Tag Archives: Goodwood

Betting

Friday Selections: 24th May 2024

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4.30 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 5.5f

It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot two weeks ago coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually to lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, only 2 lengths beaten.

That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. If she can build on that run, she should have something in hand right now.

Dropping down in class, and slightly in trip to the 5.5f at Bath should suit, especially as she races against her own sex today. Her draw appears ideal, because having confirmed front-runner Connie’s Rose drawn right beside her will allow Starproof to sit on her tail, getting towed into the closing stages.

The filly is quite ground independent and won’t mind any potential soft patches left in the going description. The handicapper has been kind, having left her on the same 73 mark as she was allowed to race at Ascot. She won’t find many better opportunities to score.

10pts win – Starproof @ 4/1

…….

5.10 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This doesn’t strike me as the strongest race for this class and that offers Safari Dream a chance to outrun his price, as he who moves up in grade after he caught the eye in his last two runs.

He couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground the last time at Salisbury, yet he travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on his penultimate start, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and can strike if things fall right.

The handicapper dropped him another pound, despite those two good runs, which could prove lenient. The better ground today should suit, and he’s ran a career-best speed rating over this course and distance twelve months ago.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 17/2

……..

7.20 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 1m

I was sweet on Blues Emperor in the Lincoln back in March. That day didn’t panned out the way it was hoped, as he was always in the wind from early on, helping to push hot pace that wasn’t sustainable.

Back from a break since then, he’s back at the Curragh, and over a course and distance he’s got a 2-1-1 record, on decent enough ground that’ll suit.

He should be at his prime this year, after a fruitful campaign in 2023 where he improved with nearly every run – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way that particular race panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

Today is a highly competitive contest, but one where there should be less competition for the pace than at Doncaster. It can prove crucial racing toward the front over this CD, so he may enjoy the run of the race today. Off a 96 mark, he could still have a bit more to offer as well.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th May 2024

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1.45 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.

He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won’t be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark – but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.

In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating a Ascot.

Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be ran at a furious pace, it’s likely game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I’m hopeful he’ll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 10/1

……..

2.05 Goodwood: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 1m

Choisya was the one to take out from the Snowdrop Stakes last month, where she got desperately close against the run of the race.

Caught wide throughout, given the way the race panned out in front of her, she made superb progress from halfway through the race, always turning widest, and it was her class that put her into a challenging position with two furlongs to go.

In a battle to the line she had to pay tribute to those earlier exertions eventually, still only beaten by a head, and also finishing the closing stages with the fastest sectionals.

The filly isn’t low mileage compared to some other rivals today. But she was progressive last season, has shown versatility if it comes to ground and racing position, and her last three efforts, a close second at Newmarket in October, and two subsequent All-Weather efforts, give the impression there’s still more to come.

She handles the soft ground and shouldn’t be too far away from likely pace setter Orchid Bloom. This filly sets the standard on speed ratings and looks rock solid, if ready to go off a break.

At given prices, I favour Choisya, though. She hasn’t fully convinced on speed ratings yet, but I firmly believe she’s got the ability to run a big one, in the right conditions – hopefully today.

10pts win – Choisya @ 11/2

………

3.35 Newmarket: Group 1 2000 Guineas, 1m

Can you oppose City Of Troy? if you believe the hype that surrounds the Aiden O’Brien trained colt, you absolutely can not.

On pure numbers COT is clearly the one to beat: unbeaten as a juvenile, a fine 77 speed rating on debut, followed by two 100+ performances, to land the Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes.

That’s the sign of a classy individual, although, not of the “best ever”… yet. He still has to improve going into his classic campaign, and must prove that he has trained on. There’re some question marks looming of Justify offspring in this regard.

The other question: is there anything in this field good enough to beat him? Ten rivals go head to head with City Of Troy.

Haatem won the Craven Stakes showing a lovely attitude last month. His race fitness must count for something and he achieved a decent enough speed rating to give the performance merit. He’s certainly not low mileage, though, and one has to wonder how much more improvement is left.

Unbeaten Ghostwriter won the Royal Lodge in good style when last seen and is one the more likely candidates to improve to the level required to land a Guineas.

He’s achieved two mid-90 speed ratings last year. That’s a solid platform to head into this year, although also, purely judged on that form, still requires a significant step up.

Rosallion, for one, appears the main challenger for City Of Try, if the betting is an accurate reflection. Already a Group 1 winner, he stayed on well to win the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October. However, a son of Blue Point stretching out to a mile on this level, I have issues to imagine. Never say never, though.

Task Force is an intriguing horse. second in the Middle Park, yet to race beyond 6 furlongs, but possibly suited by the step up in trip, open to plenty of improvement, could be a different horses as a 3-year-old over this trip, especially after a win operation.

Night Rider was an impressive winner at Southwell earlier this year. Visually an impressive performance, I’m not yet sold on his ability to bring this speed to a mile.

Alyanaabi was third in the Dewhurst behind City Of Troy. He’s got plenty to find judged on that performance. So has Iberian, a long way beaten that day. Though, the step up to a mile will surely suit.

Notable Speech remains unbeaten in three runs this year. All came on the All-Weather over 7 furlongs and didn’t set the world alight on speed rating. Hard to judge how good he is moving up to a mile.

Ten Bob Tony won a Conditions race last month. But this is much more demanding and I struggle to see how he’s anywhere near good enough for this level.

In a summary, one could argue: there’s plenty of unknowns in this race. City Of Troy sets a good standard and the fact Ballydoyle sends him as their sole representative speaks of a high degree of confidence.

Nonetheless, I’m prepared to take the odds-on favourite on because I simply can’t leave Inisherin unbacked. One of my Horses to Follow this year, he appears somewhat underappreciated in this field, yet is one clearly open to tons of improvement.

This son of Shamardal was beaten only half a lengths on debut last September when the market expected nothing from him(50/1). Possibly well drawn on that day, in fairness, he travelled the best of all to 2 furlongs out and was only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse eventually.

That form doesn’t look too shabby, and he also achieved a pretty decent 76 speed rating for a debut performance.

He got his maiden victory ticket off in March at Newcastle with a visually impressive run on his seasonal return.

One can argue he was flattered by that performance because he got the run of the race from the front in a crawl of a race. Nonetheless, the way he easily sprinted home, without ever being really touched, hitting strong sectionals in the final part of the race, screams talent.

Even more so impressive he was able to show this speed and change of gear as the breeding suggests somewhere beyond a mile will be his optimum trip.

Inisherin looks sure to improve for the experience and a step up in trip may be ideal on pedigree post Guineas as he’s out of smart Ajman Princess who was a Ribblesdale Stakes runner-up and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

With that in mind, I feel he should enjoy the likely fast pace in this edition of the 2000 Guineas, that could ensure the race turns into a stamina test in the end.

10pts win – Inisherin @ 49/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 16th June 2023

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19 and counting… worst losing run in a while. Griggy a big drifter on the day, never spotted in the race. Making a habit of it right now. On to tomorrow…

……

6.05 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Barrier is one of the Handicappers to follow and I feel this looks an ideal Handicap debut for the filly. Judge her on a poor seasonal reappearance at your peril, dare I say…. this is a completely different proposition than what she encountered at Newmarket.

She dropped out rapidly and seriously badly from 4f out, but you could also argue until then she ran quite well, given she missed the break badly. actually.

That was tough opener, against strong opposition to the most part. It served the purpose to qualify for Handicaps, though. She can start off a 67 mark, which could be significantly underestimating her.

The drop to 10 furlongs doesn’t worry me too much, although she may turn out to be better over further. The opening mark is simply so low, I find it hard to believe, especially as she showed promise as a juvenile, on her final start in 2022 at Ascot, where I felt her run warrants an upgrade.

New headgear may help her to get her race off a bit sharper. She missed the break in all her starts, so that’s a concern. The fast ground is somewhat of an unknown, too, given it’s hard to take anything away from that lto run.

Nonetheless, I can’t leave her unbacked at this price, even though I would hope there is some support in the market later. It could also mean I’ve got it spectacularly wrong in my assessment of this filly.

10pts win – Barrier @ 20/1

………….

4.25 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Absolutely no doubt Bell Song is well-handicapped off 72 in her second run in Handicap company. She showed plenty in each of her three starts this year, including on Handicap debut last week, but has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper, who couldn’t have been any fairer.

Last week at Chelmsford she had the widest draw to overcome., which was a major disadvantage. She was caught wide and didn’t find cover for the first half of the race.

As a consequence she moved forward, used up loads of energy, to find a suitable position, eventually. It was impressive how she was able to kick on approaching the home straight and also the way she stayed well to the line despite all the trouble.

She was only beaten by one ridden with more restraint from a low draw. How good the form is remains to be seen, but the filly couldn’t have done much more to catch the eye. She has been left, surprisingly, on a 72 mark.

Which in itself looks on the low side, given her excellent seasonal reappearance at Southwell that looks quite strong form, where she didn’t get a clear run, otherwise she would have finished closer.

She may need to move up to a mile to be seen to best effect, but 7 furlongs seem fine for now. The pace looks somewhat muddling in this race. That’s a good and a bad thing.

One hand it means she should have no issue overcoming the #8 draw and follow the lead of likely front-runner Taritino drawn right beside her. She should be in an ideal position if all goes well. But she can be a bit keen as well, and may prefer a decent pace to aim at. There’s a risk.

Saying that, the risks are possibly outweighed simply by the fact that the filly could have way too much in hand in this field, I believe, on what is her turf debut, with fast ground probably to suit, given the pedigree. I don’t get this price, at all.

10pts win – Bell Song @ 11/1

………

3.35 York: Listed Ganton Stakes, 1m

This race and pace scenario screams for an upset. Shining Blue is expected to go off as favourite. That’s fair. He won really well in Handicap company when last seen over 7 furlongs and does stay a mile.

On the other hand, the shorter trip is probably his optimum. His best speed rating came in January at Meydan over 7f. Purely judged on that he’s the one to beat.

A mile, fast ground, muddling pace, is a somewhat different scenario, and outside Meydan his form isn’t all that impressive. Therefore, he could be more vulnerable than the short price suggests.

El Drama is the pick on career-best speed ratings. But he may like it a bit longer than a mile and he hasn’t ran any faster than speed ratings in the 70s in over two years. That’s normally not good enough for this level. But then, this isn’t an overly strong race, either.

Chichester should find this easier than the last time and ran well on the All-Weather before. Though, he might be outpaced if this turns into a sprint for home and he could be poorly positioned in rear.

Longshot Silver Screen can’t be fancied, however Azano has all the right attributes to outrun his price here.

He’s only rated 92, and has a lot to find on Official Ratings and normally wouldn’t be too likely to land a blow outside Handicap company. Yet, this race may fall into his lap.

On the plus side, he showed fine form in his last two runs this year. Last time at Sandown he did too much to get to the front from his wide draw when he made the donkey work for those from off the pace, basically.

His Newmarket run in May, though, was strong, and a repeat of that form could be good enough to win this Listed contest.

That day he made the most of the standing start when he quickly moved forward to lead, as he set a strong pace and had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out. He ran home well and even rallied in the final furlong, but was eventually beaten by a strong winner.

I do rate that performance, as it represented somewhat of a return to close of his best form. Hos best gives him a definite chance her. Especially over a mile on fast ground where he may find himself able to dominate.

Although the earlier prices of around 40s seem rapidly disappearing since having started writing this post, I think what’s on offer is still a huge price given the likely circumstances of this race, and I’d be pretty certain Azano will outrun these odds.

10pts win – Azano @19/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 9th June 2023

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3.10 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Belsito makes a lot of appeal as he moves up in trip again. Over the minimum trip he seemed to be taken off his feet at crucial stages of races, but he always showed great attitude in the final stages of his last two runs especially, while also showing solid early speed at the same time.

That says, on his seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh he fell out of the gate, before he overcame that awkward start quickly, moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. He did way too much to get there and ran really well in those circumstances overall.

He followed up next time at Redcar when he set a strong pace and fought gamely to finish third eventually.

He’s a full-brother to a Group 3 winning miler, so going up to 6 furlongs should be a positive.

He tried it twice early in his career, without success, but he had valid excuses on those days, I think.

10pts win – Belsito @ 9/2

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4.40 Thirsk: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Stalingrad is cherry ripe I feel, yet on fast ground I’m not sure I want to trust this 22 race maiden here as the favourite in the betting.

Trust is needed to back Dream Together as well after a recent breathing issue and wind op.

He certainly looked amiss after a weak finish when last seen at Haydock, after he actually travelled quite well on stands’ side there for a long time, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as he was racing away from where the pace developed.

He travelled strongly to 2f out before his effort petered out and we now know why that is. If the recent operation has rectified any issues he’ll be a huge chance.

He could easily get a perfect position closer to the stands’ rail and dominate the race from there in a field where not to many want to move forward.

He’s another 2lb down and well-handicapped now based on the fact that he ran pretty well most of the time in recent weeks. Also he achieved speed ratings last season that if he can run somewhere close to those here today – now that he’s hopefully healthy again – makes him a stand out horse from a handicapping perspective.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 5/1

………..

7.00 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Yellow Lion was a serious eyecatcher at Newmarket when last seen and looks the one to beat if he can run to the same level of form.

He drops in class, but perhaps even more importantly he drops in trip. He didn’t seem to stay a mile at Newmarket. However, he travelled sweetly for a very long time, in a manner of a talented horse. He did so without cover on the outside of the field as well.

The colt showed good early pace and fine cruising speed before he dropped out quickly from 1.5f out and doing so without having an ideal race and against solid opposition.

That was his handicap debut, he’s lost 2lb off his opening mark in the meantime, so has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper.

The way he travelled gives the impression that he may enjoy proper fast ground. I could envision that he may even would enjoy the drop to 6f, but 7f is certainly worth a go here.

10pts win – Yellow Lion @ 4/1

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7.20 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Cuban Breeze ran a lovely race earlier this week at Wolverhampton when 2nd behind one who was potentially well-handicapped on old form, and who got the run of the race from the front.

This here is easier. A fillies’ 0-80; Cuban Breeze is clearly in excellent form as evidence of her last two runs. Wolverhampton was a strong performance, so was her Windsor run prior.

She made too much there from the front in deep ground conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs she showed in most of her more recent runs.

She’s now 4lb lower than her last winning mark, which cam off 85 over 6f on fast ground last August.

The fact that visually she made good impressions in recent weeks but also that she ran to a 79 speed rating at Kempton at the end of April points to the suggestion that she’s in strong form, ready to win.

10pts win – Cuban Breeze @ 4/1

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7.55 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Batchelor Boy could be seriously overpriced in this field where many have questions not answer, not least on the handicapping front.

The gelding showed signs of form the last two runs, since coming back from a break. He bumped into a well-handicapped one on his seasonal reappearance and ran a tremendous race from the front the last time at Brighton over 7 furlongs.

He flew down the first half of the race, was over a full second faster to the 3f marker than the eventual winner. He gradually tired but was game to the line.

The drop to 6f is sure to suit, so does the fast ground. Haydock as a more conventional track is intriguing, as most of his racing has been done at Brighton.

It’s a concern that he hasn’t run a significant speed rating in over two years, but I give him the benefit of the doubt given that most recent strong performance have suggested he’s in the same form as when winning races in the last two years.

First time visor looks intriguing, too. He won in first-time blinkers in the past.

10pts win – Batchelor Boy @ 20/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #2

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

Serious Look
25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:

Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.

Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.

Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.

Race Replay

I’m Mable
26/04/23 – 7.55 Lingfield:

Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.

Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.

Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

Spanish Angel
26/04/23 – 1.50 Catterick:

Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.

Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.

He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.

Race Replay

Soul Seeker
27/04/23 – 2.20 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.

Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.

Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.

Race Replay

Lord Rapscallion
27/04/23 – 6.15 Chelmsford:

Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.

Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.

Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.

Race Replay

Platinum Girl
28/04/23 – 5.35 Doncaster:

Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.

Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.

Race Replay

Lotus Rose
29/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.

Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.

Race Replay

Glorious Rio
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.

Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.

Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.

Race Replay

Dream Together
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.

Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.

Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.

Race Replay

Forward Flight
30/04/23 – 3.35 Wetherby:

Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.

Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.

Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.

Race Replay

Belsito
30/04/23 – 3.45 Musselburgh:

Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.

Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.

Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Eponina
01/05/23 – 4.03 Beverley:

Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.

Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.

Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.

Race Replay

Master Sully
01/05/23 – 3.33 Bath:

First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.

Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.

Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.

Race Replay

Sir Titan
02/05/23 – 1.50 Brighton:

Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.

Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.

Race Replay

Mount Mogan
03/05/23 – 6.10 Brighton:

Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.

Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.

Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Hardy Angel
03/05/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.

Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.

Race Replay

Fiscal Policy
03/05/23 – 9.00 Kempton:

Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.

Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Shabaaby
04/05/23 – 2.00 Ayr:

Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.

Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.

Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.

Race Replay

Gullane One
04/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.

Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.

Race Replay

Big R
04/05/23 – 2.10 Salisbury:

At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.

Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.

Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.

Race Replay

Michaels Choice
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.

Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.

Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

With Respect
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.

Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.

Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.

Race Replay

Capofan
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.


Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.

Race Replay


B Associates
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.


Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.

Race Replay

Azano
05/05/23 – 5.20 Newmarket:

Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.

Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.

Race Replay

Island Star
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.

Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Vecchio
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.

Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Straits Of Moyle
06/05/23 – 2.00 Thirsk:

Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.

Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.

Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.

Race Replay

Lokada
06/05/23 – 1.35 Naas:

Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.

Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 30th July 2022

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Great win for German raider Rocchigiani at Goodwood today. He had to survive a stewards inquiry post race, but thankfully placings remained unaltered. He was clearly the best horse on the day, in any case, in my view.

That breaks my losing streak – 15 losers on the bounce. Now it stands at one. Because Scale Force missed the break at Southwell later on. He finished like a train but the damage was done before the race really started. Shame.

………..

7.45 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I’ve got 18 eyecatchers on this “Super Saturday”, yet end up with a single bet on Lingfield’s polytrack. In any case, it’s a strong selection. And that’s what matters most.

Richard P Smith ran a huge race at Chepstow when last seen. It was his Handicap debut and he was quite keen early on and was hanging ever so slightly too. He attempted to make all from the front, had the field on the stretch from three furlongs out and found under pressure. He was eventually beaten by a horse from off the pace.

The winner went on to frank the form in no uncertain terms: a neck beaten second and subsequent victory. the fifth placed horse also won two on the bounce in the meantime.

This is going to be only the second handicap start for Richard P Smith and the first time over 10 furlongs. The way he pulled at Chepstow is a concern but the way he ran on strongly suggested he wants the trip.

He remains unexposed and with enough potential upside, the 2lb additional pounds given be the handicapper aren’t a big deal I reckon. There won’t be a ton of pace on here, so I hope Robert Havlin will go forward from the #7 raw. If not, it will probably to the detriment of Richard P Smith’s chances, that’s for sure.

10pts win – Richard P Smith @ 5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th July 2022

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2.25 Goodwood: Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes, 1m

Rocchigiani caught the eye twice this year. Now stepping up to a mile again he looks the one to beat in this contest in my eyes, hence I am delighted with the odds on offer.

The German raider always tracked the pace and travelled pretty well until 2.5 furlongs from home in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. He couldn’t move forward with horses right in front of him but also appeared flat footed when gaps opened up. He ran on nicely in the closing stages for a solid 5th place finish, though.

He had to give about three pounds of weight away to the majority of the field that day. No easy task, even less so on fast ground and 7 furlongs. Clearly the test was too sharp, but equally clearly he came out with his reputation enhanced.

Earlier the season he would have been a runaway winner of the German 2000 Guineas, if not for the exciting Maljoom. Rocchigiani was always right on the speed and kicked on as soon as he entered the home straight. He had the entire field off the bridle; only the late finishing Maljoom got to him in the end.

The fast ground at Goodwood is a slight question mark. Although, it wasn’t slow at Cologone either, so I’m hopeful it won’t be too much of an issue for him here.

10pts win – Rocchigiani  @ 13/2

……

6.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Scale Force finished a few weeks ago over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton in a manner that suggested he’s ready to win. He had a troubled run, which started with usual poor start, and was short of room over a furlong out at a crucial stage.

Down to a mark of 56 now, he’s possibly quite well handicapped, given he performed strongly off higher marks earlier this year, most notably off a 66 mark over 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton in February when he finished half a lengths beaten in third, and his topspeed matched his mark.

If he doesn’t mess up the start this time he should be a prime chance to win, especially with the valuable 5lb claim of Aiden Keeley in the saddle.

10pts win – Scale Force @ 12/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 28th July 2022

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1.50 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

A seriously competitive Handicap. I can make a case for a number of horses here. And that’s why I’d rather not get involved in these type of races – usually. But I am too excited about Migdam not to get involved after all.

He is short enough in the betting but I reckon could look like a generous price post race if he turns out to be anywhere near as good as I think he can be.

Leaving his debut firmly behind in when winning his second and third career run last year, he started this season at Doncaster last month. It was his handicap debut as well and he proved to be well ahead of his opening mark.

He travelled well, he was brave, he overcame some bumps and trouble during the race and then kicked away in impressive fasion in the final furlong to leave some decent opposition standing – including next time out winner Adjourn.

This here is much harder and he’s 5lb higher in the mark: he’s yet to run especially fast judged on topspeed. But he looks to have tons of upside, possibly as a stakes horse and should be capable of better than a 95 Official Rating. He was also noted to have been working really well at home too, which gives me additional confidence.

10pts win – Migdam @ 7/2

…….

7.30 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Falesia Beach on decent ground over 7 furlongs off a 71 mar? Sounds like the ideal scenario I envisioned when she ran into my notebook at Newmarket six weeks ago.

Back then over 6 furlongs, she was outpaced at various stages of the race but fought really gamely all the way to the line to finish third only half a lengths beaten.

Clearly she needs an additional furlong, as does her pedigree suggest given the stamina on the dam side, plus previous performances indicating that too.

She is still lightly raced enough to see some improvement, certainly over 7 furlongs on decent to fast ground, which, judged by the Newmarket performance, could be what she wants.

She ran to topspeed 71 that day too. So if she can improve for the additional furlong on this type of ground then there is every chance she will be well-handicapped.

10pts win – Falesia Beach @ 7/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 27th July 2022

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It’s a funny old game. It really is. Early in the month things were just flowing and going my way. Now the total opposite is the case.

Today was especially hard to swallow because I was quite clearly on the best horse in the race. Night On Earth ran a huge race in 3rd place today. Especially taking into consideration that the jockey lost an iron early after an awkward start. The gelding severely lit up went off way too hard in front subsequently.

Only half a lengths beaten in the end, he clearly was seriously well handicapped. I fear he possibly has shown too much to the handicapper now. Wait and see if he remains of interest.

In any case, it’s fitting for a 12th consecutive loser. I really could do with a winner again.

……

5.20 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

Even though Mums Tipple hasn’t won in well over a year and was most likely fully tuned up for his latest Newmarket run, he is of high interest in this race, given he is allowed to race off the same 92 handicap mark as last time out.

About three weeks ago he travelled nicely, tracking the eventual winner for most of the race, made rapid- and certainly eye-catching progress from three furlongs out and looked sure to go close.

If he would have ran in a straight line he may well have won on the day, but he hang to his left and that cost him not only the victory but also second place in the end.

Yet Mums Tipple ran the fastest combined split for the last two furlongs and showed he has enough stamina to see out the trip strongly even in a tough finish. He also ran right to his current Official Rating on topspeed, which underlines the quality of this performance.

We know he has plenty of speed over shorter trips, too. He acts well on fast ground. He enjoys a top draw in stall #2 and should himself in a perfect spot for the majority of the race, which will Sean Levey plenty of options.

Ultimately Mums Tipple is a straightforward, uncomplicated horse. There don’t appear many well-handicapped horses in this field. He won’t need luck in running – he simply needs to show the same level of form as three weeks ago.

Therein lies the only concern I have: can he back up such a strong performance only 19 days later? I’m happy to find out with my money riding on him.

10pt win – Mums Tipple @ 9/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 26th July 2022

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4.10 Goodowood: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Night On Earth really catches the eye here off 2lb lower than earlier this month when he ran a huge race at Newmarket. He was isolated on the near rail but looked dangerous for quite some time until fading in the final furlong. I felt that performance was noteworthy and clear proof the 4-year-old is in fine form.

He ran quite well a number of times this year already, whether that be on turf or the All-Weather, including two victories at Kempton and Lingfield and even more importantly in my view, a strong third place in April at Newmarket off a 95 mark while running to topspeed 94 that day.

He couldn’t quite match those heights in the following weeks and months but had mitigating factors more than once. As a consequence he’s now down to a rating of 89.

On the basis of those forms from earlier this season he’s seriously well-handicapped; in the light of his recent eye-catching run he’s almost certainly in with a huge shout in this race.

The cherry on the cake is the booking of Frederick Larson, who claims 5lb. There aren’t many negatives – if one, then there’s the draw that may prove tricky, depending how the pace plays out. On the other hand he usually starts well, can be ang up with the pace, and that can be an advantage at this speed favouring track.

Even though this is a typically competiive and hot sprint Handicap at Glorious Goodwood, not many appear overly well threated off their current marks. Night On Earth is one of very few who ticks most boxes. For me he is significantly overpriced here.

10pts win – Night On Earth @ 10.5