It’s a funny old game. It really is. Early in the month things were just flowing and going my way. Now the total opposite is the case.
Today was especially hard to swallow because I was quite clearly on the best horse in the race. Night On Earth ran a huge race in 3rd place today. Especially taking into consideration that the jockey lost an iron early after an awkward start. The gelding severely lit up went off way too hard in front subsequently.
Only half a lengths beaten in the end, he clearly was seriously well handicapped. I fear he possibly has shown too much to the handicapper now. Wait and see if he remains of interest.
In any case, it’s fitting for a 12th consecutive loser. I really could do with a winner again.
5.20 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
Even though Mums Tipple hasn’t won in well over a year and was most likely fully tuned up for his latest Newmarket run, he is of high interest in this race, given he is allowed to race off the same 92 handicap mark as last time out.
About three weeks ago he travelled nicely, tracking the eventual winner for most of the race, made rapid- and certainly eye-catching progress from three furlongs out and looked sure to go close.
If he would have ran in a straight line he may well have won on the day, but he hang to his left and that cost him not only the victory but also second place in the end.
Yet Mums Tipple ran the fastest combined split for the last two furlongs and showed he has enough stamina to see out the trip strongly even in a tough finish. He also ran right to his current Official Rating on topspeed, which underlines the quality of this performance.
We know he has plenty of speed over shorter trips, too. He acts well on fast ground. He enjoys a top draw in stall #2 and should himself in a perfect spot for the majority of the race, which will Sean Levey plenty of options.
Ultimately Mums Tipple is a straightforward, uncomplicated horse. There don’t appear many well-handicapped horses in this field. He won’t need luck in running – he simply needs to show the same level of form as three weeks ago.
Therein lies the only concern I have: can he back up such a strong performance only 19 days later? I’m happy to find out with my money riding on him.
10pt win – Mums Tipple @ 9/1