Huge run by Inquisitively to finish a gallant 3rd in the Windsor Castle today. Another big price hitting the post but the ball didn’t get over the line, sadly.
Bay Bridge didn’t get the best of runs but never looked like he could challenge anyway. Wen Moon was an ugly watch. Graham Lee gave the gelding a shocking ride, willingly or unwillingly…. Azaim a big drifter and beaten early.
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5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes, 1m
As competitive as it gets, yet I feel quite strong about Physique, who looks seriously overpriced if he could settle in the early stages.
That’s the key question as he moves up in trip again. There’s enough to believe the trip won’t be an issue stamina wise, especially the way he finished last time out.
But he can be keen early on, and that would be a deadly sin in this race. His young rider doesn’t have all that much experience, either. There is a clear risk.
On the other hand, plenty of pace looks to be present in this field. It should be a fast race, and that will suit Physique, who should have a solid chance from the #8 draw to get into a prominent position, as he likes to be, normally.
I hope connections don’t opt for an experiment where they hold him up, in the hope to preserve his stamina. If that is the case you can turn off the TV after the first two furlongs. It’s another risk, worth taking at the price, though.
Physique couldn’t have been more impressive earlier this month at Goodwood, which was a superb follow-up from an already excellent performance a month earlier over the same course and distance.
He got caught wide and without cover from the highest draw and as a consequence struggled to find cover pretty much for the majority of the race.
The gelding was clearly lit up and his chances decimated by the halfway mark. He also was ever so slightly impeded by a tiering front-runner from 2 furlongs out before he finished extremely strongly – in fact, he ran home the fastest over the last two furlongs, regardless.
It’s fair to say with a better draw and a little bit more in-running luck, he would have won. Still lightly raced, Physique has the scope to continue his progress, especially off his current 91 handicap mark.
He has shown to handle fast ground without a problem, so drying conditions aren’t a worry. He looks ideally suited to this type of test, if the pace is on and is most likely well-handicapped.
10pts win – Physique @ 35/1
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5.35 Ascot: Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes, 1m 2f
I’m a fan of Epictetus, and not only because of his name. An incredibly consistent colt, he ran to 93, 97 and 91 speed ratings this year in his three runs and mixed it with strong opposition the last two times.
He may struggle to win a Group 1, but down in class he’s a massive runner over a course and distance, on possibly perfect ground.
However, this is a competitive renewal of the race. Progressive Drumroll has to give weight away but will be suited by the likely strong pace.
Torito is another serious prospect for the Gosden yard. Lightly raced, progressive and a fine winner of a hot Handicap at Epsom earlier this month.
Caernarfon ran a super race in the Oaks to finish a strong third. The drop in trip is likely to suit her and she looks competitive against the males down in grade.
The likes of unexposed Expolanet, or Kevin Ryan’s Heron Stakes winner Captain Winter can’t be easily dismissed either.
One who I feel is almost certain to enjoy the test, and appears overpriced, is Waipiro, though.
He endured a disaster of a run in the Derby where he was slowly away, as a consequence was caught behind a wall of horses, trailed the field and had to come around very wide for a run on the outside.
He made excellent progress from 4f out around Tattenham Corner, before his effort fizzled out from 2f out, somewhat understandably.
There is also every possibility that he didn’t get the trip, in any case. Though, I thought he actually confirmed the promise he showed at Newmarket earlier this season where he kicked on in fine style to win a Novice Stakes, before he finished a strong runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Whether he’s a genuine Group 1 horse remains to be seen. He could be underestimated, though, and certainly seems to be underappreciated in the betting in this easier grade as he drops down to 10 furlongs.
He ran to a 97 speed rating at Lingfield also. That stands up seriously well in this field. Yes, others could improve past that, though not too many look potentially capable of that, right now, at least. While Waipiro himself is open to improvement over this trip.
10pts win – Waipiro @ 12/1
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5.45 Leopardstown: 47-70 Handicap, 7f
This could be a great opportunity for Punk Poet, who seems overpriced. He drops in grade, this is much easier than all his races this year, over a trip he has no issue with and on ground likely to suit.
He dropped significantly in the ratings over last weeks and is down to a dangerously low 69 handicap mark now. There are clear and obvious reasons for that, though, I felt he hinted a return to some form a few times as well.
Back in April in a hot race over 6 furlongs he travelled strongly and finished well, and last month at the Curragh in a super competitive Apprentice Handicap he showed his usual good early speed and ran well until fading badly from 2 furlongs out in deep ground.
Leopardstown tomorrow should ride a bit better, and that will suit. The pace doesn’t look too hot, so from #8 draw he should be able to move across easily to have an ideal spot behind likely pace setter Maggie And Me or Turbine.
If Punk Poet could find anything close to last summers form in these conditions then he’s a big danger to all.
Last year he won off 82 and 83, also ran to an 82 speed rating. He’s versatile ground- and distance wise but probably 7 furlongs is his optimum.
It needed a 33/1 winner to break this most annoying losing run. Thanks to Royal Champion (16/1 SP) who travelled as wide as sweetly through the race and won, despite carrying a penalty, like a horse in a different league to the rest.
A confident, no-nonsense ride by Jack Mitchell. He seemed to have clear instructions to avoid trouble at all costs. And so he did.
That means my rotten run of 31 conseqeuitive losing selections is over. One more and it would have been the longest losing run ever for me.
It’s a funny game. Some big prices knocked on the door lately. Including Bucanero Fuerte earlier on Tuesday, with a great run for 3rd in the Coventry. But it wasn’t to be. Never mind. Today is a good day.
Also back in profit for the month, of course. Which is the most important thing. Always.
I would hope things turn back to some form of normality now, because they were not normal lately. I haven’t been doing anything fundamentally different and liked most selections, even with the blessing of hindsight.
One a different note: all eyes are on Royal Ascot this week, naturally. My eyes were on the announcement for the final field for the Durban July that took place this morning as well, though. The big race is less than two weeks away.
Final runners, weights and the draw were announced. The draw played a lesser role in the past, though. Class found a way.
Therefore, the #14 draw for Safe Passage – the one I fancy strongly – is less of a negative, as maybe even a blessing in disguise, as it may ensure now that there is actually a price available for him on the day that makes me want to back him.
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4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Small but select field for this renewal of the POW. Questions evolve around the pace. Who’s going to do the donkey work?
Luxembourg showed he can make it all, if needed. But it may fall to Classic Causeway who has shown plenty of good early speed in the US and he may find it hard not to pull his way to the front over this trip, if no other rival moves decisively forward early on.
Last years Belmont Derby winner could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead from the front, though, given his excellent speed. Although, the ground may not be quite fast enough for him and if all things go normal, he simply shouldn’t have the class.
2021 Derby hero Adayar returned successfully to the track at Newmarket in the Gordon Richards a few weeks ago. He confirmed his wellbeing. He ran a huge race in the Champion Stakes back in October, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
If he can run to a similar level of form as a 5-year-old then he’s firmly in the mix. On the other hand, in those five runs since his impressive Epsom success, his best speed rating achieved is a rather lowly 90 – for this grade at least.
My Prospero has hinted plenty of ability throughout his career and was arguably an unfortunate runner-up in the St James’s Palace twelve months ago. He’s yet to convince on speed ratings, though, hence may be found out against the very best here, as otherwise a massive career-best would be required.
Mostahdaf looks a bit short of class as well, if it coms to winning a Group 1. He deserves to be here and take his chance, but doesn’t seem to be top-class.
The same could not be said about Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, as they are multiple Group 1 winners. They meet here once again after their exciting fight in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh earlier this year.
Luxembourg got the better that day. He was forced to make all with no other pace in the race. He ensured that this was not a test of speed but rather a proper race to the line as evidence by his strong 110 speed rating – a career-best for the colt.
He looked a bit awkward in the closing stages, as he tends to do. At the same time he was brave and gutsy, fending off the challenge from Bay Bridge in the final furlong.
One could argue he had the run of the race. Certainly he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.
Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn’t enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.
On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He’s 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exceptional colt in line with the the vibes from Aiden O’Brien, who never wavered in his admirations.
Can Bay Bridge make up the half a lengths gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.
The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that’s confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.
The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn’t love it properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that’s what we’ll have on Wednesday.
Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge’s biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. He’s a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.
On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view – hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.
10pts win – Bay Bridge @ 7/2
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6.10 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes, 5f
How is this race going to work out from a pace perspective? There seems to be plenty of early speed. Over the stiff five at Ascot this may develop into a test of who is the fastest over the minimum trip and does stay a bit further than that.
Interpreting the pace map looks tricky, especially the way the sprint races developed on the first day. I make an educated guess and think it probably will develop into a mad dash to the line where everyone from anywhere could win.
In any case, the one I like against the field is Inquisitively. He has to step up to challenge the better fancied runners, like Barnwell Boy, who ran in impressive 90 speed rating on debut, or seriously progressive Maximum Impact.
Especially Barnwell Boy looks a rock solid favourite, especially if the stands’ side continue to ride faster. He was incredibly impressive on debut, but is a skinny price for the nature of this race.
Inquisitively in contrast, has only a 2nd place to his name that came in a class 5 Novice race at Windsor. Far from sexy. However, that form rates strongly in my view and may be underestimated.
For one, the race has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meet the clock here too.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compared strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card.
That was mainly down to Inquisitively, who overcame the wide draw as he started quickly and gradually moved over the to the stands’ rail where he led and set a hot pace.
It was impressive to see him outbattle the eventual third, who had a better draw and was ridden with more restraint and who has won in the meantime as well.
That was over 6 furlongs and he appeared to have no issue with a drop to the minimum trip. In fact, I got the impression a stiff five may be an ideal scenario.
The draw is a question mark. As the going on Tuesday favoured the low numbers on the far side, according to the going stick. But wit no further rain expected I have hopes the track dries out well enough that tomorrow afternoon any bias has evaporated and we should get a fair race.
Since writing this post and backing the horse at big odds earlier today there has been a bit of money for him. Happy with my overall price, but anything lower than 15s and I probably wouldn’t have been writing this, given the competitive nature of this race, being totally honest.
10pts win – Inquisitively @ 20/1
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3.30 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Captain Vallo ran a huge race when finishing 3rd at Thirsk last time out. That was his seasonal reappearance and he could hardly have made a bigger impression that day.
He had to overcome the widest draw, far away from he favourable stands’ side. Yet, he travelled strongly in his group, made excellent progress to challenge in the closing stages, before getting tired in the last half furlong.
A superb comeback run. He must be in serious form and this easier race, down into 0-70, gives him a super chance as a winner over the course and distance.
Saying that, he’s not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6 furlongs at Hamilton on decent ground looks an ideal scenario in a race where not much else catches the eye.
10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/2
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7.10 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Wen Moon had excuses last time at Nottingham as he hang his race away after making smooth progress in the middle of the race to go upside with the leader.
He showed tendencies before of hanging to his left side, hence, possibly a track with a guiding rail to his left would be ideal. The way the 6f at Ripon rides could provide exactly that.
The #4 draw is perhaps a bit too far away from that guiding rail, though, and a concern to get there early with plenty of pace around, too.
However, cheek-pieces are added and they may help him to focus better in the closing stages, as well as to be sharply away from the gate. He showed solid early speed in the past and is a course winner as well.
His current 83 rating gives him a big chance in this field, judged on his Pontefract victory in class 3 last month. He was disadvantaged by the widest draw and had to settle in rear.
As a consequence he turned widest for home for a run, while going best, as he made smooth progress to hit the front at the final furlong marker before he hang badly to his left. Nonetheless, he won well with plenty in hand I believe.
It was an impressive performance, given the deep ground and doing so against the pace bias. Wen Moon is almost certainly better on decent (not proper fast perhaps) ground. Only 3lb higher than at Pontefract, still lightly raced and gelded during winter – there’s more to come.
10pts win – Wen Moon @ 8/1
…….
8.10 Ripon: Classified Stakes, 6f
I backed Azaim the last two times and seemingly follow this lad over the cliff.
He was incredibly disappointing at Catterick, but was beaten before the race got hot, in fact, because of the way he started and the position he found himself in.
As a 28/1 shot in a hot contest at Carlisle he improved dramatically when sent to the front. He was ran down eventually, but it was a strong effort that confirmed the promise he showed at Musselburgh last month was real.
Judged on those two performances I feel he’s better than all of his rivals here. He looks capable of running to mid 50’s in the right conditions right now, especially judged on that Musselburgh run where first and second appeared quite well-handicapped.
No more excuses, though. He’s got the #9 draw here. Ideal to attack from the front, grab the rail and wave good bye to the rest.
Royal Ascot is nearly upon us. One more sleep. It’s THE most exciting week for any flat racing fan. Brilliant racing, top-class horses. Good ground (hopefully). I love watching it.
Although, from a betting perspective it’s never been a big week for me. Last year I had only three bets the entire week (2 the year before)! Which included the Maljoom race that gives me nightmares to this day.
Hence, I’m somewhat surprised to find myself having as many bets on day one already! Ominous. Certainly given my current form.
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2.30 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, 1m
One of my favourite races all year, and how can it be any different when my favourite colt Paco Boy made a name for himself in this very race back in 2009: he travalled like a dream, produced for his trademark turn of foot to win in style (shamefully it seems no video footage has survived).
That’s the past. The future is now. And this future shapes like a match-race between Inspiral and Modern Games. At least in the betting.
Current favourite Inspiral (may change by the time of posting) hasn’t been seen since a lackluster effort in the QEII last October. That’s a worry.
However, her victory in the Jacques le Marois last August is the standout piece of form in this field, especially on (more recent) speed ratings. She ran well fresh in the past, and yet it requires a lot of trust to back her at short odds.
Modern Games is the “recent form” horse after his Lockinge Stakes success. He didn’t ran an overly impressive speed rating that day (91) and his career-best 98 from last June in the French Guineas is certainly solid, without being exceptional, especially not for a 9/4 shot in a Group 1.
Native Trail, is the one with the most consistent speed ratings, having ran multiple times to 100+, including three times last year. His comeback run after a break and wind op was okay, but hard to gauge from that whether he’s back to anywhere near his best.
If he is, and you trust him to be, he’s a clear danger and arguably value in the betting, given a stiff mile at Ascot should suit, especially if the pace is on.
Mutasaabeq got the better of Native Trail him at Newmarket in fine style from the front, but couldn’t follow up in the Lockinge. He may well set this race up for someone else, I feel.
Chindit was runner-up in the Lockinge Stakes and his performance warranted an upgrade. He won a Queen Anne Trial on his seasonal debut nicely and is a rock solid chance. For all that, he’s not overly exciting and didn’t impress on speed ratings for a while.
That brings me back to one of he horses I fancied to have a huge 2022: Cash. He was one of my 5 to follow last year. His issues have been well documented and those prevented him from realising his true potential so far.
Given the tremendous impression he made on his debut in October 2021, and then on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown in the Classic Trial in April last year, where he was a seriously unlucky 2nd behind Westover, one may wonder “what if”.
“What if” may be here and now. For one he may get his ideal race: a fast pace to track over a mile that should ensure a test of stamina over the trip. And he looks to be ideally drawn to follow the lead.
I loved his two runs this year. The second behind Chindit over this course and distance when he finished the best in a sprint finish. And when last seen in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.
He tried to move up in trip, but the pace wasn’t really on and he was – unsurprisingly – way too keen in the first three furlongs. It was still eyecatching to see the way he made smooth progress once the pace increased from over 4f out.
He fell away late but it was a huge effort behind strong Desert Crown and Hukum. Given all the question marks over most in this Queen Anne field, it nearly feels like a drop in class, somewhat.
Cash is a massive price. Too big here. Yes, he’d prefer a bit of rain for ideal conditions, but that’s unlikely to happen now. But track and trip will suit. He’s unexposed and open to improvement. Can he deliver some well needed cash for my decimated betting bank?
10pts win – Cash @ 20/1
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3.05 Ascot: Group 2 Coventry Stakes, 6f
Intriguing race for myriad of reasons. There’s certainly a social media aspect to the race: the clock vs the eye, who’s going to prevail? That’s the simplified narrative of the last few days on Twitter as all the pre-race talk evolves around River Tiber and Asadna.
Aiden O’Brien has been really positive about his lad, River Tiber, who’s 2/2 this year and looked an exciting colt on debut. So is Ryan Moore. That’s definitely something to take serious.
River Tiber must have learned plenty at Naas the next time, where he also bettered his excellent debut 77 speed rating. There is tons more to come, especially as he moves up to 6 furlongs.
Asadna on the other hand, was visually incredibly impressive on debut, but also ran a sensational 90 speed rating. He couldn’t have done more to impress that day at Ripon.
Both are drawn at opposing ends of the field. The way this race develops from a pace angle could decide who’s more likely to win. They have solid pace around them to potentially provide a lead into the finish.
However, the pace may develop more toward the middle and higher drawn horses here, and that may play into the hands of Asadna, but also could bring other horses into the equation.
There are many tasty prices on offer, and it’s not easy in a field full of unexposed horses to make the ‘right’ call.
A case can be certainly made for Army Athos, who was visually an impressive winner on debut, who seems an uncomplicated sort as well and may provide good early speed from gate #12. He ran a low speed rating, though, hence has to show more here if he wants to go all the way.
Amo Racing has some interesting contenders: Cuban Thunder looks potentially well drawn between speed horses, to get a nice lead, if he’s good enough to take it.
Stable mate Bucanero Fuerte could be even better drawn, close to likely speed horses Army Ethos and US raider Fandom. He could be in an excellent spot two furlongs from home.
He impressed me on debut at the Curragh early in the season over the minimum trip, as he travelled well, tracked the pace and kicked clear in impressive manner eating up the uphill finish at Irish flat racing HQ as he ran to a fine 80 speed rating as well.
🏇 Bucanero Fuerte (3/1 fav) powers home in the opening 2-Y-O maiden under Kevin Stott for Adrian Murray. Dare we say it, but is he Royal Ascot material? pic.twitter.com/URQbHdomkP
It was rain softened ground, so the form may be a bit suspect, and hasn’t worked out all that well in the meantime. Nonetheless, the way he finished that day – strongly sprinting all the way to the line – suggests that moving up to 6 furlongs will certainly to his advantage. He’s a full-brother to some smart siblings. Whether he handles the better ground is the key question.
Bobsleight and Haatem, first and third at Epsom recently, are others who are interesting as they appear progressive and have a bit of experience already.
Hard to know how good Fandom is for Wesley Ward. What’s to be expected is the colt to show blistering early speed. Though, there are many with solid early pace in this race this time and also right beside him. I feel he may burn his fuel too early.
The other one who may get a nice lead into the race, drawn more on the outside of the pace I expect to come toward the centre of the track, is debut Windsor scorer Chief Mankato.
The form may be underestimated, because it was just a Windsor Class 5 Novice race. However, it seemed a surprisingly hot one. The form looks strong, has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meat the clock here.
Even though he was possibly well drawn, he didn’t get the ideal race early one with shifting horses pushing him ever so slightly back. His acceleration from 3f out, though, was impressive, and he reeled the leaders in to run home strongly.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compares strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card. This lad must have a serious engine.
Ascot Adventure ran a huge race when last seen at Beverley, and left on the same mark, 5lb below his last winning mark, he looks a big chance with a good draw and pace scenario possible in his favour.
The Beverley race was a hot affair. He moved quickly forward to push a strong pace as part of a leading duo. He rolled down the hill and overall ran an inefficient race.
Still, he was able to actually kick on once again in the home straight – Impressive to see, before getting understandably tired late.
He achieved a joint career-2nd best speed rating here, even though 7.5 furlongs may stretch his stamina to the absolute limit.
The slight drop back to 7 furlongs here at Thirsk will suit. He acts in all sort of ground conditions, so any rain is not a major worry. Off 80 with the #4 draw and a track that favours those up with the pace he looks to have a serious chance.
10pts win – Ascot Adventure @ 5/1
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4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m
What a race! Pretty much all the right horses are here. This presents also the opportunity for English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners to meet.
The ground could play a major role in who’s going to brevail in this battle. It looks pretty clear that Chaldean prefers cut in the ground. It may not rain enough between now and tomorrow afternoon to turn Ascot to proper soft.
I also feel Chaldean got pretty much the run of the race at Newmarket. He ran a fine treble-digit sped rating, that gives the performance substance, and yet I have reservations, not least at his short price.
If the ground stays decent enough I would certainly favour Paddington. I was present at the Curragh three weeks ago and saw an individual with plenty of scope. I loved how he kicked on in the final furlong and he looks an exciting prospect for the future.
In saying that, the fact he hasn’t managed to run a speed rating beyond the 60s is concerning. Perhaps, he didn’t have the opportunity yet, could be a fair argument. He looks capable of doing it, but given his short enough price there is better value to be found.
Royal Scotsman was an excellent third at Newmarket behind Chaldean. He was possibly a little bit unfortunate that day. He flopped at the Curragh and his well being has to be trusted. He should be in the mix if healthy.
Craven winner Indestructible bombed out in the Guineas. The Craven performance gives him a chance, if he could be back to that level of form. Galeron ran on well in the Irish equivalent, a bit of an eyecatcher. So was Charyn, who didn’t get the clearest of runs. Both may not be good enough, though, I suspect.
Isaac Shelby was a comfortable in the Greenham with a good speed rating and ran with tons of credit when runner-up in the French Guineas. The #3 draw here is ideal for him to move forward and find a good position. I like him a lot.
Unbeaten Cicero’s Gift has been talked about a lot. He looks open to plenty of improvement. A danger, if he does progress, indeed. However, he has to find quite a bit on speed ratings.
That leaves unexposed Mostabshir. He’s one of my horses to follow after his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.
His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time.
That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, an he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he’d have won by half a furlong, perhaps.
The pace wasn’t truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn’t do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.
Impressive! 👀
Mostabshir (Dark Angel) gives a good-looking field a good beating and the St James's Palace entry looks exciting for the Gosdens and Shadwell @yorkracecoursepic.twitter.com/HODcoeYf0r
Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It’s a significant step up from a Novice race at York.
On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a hug eyecatcher. It’s also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.
He’s bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His dam’s offspring often improve with time. At give prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.
10pts win – Mostabshir @ 8/1
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5.35 Ascot: Listed Wolferton Stakes, 10f
Saga looks a poor favourite. He may not stay and could struggle for a run. Buckaroo could run over his preferred trip and the yard is quite bullish. Saying that, he hasn’t run a serious speed rating yet.
This is wide open and much will depend on pace and whether horses get a clear run. The one I’m keen on is Royal Champion who caught my eye a number of times last year.
This is a Listed race and he has to carry a penalty which isn’t ideal. Nonetheless, I think he could be capable of giving the weight away as he may well deserve another crack at Group level and he looks significantly overpriced here.
There a a few reasons why he is a big price, the weight penalty aside, and they are valid, though. The #12 draw isn’t ideal. There is plenty of pace and he may be caught wide or too far back. If the rain arrives it could compromise his chances further.
In saying that, right now it seems good ground is the worst to expect on Tuesday afternoon. The gelding has shown to be versatile in his running style, possessing excellent cruising speed, which is what’s needed here in this likely chaotic race.
He drops in class after a poor effort in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester. That came over 10.5f in the mud and was his comeback run. I thought he ran better than the bare result suggested given he was there right until they turned for home, actually.
He was found out for class in the Champion Stakes in his final race in 2022, but prior to that enjoyed an excellent campaign: two fine victories over 10 furlongs in Handicap and Listed company, and a strong third in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor.
He ran to a 104 speed rating there – a race that has worked out well in the meantime – and backed that up with an ultra-impressive victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr where he travelled incredibly strongly and made eyecatching progress from 4f out to win comfortably.
That particular piece of form may not be the strongest on offer, though the way he did it was visually quite taking nd simply confirmed that he’s a proper horse, in my view. The way h quickened was impressive.
If he can run to same level of form that he was able to run to last summer he has a chance to win here, especially if the way the race develops gives him a clear run at it in the home straight.
Disappointing Friday. Both horses were well-backed. But that didn’t mean anything once the gates opened.
Elterwater was off the bridle pretty early, and after it looked briefly as if she could get involved, she fell rapidly away in the closing stages.
Shark Two One ran solid for a third place, but never looked like winning. I think I’ll stick with him for now as his revised mark gives him a good chance next time, I believe.
……
4.55 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Sergeant Tibbs caught the eye a number of times in the last half year. He ran extremely well on the All-Weather in his last three runs at the end of 2022 before a break, without winning, though.
he made life difficult for himself on the sand, and in any case, is a better horse on turf.
He changed yards this spring, now trained by John Flint. He made his stable debut for the new yard at Windsor last month., which was also his seasonal reapperance and first run since December.
With that in mind, he finished a respectable 5th place, less than 4 lengths beaten, on heavy ground, having been closer ridden to a hot pace early on than the horses that finished ahead of him.
His next run at Goodwood can be marked up as well. He was probably found out for class, ultimately, but early keenness wasn’t any help. He still finished solid enough taking all that into account.
Those last two performances suggest he’s in pretty good form. The handicapper has been lenient, dropped him another 2lb.
Here at Ascot he can race off 70, takes a drop in class, down into an even easier race than the one at Windsor. He’s a tricky character and the lack of pace could be an issue. Nonetheless, he remains still lightly raced on turf, having ran well enough i most of his turf starts, most of those with cut in the ground.
Including a Handicap win off 77 last May, when he also ran to an 82 speed rating. Therefore, he could be seriously well-handicapped in this field as soft ground isn’t a worry.
10pts win – Sergeant Tibbs @ 15/2
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8.10 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Veteran Eponina looks to have found an ideal opportunity to score. She won this race twelve month ago off a 2lb lower mark, ran to a 66 speed rating that day, and followed up weeks later with a win and head beaten 2nd off 69 and 70 ratings.
She clearly is on a good mark, although, not one where she has tons in hand. But she is in super form, there’s no doubt. She was well-backed last week at Beverley, and ran really well.
Eponina grabbed the lead, although was closely followed all the time. She was a bit keen in the first half of the race and came under severe pressure entering the home straight. I was impressed how gutsy she was, answering the calls for effort and focus.
The drop to 7 furlongs on soft ground should be in her favour, as should be her return to Leicester.
Her experience will be an asset in this race against a bunch of inexperienced 3-year-olds. This is still the time when the elder should have a distinct advantage, regardless of WFA.
The favourite Albeseeingyer is on five-timer. She ran a good speed rating when she won the last time, and could still be progressive enough to overcome her revised mark. But this is better grade and Eponina certainly a tougher rival to beat.
Backing 9-year-old mares isn’t my cup of tea normally, but I feel she could prove too good for this field off her current mark, and represents sufficient value at current prices.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.
Serious Look 25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:
Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.
Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.
Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.
Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.
Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.
Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.
Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.
Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.
He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.
Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.
Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.
Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.
Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.
Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.
Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.
Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.
Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.
Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.
Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.
Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.
Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.
Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.
Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.
Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.
Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.
Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.
Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.
Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.
Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.
Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.
Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.
Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.
Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.
Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.
First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.
Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.
Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.
Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.
Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.
Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.
Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.
Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.
Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.
Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.
Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.
Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.
Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.
Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.
Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.
Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.
Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.
At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.
Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.
Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.
Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.
Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.
Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.
Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.
Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.
Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.
Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.
Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.
Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.
Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.
Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.
Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.
Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.
Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.
Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.
Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.
Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.
Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.
Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.
Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.
Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.
376.30 points profit, 35 winners and 19% ROI. It was an eventful year with plenty of lessons learned.
2022 was a challenge on many fronts, “on and off the pitch”, so to speak. On the pitch it clearly was an ever dramatic up and down. From the absolute highs of backing the longshot winner in the Melbourne Cup to the absolute lows of backing 31 consecutive losers.
At times I struggled, stumbled and lost confidence in the process that has been tried and trusted for nearly a decade now. Ultimately, though, 2022 proved to be another profitable year.
The process is alive and kicking, still working well enough to produce winners and a green P&L sheet – at the end of the day for a sixth consecutive profitable betting year.
Raw numbers
376.30pts annual profit
19.29% Return of Investment
201 Selections
35 winners
17.41% Strike Rate
8/1 average odds
Selections on turf produced the majority of the annual profit with 310pts; about 141pts from UK selections alone. Irish selections were also profitable this year with about 49pts profit.
The All-Weather shows a 59pts loss. I didn’t back a winner on the sand until late October, in fact. A clear upswing since then, with 156pts profit in the last two months of the year.
As always, outside of UKI things look positive: 13 international bets produced 160pts profit.
On the flat the majority of this years profit came in class 5 and class 6 Handicaps. All but two winners came in races below a mile. No surprise, as that is my main focus, both in terms of class and distances.
Selections in races over the 7 furlongs trip yielded the highest return: 285pts profit from 38 selections. Closely followed by the minimum trip that yielded 237pts profit for seven winners from 25 bets.
In contrast 6 furlongs produced a whopping 147pts loss from 36 selections. 37 selections over the mile trip resulted in 95pts loss. Middle to longer distances were a loss-making endeavour, too.
I’m not a jumps man betting wise: 11 selections, 95pts profit, largely due to a fine Cheltenham festival with 5/8 successful bets.
Ascot has been a kind track to me this year, both in terms of producing winners as well as eye catchers that went on to win subsequently.
Newcastle (0/10) and Doncaster (0/7) have been a disaster, on the other hand. Kempton (1/12) is a track I struggled, as well; I am not sure whether I ever backed a winner at Carlisle. Certainly not in 2022.
As for the selection process (flat only): eye catchers contributed 181 pts (222pts in Class 5/6, but minus 86pts all other Handicaps), traditional form analysis added 70pts to the annual profit, the rest made up by a bunch of system bets.
A complete overview of all selections and annual data going back to 2017 can be found here if anyone is keen to dig deeper.
Key Learnings
While 2022 was a solid year, it didn’t feel like a good year at all. It could have been – perhaps should have been – a much better year than it has been, for various reasons. There are 3 key learnings I hope to transfer into 2023.
Trust The Process
Be consistent and trust what’s working well – yes, reflect and don’t shy away from change if required, but the core of the process has remained the same for nearly decade and continues to work well.
Bet the process, not the outcome….
It’s the one thing you hear every profitable punter say. because it’s true. I need to remind myself of this mantra, once in a while, especially in times when variance shows its mean face.
My process works. It’s profitable. It takes a lot of effort. But it rewards the work and effort plenty fold. It does… if I do trust it, though; even during lean times. Be consistent about the approach to finding bets (i.e. the process) and good things will happen…. eventually.
Be Patient
An extension of consistency and trusting the process. It requires patience. There are no shortcuts.
Patience also means picking and choosing your fights. In the summer, when up to 20 eyecatchers could run in a single day, the fear of missing out can led to a rushed decision-making process. This will almost certainly lead to poor bets.
There’s simply too much racing, it can be overwhelming. Instead of attempting the impossible, be selective and focus on the races that play to the strengths of the process. Be patient, it’s the long term that matters. If “one gets away”, so be it. Tomorrow is another day.
Variance is your Friend
I endured some brutal losing runs this year: 31 consecutive losers- and only one winner of 48 bets between July and September. Only one short-priced winner of 27 bets between April and May.
Tough times. And inevitable. Especially given the average odds of my bets – around 8/1.
Sequences of losing bets are nothing out of ordinary; in fact they are to be expected and statistically inevitable. It’s variance. As simple and brutal as it is.
Knowing this doesn’t make it easier to endure. I was wondering during those times whether I “lost it”.
On the other hand, a simple look back to previous years would have shown that losing runs happened every year and the up- and downswings can be quite violent, as the 2017-2022 P&L graph presented earlier demonstrates pretty well.
Where things go down they have to go up again. What followed the most horrible months of my “betting career” was a November for the ages: the most profitable single month in over four years.
Remember, it’s a never ending ultra-marathon – as long as the P&L sheet is green in the long run it doesn’t matter what happens in the short-term, as long as value is still present in each and every price taken.
2022 Favourite Winners
I backed 35 winners in 2022. Every single one is important, no matter the class of the race. But some mean more than others, if only on an emotional level. Here’s my 3 favourite winners in 2022.
Gold Trip: Melbourne Cup
Backing the 21/1 winner in my favourite international race, is the standout moment in 2022.
Gold Trip’s victory came at the right time as he kicked off a golden November. Prior to this fateful first November day, I backed a meagerly two winners from the last 53 selections. All forgotten, when you land the big one.
State Of Rest: Prince of Wales’s Stakes
A gutsy, honest colt, trained by Joseph O’Brien, State Of Rest got a peach of a ride by Shane Crosse at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s, beating odds-on favourite Bay Bridge.
This win came at the right time, after backing only a single winner in the last 26 selections. I got 8.4 on the exchanges, which looks stellar value in hindsight.
Sammarco: German Derby
Far from the biggest winner of the year, but certainly one of my favourites. I was incredibly sweet on the son of Camelot, as he caught the eye in serious fashion on his previous two career starts and I felt he could even develop into an Arc contender.
While his season ended somewhat in an anti-climax, his German Derby triumph was as dramatic as brilliant, given the way the race developed. This winner was one of 9 in a glorious July.
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Finally, thank you to all readers, be it here or on Twitter, and especially those that have engaged so eagerly. It makes it twice as enjoyable if you can share the passion for the sport with other people, and even more so if others can derive value from this site as well. On to a wonderful and hopefully profitable 2023.
It’s all about Baaeed. Unbeaten in ten career starts, he comes here after that massive performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He’s very much expected to win in style this afternoon.
Retirement beckons afterwards, and surely the smartest fillies are waiting for him in the breeding shed next year. That’s for then. It’s a bid for racing greatness here and now.
In truth, though, I have been somewhat reserved in getting overly excited about what Baaeed had done until he demolished a strong field at York in August.
The reason a simple one: I hold topspeed close to my heart as a KPI if it comes to judging race horses. Prior to the Juddmonte, Baaeed’s career-best of 106 was quite good, but far from brilliant – especially given the comparisons to the true greats of the recent past, like his sire Sea The Stars, or Frankel.
Even my beloved Paco Boy achieved much better; yet, I as the most enthusiastic Paco Boy fan in the world, have to admit, he was not one of the greatest the sport had ever seen.
Roll on the 17th August 2022: Juddomonte International Stakes – Baaeed eases into the lead, effortless, floating over the ground, majestically; he quickens in impressive style and slaughters a labouring Mishriff by 6½ lengths.
Nearly as important as the margin of victory: Baaeed achieved a topspeed rating of 124. Finally a superb performance on this measure as well.
Any concerns over the trip were convincingly put to bed. Connections decided against moving up to the Arc distance subsequently, though. Probably a wise decision in hindsight.
Baaeed – a perfect 10 out of 10 – is impossible to oppose today….. or is he? Most likely, I am clearly in the minority: I still question whether he deserves to be called a “true great”. In my view: not yet.
It’s possibly harsh to say he has to prove himself today. Yet, in my eyes he’s got to prove his greatness: a performance similar to York, and I am going to be fully on board.
That says, he faces two real dangers today: the ground and a fresh Adayar.
Softish ground isn’t a big deal, given Baaeed has won in these conditions in the past. However, he never faced a rival as classy as Adayar in these conditions. I firmly believe Baaeed can’t quite produce the same change of gear on this type of ground.
Baaeed is vulnerable: he produced a 94 best topspeed rating on ground when the word soft appeared in the going description. It’s likely he’s a better horse today than the last time he encountered softish ground; nonetheless, it’s a question mark.
That brings me to Adayar. The only serious opposition today. We haven’t seen much of last years Derby and King George hero. You have to worry about his disrupted year.
On the other hand, it gives him the opportunity to arrive fresh, without a hard season in his legs, after a solid, if unspectacular comeback run at Doncaster last month.
If – and it’s a proper if – Adayar is anywhere near as good as he was last season, then he’ll be a formidable danger to Baaeed. Because let’s remember, he produced his two best performances with cut in the ground in the Derby, and subsequently here at Ascot in the King George, then on fast ground. This versatility could be key.
He ran a huge race in the Arc toward the end of last season; one can forgive a subsequent poor run in the Champions Stakes. The drop to 10 furlongs is another question mark I have. On the other hand, given the softish ground, it could prove ideal, especially if William Buick is bold enough to kick on once the field turns for home. Adayar isn’t slow, and one thing is for sure: he will stay all the way to the line.
Tactically it’s going to be intriguing: what’s Crowley’s game plan? From the #1 draw, he may get boxed in, if he doesn’t move forward right away. I doubt he wants to be too aggressive early on, though. That’s a clear danger, especially if the ground takes something out of Baaeed’s turn of foot.
At the given prices, I simply can’t ignore Adayar. I have question marks. But I have them over Baaeed as well. He’ still by far the likeliest winner, mind. And the fan in me wants him to bow out in style. Yet, the punter in me says a fit and happy Adayar has a better than 10% chance to win a third career Group 1 this afternoon.
A shoutout for Royal Champion: a huge price, one who I feel could outrun this price tag (can be backed at 160s on Exchanges). I was hugely impressed with his recent Ayr run. One to keep an eye on for the future, in any case.
10pts win – Adayar @ 9/1
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3.50 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Perhaps it’s the end of the road for veteran Dark Shot after a number of recent below par performances; however, he was earlier this season still running to low 70 ratings, with a really strong run only back in July at Goodwood, when a neck beaten runner-up.
He was rated 69 and ran to topspeed 67 that day – a seasonal best on that measure, although it was especially his Doncaster 4th place finish a few weeks earlier that caught my eye.
He couldn’t back up those runs the last three times, but two came at Southwell on the All-Weather. He weakened badly in all three races, though. A worry.
But: Dark Shot won this very same race 12 months ago. He’s on a lower mark, will enjoy the return to soft ground and has a solid draw to attack the race from.
It’s been a rather quiet week so far. But I have five selections for what I call a proper “Super Saturday” today. As we’re on the home stretch in July I could do with another winner to “ring fence” the profit for the month.
I fully understand why Zanbaq is favourite in this contest, but the price is silly in my view. It’s a different proposition stepping up from a Handicap, albeit a strong one at Royal Ascot, to Group 3 level. The fact she can miss the break and likely will have to come from off the pace could turn out to be a significant disadvantage too.
The one seriously overpriced is German raider Novemba. She has to give weight away to the younger generation but she is a proven Stakes filly with a Classic victory to her name.
Her third place behind Real World last October is the standout form on offer in this race. She couldn’t match this form in two starts this season, but she needed the run at Baden-Baden and wasn’t disgraced at Royal Ascot in the Duke Of Cambridge.
The round track will suit her better today. She likes to be up with the pace. Being on the speed should be an advantage today, in my view, especially on fast ground.
Saying that, the ground is a concern. No question she prefers it softer. But she can act on a faster surface and I feel given she’s likely the best filly in the race and may enjoy a tactical advantage over key rivals, she is clearly overpried.
Jawaal was beaten by a combined margin of 23 lengths+ in four starts this year although he didn’t ran quite that badly in my view. He certainly caught the eye in his two starts in May, actually and also had sometimes more, sometimes less, valid excuses the last two times.
In any case, as a consequence of finishing down the field four times in a row, he has fallen dramatically in the official ratings. If he is indeed better than the bare forms suggest, as I believe, and he can find back to somewhere closer to last seasons form, he’d be a massive runner today.
He won twice in 2021, and ran to topspeed 98 at Haydock in September – arguably a career best – and also achieved 84 and 89 topspeeds earlier the year.
In truth, even with valid excuses, the way he finished his races this year doesn’t suggest he’s close to that. On the other hand he usually travelled quite smoothly, but found trouble in-running and didn’t produce any significant kick once in the clear.
That can be a sure sign for his waning ability now as a 7-year-old. Nonetheless, down to a mark of 89, with ideal fast ground conditions, at track he’s CD winner and potentially cheek-pieces to help in a wide open contest, I’ll give him a chance to find some form. If he does he’ll be hard to beat.
10pts win – Jawaal @ 9/1
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7.30 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
I quite like Delagate This Lord here who will probably enjoy ideal conditions stepping back up to 6 furlongs again. But I struggle to bring myself backing an 8-year-old, especially with an exciting alternative.
Perhaps even a blind man would have seen the eyecatching run Prophecy produced earlier this month at Ffos Las. He couldn’t get a clear run at all, yet finished supremely well on the bridle in the closing stages, matching the quickest final furlong. He looked like a horse well ahead of his mark.
That was his comeback run after a long break. He changed yards too. Still a maiden after 10 lifetime starts, though he showed a bit of promise on the All-Weather. Today is only his third run on turf. He looks pretty unexposed for the surface and there looks to be significant improvement to come, judged on the last run.
There are clear risks attached today, and that’s probably the reason why he’s as a big a price he is: the potential “bounce factor”, the firm ground may not be ideal, given his full-sister did her best running on softer, and he probably will improve markedly for a step up in trip.
And yet at given odds I can’t ignore him, too impressive was this recent run, too far ahead of his mark he appears to be.
10pts win – Prophecy @ 6/1
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8.40 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Sir Philip caught the eye on his handicap debut over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton earlier this month. Five furlongs are certainly too sharp as was evidence when he struggled badly at the back of the field. He finished nicely on the eye though, without being overly hard ridden in the closing stages.
Stepping up to 7 furlongs looks the right move on pedigree and visual evidence from all his races. He is still lightly raced and completely unexposed over this trip. Down to a mark of 59 he has opportunities I feel, especially in a weak race.
Drawn in stall 1 offers a way forward, I hope but is also a danger. If he misses the break he could be left in a poor position. He showed that he can start quickly on his second career run, incidentally the only one beyond fife furlongs to date.
A small but certainly select field makes this edition of the King George an exciting renewal. Some of the very best older horses meet the leading lights of the 2022 Classic generation.
All eyes are naturally drawn to Westover: an unlucky third in the English Derby and subsequent runaway winner of the Irish Derby. He’s been seriously progressive this season and today is about telling us whether there’s even more to come.
Of course the rematch with Desert Crown was highly anticipated but won’t be happening for quite some time, it seems likely now. That doesn’t distract from the intrigue that surrounds Ralph Beckett’s colt.
The son of Frankel is hard to fault. A progressive sort, he created visually a strong impression at the Curragh when landing the Irish Derby where he also ran to topspeed 100 as easy as you like. He confirmed his strong Derby performance that saw him run to topspeed 106 despite the well documented trouble he encountered in the home straight.
What the Curragh form is worth remains to be seen. And another question mark remains: how does he cope with proper fast ground? Could he be found out for speed on this ground in a race with a possibly muddling pace? He’s a short enough price to find out.
The other three-year-old in the field is English Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn.
Many will argue she was quite unlucky that day at Epsom. Perhaps she lost the race at the start, although, that is my view, she had every opportunity to win in any case, given the winner Tuesday didn’t enjoy the smoothest of runs either.
Prior to the Oaks the John Gosden trained filly was a runaway winner of Musidora Stakes and won in even more impressive style on her seasonal reappearance at Sandown. If not for the neck beaten effort at Epsom she’d be unbeaten in four career runs.
Yet, in my view she appears to be seriously vulnerable. The fact of the matter is the figures are against her. She ran to topspeeds 95 at York and 97 at Epsom. Circumstances play a role in these figures, yet they tell a story at the same time and Emily Upjohn had opportunities to prove she is top-class on speed ratings as well.
She may well do so today. In fairness, she looks progressing all the time. But she has to take another big step forward today.
Mishriff was certainly an unlucky horse in the Coral Eclipse earlier this month. Short of room at a crucial stage, he finished much the best and was only a neck beaten by brilliant 3-year-old Vadeni. Another day he wins the race.
He is top-rated in this field, up to 5lb clear on official ratings There’s good reason for it. A runner-up in the 2021 edition of the King George, just beaten by excellent Derby winner Adayar, he went on to land the Juddmonte International in great style a few weeks later.
He ran to topspeed 116 and 118 in those two races. He ran 108 at Sandown. there is a slight question mark whether he truly is in love with the 1m 4f trip. Most likely the race today will turn out a test of speed more than pure stamina, so it’s unlikely to be an issue.
Mishriff is the class-act in the field and if he can improve just a tiny bit from Sandown – not impossible, given he came off a break – he’s going to be hard to beat, I reckon.
I love to see Torquator Tasso here. It’s brave by trainer Marcel Weiss to take a chance on ground most likely too fast for last years Arc hero. Weiss also has been quite open in admitting Torquator Tasso won’t be 100% today. Defending his crown in Paris is the ultimate goal.
There are questions marks over the validity of his Arc victory because of the heavy ground that day. He was a shock winner. Nonetheless, he’s a multiple Group 1 winner regardless. Clearly top-class, he deserved to be in this field. As much as I would love to see him do the “Danedream Double” it’s difficult to see.
The two long-shots Pyledriver and Broome are given little chance in the betting. The latter is clearly the more interesting one, in my view. An excellent winner of the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, he ran to topspeed 108 that day – that level of form entitles him to have a fair shot, today, especially on fast ground and his ability to go from the front.
Selection:
The market is tight but still underestimates Mishriff, who is clearly the best horse in the race. If he can run to the level of form he produced last summer in this very race and subsequently at York – and the Eclipse indicates he can – then he is simply too good for the rest in this field.
He has to give weight away to some smart younger horses, but he looks well capable of doing that in my book. On topspeed nothing in this field gets even close to him. I have him around a 5/2 chance as fair price. So there’s still a bit of juice left, albeit not that much.
On a roll. A hat-trick of winners over the last three days. Flotus won the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York in lovely fashion.
It couldn’t have gone any better: the filly broke well, led the field, although others tried to go with her. Halfway through the race I thought she may have done too much too early. But she kept going all the way strongly to the line. She proved the best filly in the race. Class prevailed.
🏆Summer Stakes (G3) 1210m, 80.000 GBP, 3yo+ mares 🇬🇧 York
Flotus 🇮🇪 (3F Starspangledbanner – Floriade, by Invincible Spirit) J : @SilvDSousa T : Simon & Ed Crisford O :Katsumi Yoshida B :Newtown Stud and T J Pabst 🥈Adaay To Remember 🥉Gale Force Mayapic.twitter.com/iQ1DJ4uHpN
Hard to believe how rapidly and dramatically the tide can turn in this game as long as you make good decisions, believe in your method (IF it’s a solid and proven method) and show consistency in the effort put in day in day out and most importantly the quality of decisions made.
Already five winners in the first week of July, that’s one more than in the entire individual months of April or May. Right now things are flowing, so to speak. But the pendulum can swing as quickly the other way again, I know all too well.
So I’ll try to stick (not always easy) to the Golden Rules regarding emotions: never too high, never too low. Because three losers on Saturday and the world looks a little bit gloomier again.
3.35 Ascot: Group 2 Summer Mile, 1m
A close one: there isn’t much between the main principles in the field on official ratings, RPR’s or topspeed – the outcome will depend on the form on the day, on pace and possibly on who gets first run round the Ascot mile.
Modern News, My Oberon and Perotto met only a fortnight ago at Windsor in a tight finish with not more than ¾ of a lengths between them as My Oberon finished strongly to get up on the line.
I felt that day Perotto could be marked up for his front-running effort when he possibly over-raced a bit in the early stages. I was hugely impressed how he fought back so gamely once headed, even after being slightly hampered over half a furlong from home. He simply didn’t give up.
He’s no star but a rock solid individual, who has sometimes lacked sharpness out of the gates but clearly responded well to front-running tactics the last time. Cheek-pieces added seem a logical move and hopefully help him to be sharp early. A prominent position on fast ground at the round course is an advantage in my book.
He acts well on fast ground, clearly stays a mile as seen when winning a strongly run Britannia last year and should go well. He’s not the likeliest winner, but certainly overpriced while better fancied horses are priced up according to reputation more so than substance, I feel.
Chindit in particular, who looks a wrong favourite. He hasn’t even cracked a 90 topspeed rating in his last six starts.
10pts win – Perotto @ 12/1
…….
4.45 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
Washraa is clearly well handicapped on the basis of her seriously impressive Sandringham Stakes run. She travelled like a good thing, looked likely to come with a big challenge over two furlongs out, but clipped heels, stumbled badly and lost every chance, yet finished in impressive style, nonetheless.
Of course it’s hypothetical how much she would have found with a clear run. Though, I’m pretty certain she would have gone seriously close. She can race off the same mark here, which offers a great opportunity to resume the winning habit she showed in two starts before Royal Ascot.
She improved nicely since her seasonal reappearance, hinting talent already as a juvenile and should have too much talent for this slightly easier race than the rivals she encountered at Royal Ascot.
10pts win – Washraa @ 3/1
…….
5.20 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Out From Under is a strong favourite. Only a pound up for his recent very strong Newmarket effort is possibly lenient. At prices I must select the talented filly Tarrabb, though. I reckon she is better than her official rating of 80.
Whether she is already better now, after three career runs, is the key question. She looked raw and very much learning on the job in all her races, nonetheless won really well on debut, wasn’t disgraced when beaten as runner-up subsequently after pulling hard, and lost her race at the gates at Thirsk.
She still very much caught the eye that day in particular, making good progress from the back of the field but not getting a clear run. It’s reasonable to assume she is ahead of her mark. Straight Ascot seven looks an ideal, simple test for the filly.
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