Tag Archives: Betting

Tuesday Selections

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2.20 Windsor: Class 5 Nursery, 6f

Recently gelded and with first time cheek-pieces I feel Another Boy deserves another chance. He drops in class as well has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent, albeit far from exciting performances. He third placed effort in a three runner race lto doesn’t look exciting at all. though it came against two pretty decent rivals and the form looks good. The race wasn’t run to suit him, yet he stayed on to be beaten only two lengths after all.

A return to a bigger field should help. And if the gelding op and headgear have any sort of positive effect, he should go close today – although the draw isn’t the kindest. He seems a bit overpriced nonetheless.

Another Boy @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Horrible race with not much recent form on offer. However Vastly makes plenty of appeal here, dropping in class and stepping up in trip after two very respectable efforts on the All-Weather over 1m. The gelding didn’t appear to like Chelmsford lto and was badly outpaced, though was game and genuine in the closing stages in a race that looks not too shabby on paper in terms of how the form has worked out since.

Vastly has won over course and distance in the past, albeit pre-tapeta times. He’s done that in February 2014 of a mark off 68, had since then only four more starts, the last two respectable, as mentioned. He’s 6lb lower rated at the moment, so that gives him an excellent chance in this field to find back to form.

A decent 3b claimer has been booked for the ride, which adds to the arguments pro Vastly here. If he can only improve slightly for the last two outings and the trip, he’s gonna go very close.

Vastly @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Sunday Selections – York

Newmarket July Course

2.30 York: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Two three year old fillies stand out in this field: Distain is the first one. She didn’t quite stay the 1m 5f trip at Chester the last time, but now dropped back to 10f she could be a real force. I was impressed with her change of gear when getting off the mark at Redcar in a maiden on only her second start. 10f here at flat York in a big handicap with a hot pace, she could be ideally suited and better than her current rating off 80.

Bottom weight Pamushana is equally one who could have easily more to offer. She is on a potentially very lenient mark after following up on an ultra impressive maiden success with a strong 3rd place in a better class at Nottingham last month. She looks big and scopey, apparently progressing well this season and wit handy weight and draw a big chance in this race.

Pamushana @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
Distain @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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5.10 York: Class 4 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 4f

His most recent Newmarket performance was too bad to be true, so one may forgive Endless Credit that poor run and better judge him on his excellent runner-up performances before. If he could run to that sort of form, he’ll be in with a big chance, given that he has the perfect draw for his positive running style.

A mark off 69 seems high enough, though; yet seen in the contest of the jockey booking, seems less of a problem. Young Fitzpatrick claims valuable 5lb and is very much worth every single pound. He’s riding out of his skin at the moment and is clearly a talented young jockey – that’s a bonus in this type of race.

Endless Credit @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

Sunday Selections – Brighton

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3.50 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Likely softish ground is an unknown for most in this field and could be a big issue for any of the three year olds. None of them makes much appeal from a handicapping point of view either, so I feel it’s worth to take a punt on bottom weight Trulee Scrumptious.

The six year old mare won with plenty in hand two starts ago at Newmarket. She has also form on soft ground and stays ten furlongs truly, which is at Brighton, particularly when there is some juice in the ground. She was poor in her last two starts and has to produced a career best – but may well do so with the possibility of getting a soft lead here.

Trulee Scrumptious @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handica , 1m 4f

The old boy Foxhaven is likely to encounter his preferred conditions tomorrow. 12f with a bit of cut in the ground will slow things down and ensure emphasis is on stamina in the finish. He didn’t have too much racing this season but wasn’t disgraced when last seen in June at Kempton.

He slipped another 2lb down the mark, though. With the 5lb claim of his rider, he could be seriously well handicapped if he can find back to something of his former best. Back in September 2014 he still managed to finish in the money of a mark off 68. So he’s a fair chance to go close in this race.

Foxhaven @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Brighton: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 1m

Double Czech should be clear favourite here given that Queen Aggie, who currently heads the market, has never got this trip before and will find it tough to change this in softish confitions. Double Czech, though, will very much appreciate the underfoot conditions, though the trip is borderline at a testing track like Brighton.

However he is down to an excellent mark, 1lb below when he won a mile race at Chepstow earlier this year, plus has the handy 5lb allowance of a good apprentice in the saddle. He should go close.

Double Czech @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

Sunday Selections: Pontefract

Gordon Lord Byron

What surprising feeling last night – 2 winners! Well, they are more consolation than anything else but nonetheless it’s always good to get some winners on the board. Hopefully a sign for better things to come? There is a great card at Pontefract, so let’s find some winners.

2.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Couple of interesting sorts in this competitive race. Favourite Almodovar makes appeal given that he is sure to appreciate the step up in trip when attempting to win three on the bounce. He may well defy his new mark here but is a very short prices considering the depth of the field.

Fellow “I’m on a hat-trick” More Mischief is an interesting alternative from the bottom of the weights. She looks a grinder and could appreciate the uphill finish. Her wide draw is a slight concern as well as it seems that she may need a bit of cut in the ground to be seen at her best, particularly stepping up in grade now.

The other three year old in the race, Keep In Line, is the most intriguing contender. He’s certainly very well bred and a full-brother to smart Kassiano. He won at Windsor the other day a shade cosily, and the 4lb rise for that effort could easily underestimate him. He has plenty of stamina but seems also speedy, so whatever way the race evolves, he should be equipped.

The wide draw is a concern though. However there aren’t too many in the race who’re likely to storm off to the front, so he may be able to overcome this. He has a very capable 3lb claimer in the saddle too. This horse is certainly overpriced.

Keep In Line @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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3.45 Pontefract: Flying Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 6f

Eddie Lynam won’t bring his classy filly Byzantium over for a nice day out. She has top credentials to win this Listed contast in fact. The three year old was desperately unlucky not to get up on the line in a hot little race at Laas the last time. Conditions will suit today perfectly, as she has a good draw and should appreciate the stiff uphill finish.

Byzantium @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.20 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 

Ultra competitive little Handicap – each and everyone of the six runners has legitimate claims. Therefore I feel La Dorotea is overpriced here given that she wasn’t disgraced in a really hot race at Chester the last time where she had to overcome a wide draw. She was highly tried in Listed class before which was beyond her, when following on from a good course and distance success here at Ponti. She’s only 2lb higher today but has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle.

La Dorotea @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Be Lucky is impossible to oppose here given she is 2/2 over coure and distance and only 3lb above her last winning mark. She has the pole position draw and the speed to move forward from there. A bold bid is expected and if she is in the same mood as the last time she was here, she’s very hard to beat.

Be Lucky @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Saturday Selections: Newbury

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3.10 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

I don’t understand why Beach Bar is such a big price. This progressive gelding absolutely hammered a decent field on his penultimate start and was utterly unlucky the last time at Newmarket when he got stuck in traffic on the inside rail but stayed on very well late when in the clear.

That performance indicates he may can overcome his career highest mark. Today looks a good opportunity for a big run with the trip to suit and the soft ground no inconvinience, which can’t be said for all in this field.

Beach Bar @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.45 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Here Comes When tops the list as the most likely winner. He hasn’t been disgraced in top class company this year and will thrive in these conditions. Same goes for last years winner Breton Rock, although this years renewal looks much stronger.

But from a price perspective I can’t leave Heavens Guest out. He may not be good enough at this level, but has been in outstanding form lately and deserves a go at this. He’ll love the soft ground and is a 7f specialist – he can go close.

Hugely underestimated seems to be That Is The Spirit. He also one who needs it soft and seems best suited to the 7f trip. He won a Listed race in excellent style earlier this year and has excuses for two hist last two poor showings.

That Is The Spirit @ 22/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Heavens Guest @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Wednesday Selections: Man Of Harlech’s a Big Runner

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Up In Lights is potentially very well handicapped on his debut in this company, and the weight for age allowance is a clear bonus. He may well hack up. But I believe there is massive value on Man Of Harlech, who could be a very potent threat here.

This will be the third run after a long break, during which he was gelded. He clearly needed his first run but was quite unlucky the next time at Sandown when poorly positioned and a clear run denied. However he finished very strongly with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

He drops in grade now, and this potentially easier opposition should help him to defy top weight. He is very nicely bred and comes from a family that does exceptionally well on the All-Weather. So the switch to this surface can be only in his favour today. At 9/2 he is an excellent alternative to the rather shortish favourite in my mind.

Man Of Harlech @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Betting: Saturday Selections

Legatissimo

Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you’re back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today – hopefully ending it on a high note.

2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark.

Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair.

I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn’t expect and deem as too big.

Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred – 10pts Win