5.35 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
For all that favourite Gravina has achieved up until now she is simply an awful price. Ryan Moore in the saddle gives the filly a fair chance, no doubt, but I struggle to see why she is 11/8.
Luca Cumani’s filly Floria Tosca appeals much more. Bred for the job, she makes her handicap debut after three more or less decent qualifying runs. Judged by her second start at Chelmsford, though, she could be well treated off her opening mark.
That form worked out incredibly well but she couldn’t follow-up at Bath when stepping up to 11.5f. Tracking a slightly too fast pace she didn’t quite see out the trip in the end, but her 3rd place finish looks good form regardless, judged through the winner of the race.
Now back over 10f on handicap debut with the French master Gerald Mosse in the saddle I feel she has a bit more to offer than the 73 rating she’s been given.
10pts win – Floria Tosca @ 9/2 PP
8.45 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Fieldsman is on an incredibly long losing run and doesn’t seem to get closer to change this on the face of his form. Looking a bit deeper into his races this year it looks more like that he ran quite consistently well most of the time, however.
His runs at Doncaster or Redcar in June give him a fairly decent chance to go really close in this race here, I feel. A mark off 68 is something he clearly is up to these days, possibly a bit more than that.
He ran to RPR’s of this sort or higher on six of his eight starts this year and with no three year old in this contest but with the assistance of top man Jim Crowley on the back may finally get his head in front again.
10pts win – Fieldsman @ 12/1 WH/PP/VC