course and distance. He has the making of a better than 133 rated individual, even though future will clearly be over fences.

The last time at Leopardstown, in massive 28-runner strong field, he travelled always close enough to the pace but showed signs of greenness throughout, making it a tricky ride for Rachael Blackmore.

Nonetheless Cuneo’s eye-catching progress over three out had the making of a talented individual. And even though he nearly messed things up approaching the final fence, he ran on well, while appearing to be doing as much as needed to win the race.

There should be plenty more improvement to come with this fella and if he gets a clear run of things today should be hard to stop. Even more so as he seems to enjoy good ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Cuneo @ 7/2 MB

……..

3.35 Leopardstown: Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup, 3 miles

The flagship contest of the Dublin Racing Festival has been thrown wide open with the drying ground and the withdraws of quite a few interesting runners.

That should make it a clear thing between Al Boum Photo and Road To Respect? Noel Meade’s charges enjoys good ground maybe the little bit better and is proven class – he’ll be tough to beat. On the other hand, despite his overall positive record, he’s one who can also find trouble and get beaten when he shouldn’t – in my mind.

I’m yet to be fully convinced by Al Boum Photo, particularly on this ground. Punchestown Gold Cup hero Bellshill is the more attractive Willie Mullins runner.

As the field is much smaller now than initially thought, this could turn into a tactical contest also. And that’s why I feel this is much more open than the market suggests. Probably more open than it was if anyone would have lined up?

Edwulf will appreciate any drop of rain that’s currently falling. Will it be enough? Remains to be seen.

I am keen at a massive price – though falling all the time already – on the aging Outlander. He’s not getting any younger, his best days may be beyond him. But he ran okayish, without setting the world alight, in three starts this season.

I’m pretty sure this was his target all along. Outlander loves Leopardstown – he’s a different animal here – and he loves a bit of decent ground. He was runner-up in this very race last year. So he must rate a live chance. A better one than 4% in my book.

Selection:
10pts win – Outlander @ 24/1 MB

…….

4.10 Leopardstown: Grade A Handicap Chase, 2m 5f

Competitive contest in its nature, but I feel only few are weighted to win, particularly on the rather fast ground. I can make good cases for favourite Speaker Connolly – though it’s a skinny price, really, De Name Escapes Me or Cadmium, but it’s the ever improving Cubomania who catches my eye.

The 6-year-old has been progressive over fences, ever since having a wind operation during the summer. He won five times since then, and has been a highly creditable runner-up in his last two starts.

His latest effort at Fairyhouse in particular proved he still finds more. The favourite had a bit too much speed in the end but Cubomania stayed on very strongly after a good round of jumping.

The grey will enjoy the step up in trip and has quite an excellent record on better ground. So, while he has to defy a career highest mark, there is a good chance he can find the improvement needed – as long as he gets a clear run, which is the worry if he drops in in this big field.

Selection:
10pts win – Cubomania @ 13/1 MB

Tuesday Selections: January, 29th 2019

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6.15 Wolverhampton, Class 5 Handicap, 6f 

At given prices I feel it’s worth siding with Kirby mount Big Time Maybe. The 4yo races second from a break and wind OP and is significantly below his last winning mark. He won of 5,- 11,- and 12 pounds higher in the past – albeit over 5f.

He’ll need to stretch out over this additional furlong, but there is reason to believe he can. His comeback run gives certainly hope he’ll improve from it. A fair race and effort, the winner, travelling at the back of the field, won subsequently. Big Time Maybe set a fair pace and only faded late.

He’s got a good draw today, so should be able to be up there, may even dominate and set a pace that suits him most. With fitness assured and the breathing fine, hopefully, he may be able to take advantage of a slipping mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Time Maybe @ 12/1 MB