The eyecatchers win…. but I don’t back them. It pains me that travelling for work all week didn’t leave any time to dig into racing. it meant I missed a number of winners from the current All-Weather eye-catcher list.
But if it’s not possible to analyse a race properly, I won’t have a bet. Simple as that. No bet = no money lost, which isn’t a bad thing, in any case.
Seeing the horses run well gives me solace that the work put in has been solid. Though, you never know whether that continues to be the case, of course.
I try to make up ground on Friday. Although, the selections are much bigger prices than I would have envisioned. That could be good or a bad thing….
In saying that, I still hope racing goes ahead, because even if they run badly, it means they got a run, at the very least, and the may even better handicapped the next time.
4.25 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
I am conflicted in this one as there is four possible choices and all four have reasonable claims. I’d feel ready to support in isolation. But the strongest chance could be Surprise Picture from a good draw to attack the race dropped to 7 furlongs again.
His last three runs have all been noteworthy and eye-catching but certainly not economical rides that gave the gelding not the best chance of winning.
He drops another pound after a strong 4th place last week over 8.5f at Wolverhampton. He didn’t get home, but ran to 65 speed rating, once more confirming his excellent form.
Down to 7 furlongs again, as he ran two back at Wolverhampton when arguably a bit unlucky, he ran multiple times to speed ratings 68 plus this year, as well.
There doesn’t seem to be too much proper pace to compete against he wants to, almost certainly, move forward from a solid #6 draw.
10pts win – Surprise Picture @ 13/1
5.25 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
I was keen on Saturday when Lucky Lucky Lucky had an entry over 6 furlongs at Newcastle, before the meeting was called off, and remain interested, although would have preferred to see him race over the shorter trip
But I still think he’s got an strong chance over 7 furlongs, too, in a race as poor as this, if this lad is allowed to run on merit, i.e. the handbrake is off, and he’s trained to be fit.
Granted, on the surface it requires a little bit of imagination, when checking the form of It’s clearly there to see, though – in my eyes, at least.
For one: while not an eye-catching performance at first glance, his most recent run over 7 furlongs at Newcastle noteworthy. For the simple fact that the gelding broke well and travelled enthusiastically, with his ears pricked, up with a solid pace early on. This isn’t your typical 17-race maiden with attitude issues.
Going back to August, on turf, at Redcar, he finished a strong third. That day over 6 furlongs, he got badly hampered in the closing stages and a clear run denied. He probably wins it if he gets a clear passage. He showed a lovely attitude that day, in my view
His more recent performances were obviously really poor runs on paper. But I believe there is enough to see a horses with sufficient appetite for the game.
In any case, Lucky Lucky Lucky is down to a mark of 49 now. Dropped another 3lb since the last Newcastle run. Although I was really curious to see him over 6 furlongs, there is not too much concern that he can’t stay stay further on pedigree as a full-brother to a listed placed Dundalk mare (1m).
Speed ratings suggest he could (should) be well handicapped now. First time blinkers are tried. It may help to sharpen him up. The jockey booking is a slight concern. Alex Jary simply doesn’t ride many winners. Nonetheless, he looks solid in the saddle visually, but largely sits on horses with no hope.
It’s different here. Lucky Lucky Lucky has plenty of hope. The additional 7lb claim, which looks good value, make the 3-year-old gelding an great chance on handicapping terms.
10pts win – Lucky Lucky Lucky @ 15/1
8.15Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Sense Of Security has been in tremendous form in her last starts. Although I tend to avoid fillies and mares during the winter as all data points to them underperforming during this period on the All-Weather, this filly ran to near career best speed ratings in her last two runs.
She caught the eye during the flat campaign earlier this year, and entered my list in October when she returned from a wind operation at Kempton over 6 furlongs.
That day she was badly bumped and squeezed right after the start, was keen in the early parts of the race, possibly as a consequence. She made good progress from 3 furlongs out, kicks well in the home straight and found plenty. The winner from the front was not for catching, and well on top, though.
She followed up a fortnight ago at Chelmsford with another huge run, finishing strongly, against the pace bias.
She ran to speed ratings 57 and 58 in those two runs, which means off her 57 handicap mark she is handicapped to go seriously close. The bonus is the step up to 7 furlongs. I believe she always struggles over the shorter trip when the pace is hot.
Obviously as a maiden after 15 runs you never can be quite sure. But I firmly believe that if her wind is okay, she will really enjoy this trip
Should be handicapped to win. Probably more so over 7 furlongs. 6 furlongs isn’t impossible, because she really kicked hard here – I really rate this performance. Class could see her through an easier race over the shorter trip off a career lowest mark.
10pts win – Sense Of Security @ 6/1