3.05 Chester: Listed Dee Stakes, 1m 2.5f
This looks a seriously competitive renewal of the Dee Stakes, with 4 of 5 colts certainly open to improvement over this trip, with hopes that they will enhance their own Derby credentials.
Obviously, God’s Widow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my Horses to Follow this year, today is an important day for his future prospects.
Initially, having seen the early prices, I wasn’t prepared to back him at short enough odds. But I’m happy to take the drift right now, prices in the realms of 10/3 a touch too big.
The betting has Jayarabe as the 2/1 favourite this morning. You can see why. Two from three, and an impressive seasonal reappearance in the Feilden Stakes last month, he ran to a solid 96 speed rating that day, proved his fitness, and will appreciate moving up in trip today as well.
I can’t fault him other than Chester is a different track that may or may not suit. We don’t know where his ceiling is. The only thing I have against him is the price.
On the other hand, I’m not sure what to make of Bracken’s Laugh. A fine winning return at Chelmsford recently over a mile, he showed promise on his debut, though didn’t get home in deep ground over 10 furlongs, albeit in hot company.
Capulet was beaten by Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford, perhaps with some slight excuses. His juvenile form is setting a good standard, and he should enjoy moving up in trip and surely will be ready to go today.
For all that, the O’Brien yard doesn’t seem in brilliant form lately, and Capulet is likely far down the pecking order, too. A career-best 89 speed rating up until now doesn’t scream “superstar” either.
Harper’s Ferry can’t be totally ignored. He’s got to improve significantly, though. Not impossible, given his pedigree. He’s shown issues at the start in all three career runs, and that’s off-putting.
That brings me to God’s Widow. The clear question mark is the ground. His runs all came with significant juice in the ground. However, he may rather overcame the conditions, than that they are a ‘must’ for him.
His half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.
However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs to date and looked a highly promising colt.
He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.
Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.
I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.
The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.
The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit.
Drawn in #1, he can hopefully find a ground saving position behind the likely pace Capulet and possibly Jayarabe.
10pts win – God’s Widow @ 10/3
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