I have some sort of “love/hate” relationship with Chester – certainly from a betting perspective. I rarely get it right. On the other hand I do love the visual spectacle of the ever turning track. It makes for exciting viewing.
As for finding winners, as rare as it is, if they come, they’re more often than not trained by Aiden O’Brien. At this Chester May Festival you can pretty much blindly back his horses in the Group contests and you’d turn a profit – at least that was the case in the past.
Aiden O’Brien has won five of the last ten runnings of the Cheshire Oaks as well – can he do it again?
Certainly this years renewal looks competitive on paper. A couple of exciting- and race-fit fillies for John Gosden as well as the unbeaten Ralph Beckett trained Manuela De Vega make thinks interesting. Aiden O’Brien, though, throws only one dart at this race, and that’s usually a good sign.
There’s little secret about Secret Thoughts. The War Front daughter was a classy juvenile but was always sure to improve with age and when upped in trip. A good seasonal reappearance in the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown over 7f should have put her right for Chester.
Under a sympathetic hands and heels ride she finished a decent 5th in a hot race that looks already incredibly strong form, judged through the winner Lady Kaya and the runner-up Happen.
Now stepping up dramatically in distance to 1m3½ furlongs, Secret Thoughts can improve again. The first foal we see on the racetrack of the wonderful former Irish Oaks winner Chicquita, the question won’t be so much about stamina, but more about whether she can settle, handles the track and will be able to show her best on soft ground.
There is plenty of rain on its way according to the weather forecast. I assume Secret Thoughts would prefer a sound surface. However, she has shown to act with cut in the ground as well. So that is encouraging. Possibly the fact she had enough speed to be competitive in 7 furlongs contests will be an advantage here as well, as she is wider drawn than it is ideal. Using early speed to move close to the pace is an advantage at Chester.
I’m slightly surprised by the odds on offer for Secret Thoughts. Given her trainers strong record and her excellent form, which is by far the strongest on offer in this field, odds around 7/2 appear overly generous – with or without rain.
There is little in this field to shout about. Therefore handicap debutant is appealing of bottom weight. The colt had three runs over a mile or slightly further in order to qualify for a handicap mark.
After a third run, incidentally his seasonal reappearance, last month at Newmarket, he starts proper racing life of a 62 rating. High enough for what Tigerskin has achieved to date, but one has to keep in mind handicapping was always always the route he’s go down to, so educational runs where the main aim to date.
He now steps up dramatically in trip, to the sort of distance this colt should be much more home. He isn’t bred too badly actually and looks to have a more than fair chance to get the 1 mile and 3.5f at Windsor, particularly if the ground continues to dry out further.
Open for improvement, racing of a low weight in a weak contest with conditions likely to suit – Tigerskin looks a good bet at current odds.
Selection:
10pts win – Tigerskin @ 9/1 PP
……….
3.40 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 7.5f
The eight-year-old Abushamah looks a fair favourite and will go close, although his not one I’d trust too much, despite a handy mark. Muatadel will struggle over this extended trip if the rain materialises. Leaves this wide open for anyone to take.
This one could be course and distance scorer Dasheen. He won here of a 4lb higher mark last summer (with 3lb claimer) running close to a career highest reaching a TS rating of 71.
He lost her way a bit since then, so it’s not without risk to back him. But down to a mark of 65 he’s of obvious interest back over this CD with a recent pipe opener under his belt.
Selection:
10pts win – Dasheen @ 10/1 Coral
…….
4.55 Windsor: Novice Stakes, 1 mile
I really like the look of Desert Land. Granted, it’s an unknown how this colt has trained on over the winter, and given he has no fancy entries at this stage, it’s a big question mark how good he can be.
But a few points I find really positive: he was an excellent 4th on debut in a hot Yarmouth maiden last September under a sympathetic hands and heels ride, merely 2½ behind smart winner Royal Meeting, who won subsequently the Group 1 Criterium International, beating subsequent 1000 Guineas champion Hermosa.
He looked like he could have gone much harder in the closing stages if asked to do so. Desert Land is obviously quite well bred and related to a few good winners. He’s also an April foal, so should really start to come into his own now.
The question mark is the trip. There is a lot of speed in his pedigree, although also enough stamina to give a mile a go – also he looked like having no issue with 7f whatsoever in his sole run as a 2-year-old.
Selection:
10pts win – Desert Land @ 5/1 William Hill
What a roller-coaster week. Culminating in an emotional and dramatic weekend that included a 16/1 winning selection for the 1000 Guineas as well as a winner in the Kentucky Derby that was no winner half an hour later and a superstar on the other side of the globe far too few people have heard of yet!
Throw in a couple of unlucky 2nd places and a 2000 Guineas result that left me wonder “what if” and you’ve certainly got a few days to remember!
2000 Guineas: What Draw Bias?!
Horses loading for the first Classic of the 2019 flat season, a last few words from Johnny Murtagh on ITV: he’s now leaning toward Magna Grecia based on his observation of the existence of a draw bias in favour of the stands-side.
A few minutes later Twitter was running hot as Magna Grecia passed the line in front of everyone else, indeed. The colt trained by Aiden O’Brien – of course – won the battle of his small group on the stand-side, far away from the rest of the field, comfortably. And because his side was always ahead throughout the race he won the 2000 Guineas rather comfortably in the end.
My selection Skardu ran a massive race and finished 3rd, winning the race in his much larger group. I guess, ideally we wouldn’t have this discussion now and instead we’d have seen a “fair” race. But this is racing. Happened in the past. Will happen again.
Whether there was a draw bias I am not so sure. Most likely there was a pace bias, though. And this had the most profound impact on the outcome of the race. This is certainly something that occurs any given day. If you’re drawn close to the pace and you follow it you always have a better chance of winning than not.
Smarter people will be able to explain all the exact reasons behind it in greater detail than I can or want right now. But that is a racing fact.
On balance I believe – at least over 1 mile – there is little between Magna Grecia and Skardu, and possibly Madhmoon. Will we see a re-match at the Curragh in a few weeks time? Magna Grecia is bound for the first Irish Classic. Wouldn’t it be nice to see these three meet there again? I’d love to see that!
Derby Delight Turns Sour
I live for these big races. The anticipation building over the whole day leading up to the moment when the gates crash open – pure excitement!
Normally I’m neither too high nor too low watching bred and butter racing, regardless of betting, the winning or the losing. Big races get my blood flowing, though.
Getting up at 3am in the morning for the Melbourne Cup? No bother. I can’t sleep anyway because of all the butterflies in my stomach!
The Kentucky Derby is one of my favourite races of the entire year. The occasion, build-up and atmosphere transported thanks to the outstanding NBC coverage is simply stunning.
No different this Saturday night. I was cheering home my selection Maximum Security with passion – surely the neighbours enjoyed it too – pumping the first in the air as the colt crossed the line ahead of everyone else. And who wouldn’t? A 9/1 winner in the Kentucky Derby is something to shout about!
Then the dreaded words: “objection lodged…. hold on to your tickets”. What follows are replay after replay dissecting ever aspect of the final three furlongs of the 145 Kentucky Derby. It was obvious Maximum Security was the best horse in the race. The runner-up Country House had no right to be upset with the result. He wasn’t impeded at all!
But it was also obvious Maximum Security impeded other horses when shifting around when turning home. It could resulted in a pretty bad situation on a different day.
Taking that into consideration I can understand the disqualification. And given the strict US rules it probably was the right call in the end.
On the other hand, whether it is truly a fair call to take the race away from the horse that was quite clearly the best one in the race, because of shifting around in an incredibly tight situation, racing on the limit at the end of a tough contest, doing so on a sloppy surface….
After all these are animals, not robots who run straight on rails as if they’d be pre-programmed machines.
It all happens so fast, there are 150.000 people screaming, horses and riders fighting for space, whips flying around…. it’s racing, not chess. These things happen in the sport and the question that needs to be raised in these type of situations is: did the winner got an unfair advantage and did the runner-up lost because of this situation?
The answer is unequivocal NO in this instance.
Ultimately I feel Maximum Security should have kept the race. What a fairytale it would have been. A horse thought to be so bad he started his career in a $16k claimer, going to win the Kentucky Derby…..
The Best Ever?
South Africa as produced a lot of fantastic race horses over the years. The likes of Variety Club or Igugu come to my mind, in particular. But there is a new kid on the block and he could be the best there ever was in South Africa – some already suggest!
Well, one thing is for sure: Hawwaam is an incredibly exciting colt, with a turn of foot you rarely see produced in such stunning manner. How he races away from his rivals in the closing stages, like it’s the easiest thing in the world, is nothing short of breathtaking.
I took note for the first time – and was immensely impressed – when Hawwaam stepped into Grade 1 company for the first time in the SA Classic earlier this year as he arguably exploded in the final furlong putting a handful of lengths between himself and the rest in a matter of strides.
He followed up on Saturday in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge when stepping up to the 10 furlongs distance and he couldn’t have been more impressive. How often do you see a horse in a top-level contest travelling hard on the bridle approaching the final furlong and then shooting clear under hands and heels? This horse is special:
On to the Durban July now? He surly will go off a warm favourite. And only luck or the lack of can stop him there I reckon.
How great would it be to see this superstar travel the world?! And what a shame that it remains so difficult for South African horses to travel. In turn it means far too few people get to know these classy horses that race on the other side of the globe.
Wayne Lordan Defies the Stats
He was 1 for 42 rides in the UK for Aiden O’Brien and his mounts went off a 25/1 average SP – Wayne Lordan couldn’t have been an unlikelier hero in the 1000 Guineas today – at least judged by the numbers.
Riding the least fancied of the Ballydoyle string once more, Hermosa was a largely ignored runner coming into the race. You could back her at 20/1+ this morning.
I missed those massive prices, but still got 16s with only a few hours to go to the race when making her my sole selection for the 1000 Guineas.
All credit to Wayne Lordan, though. What superb ride: incredibly brave, at the same time keeping it simple, bouncing the filly out of the stalls sending her straight to the lead, knowing Hermosa would likely stay all day and night long.
And she did! She was gutsy, stuck to her guns when challenged and won well in the end. A supremely well bred filly, adds another big race success to her superstar family, given she is a full-sister to Group 1 winners Hydrangea and The United States.
It brings a hectic week to an end. I had 30 bets. Way too many. I go carried away on Monday in particular but was bailed out by New Show at Windsor, thankfully. 4 winners & 120pts profit this week – the highlight obviously Hermosa.
A week of what would have been. 10 placed horses, multiple of those beaten in tight finishes on the line. A winner in the Kentucky Derby that was taken away half an hour later.
Year after year the 1000 Guineas appears to be a tricky puzzle to solve. In truth, I never have been able to connect all the pieces in a successful way. It’s one of those classics I’ll always get wrong.
I guess it simply turns out to be pretty tricky to predict the progress these fillies make over the winter and when – if – how much improvement they can find. Hence I take a swing at a bigger price today once more.
The filly I do quite like is Hermosa. She seems quite far down the pecking order, judged by jockey bookings and odds. Wayne Lordan is a fine jockey but clearly not one who’s riding the best of Aiden O’Brien’s string. 1 for 42 rides in the UK, an average SP of 25/1. The odds are clearly against this to change today.
Obviously I have zero insight in to what the filly shows at home. However, I hope, the fact Ballydoyle even brings Hermosa over to Newmarket counts as a vote of confidence that she has wintered well.
She comes here without a prep run. That doesn’t have to be an issue, as Saturday’s 2000 Guineas proved once more. Judged purely by juvenile form, Hermosa is not far behind the market principles, though, which in turns means her current price tag is well over the top.
This daughter of Galileo was a late May foal, so you would hope for improvement with age and time. Regardless, she proved a smart 2-year-old already:
3rd in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, she went on to win a Naas Group 3 in nice style, was then a good runner-up behind Idriessa – a leading fancy today – in the bet365 Mile here at Nemwarket, and finished 2018 with a superb runner-up effort in the Criterium International over 7 furlongs, racing the boys.
Her career best time speed rating (93) and RPR (110) do not leave her with a lot to find to the leading fancies in the 1000 Guineas – any improvement on that will see her go close, if she is ready to run.
Let’s get this out of the way right away: Ten Sovereigns will not stay. He’ll be a super exciting sprinter for the season to come, though.
Now that we’re clear on this rather important piece of the 2019 2000 Guineas puzzle, let’s focus on finding the winner of the race. I’ve three horses on my short-list.
The second Aiden O’Brien trained colt isn’t on the list: Magna Grecia is rock solid, mind. But I give him a pass at 7/2, as with fast conditions expected at the Rowley Mile today, I feel he’ll likely appreciate an additional couple of furlongs.
The other well fancied Irish runner Madhmoon is intriguing. You could argue it’s a tip in itself Kevin Prendergast sends his star colt over to Newmarket. He’s not doing it very often. His record in the UK is dismal, but one can be forgiving because the average SP’s of his UK runners tell its own story of outcome vs. expectations.
Madhmoon will surely improve for the better ground today. He’ll improve having a run under his belt. He’ll improve stepping up in trip again. Yet I’m not fully on board ad don’t quite feel excited about his chances.
In truth, he probably didn’t beat all that much in the Champions Juvenile Stakes last August. He also ran, despite looking imperious that day, only to a TS rating of 78. As a key piece of form, this isn’t enough for me to invest.
I’ll do happily invest – and could be called a hypocrite calling Madhmoon form average – in Skardu. Recency bias? Am I still “wowed” by his incredible (visually at least) seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes? Possibly.
Nonetheless, I do like a multiple course and distance winner, who looked scintillating on return over the Guineas CD, who has clearly proven to have trained on over the winter.
Skardu’s turn of foot is a thing of beauty. He produced a superb debut performance over 7f at Newmarket last September, leaving a subsequent UAE Derby winner standing still. You would hope there is much, much more to come. Only two runs on the clock, an April foal who’s shown an appreciation for fast ground also. I’m hugely excited!
The only thing I am slightly worried is whether he’ll get a clear run and gets going soon enough, if this would turn into something of a sprint finish, given his racing style.
I’ve got a small saver on a massive long-shot: Emaraaty Ana. The betting says there’s no hope. And the market could be right. But could also underestimate this lad. He was a late May foal, but showed sparkle as a juvenile regardless, landing the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, a Group 2, at Newbury last August.
That was over 6 furlongs. a trip rather on the sharp side one would think given his pedigree. It was no surprise to see him taken off his feat in the Middle Park Stakes subsequently.
Emaraaty Ana is bred to stay a mile, in fact to improve for the step up in trip. He is related to a couple of winners over the 1 mile trip. He’s proven to act on fast ground and ran a career best TS rating not dissimilar to what most other leading contenders in this field have achieved to date. Age is on his side, I feel – one way or another he’ll be ‘one to follow’ this year.
This race presents the rare opportunity for me to back a lto winner. Kirkland Forever looks poised to follow up on his recent Windsor success. He appeared to win a shad cozily that day, and came from a position that isn’t the easiest to from at Windsor.
This lad is rather progressive, posting a 2-1-1-3 record before heading to a deserved winter break last autumn. Running to a TS rating of 68 on his seasonal comeback, he was obviously well handicapped that day.
A 4lb rise in the mark for Kirkland Forever may still underestimate him, and even though a bit more is required today, he should go well again in hands of talented Georgia Dobie.
Selection:
10pts win – Kirkland Forever @ 5/1 MB
…….
4.25 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Justice Lady looks ready to rumble today on her return to turf off a 5lb lower mark than when last seen on the grass in 2018. She was a strong runner-up the last two times on the All-Weather, though, in higher grade.
While last season wasn’t quite as productive as 2017, where she won twice on decent ground over the minimum trip of 78 and 80 marks in higher class, she posted an All-Weather career-best back in February as she ran to a TS rating of 73, suggesting she still has an appetite for the game and is as good as ever.
Fast 5 furlongs in lower grade of a 2lb lower mark than her last winning one – Justice Lady will be hard to beat today.
Selection:
10pts win – Justice Lady @ 9/2 MB
……
5.50 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Sea The Stars has a strong All-Weather record, even more so at Newcastle’s Tapeta surface. So, no surprise to see his two sons topping the market here. However, the question is to ask, whether there is that much between the two as the betting suggests?
Lightly raced Shareef Star was unlucky on his seasonal reapperance and is sure to go well, nonetheless he’s got to show it first, given he is a maiden who found trouble in his last two starts.
Celestial Force in contrast is already a course and distance winner and also has some excellent form to his name, including running to a TS rating of 81, which in turn should give him a good chance today of a current 80 handicap mark, if he improves from his recent comeback run.
It’s all over – Ruby Walsh has retired. Immediately after landing the Punchestown Gold Cup, delivering Kemboy under a typically ice cool ride, the 39-year-old announced the end to his long and esteemed career in the saddle.
I guess it doesn’t come entirely as a surprise, given rumours were making rounds in the last few weeks – even though, only a few days ago, on the back of the Irish Grand National, Ruby said he’s not done yet. Indeed, he wasn’t… not quite yet, at least.
To be honest, watching him celebrating exuberantly, and sometimes – or so it seemed to my eyes – taking the atmosphere in a bit more pronounced than in the past, indicated that something is coming to an end.
So, the man that will be forever associated with some of the biggest legends of our sport has left the scene. He did it in one piece. It’s the most important thing. Ruby, as far as I can judge from observing him on the racetracks of Ireland over the years, as well as on TV, has always conducted himself with great dignity, humility and a “down to earth” attitude.
Racing will be poorer without him in the saddle, though, I imagine we’ll see him becoming a regular face on TV as a pundit.
………
2.45 Musselburgh: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4.5f
A truly uncompetitive contest that should go to Kajaki who is ideally suited to this track, trip and likely ground, with the rain arriving probably even more so.
The gelding likes to be up with the pace, if not even attempting to make all. Clearly an advantage at Musselburgh in my book. He had a good comeback run at Pontefract recently and drops down to a handy mark.
Kajaki has won of 79 in the past and ran competitively of a mark as high as 84 last year. So down to 74 now the 6-year-old seems weighted to win.
Selection:
10pts win – Kajaki @ 5/2 MB
…….
3.15 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
You can confidently take on the market principles in this contest. None looks particularly well handicapped. That leaves this race wide open and I think handicap debutant Brahma Kamal is interesting with Joe Fanning in the saddle.
The son of Equiano couldn’t have gotten a much lower opening mark, so I assume he’ll be ready to race today. He drops back to the minimum trip, which should suit as on his seasonal debut at Newcastle in February racing over 7f he broke well but was mad keen as well.
He’s not badly bred, out of a fair sprinting mare, while Equiano’s tend to do well when dropping in trip, particularly over the minimum trip.
Selection:
10pts win – Brahma Kamal @ 9/1 MB
…….
3.50 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Anything points to a big run for Be Bold today. He’s had a few fair runs on the All-Weather leading up to today, but he’s a much better horse on turf. Down to a sexy mark, given he won last year in spring of 54 and ran to TS 57, now on 51, he looks ripe for another victory.
David Allen in the saddle, even more so here at Musselburgh, appears to be a significant jockey booking as well as trainer and jockey have a strong record together.
Finished April with a winner and thanks to that with a small profit. Ashazuri (6/1) finished her race really nicely and took advantage of the featherweight she carried. It could have been so much better, but both The British Lion and Chaplin Bay only managed third place.
Well, on to May now…. where the flat kicks properly into gear. The Guineas and Kentucky Derby looming large on the horizon – exciting!
…….
5.00 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 5 furlongs
Top weight Tomily drops down to class 4 as well as to a sexy mark – he’s an obvious choice in an open contest, where many could put claim on running well, but few appear truly well handicapped.
Tomily ran well enough on his seasonal reappearance in a hot race at Kempton last month. That’s a positive after his form clearly tailed off in the second half of last year.
However he was competing in much hotter grade than this today of much higher marks. He managed to run to TS ratings of 90+ on three occasions in 2018, albeit on the All-Weather. But he was also less than 3 lengths beaten in a strong class 3 sprint at Ripon in May.
So, if Tomily can regain anything near his best today he’ll be hard to beat in hands of a very capable 5lb claimer in the saddle.
Selection:
10pts win – Tomily @ 15/2 MB
……..
7.25 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7 furlongs
Maazel is frustrating horse to follow, usually having a few issues at the start and then running consistently into trouble, so the last few times on the All-Weather as well as three weeks ago here over course and distance.
He got a few bumps along the way, made up a lot of ground after starting slowly but was squeezed badly inside the final furlong.
He’s down a mark of 55 now. That looks definitely a handy mark, given he ran to higher TS ratings in the past on turf and AW, most recently in March at Lingfield when he ran to a TS rating of 58. So if he can get a clear run in what appears not to be a particularly strong race, he should go close.
Small but competitive race. Favourite Jabber looks a fine chance after a recent Chester win, however off 6lb higher he appears vulnerable all the same.
I really like the chance of Mutadaffeq, in contrast. You can easily cross a line through his two 2018 runs. In big fields things worked very much against him on both occasions.
Thanks to that he drops down to a tasty mark off 84 – he won off 2lb higher last August. A smaller field, with less chance for interference where he might even can dominate if he wishes to go forward – when he won a 5-runner class 3 Handicap at Pontefract last year he made all.
Mutadaffeq has ran to a time speed rating of 85 as well as numerous 85+ RPR’s in the past, so it’s fair to assume if he is anywhere near his best, with conditions likely to suit, he should go very close today.
Clive Cox’s Ghazan makes his handicap- and season debut today. He steps up to 10f for the first time as well. The colt showed a good deal of promise in three starts as a juvenile in the second half of last year.
Particular his final run, when 3rd in a Nottingham maiden looks particularly strong form. The race certainly worked out well.
With natural improvement likely to come for experience and the new trip, I feel a mark off 75 might underestimate him – granted Ghazan is ready to go today.
Selection:
10pts win – Ghazan @ 8/1 VC
…..
5.00 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Rickyroadboy is in superb form since the start of the turf season. He won two and been in the money the other two starts, most recently a good fortnight ago in a big Thirsk handicap.
He looks like the sort still capable of progressing a bit further. He has the benefit of the 1 draw today which ensure pole position, as long as he starts, well which he usually does.
The ground is the only slight question mark. His wins came with cut in the ground, although his recent runner-up performance came on fast ground. Either way, Rickyroadboy is a clear favourite in my book.
Selection:
10pts win – Rickyroadboy@ 7/2 WH
……
6.20 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Artic Sea is the only colt in a competitive race dominated by geldings and a few fillies. The fact connections haven’t decided to go down the most drastic route, means they must see something at home that make them belief he could still improve.
Fact is he is down to a lowly mark, only a pound higher than winning over a mile at Chepstow last May. He’s ran over further on plenty of occasions subsequently, so the drop to 7f is a gamble.
Ground should suit, though, and first time blinkers may eke out a bit of improvement. Expect Artic Sea to go from the front and use his stamina to hold off any challengers. Interesting this is the only runner saddled for trainer Paul Cole and the only ride for Raul da Silva today.
The combination of interesting track/trip/ground conditions, a fair looking mark and a small field possibly to be dominated from the front for a jockey/trainer combo that has had quite a bit of success in the past, I feel Artic Sea is a worthy favourite in this race.
Horseracing - International . COM 