Tag Archives: Selections

Betting

Wednesday Selections: October, 17th 2018

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5.05 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m3½f

The form that Doctor Knox has produced in three starts looks underappreciated as he steps into handicap company for the first time. Both his final start as a juvenile and most recent performance in a Novice race at Kempton are way better than the bare form suggests, in my mind.

Both times he was a long way beaten, however in front of him a few excellent individual, and those forms work out quite well. On his comeback run last month Doctor Knox made a bold move from a wide draw right from the start to challenge for the lead.

He paid the price for it behind two superior horses that where also up with the pace. The eventual winner has franked the form with a credible effort in Listed company already, and the runner-up was behind high class performers in previous starts also.

Doctor Knox kept going, though, and held on for third place. Now in his first handicap, a mark of 70 looks potentially underestimating him.

Selection:
10pts win – Doctor Knox @ 9/1 MB

……..

7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Nursery, 6f

Gainsborough Hat looks a likely improver on his first handicap start. He didn’t set the world alight in three starts so far, but an opening mark off 64 doesn’t look too far fetched given he is well bred.

The son of Exceed And Excel should be well suited to the All-Weather as his sire has an excellent record on the sand, particularly over sprint distances, plus he is out of a Listed placed and All-Weather winning mare.

Selection:
10pts win – Gainsborough Hat @ 9/1 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: October, 14th, 2018

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4.55 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The Daley Express is already a course and distance winner and will enjoy any bit of additional rain falling between now and off time. He’s won well earlier this year off a similar handicap mark at Bath over 5.5f, granted not a race that looks particularly strong judged by subsequent form.

Nonetheless, the four year old gelding ran well in defeat on numerous occasions in the aftermath – without troubling the judges, it has to be said, though.

However, slowly he drops down to a decent mark now. Franny Norton is in the saddle; he’s boosting a 26.3% strike rate when riding for trainer Ronald Harris.

In a race where little stands out, The Daley Express looks one of the more likely sorts to put his nose in front today. With conditions to suit a big run is expected.

Selection:
10pts win – The Daley Express @ 14/1 PP

Betting

Sunday Selections: September, 30th 2018

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4.10 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

A competitive 7f handicap as you would expect it that leaves it open for an upset. Nonetheless I feel top weight and fancied Dourada could have all the right answers today.

The colt is a two times course and distance winner, who ran well in defeat in a number of races this year. That says his last two efforts – both came over CD – were below par, although he had some fair excuses four weeks ago.

Now down to a mark off 80 again – a rating he came as close as a neck and was arguably a bit unlucky due to his positioning and the way the race was run when runner-up at Goodwood back in May – Dourada will encounter ideal conditions today.

This race also looks slightly easier in terms of rivals encountered compared to most of the other handicaps he contested this season. There is the added bonus of an excellent 3lb claimer on board to steer the four-year-old home today.

Selection:
10pts win – Dourada @ 5/1 PP

Betting

Saturday Selection: September, 1st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

New trainer and only his third run this year, Global Applause has plenty to prove today. Particularly as he has top weight to shoulder as well.

On the other hand, he drops in class into a race that may well be as competitive in nature as most of the others he ran in the past but arguably an easier one. Down to a mark of 97 it remains to be seen if he is up to it these days.

On past form, having run to a career highest time speed rating of 98 and 90+ on more occasions, Global Applause has surely got a fine chance. He was a smart juvenile, lightly raced as a three year old and certainly no disgraced when a less than two lengths beaten 5th in a red hot Doncaster Handicap of a mark off 98 in his final run in 2017.

This year has seen him back to form on his seasonal reappearance when runner-up at Newbury, though it is his most recent run at that very same venue back in May that has left big questions to answer.

Drop in class, drop in trip and back at Sandown with a bit of juice in the ground is hopefully enough to see Global Applause find back to his best.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Applause @ 11/1 MB

……

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 31st 2018

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4.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Leigh’s Law won a shade cozily on handicap debut a fortnight ago. Making all from the front, he ran his rivals into the ground and was able to pull out more and more when the tough questions were asked.

The travelled really well in what was described as good to soft ground, so today’s conditions shouldn’t pose a problem.

A 3lb hike in the mark is fair enough. Here’s hoping the small step up in trip help Leigh’s Law, as he seemed t keep galloping strongly in the closing stages. Natural improvement on what will only be his fifth career start could see him overcoming this task.

Selection:
10pts win – Leigh’s Law @ 14/1 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 24th 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

5.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 5f

Bottom weight Sister’s Act sparks my interest here. This Equiano filly has shown early speed in her few starts before, totally unfancied though, it wasn’t a surprise so her finish flat.

She now makes her handicap debut off a low mark in a not overly competitive contest switching to the All-Weather which should suit her better on pedigree. Her mother is a winner on the sand as daddy Equiano has a sublime record on the All-Weather with his 2yo offspring over sprint trips, particular on left handed tracks.

Interestingly, trainer Peter Hedger’s record with juveniles on the All-Weather is also quite excellent (small sample size, but fits in well with his general performance in AW Handicaps).

With that in mind there is every chance Siser’s Act gets her act together today.

Selection:
10pts win – Sister’s Act @ 16/1 VC

Betting

Wednesday Selections: August, 22nd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.50 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Impart has slipped dramatically in the weights having one last year of an 18lb higher mark. He has ran well a handful of times, though. Most notably in June over course and distance off 5lb higher than his now career lowest rating.

That form looks rock solid and a similar showing today would see Impart go really close. His latest run is concerning, though. Twelve days ago he was here at Brighton a long way beaten over 5.5f – his worst performance in his last six outings.

This is not a particularly strong contest today, on the other hand. Returning to 6f should help while the going isn’t an issue.

Selection:
10pts win – Impart @ 7/2 MB

……..

5.10 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Despite being on a losing streak of 13 consecutive runs, judged by two of his three runs this year Red Gunner is on a winnable mark right now. He was unlucky not to get closer than third last time at Lingfield and the handicapper has given him a big chance leaving the mark untouched.

He was slowly into stride that day, then travelled powerfully, but ultimately didn’t get the breaks when needed and got going on the outside to late. Once steered into the clear, Red Gunner thundered home from the back of the field.

This, as well as his less than two lengths beaten 5th at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance as well as debut for the Loughnane yard appears to be competitive form that is strong enough to see him as a major runner here today.

Selection:
10pts win – Red Gunner @ 7/2 PP

……

8.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Treacherous has been twice a CD winner this summer already. He’s been slightly regressive in his next three starts. However, he travelled supremely well last time out at Sandown despite pulling hard through the first half of the race, looking the likely winner, just to tire in inside the final furlong.

I still rate it a big performance and a return to Kempton should see him in better light. He achieved a TS of 71 when winning here in June, so only 2lb higher, there is still a possibility, particularly in this grade, that he can find a bit more as it also is still only his eight career start on the All-Weather, of which he won three and placed in another one.

It’s noteworthy that jockey Pat Cosgrave makes the journey to Kempton for this single ride. He’s also steered Treacherous already to success in the past.

Selection:
10pts win – Treacherous @ 6/1 Sky

Betting

Saturday Selections: July, 21st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.25 Newbury: Class 2 Handicap, 16.5f

Bottom weight Almoghared drops down into this right from an excellent performance in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot – form that has been franked by the superb winner subsequently.

Almoghared didn’t have a chance but until the final furlong marker was still right in the game. He probably isn’t quite up to that standard and doesn’t look a fast horse. So the step up to this marathon trip on handicap debut looks a good move.

The jury is out, however. His maiden win at Chepstow is worth nothing, though he was incredibly green that day and today marks only his fourth career start. Given Almoghared is superbly well bred there is every chance he can pull out more against older horses now, leveraging a handy WFA allowance.

Selection:
10pts win – Almoghared @ 6/1 PP

…….

5.50 Ripon: Class 5 Maiden Handicap, 6f

Cobalty Isle must have a cracking chance if he can find back to anything close of his best form. He’s dropped dramatically in the mark after a string of bad performances, though noteworthy he was an excellent 4th in a red hot Wolverhampton Handicap back in March of a 9lb higher mark than today.

He showed promise as as a juvenile, ran to a TS rating of 61 on debut and poses a top RPR of 78. He must go close here with conditions to suit.

That is if there isn’t anything totally wrong with him. Cheek-pieces and tongue tie applied the last time are a concern. The same headgear is on today. Nonetheless at given prices he is a cracking value bet in my book – if he can find back some form.

Selection:
10pts win – Cobalty Isle @ 16/1 VC

……

6.30 Haydock: Novice Stakes, 7f

Line Of Duty is the obvious one here, but he is a super short price. Also an expensive yearling is Massam, though, who equally was not quite the luckiest one as Line Of Duty was on their respective debuts.

Massam showed allot of greenness at Chelmsford earlier this month after getting tied up in a battle for the early speed right after the start. He didn’t get the clearest of runs turning for home either and was hanging toward the far rail in the home straight too.

He should have learned plenty that day and has allot of scope to improve dramatically for that experience. Whether he is quite good enough to be beat the favourite remains to be seen.

Selection:
10pts win – Massam @ 6/1 MB

……

7.30 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

Things have slowed down a bit for excellent apprentice Ger O’Neill but it looks significant that he has this one ride today on veteran Save The Bees who has dropped to a tasty mark after a rather poor campaign this year so far.

However, down to a mark of 72, with conditions to suit and a visor r-fitted to sharpen him up, Save The Bees looks dangerous if he can find a bit of form. The 5lb claimed by O’Neill are worth every single pound, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the ten year old gelding in the shake up tonight.

Selection:
10pts win – Save The Bees @ 14/1 PP

……

7.45 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Competitive race where a case can be made for pretty much all of these. I feel Ralf Beckett’s gelding Raskolnikov is overpriced, though on the back of one poor effort when he had excuses last time.

Judged by his first two career starts at Bath beforehand, on the other hand, his form does not look too different from what the market leaders have achieved to date.

This son of Excelebration has nicely improved from a physical point of view since his debut and his fourth and fifth place finishes in April and May where quite good form given how those races have worked out since then.

An opening mark of 67 could underestimate his true merit now stepping up to more suitable 6f also.

Selection:
10pts win – Raskolnikov @ 6/1 PP

………

8.30 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Sitar hasn’t been firing in a light campaign to date, however she drops to a dangerous mark 3lb lower than her last winning mark. Conditions are unlikely to pose an issue, despite her two career wins achieved with a bit of cut in the ground.

She has the assistance of red hot Ben Curtis and offers much better value than odds-on favourite Boundary Lane.

Selection:
10pts win – Sitar @ 6/1 PP

Betting

Friday Selections: July, 20th 2018

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5.35 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

For all that favourite Gravina has achieved up until now she is simply an awful price. Ryan Moore in the saddle gives the filly a fair chance, no doubt, but I struggle to see why she is 11/8.

Luca Cumani’s filly Floria Tosca appeals much more. Bred for the job, she makes her handicap debut after three more or less decent qualifying runs. Judged by her second start at Chelmsford, though, she could be well treated off her opening mark.

That form worked out incredibly well but she couldn’t follow-up at Bath when stepping up to 11.5f. Tracking a slightly too fast pace she didn’t quite see out the trip in the end, but her 3rd place finish looks good form regardless, judged through the winner of the race.

Now back over 10f on handicap debut with the French master Gerald Mosse in the saddle I feel she has a bit more to offer than the 73 rating she’s been given.

Selection:
10pts win – Floria Tosca @ 9/2 PP

……….

8.45 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Fieldsman is on an incredibly long losing run and doesn’t seem to get closer to change this on the face of his form. Looking a bit deeper into his races this year it looks more like that he ran quite consistently well most of the time, however.

His runs at Doncaster or Redcar in June give him a fairly decent chance to go really close in this race here, I feel. A mark off 68 is something he clearly is up to these days, possibly a bit more than that.

He ran to RPR’s of this sort or higher on six of his eight starts this year and with no three year old in this contest but with the assistance of top man Jim Crowley on the back may finally get his head in front again.

Selection:
10pts win – Fieldsman @ 12/1 WH/PP/VC

Betting

Wednesday Selections: July, 11th 2018

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4.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 2 miles

A wide open long distance handicap that could go the way of featherweight Kittileo. Only eight stone to carry, the sole three year old in the race has a massive chance to win on what is his fifth career start – if he stays the trip and acts on the fast ground.

He showed promise on occasions, but I feel the Mark Johnston runner might come over these marathon trips into his own. His pedigree gives him any chance to improve and Galileo’s have a tremendous record here at Catterick over this sort of trip.

Receiving weight all around, Kittileo has the added advantage of a good draw, which even over longer trips, can make a difference here at Catterick. Given, he has shown to be enjoy the lead in his runs same tactics will surely be employed here as well at a course where those up with the pace have always a big advantage.

Selection:
10pts win – Kittileo @ 13/2 GB