Tag Archives: United Kingdom

Monday Selections – 14/08/17

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4.45 Ayr: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Kentuckyconnection has won only once in fourteen attempts however showed promise when finally dropped to a more realistic mark the last two outings. He contested Group races earlier in his career and was fifth in the 2000 Guineas last season, a result that flattered him, as a consequence he had to race beyond his actual capabilities.

He can build on a strong runner-up performance at Newcastle in June, dropping in class while stepping up to 10f again. It’s his first realistic attempt over this distance and on pedigree looks possible. Cut in the ground, as long as it does not become bottomless, should be okay.

Graham Lee on board is in red hot form is a bonus. Kentuckyconnection has only to repeat his last two efforts to have a big say in the outcome of this race and as such is a big price.

Selection:
10pts win – Kentuckyconnection @ 11/1 Bet365

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7.10 Windsor: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Don’t Give Up looks rock solid and in this field very hard to beat. He’s lightly raced with a strong pedigree and won well on debut at Kempton’s All-Weather. He followed up with a strong Handicap debut when runner-up at Newmarket.

Stepping up in trip is sure to suit him and there is potentially plenty of improvement left in him-. Only one other 3yo to fear in the field, I expect Don’t Give Up to use his WFA allowance to full advantage.

Selection:
10pts win – Don’t Give Up @ 15/8 Bet365

Saturday Selections – 24th June 2017

1.35 Redcar: Novice Stakes, 6 furlongs

David O’Meara has generally a healthy record in these type of races. So Gabrial The Devil is interesting. Seemingly in need of the pipe opener at Chester a fortnight ago he should be sharper today dropping into an easier race as well. There is a bit of money arriving this morning, which looks a good sign.

His sire, albeit a small sample size, has a very fine record over this sort of trip and ground with offspring so I do expect improvement from Gabrial The Devil, which could see him go very close in an open contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Gabrial The Devil @ 16/1 bet365

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3.20 Newmarket: Class 4 Fillies’ Handicap, 1 mile

Top weight Fleeting Motion makes plenty of appeal in a weakish race. Ignore her last form at Newmarket in softish conditions which never suited and also came possibly too soon. She looked gutsy when landing a fair maiden at Doncaster and followed up with a nice 4th place in a good Conditions race at Ascot.

She came off a break that day and travelled like the winner just to get tired in the final furlong. A repeat of that performance should enough to be very competitive in this race.

Ground and trip will suit and a mark off 84 offers hope as there is potentially still a bit of improvement left in this daughter of Sepoy.

Selection: 
10pts win – Fleeting Motion @ 6/1 Coral

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3.40 Ascot: Hardwicke Stakes, Group 2 , 1m 4f

Dartmouth over 12f on fast ground? Possible, but not a 5/2 chance in a big and hot field like this. Most intriguing runner is Wings Of Desire for obvious reasons. Runner-up in the King George last year, hasn’t been seen since a subsequent off effort.

The solid horse who surely appreciates conditions and is very likely to be good enough and have trained on is Ballydoyle’s Idaho. This is his second start after a decent comeback run – this seems the ideal opportunity to land a top level prize.

He was 3rd in the Epsom Derby and close runner-up in the Irish Derby, subsequently scored in the Great Voltigeur Stakes last season. All rock solid form and as good as anything in this field.

I have slight concerns whether he’ll be ridden with too much patience but hope they are positive and use his stamina as otherwise he may get rolling too late. That worth a risk to take.

Selection:
10pts win – Idaho @ 9/2 Bet365

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4.40 Newmarket. Class 2 Handicap, 5 furlongs

Favourite Jumira Bridge could easily have too much on his plate in this race. He landed the odds as expected in a Brighton maiden when dropped to the minimum trip and followed up with a strong win at Sandown in a hot Cl2 Handicap.

Things did not go his way at the start yet he was authoritive eventually. When last seen in a Listed event at York he was clearly not suited by the softish conditions, however fast 5f today will likely see him to his best.

He looks still capable of better and both speed- and RP ratings back this up. It’s only his seventh run, the fourth over 5f, two of those he won – he’s a good thing today.

Selection:
10pts win – Jumira Bridge @ 13/8 Bet365

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9.05 Haydock: Class 5 Maiden, 1 mile

Race fit Najashee sets a good standard and will improve from his experience, however Godolphin’s Big Tour makes more appeal to me in a race that shapes as one between the two market leaders.

This expensive purchase is obviously well bred and should be reasonably talented judged on a fine debut run at Kempton last season. It’s fair to assume he is ready to go today with the yard having a strong record in maiden races this year and Bin Suroor enjoying a near 40% strike rate in Haydock maiden races over the years.

The step up to a mile will suit this Dubawi son quite a bit, so should be the decent ground. It’s a bit of a gamble sometimes on these type of Godolphin runners, however at 15/8 I feel there is a bit too much juice in the price.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Tour @ 15/8 Bet365

Agent Murphy’s the type to improve

Newbury

Buckhounds Stakes (Listed)

Godolphin’s Winter Thunder is expected to progress as a four year old from his all improving three year old campaign. He rounded up last season with an impressive Handicap success at Newmarket over 1m 4f. Though that form doesn’t work out at all. In 23 starts it hasn’t produced a single nto winner. Nonetheless this New Approach son is exciting and the one to beat potentially

His main danger is thought to be the lightly raced Agent Murphy. He was progressive last year, won in good style at Sandown, and followed up with two nice performances in defeat here at Ascot. He cried out for a step up in trip while still looking green when 2nd in July over 10f. Subsequently stepped up to 12f he didn’t quite get the run of the race when last seen but but stayed on nicely in third.

Fractical landed some lower grade races last season. It will be interesting to see if he can transfer this form to a new level now as four year old. Good older h handicapper Rawaki is a fair good measure stick in this race.

Red Galileo’s only win came on the All-Weather. He’s yet to get off the mark on turf in twelve starts. Farquhar was a shock winner of a a Newmarket Herritage Handicap. He may not be suited by the fast ground today.

Selection: Winter Thunder makes plenty of appeal on form and will clearly appreciate the conditions. But I take a chance on the bigger priced Agent Murphy, who appears to be a rather big price, given his profile.

He looks the type to improve as an older horse as it is often the case for Cape Cross offspring, as well as his dam sire’s Dansili. He hasn’t too many miles on the clock and could have still more to offer. He  proved in the past that he can make all when required. Which may be important in a race that could easily end in a tactical affair.

Agent Murphy @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts win

Special Miss Well In Off Feather Weight

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4.20 Brighton: Handicap (Class 3; 1m 2f)

This race looks wide open. You could make a case for each and every runner but could easily pick big holes into their form either. The betting is telling pretty much the same story with the favourite Puzzle Time being a 4/1 shot who usually shows her best with a bit of cut in the ground. Brighton is quick, though – however poses a demanding finish to the winning post.

Recent All-Weather scorer Lady Marl makes appeal on the visual impression she gave when running out a cosy victory at Lingfield. But that was against poor opposition. Much more is required here and a penalty has to be defied too. The step up in trip to 10f for the first time may bring out some further improvement, though.

Tears Of Sun would prefer it further normally, but she acts on quick ground and won at Brighton in the past. A fine runner-up effort at Bath last month gives her a good chance to be thereabouts here, but she doesn’t have any margin of error off her current mark. Same applies to Calm Attitude, who looks on a high enough mark. She may not be suited by the fast ground conditions either.

Likeable frontrunner Boonga Rogeeta was finally back in the winners enclosure when last seen. She held on gamely to win a 10f Handicap at Chelmsford, taking advantage of a slipping mark. She has to follow-up in this better race off 5lb higher now. Top weight Stosur might be the only one in this field who is rather easily discounted. She would need to improve quite a bit for her try over 1m 2f to be competitive of a very high looking mark.

Turf debutant Elbereth may strip fitter for her recent All-Weather outing. She doesn’t appear to be too well handicapped, but with emphasize on stamina in the finish, she could be in the mix here.

Authorized filly Special Miss has the benefit of a feather weight and that could help her to find back to her best. She was beaten in third in a five runner affair last month, that day a couple of lengths behind Tears Of Sun. However she received a very light ride and the jockey didn’t seem to be too bothered with her chance of finishing the race as close as possible. Expect her to be sharper here.

The trip is a bit a question mark. She stayed twelve furlongs in the past against poor rivals and has won over 9f, though in three start over 10f she never seemed to get home yet. However on pedigree she has every chance to get the trip, and with fast conditions to help, she may have found an ideal opportunity to win off a lowly 72 mark.

Special Miss @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Preview: Lingfield Feature

This is a really fascinating contest. The betting already reveals that the race is as open as it gets, with almost any of the seven runners in with a very fair chance. Current favourite Trojan Rocket has been nicely improving this winter and won two on the bounce. Can he overcome a new career highest mark? Ballista showed a return to form lately and can race off the same mark as when beaten only on the line the last time. Same applies to Mishaal who improved nicely on the All-Weather and was only beaten in a photo at Lingfield last time out. Quiet Warrior and Golden Amber aren’t out of the equation either. And let’s not make the mistake to rule out classy Chookie Royale, despite a significant drop n trip.

What makes this race particularly compelling from a tactical point of view is the fact that most runners are known to be right up with the pace, if not making all. It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out. On the deep Chelmsford polytrack this could easily end in a test of stamina, rather than end speed.

I feel that this may play into the hands of Chookie Royale who is a top class performer over seven furlongs. He’s the class act in this field, as a result has to give weight away and the drop in trip to 6f doesn’t look ideal at the first glance. But with the pace in mind and the fine form he showed lately, I think he could be ready to run a big race. Trainer Keith Dalgleish isn’t travelling 383 miles with his top performer to have a good night out. At the current odds, I think he is too big in the market and should be much closer towards the head of it.

8.10 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 6 furlongs:
Chookie Royale @ 13/2 Coral – 5pts win

Weekend!

Weekend!
It’s Weekend! Some great racing ahead. Several Graded races in the UK and Ireland. Ascot Chase on Saturday as the highlight of course, but there is also some great action at Gowran Park and Navan, plus some excellent All-Weather racing from Lingfield. Enjoy all the fantastic racing and good luck whatever you bet!