Thursday Selections: February, 1st 2018

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Ending January with a bang – Jack The Truth (9/2) won the lucky last at Chelmsford in fine style. Bringing the total for the first month of 2018 to seven winners and a profit of 325pts for a 95.59% ROI!

That says, it was Cosmelli, the 33/1 shot  at Southwell, who clearly made January the excellent month it was – thankfully, after so many other big prices were hitting the post. Onwards and upwards…

…..

1.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Pretty much a week ago I put Archimedes up to win a similar race over CD – I’ll do it again, despite the 5-year old gelding having been a flop that day – at least judged on pure form.

However, there were plenty of positives to take from the race, which was his first one after a 99-day-long lay-off, seeing him undergoing wind surgery during that time.

So, Archimedes was probably entitled to tire as he eventually did a week ago, while looking threatening all the way until the final furlong marker.

Again, he has the luxury of the prime draw in 1 – as mentioned in my preview the other day, Archimedes is for many reasons – not only the positive draw – an intriguing individual.

For one, he is a course and distance winner – last January he won this exact race off 3lb higher than his current handicap rating. He ran to a whopping RPR of 70 that day (in the context of his official rating).

He backed this up later in the year on turf at Bath on fast ground over 5f, when winning off the same mark running to a similar RPR.

Problems started soon after. He missed plenty of assignments and ran mostly poorly. That when they identified the wind as an issue and he got the OP and break.

Archimedes drops into a weaker race, from a competitive class 5 into this very winnable class 6 handicap. He meets the winner his comeback race again – Something Lucky attempts the four-timer. He may well have still something in hand, judging how easily he did it a week ago – but has not the advantage of a low draw this time.

Selection:
10pts win – Archimedes @ 7/1 Bet365

…….

7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3f

Another one I was keen on earlier this month: Azam, when he ran over 14f at Wolverhampton recently; on the back of some decent performances in really hot races with form working out quite well, off a dropping mark he looked ripped to win a race himself.

In fact, he travelled like the winner turning for home, hard on the bridle, but then when in the midst of unleashing it all, got badly interfered and lost all momentum subsequently.

In truth, he probably wouldn’t have won regardless, as the trip is probably a bit too far, however he was every chance robbed to do better than he eventually did, after going so well for so long.

Azam drops in trip to potentially very suitable 11f while also dropping another couple of pounds in his handicap rating. This gives him a tremendous chance I believe – he looks incredibly well handicapped now, off a career lowest mark, as one should not forget he performed okaish enough of marks in the 80’s on the flat last summer.

Only judged on his recent All-Weather form he also must have a huge chance, running to RPR’s of 75, 82, 76 and 79 in his last four races, while three back matched a 75 time speed figure, too!

Selection:
10pts win – Azam @ 11/2 GB

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