Tag Archives: 2019

Betting

Friday Selections: September, 20th 2019

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Postulation

7.20 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Decent race for this class, and favourite Chaplin Bay, who’d made me a happy boy a number of times in the past, is a strong favourite. But it’s Mostahel who really makes strong appeal on his return to Tapeta.

His career has certainly not developed as one would have envisioned when he demolished a field of maidens at Wolverhampton back in spring 2017, even though he followed up with a strong handicap performance at Newmarket, ever since then the now 5-year-old gelding has been falling down off a cliff.

Clearly this lad has had his fair share of issues, endured twice long absences from racing and has changed yards but on the plus side is potentially on a sexy handicap mark and may not yet be finished, given he’s been rather lightly raced for his age.

There was clear signs of a return to some sort of form when Mostahel finished a strong third – albeit in a messy race – at Redcar two starts back. He pulled pretty hard early on over the 7f trip and then didn’t get a run until finally in the clear over a furlong out. He finished strongly, suggesting victory is imminent.

Mostahel didn’t kick on the next time, dropped to 6 furlongs when upped in class, though that was a hot contest and he ran okay, I felt.

Now back over 7 furlongs, with a strong pace likely, only his second ever start on the All-Weather, the sole one was the demolition job at Wolverhampton, he makes plenty of appeal of a mark of 68, given as a juvenile he ran to topspeed ratings of 79 on turf and 86 on the Wolverhampton Tapeta. He’s not that good these days, obviously. But doesn’t have to be to land this contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Mostahel @ 11/2 MB

……….

8.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Fard is a fair favourite but nothing more. The case of Groupie is much more intriguing for her return to the All-Weather, after a number of respectable efforts this year, all the while she keeps falling in the official ratings.

Clearly the mare is now on a dangerous handicap mark, given she has ran nine times in her career to topspeed ratings of 52 and higher, plus did so this season already and caught the eye when last seen on the All-Weather at Wolverhampton in August.

That form is a key piece I feel. Even though over an additional furlong, it was a stronger race than this today, Groupie travelled really well but didn’t get a run until entering the home straight when the bird was flown with first and second, in fact also the third, all enjoying first run.

She finished a fair 4th nonetheless, best of those from the ones off the pace. She did so off a 59 handicap mark. One can clearly see how she’d gone much closer with a clear run and 8lb less on the back.

The drop to 6 furlongs isn’t an issue. The fair straight at Newcastle should suit. Big run expected.

Selection:
10pts win – Groupie @ 10.5/1 MB

………

6.00 Dundalk: Handicap, 1 mile

Speculative and unlikely to happen, but should Masalai get in here as third reserve he’d have a big chance to go pretty close of a big price. Otherwise he’s one to stick into the tracker for another day.

Masalai is a course and distance specialist who has won of a 63 handicap mark earlier this year, while also having ran four times to topspeed 57+ over CD. Therefore it is rather obvious that currently down to a 56 handicap mark the 5-year-old is potentially well in here.

He hasn’t excelled during the turf season in three starts, so a lightly campaign in the last few months should ensure he’s fresh and ready for a big run.

Selection:
10pts win – Masalai @ 12/1 MB / Edit: ***NR***

……..

6.30 Dundak: Handicap, 1 mile

The draw is a big negative, but Dubai Rainbow appears to be so well handicapped today that I take the risk. It also helps knowing the filly usually breaks smartly.

Despite strong performance at Bellwestown when last seen in July, the handicapper has dropped her 3lb. She was a beaten favourite that day but it was a messy finish, not unusual for that track, and a good 3rd place finish was rather encouraging, proving her fallen mark will see her get her head in front soon.

Dubai Rainbow returns to the All-Weather now, where her career best performances came in two starts – a win in a claimer, and a strong 3rd place in Handicap company last autumn. That day she raced off a 70 handicap mark and ran to a 70 topspeed rating.

With excellent Oisin Orr on board today I’m hopeful she can break well and overcome the wide draw. If that’s the case she’ll go close of a mark of 59.

Selection:
10pts win – Dubai Rainbow @ 9/2 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: September, 19th 2019

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3.00 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 1 Mile

Despite a big field this race is a rather uncompetitive one with only few appearing to be anywhere near what you’d describe as well-handicapped. There is no doubt, that when on a going day, Vive La Difference is surely one who is well-handicapped, though.

The 5-year-old gelding has been struggling to find his best for a while, certainly starting slowly on pretty much every occasion doesn’t help. At the same time a few performances have been promising this year, when not far beaten in competitive races at Wetherby or Ripon earlier this season.

Vive La Difference has fallen quite a bit in his handicap mark, now 10lb lower than he started the season. He ran twice in his career to topspeed ratings of higher than 70, and a number of times around his current handicap mark of 68, including this year.

That gives hope that today of a near career lowest mark he can run a big race with conditions sure to suit, particularly if first time blinkers can help sharpen him up at the beginning of the race.

Selection:
10pts win – Vive La Difference @ 11.5/1 MB

……

3.10 Pontefract: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I was keen on Aiya the last time at Thirsk. Things didn’t pan out as hoped, but the gelding conveniently dropped another 3lb in the mark and also to a more suitable 1m 2f trip, I believe.

Most what I talked about in my analysis leading up to the Thirsk race still holds true today:

The 4-year-old was a little bit unlucky not get his head in front on grass yet, because he got close at Redcar when beaten by a neck back in May.  He ran to topspeed 80 in that mentioned Redcar race and clocked 77 on the All-Weather in the past.

With conditions likely to suit – fast ground and 10f delivered his career best of an 80 ORR and a TS 80 – and a decent draw, there is no reason why Aiya shouldn’t run a massive race today.

Selection:
10pts win – Aiya @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Wednesday Selections: September, 18th 2019

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Leo Minor has fallen a long way in his handicap mark since finishing 2nd at Leicester twelve months ago off a 89 mark and running to a 88 topspeed rating that day.

The gelding hasn’t come close ever since but hasn’t ran so badly as the dramatic 22lb drop in OR suggest, in my mind.

The lowered mark and grades he raced in have seen Leo Minor produce a number of fair performances this season, as when last seen of his current 67 rating, a decent runner-up at Bath.

He also ran to a 68 topspeed rating this summer already, backing it up with near similar TS ratings this season a a number of occasions, suggesting he is weighted to win soon of his current handicap mark.

A first time tongue tie is tried today. Possibly that’ll help. Certainly the booking of 3lb top apprentice Cieren Fallon helps. From the plum draw he hopefully can steer Leo Minor to a prominent position grabbing the rail leading to victory this afternoon.

Selection:
10pts win – Leo Minor @ 17/2 MB

Betting

Sunday Selections: September, 15th 2019

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3. 45 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

This is quite a competitive little race, to be honest. However, it looks a hot mess pace wise and could be set up for a filly or mare who needs it fast to produce some sort of strong staying finish.

I feel this could finally be the day of Accomplice, who has been running really well this season, finishing in the money a number of times, without quite getting there. It’s not so much her ability alone as more the fact she really needs things to fall right, given her running style.

Her last two runs she already looked poised, having fallen to a seriously low handicap mark. Her runs were eye-catching, but she had too much to do both times. Last time out was the clearest of signs, though, that she is ready to win. She trailed the field, but stayed on strongly, weaving through the field, only beaten by three-year-olds in first and second eventually.

Accomplice is now down to an official mark of 54. That is seven pounds lower than she started the turf season and 12lb lower than she started the year, including All-Weather! She won last year a handicap off 66, and achieved seven times already a topspeed rating of 54 plus.

Ground and trip are fine today, the simple test of Ffos Las is sure to suit. A smaller field, likely with a good pace, going against her own sex of a career lowest mark – Accomplice has a prime chance.

Selection:
10pts win – Accomplice @ 8/1 MB

………

3.55 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 5.5f

Competitive only on the surface, and a race, due to ground and course configuration, that requires in-running luck, but I can easily strike out more than half the field on the simple question: well handicapped?

Big Lachie is one who needs all the luck in the world, given he is drawn low, has a habit of starting slowly and therefore will need gaps to open. But that is offset by the simple fact the 5-year-old is tremendously well handicapped.

He has no issues with the firm ground, which is an important factor on lighting fast bath turf today. He has the speed to win over the minimum trip but can stretch out for an additional furlong, no bother. He’s been in good form all year long and has won already of his current 71 handicap mark here at Bath over 5 furlongs earlier this year.

I feel the handicapper has overreacted a little bit in the mean time and has given Big Lachie a massive chance, dropping him down to 71 again – we’ll take it, of course!

He has won last year twice off 75 and has ran nine times in his career to topspeed ratings of 71 plus. He ran this year to TS 75 when he won here back in June, in fact!

He may lose the race right at the start or won’t get the breaks needed – but if he does, he’ll likely be hard to beat. And if no today, there’ll be a tomorrow, certainly.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Lachie @ 15/2 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: September, 13th 2019

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Telescope

5.35 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

There is little in this race that is anywhere near well handicapped, with the exception of Zzoro who looks to have found a tremendous opportunity to get his head in front, and the market has reacted accordingly since favourite Skyman is out.

The six-year-old is a consistent sort, has ran pretty well in a number of races this season already, in line with his handicap mark and not too far off his best, in fact. His last four starts are all excellent pieces of form, particularly in the context of this race.

Drying ground is an issue. All his victories came with cut in the ground. But it may not be so much of an issue, on the hand, given Zzoro’s career best topspeed came over this course and distance on good, good to firm in places!

Zzoro has ran three times to TS 77 and higher. He ran to 75 already this season. What makes him incredibly well handicapped is the vital assistance of highly capably 7lb apprentice Marco Ghiani.

Selection:
10pts win – Zzoro @ 4/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selections: September, 12th 2019

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Balty Boys

2.15 Epsom: Class 5 Handicap, 1m½f

Bombastic has not really honoured his name since last summer. Particularly his last four starts in the old season as well as this year have been poor. However, as a consequence he really dropped to a sexy mark now, one that makes him dangerous to oppose if on song.

Trip and ground will be fine today, Epsom of course always a slight question mark. But fact of the mater is that Bombastic ran four times to a higher topspeed rating than his current – career lowest – handicap mark.

With hot jockey Pat Cosgrave on board I can see him running a big race today, also with a bit of money already coming.

Selection:
10pts win – Bombastic @ 22/1 MB

……….

5.05 Epsom: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This type of course really suits Swanton Blue, who is already a course and distance winner, doing so off 3lb higher than his current handicap mark twelve months ago.

The six-year-old has consistently clocked topspeed ratings that show he can is weighted to go close today, having achieved TS ratings of 64 and over on four occasions. He also ran to 62 only in July, suggesting he is as good as ever, and with the right conditions, i.e. his preferred downhill track, he’ll be contender today of a 63 handicap mark.

Swanton Blue gets the assistance of capable 5lb claimer Toby Eley, for whom this is the only ride today. I see this as another positive in a wide open race.

Selection:
10pts win – Swanton Blue @ 11/1 MB

Betting

Monday Selections: September, 9th 2019

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3. 50 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Escape The City continues to disappoint when expected to run much better. As evens favourite she was beaten in a small field wen last seen – however, she takes another drop in the mark and also moved down to class 5.

Fast ground and 10 furlongs look like an ideal scenario for her. Now down to a rating of 70 the filly is a full 10lb lower than when she started the season. Largely in hotter races this year she wasn’t beaten all that far, actually, suggesting she has retained some ability.

Last season Escape The City ran four times to topspeed ratings of 70 plus, which means any return to form – although maybe running to that sort of level she ran to in higher grade of higher marks earlier this year may also be good enough – will see her go really close in this race.

Freckles looks the main danger in my book. Having won last time out and having ran to a higher tospeed rating than turned out here under a penalty earlier this year, she remains a lively chance.

But I stick with Escape The City, who appears to have a prime chance to get her head in front today. The jockey booking is the cherry on the cake so to speak, given how strongly Hollie Doyle is riding at the moment.

Selection: 
10pts win – Escape The City @ 6/1 MB

Betting

Saturday Selections: September, 7th 2019

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5.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3f

Very few of these have shown any form to shout about, but the one that seems undervalued in the market is the filly Inclyne – likely undervalued given her slightly more exposed profile.

However she is rather unexposed on the All-Weather, after only one start to date, one she won easily last time out here at Kempton over 12 furlongs.

Granted, that was not an overly strong contest, and the pace was slow as well, but the way she quickened and put matters to bed in the final two furlongs as easy as you like was impressive.

It was a performance that I liked particularly in the context of her Nottingham 3rd place, 3/4 of lengths beaten only in a very hot contest that worked out incredibly strongly in the meantime; proving that was probably true form for her to run to such a level.

Interestingly, despite the fact it was not an overly strong race, Inclyne achieved an 82 topspeed rating last months here at Kempton. That’s pretty decent for this grade as well and no other horse in the field has achieved it yet. Inclyne can run of a 78 handicap mark today, so she may have a bit in hand, actually.

I don’t think the drop in trip is an issue. I can see a well run 11 furlongs to suit. The draw is wider than ideal. But that’s the risk worth to take.

Selection:
10pts win –Inclyne @ 5/1 MB

……….

5.05 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

His price continues to drop, and that is not only because of the N/R, I feel: Koditime appears to be incredibly well handicapped having his preferred conditions today, dropping further in the weights as well as in grade.

Only once the 4-year-old raced below class 2 level (apart from maiden company of course) and that was fantastic victory at York over the minimum trip on fast ground last year. Koditime ran to topspeed 93 that day and followed up with another strong runner-up performance at Windsor subsequently, achieving a 95 TS rating.

He was found out in higher grade and has gone backward ever since, despite the use of various headgear. He started this season of a mark of 94 and ran pretty damn well when only two lengths beaten on his seasonal reappearance at York. But he hasn’t kicked on from there which has resulted in his dramatic fall in the handicap mark down to 84 now!

Maybe he lost the appetite for racing, but if there is anything left in him, given he hinted to have retained some ability earlier this season, then he has a massive chance to win today.

Selection:
10pts win – Koditime @ 11.5/1 MB

…….

5.25 Thirsk: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Connections seem to have found a prime opportunity for Aiya to score finally on turf today. This race isn’t all that strong, albeit it is a class 3 Handicap and the gelding remains a turf maiden, so confidence has to be seen in that context.

But the 4-year-old was a little bit unlucky not get his head in front on grass yet, because he got close at Redcar when beaten by a neck. He hasn’t quite followed up, however, as a result has fallen to a sexy handicap mark of 76.

He ran to topspeed 80 in that mentioned Redcar race and clocked 77 on the All-Weather in the past – so with conditions likely to suit it is easy to why money is coming for this lad.

The trip is the question mark. Yes he has won over 1m 4f already, but it certainly stretches him, particularly if he is keen in the early stages of a race which he has shown more than once in the past. So stepping up from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs that will be the delicate job David Allen in the saddle to figure out how to manage, as he also has to deal with a less than ideal draw.

Regardless, overall at given prices Aiya is an intriguing runner here.

Selection:
10pts win – Aiya @ 10/1 MB

Betting

Friday Selections: September, 6th 2019

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Online Alexander & Jamie Spencer

2.55 Haydock: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Muddling affair. Hardly anythings stands out. Does anyone can back the 8-year-old favourite with any sort of confidence? I doubt it. There is value in the market and it lies – in my mind – quite clearly with Youkan.

The 4-year-old is on a fair handicap mark, having proven himself to be competitive of this rating in this type of contest in the past. He’s a Haydock winner, albeit over the minimum trip and has a clear preference for cut in the ground.

I don’t really mind the absence of a 6f victory to date. Youkan is still pretty lightly raced, certainly compared to most in this race and there is a fair chance that with preferred conditions he can pull out a little bit more, if not at least running to his mark, which in turn can well be enough to be in for the win.

Youkan has ran twice already to a 83 topspeed rating, most recently in June at Goodwood over 6 furlongs.

Selection: 
10pts win – Youkan @ 22/1 MB

……..

4.55 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This race looks like a lottery and I’m drawn to bet #10 will go in here. Gunmaker that is, the five-year-old gelding has a poor strike rate but runs well on many occasions, particularly on the All-Weather and over this trip.

He’s fallen to a really low handicap mark now, on the back of a poor effort at Leicester, however here at Newcastle over 7f he ran pretty well in a similar type contest off 3lb higher than today.

In spring this year Gunmaker was placed on three subsequent occasions over 6- and 7 furlongs on the All-Weather of official ratings of 67 and 68, while running to topspeed ratings of 61 and 66. In fact, he has ran on six occasions on the sand to topspeed ratings of 54+.

A young 7lb claimer is in the saddle, pretty inexperienced. We’ll see how that goes. But it is undeniable with an ultra light weight today Gunmaker has a tremendous chance to run big today.

Selection:
10pts win – Gunmaker @ 11/1 MB

Betting

Saturday Selections: August, 31st 2019

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5.15 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

State Of Affair is a fair favourite here, no doubt. With more improvement to come and having run to topspeed close to his current mark he may well be hard to beat. But he is a short price and has to prove he can translate the same sort of form the the sand.

Proven All-Weather performer Ice Canyon looks dramatically overpriced here, though. He has his third start for a new yard and the hood is back on – which is a definite positive.

His debut for trainer Kevin Frost was pretty decent in a hot contest at Chester earlier this month that looks strong form, even more so given he came off a break.

Returning to a course and distance Ice Canyon has produced an AW career best this winter, when an agonisingly close second of mark of 68, running to topspeed 70 then.

Now 3lb lower than that day, with the hood back on, probably race fit and only a single pound above his last winning mark, he looks potentially well handicapped in a field where not many make any appeal.

Selection:
10pts win – Ice Canyon @ 21/1 MB