Chatty will have a huge chance if he can confirm his last two runs, now that he steps up to a mile. I struggle to catch runners of this yard at the right time, but hope he’s allowed to run on merit.
The 3-year-old gelding can be sluggish at the gate but also quite free. It may be inexperience but he need to start well and be a bit more more relaxed early on in order to get home over a mile.
He should have it in him on pedigree and also judged by the way he finished his last two runs. They were both eyecatching in no uncertain terms.
Awkward away at Redcar in Ma on his seasonal reappearance, he was short of room for a majority of the race but finished fastest under an easy hands and heels ride in the final furlong.
Off to a better start and right on the lead, he was part of a duo/trio that got a bit of a break on the field and he found plenty under pressure even in the final furlong.
He remains on the same mark and looks well-handicapped over a trip that should se him improve, if he settles, as well as for the experience. He’s ideally drawn to be prominent or on the lead once again.
10pts win – Chatty @ 7/2
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4.35 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Jungle Mac ran two incredibly well the last two times in slightly better races and should find this group of rivals a bit easier. He also has the potential draw advantage and could find himself having an easy enough day out at the front, especially if the race would develop toward the stands’ side.
Despite his speedy sire, there can’t be a question about his stamina for the trip. He finished with strong final sectionals the last two times, even when last see at Doncaster where he set a decent pace.
He rallied strongly that day and showed an equally lovely attitude earlier in May over this trip at the Rowley Mile. That day chasing the pace a couple of lengths off, he travelled well but also looked a little clueless how to handle the undulations of the track. He ran home very strongly and both of these last two forms look strong.
Overall Jungle Mac has a nicely progressive profile. He improved with each of his three runs on various metrics. A nice winner at Chelmsford in February. A fine third over 6 furlongs at Kempton. And then the last two big runs.
He improved with each of the last three runs on speed ratings as well: 74 at Newmarket, a career-best 77 last time out; with more improvement to come he looks capable of better still.
10pts win – Jungle Mac @ 7/2
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9.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Lilkian ran a few stormers lately and looks seriously well-handicapped here, with the addition of a good 5lb claimer on board as well.
He confirmed his strong form with a superb 2nd three weeks ago at Lingfield when he was caught wide throughout the race and still finished strongly.
That was a nice performance that confirmed the promise he showed in a bunch of runs earlier this year, including running to 61 and 62 speed ratings within his last three runs.
Still a turf maiden, he seems not as good on the grass as on sand. However, if you exclude his form on softish ground, he looks quite a capable runner. He’s also down to a career-lowest mark on turf.
Last season he ran three excellent races on decent ground, including being beaten only by a nose. He’s 4lb lower than his eyecatching third at Brighton in September, when last seen on turf.
Clearly he lost a bit of his early speed these days. But there won’t be a super hot pace here, most likely, so he should be capable of crossing over the stands’ side from the #3 drawn and get to a prominent position.
The fast ground looks perfect, and no rain in sight should stay like that. Lilkian looks to have found a prime chance to win his very first race on turf, although he’s on the drift the morning in the betting and that’s a concern.
That was a disappointing Sunday, especially as it was clear after two furlongs that both Elegant Man and Azada will struggle to make any impact in their respective races.
Elegant Man never looked happy on the gras. Whether it was just rain that went into the ground, or the surface itself, who knows. Azada was way too keen to have any chance of winning a competitive 1000 Guineas.
It was only her second career run, back off a break; she’ll learn and remains of interest, given she did travel well for quite a long time.
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3.45 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
The short priced favourite Hover on The Wind looks opposable given the much softer ground conditions today, albeit he acts on soft, his best performances came on decent ground, or at least, no less than good to soft in places.
A new career-best is required too. Not impossible, but it’s difficult to see where there’s any value in the price, with all possible improvement very much factored in.
At a much bigger price I’m quite keen on Parisiac, who caught my eye in his most recent run, back in March at Doncaster. That was a hot class 3 contest, so he takes a big drop in class today.
He was not up to the task against much classier opposition back then, but showed a nice attitude, not giving in, even when beaten, after pushing a hot pace early on.
Down to his last winning mark now, Parisiac should be ready for a big run. In his last two runs in 2023, he achieved 71 and 75 speed ratings, and if he can get back to that level of form he must rate a big chance today.
The ground is certainly in his favour, as two of his three career-bests on speed ratings have been achieved in the mud. The 5lb claim of Tommie Jakes is an added bonus today, especially as the apprentice is 3-1-1 when on board.
10pts win – Parisiac @ 8/1
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4.35 Redcar: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f
This looks an open race and I’ll take a chance on Stressfree, who will enjoy the soft ground and ran much better in all three starts this, including when well beaten the last two times.
On his seasonal reappearance he was an excellent runner-up behind Qitaal, who enjoyed the run of the race and was seriously well-handicapped on that day. I felt that performance warranted an upgrade.
Stressfree appeared to have disappointed the next two times. Though, from off the pace, it was always going to be a struggle at Ripon, and he made some decent progress while not enjoying the clearest of passages, with the winner in the different world, anyway.
The ground was never to suit when last seen at York. Nonetheless, once again, he travelled well enough and made some good progress before running out of steam and possibly being saved for another day.
Not sure he’s up to this class today, but off 85, with the visor on for the first time, and a good draw close to the pace, he could get an ideal race, on the ground he loves.
Showboated caught the for different reasons in each of his three runs this year and off bottom weight could play a bigger part than the betting may wants give him this morning.
He meets Pinpoint again, the one horse he finished behind three weeks ago at Ayr. That was a career-best performance on every measure, including speed ratings.
Dropped He was always travelling on the outside, right up with the pace, without cover, quite keenly. The winner was following closely, but always nicely covered up. That made the difference on the day.
He dropped to the minimum trip and responded well to that, showing good early speed, for all that he can be a bit awkward out the gates, and and kept on once under pressure with a good attitude.
On his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle in March Showboated entered the notebook for the first time. Not quite the best of starts, he was keen subsequently, travelled well enough and showed a good attitude to finish his race.
He never landed a blow over 7f next time. But that trip was too far, he was overly keen, and also interfered halfway through the race.
A sprint over 5 furlongs with plenty of pace could be exactly what this gelding needs. Fast ground is a question, but the pace scenario should help him and he’s drawn right beside one of the likely front-runners too.
Obviously he moves up up in class, meets some higher rated rivals today. Although, this 0-62 looks a particularly poor contest for this class. Off 8-8 he looks a tasty price, who can, at the very least, outrun his price.
If Redcar makes it as far the third race on their card today, then I’d be really keen on High Opinion to outrun his price tag.
The gelding was fancied all season but hasn’t quite delivered the goods. He caught the eye on a number of occasions, though, striking me as somewhat unfortunate to remain on a single career-win.
Clearly, judged on speed ratings he must be given a more than fair chance to change the current state today: now down to a 57 handicap mark, with the assistance of solid 3lb claiming Andrew Breslin in the saddle.
He ran 54+ speed ratings four times this year, and arguably his best performance at Ripon (56) came in a hot race where he was desperately unlucky not get a good deal closer – if only for a clear run.
The subsequent performances were a good deal better than they may appear on paper. High Opinion confirmed his wellbeing and was possibly just looking for a bit of help from the handicapper, a slightly easier race and a flat straight five with cut in the ground.
The 4-year-old is 1/14 throughout his career, hence one who often finds trouble. Today could be an ideal opportunity, though. His career-best runs came over 5 furlongs and deep ground.
He’s right drawn beside the likely pace, so in an ideal world, unless he badly misses the start, should get a nice lead into the final part of the race.
A possible negative is if they don’t go a solid gallop. High Opinion has tendencies to pull and a possible pace scenario leaves space for a somewhat slowly run race.
I highly rate the dangers of Northcliff, who despite his 0/19 record could have a class edge here, as well as Rajmeister who enjoys these conditions and won off the same mark earlier this year.
If High Opinion would be the one of the shorter prices he was in most his runs this season I’d probably give it a miss today. He’s not a winner, finds trouble, and may end up pulling his chances away. However, he’s simply a superb price, that compensates more than enough for those negatives, because he’s clearly handicapped to win, if all goes well.
I have been waiting for The Muffin Man to step up to a mile and he finally does it here, in a seriously poor race, that doesn’t take much for winning it.
The 3-year-old gelding showed some promise this season already, despite an 0/9 record. I wouldn’t give him any more chances, though. This should be his day to shine.
He drops down to a 49 handicap mark, 9 and 7 lb respectively lower than two eye-catching efforts back in May and June. Also his last run was better than the bare result suggested, given there were some solidly handicapped runners in the race, very much so the eventual winner.
He looked a bit sharper early on in the cheek pieces, although, maybe a bit too sharp for his own good. They are off today. The #5 draw is a positive, as long as he isn’t slowly away and gets too far behind as a consequence.
That may happen and seal his fate early on. But he was away well enough when last seen, so here’s hoping. Ben Sanderson claims valuable 3lb – with that in mind, if allowed to run on merit the gelding should be seriously well-handicapped now.
10pts win – The Muffin Man @ 12.5/1
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6.07 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
A hugely frustrating and inconsistent sort, Glorious Rio is one not to trust. However, he showed signs of life multiple times this year, and now returns on turf to the minimum trip, on ground that hopefully doesn’t get too soft.
He pulled hard at Newcastle last time over 6 furlongs but ran well in the circumstances, as he’s done a number of times when somewhat unfortunate not getting the best of runs.
He dropped to a seriously dangerous mark now, down to 60; Glorious Rio won 4 times of similar or higher ratings on multiple surfaces and ground conditions, mostly over the minimum trip and also off big weights.
The #11 could be ideal, as it should lead him nicely into the finish, following those that are setting pace against the stands’ side.
Slight concerns over the weather forecast: I hope it’s only going to be one or two small showers, and no more. I don’t think he wants it proper soft conditions.
His very best came on fast ground. Although, he won on good to soft last summer. So the way it should ride given the current forecast will be fine.
10pts win – Glorious Rio @15/2
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8.07 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
The drop in trip in combination with a drop in class will really suit He’s a Gentleman who didn’t get home the last two times over a mile. He ran with plenty of credit, nonetheless, especially last time out when only beaten late.
He can race off the same mark here, which gives him the opportunity to run in this 0-70 contest where he should find life a little bit easier than most of the time this year so far.
The recent run is a clear return to form, suggesting he’s not far off the excellent form he showed last year when also running to speed ratings in the 70s.
If he can follow-up, with the pace scenario possibly suiting him too, he could prove a step above the rest in this field.
2-2-3-3-4-5-14. That’s how my selections finished. What a disaster of a day Friday was.
Although, Remarquee came rather close to winning at 33s, but ultimately, I don’t think the slight interference made a significant difference, being totally honest.
To make matters worse, Coppice won the Sandringham (one of my horses to follow but didn’t back here) and Alseeyerthere won the Redcar race – a huge eyecatcher last time out, but I decided to go with ungenuine Fiftyshadesofred at a poor price.
The margins of error are small in this game. Sometimes it’s down to luck, sometimes down to poor decision making. Poor decisions eats profit, though. Always.
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3.05 Ascot: Group 3 Jersey Stakes, 7f
Enfajaar is one of my horses to follow this season and he showed nothing but an abundance of talent on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month.
He was a little bit keen early on, but then travelled strongly and kicked clear in the most impressive fashion in the final furlong.
The drop in trip is a slight question mark, because he may also stay a bit further than a mile. But this lad isn’t short of speed, at all. He can accelerate rapidly.
The stiff 7 furlongs at Ascot, with a good pace to chase, having likely front-running Covey drawn close by, could be a perfect scenario.
One only has to watch back his impressive debut performance at Newmarket last year over 7 furlongs, where he accelerated in impressive style from 3 furlongs out and stayed strongly to the line.
There is no doubt he’s pattern class, I believe. The only serious question mark I have is the fast ground. His two wins came on good to soft and on the All-Weather, he seems to hit the ground hard as well. If he acts on this surface, he should be the one to beat.
10pts win – Enfajaar @ 8/1
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5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Khanjar can run off his old 97 mark here before it goes up soon. He is a somewhat tricky sort and new headgear must make a difference to help him with sharpness.
However, if that does help, he’s one who could be underestimated here, still. He looks to have a huge engine and the potential to improve again.
His form can be a bit hit and miss and difficult to read. He ran better at York on his seasonal debut than the bare result. And even better next time at Hamilton.
There he was slowly away and right away at a disadvantage, multiplied by his draw and racing wide, hence away from the usually more favoured stands’ side.
He made great progress but ultimately had too much to do. Nonetheless, he ran four (+ equal in one) of six furlongs faster than the eventual winner, and was arguably unlucky.
I think it’s fair to say he has been a bit unfortunate in some of the bigger Handicaps he contest to date. Clearly there’s untapped potential. Whether it can be ever realised remains to be seen.
In any case he’s a strong, galloping sort who stays well over 6 furlongs and he should relish the stiff finish here at Ascot. The pace map looks somewhat puzzling, so there is a chance he’s not in the right spot.
10pts win – Khanjar @ 10/1
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3.52 Newmarket: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground.
However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well.
I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile:
He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn’t enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail.
I hope from the #1 draw he’ll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly.
Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.
10pts win – Vecchio @ 9/2
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4.14 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Wide open and competitive. Where’s the pace to come from? Probably more toward the far rail and high numbers. That is a positive as it brings Huddle Up right into the equation.
He showed excellent form in all starts this year and looked like he could be a bit better than his current 73 rating in the right race.
He was found out for speed and/or class over the minimum trip the last to times, although ran on with plenty of zest.
A flattish, uncomplicated 6f on decent but not fast ground looks possibly ideal, and even more so as he drops down in class again. Even though this competitive, it’s easier than the last two races.
He also produced a huge effort on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk, where he achieved a 72 speed rating as well. It’s fair to assume, now fully fit, track, trip and ground possibly to suit, he can improve back to the level he showed in Ireland before.
10pts win – Huddle Up @ 13/2
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5.13 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Huge chance for Shine’s Ambition to win a race. This is a poor race, and his most recent effort at this track, albeit over an additional furlong, was huge.
The form looks good with the second having won well in the meantime. The drop to 6 furlongs seems sure to suit and he looks to have the ideal draw to grab that far rail.
Last time over 7 furlongs he enjoyed a quick start, led from the front as part of duo and travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. He was beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden, but he ran twice 62+ speed ratings in the past and now down to a 62 mark with the drop to 6f he’s really interesting off a career-lowest mark.
10pts win – Shine’s Ambition @ 11/2
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8.50 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
How far is Essme going to win this? I guess it depends how she got out of bed. The mare is hardly the most trustworthy horse to back.
In saying that, if she can run to the level of form shown last time over this course and distance she’s likely to win this. That was a strong performance, the runner-up won in the meantime, and this time she has a better draw.
Three weeks ago she tracked the pace on the far side, was quite prominently ridden. She travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages.
She did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD, and also represented a career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground is ideal, which she finds here.
Waipiro delivered the goods. He won with so much in hand – I was hopeful he’d be too good for this field with a clear run, but this performance was a surprise, especially given the way the race panned out.
He definitely did it the hard way. It didn’t look like it would happen for a long time. A bad bump by a rival soon after the start, lit up, far off the pace, didn’t seem to travel well, the gap wasn’t opening…. until it magically did and whoosh off he was, never to be seen again by his rivals.
Let’s not forget what a huge eyecatcher he was in the Derby, and also how well he ran twice earlier this season. A drop to 10 furlongs, with a good pace… he was always to go close if he could get a run.
Not unhappy with Physique. He was right there for a long time. He faded in the final furlong, but that’s okay. It was a run for the money and a big price.
Good week overall; yet, longing for a “normal” winner in some random class 5 or 6 Handicap as well. Tomorrow?
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4.20 Ascot: Coronation Stakes, 1m
It’s hard, if not even impossible to oppose Tahiyra after her sensation performance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she quickened away like a true superstar.
That performance wasn’t quite as strong on speed figures as it was visually, but the Dermot Weld trained filly produced a career-best and excellent 104 speed rating at Newmarket in the British equivalent last month.
She’s clearly extremely talented, at the same time possibly vulnerable given this is her third Group 1 in the space of six weeks on the quickest ground she has ever encountered.
Dermot Weld was on the record saying prior to the 1000 Guineas that he felt the filly could have done with an additional two weeks of preparation. Has she been rushed to run twice in this short space of time?
There are dangers here, also from a tactical point of view. On the round course it can be an advantage to make all or be certainly close to the pace. You would think Mediate could be in a prime spot when turning for home. Runner-up at the Curragh, this race could be run to suit her perfectly.
That says, bar Meditate, there is little opposition likely good enough to match a Tahiyra, even if not quite at her peak. Unless one of the other fillies in the race can step up significantly.
The one I would have hopes to improve significantly with experience is Remarquee. She was a huge disappointment at Newmarket, where she didn’t seem happy at any stage and found zero once under pressure.
But I can’t shake off the huge impressions she gave in her first two career runs, once on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
She looked raw and green on both occasions. The speed figures weren’t strong, but her finishing speed screams talent. The better ground is intriguing. Even though her two wins came on soft, I have the feeling decent ground can bring out more improvement.
Prior to the Guineas Ralph Beckett was quite hopeful that he would have a potential star filly on his hands. There is still the potential for her to turn out and become a proper Group 1 filly.
Whether the race is going to be run to suit remains to be seen. Nonetheless, at the given prices she’s worth a shot at this.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 33/1
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5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
Coppice is an intriguing filly, and one from my horses to follow list this season. There’s every chance she’s well handicapped off 97 after her successful return to form in a Novice Stakes where she made amends for a disappointing defeat in the Nell Gwyn.
She hasn’t achieved any speed rating of note yet, and I’m not yet convinced that she truly gets a mile when the pace is on.
This test in a large field and with a stiff finish doesn’t strike me as the right one, especially as she can be slowly away as well. She’s certainly too short to back.
The pace side should be the stands’ side, with high numbers likely to dominate. That brings a filly into play that caught the eye earlier this month at Kempton.
Marksman Queen finished seriously well in a Handicap there over a mile, nearly overcoming a sluggish start as she travelled well off the pace was held together until about 2f out before showing a strong response when asked for an effort to come home much the best.
She couldn’t quite get back to the 4-year-old winner, who ran well for a long time in the Kensington Palace earlier this week.
She wasn’t slowly away in any of her two starts prior, hence I hope it was just ‘one of those days’. A poor start would severely compromise her chances in this competitive field.
But if she gets way well, then she could be very well handicapped, off 86, only 2lb higher than at Kempton. She won well at Southwell on her seasonal reappearance as well.
I reckon that perhaps the hood took off some of her early excitement at Kempton. She was keen in her previous races. Hopefully she is better used to it now.
Given her breeding Marksman Queen may have options to move up in trip, but a strongly run mile looks ideal for now. She should also improve for switching to turf on fast ground.
10pts win – Marksman Queen @ 15/1
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5.35 Ascot: Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f
King Of Steel ran a massive race in the Derby on his seasonal reappearance and a return to that level of form will see him certainly with a prime chance. Can he repeat such a tremendous run?
Different track, different pace scenario, stiff finish. And he got the splits when needed, having enjoyed the near perfect race. He was clearly beaten by a brilliant horse on the day, and the same opposition isn’t present here.
But taking into account that this is going to be a totally different type of race, one can question his odds-on price tag. Also, I am not sold that he would stay a properly run 12 furlongs, especially with a stiff finish.
Also: on speed ratings he ran to a fine treble digit figure of 100. But the Aiden O’Brien trained Continuous achieve a 99 speed figure at York in the Dante over a trip possibly slightly short of his optimum when he also needed the run, most likely.
Continuous is one my horses to follow this year and I can forgive him that poor French Derby run. He didn’t have any real excuses, other than that it was a competitive renewal. So wellbeing is taken with some question marks attached.
Ryan Moore remains quite positive whenever he speaks about Continuous, so that’s certainly noteworthy. There should be more to come, given he didn’t have an ideal spring preparation, and strikes me as a relentless galloper who should enjoy Ascot.
The other one I do like is Artistic Star. I liked him for the Derby, and even though things didn’t work out on the day or him, the inexperienced colt showed great promise in the second half of his race.
After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
I’ll split my stake here: I really only can see three horses to win. Those are the aforementioned. Because Arrest over 12 furlongs, fast ground, stiff finish, looks not the test to suit him.
Fiftyshadesofred was rather unfortunate the other day at Catterick when he missed the start somewhat, as he can do, got behind and stuck on the inside rail and found himself badly short of room at a crucial stage over 3 furlongs out.
He ran pretty well in the circumstances and confirmed the excellent performance shown weeks earlier at Ayr.
That day he overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. He found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.
Before that he didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks his trip, and the fact he ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives his form credibility.
Another pound down, he looks seriously well-handicapped off 64, as he ran to a 65 speed rating at Ayr, in line with another 64 at Chelmsford in April.
This straight track may suit him better than sharp turning tracks. The field is competitive but with the 5lb claim of Connor Planas he should have too much in hand.
10pts win – Fiftyshadesofred @ 4/1
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5.16 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
A race for maidens. Some of the higher rated horses make appeal as this is easier for them. But I’m intrigued by Lola’s Moment, who knocked on the door a few times before and ran a huge race last time at Wetherby.
She was slightly sluggish away but quickly found her stride and moved forward to track a hard pace. Eventually she took up the lead from the 2 furlongs marker until she got heavily challenged from over one furlong out.
She briefly accepted the challenge before she ran out of gas and faded away.
This was her comeback run after a break since September 2022. The filly looks potentially exposed but may be capable of progressing as a 3yo. Sprint trips look her game.
She’s a full-sister to recent 5.5f winner Alfred Cove (OR57). As she now drops to a similar rating she may be underestimated over a fast five with a good draw that she has got here.
10pts win – Lola’s Moment @ 10/1
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7.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
I firmly believe this is Latin Five’s for the taking. He is in excellent form, as evidence by his last two runs. Especially last time out at Nottingham he ran to a level of form that should see him hard to beat here if he can repeat.
He travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by a horse on the stands’ side.
The acceleration mid-race was quite something, for this level. He also achieved a 53 speed rating. He ran to 51 and 54 this season as well, so that 1lb hike doesn’t make too much of a difference.
He’s certainly well handicapped on last-years form. Now clearly back in form he’s the one to beat with a good draw to attack from as well.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous eyecatchers here.
Lil Guff 22/05/23 – 5.00 Windsor:
Settled in rear against the inside rail, before gradually moving over to the other side, travelling well, but not getting a run through over one furlong out, when she tried to progress on the widest outside, with a shifting rival not helping to get clear passage there either.
Finished a fine 3rd. Fast ground, minimum trip not ideal. All best career performances over 6 furlongs, and enjoys less lively ground too. Down to a good mark, won off 76 and 82 last summer.
A 76 speed rating here and 79 speed rating in April suggest she’s in the same form now. Ideally want to see her up in trip, though.
Travelled really well in his group. Fine progress from halfway through and won his group comfortably. Couldn’t catch the winner who travelled alone on the far side.
Ran the best finishing speed. Clearly in good form and on solid mark off 80 having ran to 80 and 83 speed rating last year. Better over 6f on fast ground. Didn’t have that yet this year.
Set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he’s getting swamped late. Should be good form.
Down to fine mark. In good form. Best with ease in the ground, hence this run warrants an upgrade, but is competitive on fast too, and continues to drop a seriously intriguing mark in any case.
Sluggish start, recovered and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. Found plenty under pressure and only late beaten by two from off the pace.
Good speed rating, which is believable. Ran to near similar speed rating a month earlier on the All-Weather. Definitely in good form but has issues and the hood didn’t seem to help. Would stay a mile if he could settle.
Jury is out how much he’s got in hand these days, but worth another try over 7 furlongs as he has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for this fine effort.
Pushed a hot pace from the front as part of a duo. Kept fighting well to the line under pressure and nearly held on fending off all challengers bar the winner who came from off the pace.
Huge run. 1st tongue tie, responded well here as well for the decent ground. Deserves a chance in these circumstances again. Won off 73 last autumn in fine style and achieved 77 speed rating.
Was disappointing next time. However was a drifter on the day in the betting, never seemed to travel too well and maybe just doesn’t like ground that fast.
Caught seriously wide from #14 draw. Did a lot to cross over and get into a position where she tracked the hot pace. Some progress in the home straight before getting tired and also hampered 1f out.
Ran better than bare form lto on Handicap debut as well. Not ridden with intend to obtain best result last two times. The game is in the name…. down to 50 now interesting, if handbrake is off, especially with any support in the betting.
Travelled like a dream in midfield, well covered. Came through strongly, hard on the bridle, going through a gap over 2 furlongs out. Was eventually outkicked and not had the speed to go with the winner but ran on well.
Has the pedigree to improve beyond six furlongs. Will be of serious interest up in trip if she can settle. Has won and ran well over sprint trips already. The way she travelles suggests there’s talent better than a 78 OR.
Forced to settle off the pace the way the race developed. Was going well but had to wait for room as no gap opened late. Finished best in the final furlong.
Clear return to form after some lesser efforts on the All-Weather. Did well on the sand during winter, though. Down to sexy mark and not out of it on turf either, despite 0/5 record. Never expected in those runs but clearly handles fast ground.
Quickly restraint in rear of the field against the inside rail. Was going pretty well but progress stopped as he was stuck behind a wall of horses, short of room and hampered from two furlongs until late before in the clear inside the final furlong and finished nicely.
Only slowly drops in the mark. Effective over a variety of sprint trips and acts on nearly all ground. Not tremendously well-handicapped but placed off higher and may not be far off a big run if allowed to run on merit.
Swerved to his left out of the gate then settled in midfield. Travelled strongly on the bridle over 2f out behind horses but had to wait for room and switch to the inside for a run. Finished best.
Started the first two furlongs & finished the final furlong faster than the the first two home (fastest final furlong). May not truly stay 1m and would ideally drop to 7f. Lightly raced, good speed rating here as well.
Tracked the pace against the inside rail for most of the race until the two groups merged. He found himself shot of room multiple times and only late was able to get properly into the clear to finish strongly.
Strong form. Ran to 80 speed rating. Seemed to enjoy the decent ground and has responded for blinkers the last two. Showed promise as a juvenile. Clearly better than what he has shown up to now.
If he’s kept in handicap company he’ll be well-handicapped. Move up in trip is certainly preferable.
Travelled in midfield, not going smoothly, niggled along, possibly found the pace over 7f on fastish ground too hot. Kept going well, though. Not clear run over 2f out and slightly hampered over 1f out.
Handicap debut and should be better than this. Decent speed rating. Should move up in trip again and dangerous off 87 on decent ground.
His chances were compromised from the wide draw. He didn’t get in to find cover and as a consequence always travelled three wide, mostly without cover, off the pace. Travelled well and made good progress from over 3f out before getting tired in the final furlong.
May not quite stay a mile. 7f most likely ideal. Impressive win as a juvenile. High enough mark but deserves chance over 7f. He usually can go forward. Deserves chance in easier race.
Huge disadvantage the low draw that day. In rear early on, before excellent progress from three furlong out on the far side. Did well to run so well for so long.
Better over 6f, ideally with decent to fast ground. One who needs things to fall right but ran solid last season still and could be underestimated in the right race.
Widest draw away from the inside rail huge disadvantage. Bumped after the start. Was going okay but short of room over 2f out. Disaster run. Ran on well prior on his handicap debut as well.
Could be better than this. May prefer ease in the ground and/or could enjoy an additional furlong as he doesn’t seem to have the speed for fast 6f. Down to 72 intriguing.
Off to a good start, tracked pace keenly early on. Travelled well enough before he became a bit flat footed over 2 furlongs out as the sedate pace increased. Lost ground but stamina kicked in and he flew home the final furlong.
Could enjoy moving up in trip if the pace is solid. Smart prospect and may be underestimated because his profile isn’t that sexy, especially after his Dubai flop.
Flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. Gradually tired but was game to the line.
Bumped into a well-handicapped one on seasonal reappearance lto. Can get home but more often than not 7f is a stretch, probably best over 6f. down to solid mark and clearly in form a pound below his last winning mark.
Moved quickly forward from wider than ideal draw and travelled very wide before moving across to lead. Was going well for long and showed good attitude late as well.
Best over 5f. Down to intriguing mark. Ran well over minimum trip on fast ground last year. Didn’t get the best of luck on the AW lately but finished well, especially last time at Southwell.
Quick start, led from the front as part of duo. Travelled strongly approaching 2f out before he came under severe pressure. beaten by winner from off the pace.
Still a maiden but ran twice 62+ speed ratings. may not stay 7f unless gifted a soft lead. drop to 6f really interesting off career-lowest mark.
Set off very fast, going sprinter pace the first few furlongs, as part of a duo. Kept going well, still ahead 1f out, swamped late. huge run and return to form. down to sexy mark, judged on last season.
Should be strong form. Winner was well-handicapped. Would be most interesting for drop to 7f, even though he stays further, a mile with little pace competition could also be interesting.
Right up with the pace, lead early then chased it. Seemingly going backwards from 2f out but kept on well. Bumped slightly over 1f out and squeezed. Hot race and strong form most likely.
Should find an easier one and can win and may improve with experience still. May also be able to drop to 6f.
Set strong pace from the front. Had the field on the stretch halfway out. Kicked clear and only late beaten by very well-handicapped horse.
May go up a couple of pounds but ran 66 speed rating here and 67 in the past. Clearly best on decent ground, and could go well in the right race of revised mark still in right conditions.
Bumped at the start, settled in rear, made some good progress travelling well from over 3f out on the outside of the field. Impeded 2f out, ran home solid enough.
Looks a big horse. May needed the run still. Still lightly raced, handicap debut and worth to watch out for over 7f-1m on decent ground. Full-sister achieved nothing, so not too many chances given.
Dwelt, keen in rear, seemed difficult to steer and went very wide. great progress and finished second on the line despite jockey tried to pull up early.
Dropped another couple of pounds in the meantime. Run better last few runs than bare form. Still a maiden but could cherry ripe potentially. Entry next week at Haydock intriguing.
Dwelt from wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was going well and seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Career best speed rating. clearly back in form. Not on to trust to follow-up, but worth to check if he drops to 7f again as the additional half furlong may have been a bit too far here.
Tracked the pace on far side, quite prominently ridden. Travelled well to 2f out but couldn’t quite keep up the effort in the closing stages. Did best of those low drawn, which is often a disadvantage over this CD.
Career-best on speed ratings, as low as that is. 7f on fast ground ideal and interesting in a similarly poor race when she has a good draw.
Dwelt and awkward out of the gate. Settled in midfield, bumped into rival before the first turn. Made progress and found a route through to challenge, though the winner was long gone. Ran on well.
Confirmed lto promise. Down to fine mark. Best on decent ground (ideally no worse than yielding), so could be intriguing on a more conventional track if the dry spell continues. However, can have issues at the gate.
Travelled seriously well on the far side, covered up behind the pace. Pulled out over 2f out and kicked on well to lead, before late beaten by horse on the stands’ side.
Well handicapped on last-years form. Clearly back in form as he showed some promise at Catterick prior too.
He enjoys decent ground and should remain dangerous even with a small hike in the ratings.
A finish dominated by those ridden with restraint. Which was somewhat surprising, because they didn’t go too hard in the first half of the race, with a finishing speed of 116% for the winner, Auguste Rodin (the par for the Derby distance at Epsom is around 111%) not quite telling the tale, perhaps.
King Of Steel raced the closest to the pace from those who made any impact in the closing stages. He travelled pretty well in midfield and kicked on strongly from over 3f out, before being outstayed in the final furlong by the Aiden O’Brien trained colt.
White Birch came from very far back and made great progress on the outside in the home straight. He’s an obvious eyecatcher in that sense. However, there a couple of others who interest me more for the future.
Sprewell is probably the one who left the biggest impression on me. I was certainly not overly keen on him beforehand, but he certainly confirmed his huge talent in the Derby.
It was his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still a bit keen and perhaps green at various stages of the race, hence the fact he finished so well in 4th, without ever appearing with a shot of winning, truth told, is noteworthy.
He found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out, though. Subsequently he got badly unbalanced, yet found his momentum quickly again and ran on before his stamina ran out in the final furlong.
Fast ground clearly wasn’t an issue. But the Derby trip may stretch his stamina, especially in a properly run race. However, he has shown his class over 10 furlongs already. That looks his trip. He’s one I’ll track.
Waipiro endured a disaster run. he dwelt, was then caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around wide for a run.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out. He probably didn’t get the trip. Though, I thought the confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket and at Lingfield.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated if he drops down to 10 furlongs, though.
Artistic Star ran a race of two halves, so to speak. Initially I was disappointed with his run. I backed him, and thought he would do much better than a 11 lengths beaten 7th place.
However, he ran a race full of promise. After a solid start he didn’t travel well, niggled at various stages. Perhaps inexperience in such a big, tight field was to blame.
Three furlongs from home he was relegated to last even, before the penny seemed to drop and he motored home in the 4rd fastest final 3f split to pass many tired horses.
He’ll have learned plenty and remains at this stage an exciting prospect after two excellent career performances prior where he ran strong speed ratings for an inexperienced horse.
Whether he’s Group 1 class remains to be seen. His siblings were smart horses but not quite top-notchers. He looks to stay the Derby distance, much like they did, though.
Spartan Fighter returns to turf off a 10lb lower mark than his current All-Weather rating. He ran with plenty of credit on the sand in recent weeks and is potent on turf as well, so he could be quite well-handicapped today.
He drops to 6 furlongs as well, which is more his trip than when last seen over 7f at Wolverhampton. There he also had to overcome the widest draw and did a lot to get to the front. It was no surprise to see him fading from 2f out.
There’s no doubt he outran his odds more often than not in his last handful or so runs. He caught the eye in no uncertain terms at Newcastle in March when 4th in a hot race. He travelled pretty well, made good progress on the outside and only dropped away late in the day.
He wasn’t as good next time, but it was a strange run, and looked back to decent form in the aforementioned Wolverhampton race.
He also drops in class today and looks seriously dangerous on ground and trip to suit. The 5lb claim of his rider should be useful as well. Obviously he didn’t have many opportunities on grass in the last twelve month, and there is a question as to why that’s the case.
Though, past turf speed ratings give him a huge chance here off his 56 rating in this contest.
10pts win – Spartan Fighter @ 6/1
……….
6.45 Tipperary: Handicap, 5f
Lokada was a strong runner-up at Naas behind Harry’s Hill three weeks ago. She meets this rival, who was seriously well-handicapped then, on better terms today and also may not have to fight the draw bias as was the case at Naas.
That day she was prominent on the far side, while Harry’s Hill enjoyed the advantage of racing against the stands’ side. She travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran on strongly up the hill to get up late for 2nd place to win his group.
He’s 2lb higher today, which is a fair hike by Irish standards. She also ran to 70 speed rating at Naas and an impressive 81 on the AW last year.
The Naas form should be strong and there’s every chance the relatively lightly filly can continue to progress, as her last two runs can be upgraded – Naas, as mentioned, but also her run prior at Dundalk warranted an upgrade.
10pts win – Lokada @ 7/2
……..
8.10 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Nogo’s Dream drops in class and should find this much easier than the last two times at Newmarket and Ascot. The fast ground is a slight question mark, but you would hope he acts on it.
In any case he looks a progressive sort. He won a maiden over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton in March and caught the eye the next time at Newmarket.
He travelled strongly, made smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but got badly tired eventually.
Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. And the same could be possibly said the last time at Ascot. In deep ground 6f maybe stretched him a little it too much.
This race is easier. 6f on decent ground should help. He looks underestimated off his 77 handicap mark as the handicapper raised him only by a single pound for those last two strong efforts.
No joy on the betting front on Saturday. Can’t fault the effort of any horse I backed. They all ran well, ultimately didn’t quite have the good fortune when needed in their races. Happens.
Regardless of the outcome of the Irish 2000 Guineas from a betting perspective, I still loved the day out at the Curragh on Saturday. My dad was with me, he’s over from Germany for a few days.
He’s no racing fan, but enjoyed it as well, and was certainly delighted to collect a few €€€ from his Each-Way punt on Hi Royal.
The Curragh can be a miserable place when the wind sweeds through it. On the other hand when the sun is out it can be a place of pure magic, as it was on Saturday.
Lovely vibe, happy people, great racing…. and a pint of Guineas for €5.90 is nearly a bargain these days. Do those in charge finally get the hang of things?
The Curragh is a lovely place to shoot racing as well. It’s one of the joys of Irish racing if your a photographer you get unparalleled access to the equine stars. Compare that to the UK where they take your camera away at the entrance….
Two other things I can’t leave unmentioned: The Grade 1 Daily News 2000 took place in South Africa on Saturday. My selection Cousin Casey got a bit of a rough race. I was left wondering “what if”.
Closer to the truth is, possibly, that brilliant winner See It Again was too strong in any case. He won it extremely well, no matter what. “Striker” once again pure class in the saddle. The 3-year-old will shoot to the top of the betting for the Durban July now.
The German 2000 Guineas takes place at Cologne this afternoon. This appears to be a poor edition. Two English raiders head the market and it’s fair to say they wouldn’t have the faintest of hopes to land a Group 1 in the UK or Ireland.
Sadly, the home team isn’t particularly strong. It’s stamina that German bred horses are known for, so this isn’t the biggest surprise. Nonetheless, if British 96 and 92 rated colts are expected to fight this out it’s simply not a good look.
………..
5.40 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 10f
Bollin Margaret looks a rock solid favourite having a good record over 10f on fast ground, having slipped to a good mark and having ran to a fine speed rating recently.
At the same time in over 1.5 years she never achieved a 60+ speed rating, and that makes her still somewhat vulnerable to something else in this field.
In truth, there’s not much in this field. But Streetscape is the lightly raced improver who could have too much to offer on his third handicap run, back on turf and most likely ideal fast ground.
He caught the eye last two times, his only runs in 2023, on the All-Weather, back in March.
On Handicap debut and his seasonal debut at Newcastle I liked the way he travelled when tracking the pace, as he made a nice move to challenged leaders to eventually hit the front soon after. he was gutsy all the way to the line but beaten by a winner and second from rear of the field who possessed a stronger turn of foot.
The next time at Southwell the slow pace didn’t suit him either. He as badly outpaced from three furlongs out but once again showed a superb attitude when he battled back to grab third on the line.
It may be that his optimum is a fast mile on a stiff track. However, on pedigree 10 furlongs seem a pretty realistic option. The way he finished his last two races gives plenty of hope, that’s for sure.
How much he has in hand remains to be seen. As he drops in grade as well, into 0-60, of his 59 mark, in these conditions, he should be a solid W ahead of the handicapper, I feel.
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