Tag Archives: Kempton

Tuesday Selections – Kempton Park

Dundalk All-Weather

4.15 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

This is an intriguing contest with a handful of promising contenders. Dramatically improving Ian’s Memory tops the market and despite not being flashy, he may just does enough to win and could still have more to offer. Though the handicappers doesn’t take any prisoners with him.

Exchequer loves the All-Weather and the track. He’s consistent. This big, scopey gelding should make good of a perfect draw. Claim The Roses ran a massive race the last time behind subsequent Great St Wilfrid Handicap Don’t Touch. I’m slightly concerned about his wide draw though.

Windy Citi won with bit in hand the other day, the drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem. Lightly raced Mulzamm will appreciate this trip more than 6f on pedigree. Whether he is good enough against this field remains to be seen.

Most of those mentioned above are decent prices. Hard to distinguish them. The one certainly overpriced is Dutiful Son, though. Well bred, impressive 6f winner at Chelmsford in April, he was not seen to best effect over 1m the last two starts. Way, way too far off the pace on his penultimate run, and also not in the best position the last time when third behind Windy City. The trip may also stretch him.

The drop to 7f looks ideal, however and I would assume him to be ridden much positive from a healthy draw. It’s Nicky Mackay’s only ride on the day – it could be a good one.

Dutiful Son @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Melodica may well have too much to offer for this lot but it is such a poor race hat I feel it is worth to side with bottom weight Saumur who has the chance to improve for the new trip big time. She looked one-paced in her last two starts over 10f but did reasonably well considering the horses she competed against.

On pedigree she should really relish the 12f distance and won’t mind the All-Weather surface. It could bring out enough improvement to see her go close in this field off her light weight.

Saumur @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Gelded Commodore can Improve big time

Kilimanjaro

8.10 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap ,7f

Tricky affair but freshly gelded Commodore could be the answer, despite a bad draw. He was unlucky not to win at Sandown on his penultimate start. Subsequently failed to deliver off his revised mark at Newmarket, though didn’t have the run of the race going for himself.

He can be better than that and now switched to the All-Weather should suit. Going against older horses shouldn’t be an issue but the weight for age allowance can make a huge difference in a race that lacks depth. He probably doesn’t need to improve allot to be in the shake-up, but the fact that sons of Kodiac often show dramatic improvements for being gelded, there is every chance he can be a big runner tonight.

Commodore @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Wednesday Selections: Man Of Harlech’s a Big Runner

Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Up In Lights is potentially very well handicapped on his debut in this company, and the weight for age allowance is a clear bonus. He may well hack up. But I believe there is massive value on Man Of Harlech, who could be a very potent threat here.

This will be the third run after a long break, during which he was gelded. He clearly needed his first run but was quite unlucky the next time at Sandown when poorly positioned and a clear run denied. However he finished very strongly with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

He drops in grade now, and this potentially easier opposition should help him to defy top weight. He is very nicely bred and comes from a family that does exceptionally well on the All-Weather. So the switch to this surface can be only in his favour today. At 9/2 he is an excellent alternative to the rather shortish favourite in my mind.

Man Of Harlech @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

Plutocracy Can Win Fresh

Iron Major Dundalk

This week didn’t started as I would have hoped – Starshaped made a mess of his race right at the start on Monday night. The widest draw is never easy but he was lazily out of the box, caught wide, way to far off the pace eventually and had zero chance. He stayed on very well, but clearly lacked focus. He needs blinkers I guess and will be of massive interest the next time once again – if headgear is fitted.

8.45 Kempton: Handicap (Class 3), 1m 4f

This race looks to be between the top two in the betting. You can forgive Majeed’s recent poor showing at Newmarket. He is better judged on the impressive performance here at Kempton before. However I feel the additional furlong today as well as the much bigger weight will make life tough and he’s easily oppose for that reason, particularly given his short price.

No doubt Plutocracy is a very talented, but also fragile individual. He had only ten career starts to date, which is low mileage for a fife year old. That says he’s best fresh anyway, his record clearly indicates that. I think you can draw a line under his Doncaster performance in November when last seen. Testing ground was never to suit. He run with loads of credit the other two times last season, though.

Off a handy mark today, he has a major chance in this field if he is fit and ready to go. Th trip is no issue and the All-Weather shouldn’t be one either. The yard is going well and the trainer/jockey combo has a 35% strike rate over the last twelve month – Plutocracy looks overpriced today.

Plutocracy @ 4/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Kempton: Exciting Majeed Bound To Progress!

Dundalk All-Weather

Dundalk seems to become a happy hunting ground these days – Cape Wolfe travelled all over the opposition and won it quite easily in the end. A nice 12/1 winner… much needed! The Ger Lyons inmate is Royal Ascot bound now.

7.40 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 3f

The flat season is in full flight, yet we have some really interesting racing on Kempton’s All-Weather tonight. This intriguing Class 3 Handicap for four year olds and older horses appears to be an open enough contest with seven out of the ten runners having previously won at this venue.

The betting suggests Andre Balding’s lightly raced Smiling Stranger is the one to beat and won’t lack fitness after 291 days off the track. He showed some promise in maidens last year, though was found out for class on his handicap debut. Gelded over the winter, he could be one with plenty of improvement to come, given a fair handicap mark. Personally I wouldn’t like to be on him at 5/2 though. Despite all the positives there are also a couple of question marks and such a short price doesn’t represent value in my eyes.

Equally lightly raced Majeed didn’t show any rustiness to land a Chelmsford Handicap in March coming off a 1½ year long break. The five year old had obvious problems in the past but looked big and strong at Chelmsford. He travelled off the pace and had plenty enough to do 2f out but really motored home in impressive style. Only 3lb up, with a very useful 5lb claimer in the saddle today, he looks a major player with further improvement likely to come off a potentially lenient mark.

From the former course winners, Double Discount can’t be ruled out. He’s weighted to be competitive if he is back to his best. Jacob Cats won a CD Handicap in March and on that form must rate a danger. The Gay Cavalier loves it around Kempton and should be a big runner if he can bounce back from his last poor run. All-Weather specialist Troopingthecolour is rated below his last winning mark but has to find back some form. First time cheek-pieces may help him. All of these have plenty of questions to answer, though.

Verdict: I like the favourite’s profile. If Smiling Stranger is fit after the break, he could be hard to beat off a fair mark now as a gelding. But from a value perspective lightly raced Majeed makes more appeal. He’s also on a very fair mark and has the assistance of a very good apprentice, which effectively sees him racing off 2lb lower than when winning at Chelmsford. I was really impressed with that performance and 9/2 looks a big price in this field.

Majeed @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Mr Bossy Boots can make feather weight count

An intriguing race that brings proven top class handicappers with progressive & lightly raced individuals together. At the top of the ratings is classy Outback Traveller who has a huge weight to defy. On pure class he is the one they all have to beat – but I feel the improving Mr Bossy Boots is probably the one they all have to fear most.

He has the benefit of a feather weight because he is the lowest rated horse in the race, but this lightly raced colt looks to have much more on the plate than the ratings suggest. He was very impressive a very impressive winner at Lingfield in January, when he looked still very green and raw, was pulling hard but surged clear with ease in the closing stages. Obviously he has to step up markedly in class today, but the handicapper’s 5lb hike in the mark for this most recent triumph has been lenient in my mind. That says Mr Bossy Boots could be a good deal ahead of this mark and must have a major chance today.

Also improving and an impressive winner was Speculative Bid. He looked in a completely different class than his rivals in a class 4 Handicap here at Kempton. He has been hit with a big hike in the mark, but looks well up to it. Though very much up in class, he may not get a smooth a ride through this time. Same may apply for Ninjago who won well first time blinkered over CD recently, but had it all going for himself.

2.15 Kempton: Class 2 Handicap, 7 furlongs:
Mr Bossy Boots @ 4/1 Coral – 5pts win

Enlance dangerous on All-Weather debut

Godolphin is red hot on the All-Weather and for that simple reason you have to respect the favourite Hollie Point who finally got off the mark on the ninth attempt over course and distance when fitted with blinkers for the first time a fortnight ago. An opening mark of 80 looks fair and she may well has more to offer, but for all of that, she hasn’t beaten much the last time and looks a very short price.

Dark War looks a solid enough gelding and has fair form to offer, though more is required here and there might not be too much more to come. Jaganory doesn’t look good enough to land this, while Caltra Colleen is an interesting filly with potential, but she has been off the track for a very long time and the drift in the market is a worry.

Mark Johnston has his string in excellent form lately and does particularly well with three year olds. That gives confidence in the chance of Enlace, who has her first start this season. She die very well in the early days of her career when she followed up on her fine debut win with a strong runner-up effort in a hot Newmarket Nursery. She was unable to confirm that form subsequently, but a break may have done her well and on pedigree it looks likely that she can progress with age as well as the step up to 7f should suit. As a Shamardal daughter she should take well to the All-Weather.

In my eyes Enlace is the value against the favourite in this field where on merit it should be between the first two in the market. Money is floating in for the Johnston filly and 11/4 looks a very good price here.

8.15 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Enlace @ 11/4 William Hill – 10pts win