This looks quite a volatile race judged by the intense market moves. No surprise, though – early season, three-year-olds returning to the track after a winter break, soft ground and a 7 furlong trip. Sounds a bit like the makeup for a good lottery game.
Two individuals appear to be severely overpriced, in my book, however. That is firstly the David Evans trained Lihou from the bottom of the weights. One who started his career early as a juvenile in March last year, he showed some fine form early in the season, but kept following on with other strong runs in autumn as well.
He ran to a TS rating of 81 when runner-up at Chester in a Conditions Stakes over the minimum trip, but seemed to have no issue with staying 7f when runner-up here at Newbury in September at his first and only try very a trip that far – he did so off 4lb higher than today.
Second time over this trip, of a seemingly fair mark, Lihou could well be able to outrun his price tag.
Same can be said for front-running Sparklealot. A progressive sort last year, he won three times, including over 7f on soft ground when last seen.
A 7lb hike in the mark will mean he’ll need to find a bit more improvement, but given this colt ran to a TS rating of 83 that day, there may well be more to come.
Aloysius Lilius looks the sort to improve with age. He already showed plenty of promise as a juvenile over the minimum trip last year, though.
He ran to a TS rating of 73, and the majority of his forms looks rock solid, in fact can be upgraded as they worked out strongly.
A mark off 71 offers opportunity on what is only Aloysius Lilius’s third handicap run. He showed his best on fast ground last year, so both trip and ground will likely suit today in an open contest.
Cuttin’ Edge is still relatively unexposed on turf and has fallen to a tasty mark on his return to the green grass. The 5-year-old won last November an Apprentice Handicap at Lingfield over a mile ine fine style of 2lb higher than his current rating.
He wasn’t able to follow up with another success during the winter, but his latest effort looked much better, so he may be nearing to find some form again.
Back on turf, however for the first time over a mile, and 9lb lower than when last seen on this surface, I feel he could be well-in by a few pounds, as he’s already ran to a TS rating of 65 in the past and first time blinkers may edge out a bit improvement also.
With the new headgear I expect him to be ridden positively, which always is an advantage at Windsor I reckon.
For a number of years at this exact time we have the same debate and hear the same, old, tired arguments: no, for once I don’t mean the one the hypocrites from PETA try to stir up; I’m talking about fiery debate around the challenge – or perceived lack of such – the Grand National as a race does provide for horses and jockeys since the modification of the fences.
There seems to be an ever increasing – certainly rather vocal – minority of racing people, who feel that the changes made throughout the last decade have reduced the Grand National to a race more akin to a “glorified hurdle” – a race that’s not “what it used to be”.
Let this sink in: the fact fallers have been greatly reduced in the last number of years – and with that casualties completely avoided up until this year – is cited as the main reason to conclude the Grand National has lost its appeal as a spectacle.
I beg to differ and viewers seem to have a different perspective as well: nearly 10 million tuned in to watch ITV’s coverage of the Grand National – the peak audience was up by more than a million viewers compared to last year.
Sure, those numbers – as always with viewing figures – can’t be taken at face value, but they are a fair indication for the fact that the audience for the Grand National isn’t turned off by the perceived “lack of spectacle”. Much the opposite, it seems.
Racegoers didn’t mind either: a sell-out 50.000 crowd flooded through the gates on Saturday. They seem to enjoy the spectacle, even if the fences are much smaller than they used to be a decade ago.
Yes, the Grand National has changed. Fences have have been altered. They are easier to jump, more forgiving and the race has become much safer for horse and rider. Different horses are suited by this test now. The race is more about stamina and not as great a test of jumping skills as it was in the past.
Those in charge of the sport – often slated recently, and more often than not, rightly so – made drastic decisions after the infamous 2012 Grand National.
Those safety changes have resulted in the the desired outcome: only one fatality (Up For Review, 2019), plus 84% of fences have produced the same or lower rate of fallers/unseated/brought downs since then. Also only seven fallers/unseated/brought downs in yesterday’s Grand National was one of the smallest numbers ever.
This is fundamentally good news. The race has become safer. Did this added safety aspect take away from the spectacle? Absolutely not, in my view. In fact, it has helped to attract classier horses to run in the National.
Hence I’m still looking forward to the Grand National every single year. I still rate it as the pinnacle of jump racing. I still adore all those 40 horses and jockeys for their bravery and skills.
And I firmly believe the Grand National remains a fabulous test: a distance of 4 miles & 2 furlongs (6.907 km) & 30 fences of different heights to be negotiated – no exactly a walk in the park.
Mind, even though the race is safer and slightly “less of a challenge”, it stills is a tough race to complete. Despite all safety measures of recent times, there was one casualty – and less than half the field finished the race on Saturday. So, it clearly isn’t without its challenges, still.
And that brings me to Tiger Roll. The fact he’s completed back-to-back victories in 2019 and not in 1979 doesn’t make it less a remarkable achievement. It IS a remarkable achievement!
I didn’t back the little horse. But as soon as was clear none of my selections wouldn’t get near winning, I was roaring the Tiger home. What a true champion he is. A safer National it might be, but the fact remains it is a tough race to win, let alone do it twice – even in this day and age. Tiger Roll: the king of National Hunt racing!
I’m quite interested in the Ger Lyons trained filly Palabres. She ran incredibly well on debut last year in a red hot maiden that has thrown up a few good subsequent winners – Palabres herself running to a 61 TS rating under hands and heels that day.
She didn’t live up to the promise in three more starts, finishing down the field on each occasion. Ger Lyons suggesting the filly was mentally not ready, though:
“Maybe it was immaturity that was preventing her from showing on track what we thought we were seeing at home.”
He also expects her to be ready to go today. Off a lowly handicap mark, Palabres could easily be well handicapped now, also stepping up in trip – if she’s got a mind for racing. Her debut run certainly implies the existence of talent.
Slight worries about the trip and ground and also the wide draw. But if she’s well-in here, as I imagine she is, with also a bit of stamina on the sire side available, Palabres looks an overpriced individual in this open contest.
It’s unusual for me to get involved in a hot favourite. The times I do it? It usually backfires. So this should be the kiss of death for Apple’s Jade today.
Nonetheless, I simply can not let the 6/4 odds on offer go, for this supreme mare in a race that’s at her mercy, as long as she turns up back in form – in my book she’s a much bigger favourite and I would expected her touching odds-on.
She probably would be a long odds-on favourite if not for her ‘flop’ in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. Recency bias is a funny thing: only a few weeks ago Apple’s Jade was deemed nearly unbeatable – that was the opinion of some smart racing experts.
Today, in a weaker contest, she’s deemed merely a 40% chance. Seriously? I’m puzzled. True: the seven-year-old was disappointing at Cheltenham. On the other hand she had fair excuses for an uncharacteristic performance, as we found out afterwards. Right from the start the mare didn’t travel and it was obvious she wasn’t right on the day.
You’d bet connections wouldn’t let the superstar mare run today if she wouldn’t have shown to be back on song at home. So, trusting she’s fine from a physical standpoint today, she’s the best horse in this race by a country mile.
Further to this: personally I had my doubts whether Cheltenham as a track could see Apple’s Jade to best effect. We still don’t know, but suspicion remains it may not. Hence a return to a flatter track, like Aintree, will be to her advantage. In fact she is a course winner already.
The step up in trip, on what looks fair ground today, is no issue. She’s won over 3 miles this season – in fact she is 2 from 2 over 3 miles – the additional distance will not bother her either, I believe.
So, if back to the form Apple’s Jade showed all season long, bar the most recent run, she is hard to oppose today and should convert this penalty kick.
Selection:
10pts win – Apple’s Jade @ 6/4 WH
………
3.50 Leopardstown: Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, 1m 2f
Another rare occurrence: a bet on an Irish race. Over the last 14 months I’ve had only five bets, despite calling this little island my home. Betting wise it’s a tough place for me, though. Can fortunes change today?
Obviously the Ballysax is a wide open race, with little recent form on offer and you have to go by juvenile form, without knowing how it truly translates to this new season with a winter in between.
That says I figure Sydney Opera House looksover priced here. He’s a small drift in the market, to a handy price, I feel. He’s the one who ran to the highest time speed rating and joint highest RPR last season. And that despite conditions not always favouring him.
The son of Australia is obviously supremely well bred, a half-brother to a Melbourne Cup winner and Irish Derby second. He showed a lot of promise in a handful of starts as a juvenile, including a close runner-up effort in the Criterium De Saint Cloud when last seen.
Sydney Opera House looks bound to improve as a 3-year-old, even more so when stepping up in trip. But I also have the feeling a softer surface will see him to much better effect.
So, if ready today, he should run a big race on the rain softned Leopardstown ground. And in doing so, he could put himself firmly into the Derby pciture.
Selection:
10pts win – Sydney Opera House @ 7/2 MB
Can Tiger Roll become the first multiple winner in 40 years since Red Rum? It’s the question on everyone’s lips and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who’s not wishing the little horse the very best of luck to achieve the status of a living legend.
For many Tiger Roll is already a legend. A multiple Cheltenham Festival winner, one who’s been around forever – or so it seems – the nine-year-old holding on to win the National twelve months ago; looks even better than ever this season!
He kicked proceedings off with a Grade 2 hurdle success on his way to the Festival where he then slaughtered his rivals in the Cross-Country Chase. A performance which in turn has catapulted him firmly to the front of the market in the 2019 Grand National, more so to one of the shortest priced National favourites of all time.
Given this is the Grand National with 40 runners, where luck or the lack of it, can play a huge role in getting a clear run round the course, Tiger Roll, currently priced at 4/1, is a laughable price.
Or not? The 9 pound hike in the weights does appear to be rather fair, particularly after his Cheltenham demolition job. He’s a good jumper, a classy horse with speed and guts, let’s not forget he’s a previous Triumph Hurdle winner also.
So, if you run this race four times, will Tiger Roll win it at least once?
Possibly. I still struggle to see value in the price, even though I’d absolutely love to see him winning. But I’ve got to look at bigger prices here – thankfully there’re three much bigger prices I’m incredibly excited about.
History tells its own story: a 7-year-old hasn’t won the National for quite a long time. Hence the task on hand for Ramses De Teillee looks a daunting one. Nonetheless, for his age he’s got plenty of experience already – ten runs over fences, including a runner-up performance in the Walsh National and fine 2nd place in the Haydock Grand National Trail when last seen.
Ramses De Teillee is officially 5lb well-in; so, on the weights front he looks a sexy contender. He does that also on both RPR- and TS ratings, given he has improved in each of his last two runs, suggesting the profile of a horse with more to come.
The ground won’t hold any fears, the trip should suit, only his jumping is a slight question mark – but he may get a little wiser with age and experience now.
Ever since romping home in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown at the end of last season the Grand National seemed the target for Step Back. The 9-year-old has relatively few miles on the clock, therefore is clearly another one who could improve quite a bit for this unique test.
He hasn’t done a lot in two starts this season, clearly being minded and connections believing his current handicap mark warrants protection. He certainly stays, acts in soft conditions and despite having only six starts over fences, has strong form in big handicaps as well.
Walk In The Mill is a rare National course winner in the field. He ran away with the Beacher Handicap Chase here last December, so undoubtedly possesses plenty of stamina, given the 3m 2f event was run in deep ground -which was also a career best effort.
A progressive handicapper over the last years, Walk In The Mill has been minded ever since the Beacher run; two fair hurdle efforts brought him along nicely for a big run.
Selections:
3.33pts win – Ramses De Teillee @ 30/1 MB
3.33pts win – Walk In The Mill@ 31/1 MB
3.33pts win – Step Back@ 31/1 MB
Emenem hasn’t won in a while, however he’s dropping to a tasty mark, now 11lb lower than hist last success, which came over course and distance in December 2017 in higher class.
The 5-year-old has two runs under his belt since returning from a break – particularly his comeback run looks a strong piece of form, even if it doesn’t appear to be one on the surface.
He was found out subsequently in much higher grade over 12 furlongs. A return to 10f in class 4 off 79 should see Emenem to good effect in a pretty winnable race.
His CD record is excellent, and given he ran to a TS rating of 82 only back in August should hopefully mean that if Emenem can find back to some sort of that form, he’ll be hard to beat today. A fine draw is a bonus to his chances.
Andrea Atzeni has only one ride today, and that is in this low-grade handicap at Lingfield. He’s riding Tavener again, whom he already steered to three victories in the past, most recently last Tuesday.
The seven-year-old gelding is on a roll, having his fifth start this months. He’s finished with plenty of credit most of the times, coming agonisingly close on his penultimate run and finally got the head in front when last seen.
Tavener did that nicely from the front running good fractions and earning a fine TS rating as well. He’s turned out under a penalty today, but given past form and ratings he ran to, it seems reasonable to assume he still is potentially well handicapped.
A good draw will certainly help today, even though he may face a little bit of competition for the pace, he should be in an ideal position swinging for home and have enough in the tank to win another low-grade race over a CD he thoroughly enjoys.
A magic week of racing is over – an excellent week from a personal perspective on the betting front: 145pts profit for a 72.50% ROI; but more importantly Cheltenham provided – as is usually does – the stage for incredible stories, memorable moments, tears of joy and sadness – four days full of drama are well and truly behind us!
Gold Cup Joy
Willie Mullins won the Gold Cup – finally! “I’d sort of resigned myself to not winning a Gold Cup” – the Irishman could be forgiven for his negative thinking because with more than a circuit to go it looked like another year of misery as three of his four horses in the race were already gone!
Thankfully not Al Boum Photo, who was the “last man standing” for the Mullins camp – and my 22/1 selection for the Gold Cup (alongside Shattered Love who faded away in the closing stages) – was always travelling strongly in the hands of Paul Townend.
Sitting at the back of the field initially, Al Boum Photo made smooth progress, jumping well, Townend sitting confidently, letting his mount find a rhythm; turning for home he couldn’t hold him back for much longer as Al Boum Photo was tanking along, still hard on the bridle.
Despite a mistake at the second last, now asked for full effort, Al Boum Photo returned every call to win the Gold Cup a shade cosily!
The seven-year-old proved that his Tremore run on New Years Day wasn’t a fluke and that the glimpses of brilliance he showed last season in fact were real. It was also a hugely rewarding success for Paul Townend after what happened last year at Punchestown when Al Boum Photo looked all but to secure a Grade 1 success, only for Townend to take the horse out before jumping the last.
Can Al Boum Photo defend his crown? We have been here before. It’s such a difficult task as defending champion Native River had to find out.
Many believed he could do it, but there were early signs of concern as Richard Johnson had to encourage his mount from an early stage. In fairness, the brave Native River responded and battled to the line, ultimately finishing in a creditable yet well beaten 4th place.
Colin Tizzard lamented afterward not having used blinkers. Personally I don’t think it would have made a huge deal of a difference, to be honest. Native River didn’t have the legs to go with the three horses in front of him in the end. Neither had Clan Des Obeaux. His bubble burst.
Mitigating factors can be put forward for Presenting Percy’s flat performance. Not so much the preparation, which wasn’t ideal as had been discussed for weeks and weeks, but more so because he was found to be lame after the Gold Cup.
Female Jockeys Rule Over Cheltenham
Rachael Blackmore, Lizzy Kelly, Bryony Frost – three top class female riders who won races at this years Festival. Blackmore scored twice, though it was Bryony Frost who got the girls off the mark in terms of a first Grade 1 Festival winner over hurdles or fences.
Still challenging for the Irish jockey championship, Blackmore with close to 20 rides over the course of the four days, set a new record for female jockeys – the fact female riders achieved a higher strike rate vs. their male counterparts (4-46; 8.7% vs. 5.3%; 24-452) is an interesting side note.
I don’t want to be patronising. Nonetheless, this is a story that goes beyond racing, particularly in these times where equality is such a strong topic.
It shows that if given the opportunity, female riders can be as successful as male jockeys. It shows not everything is about riding the strongest finish but also about riding a smart race: knowing your mount, judging the pace right and finding an advantageous position to challenge when it matters most.
What I loved most about Bryony Frost in particular when she won the Ryanair Chase on Thursday were the words the found after the race speaking to a huge TV audience: emotional, yet smart. The way she spoke about the horse, about adversity, putting her own emotions into words which felt warm and relatable at the same time – a message not all jockeys are equally gifted in transporting to the general public.
One Era Ends Another Begins
Age catches up with anyone. It has caught up with Un De Sceaux and Faugheen. Both eleven-years-old now; the fall has been gradually, nonetheless it’s clear their younger rivals have fresher and faster legs these days.
I fancied Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair Chase, actually. But truth is you knew his time was up when Paul Townend buried the 2017 winner of this very race at the back of the field. What eventual winner Frodon did you would have expected Un De Sceaux to do if at his brilliant best.
Faugheen fared a little bit better. He was there until the last in with a chance. Still, as soon as Paisley Park shifted into 6th gear the former Champion Hurdler was a beaten horse. He finished a creditable third, and he may well be able to go to Punchestown and win another race.
But as far as the Festival is concerned Faugheen won’t have many more stories to write, neither does Un De Sceaux. They don’t have to. Both horses have bee brilliant throughout their respective careers. They owe us nothing.
In saying that, the mentioned Paisley Park looks a staying hurdler for the ages. How he went from appearing briefly in trouble to looking absolutely irresistible within a matter of seconds was one of those “WOW” moments this week.
It can be the start of the new era. Comparisons with Big Bucks have been made. They aren’t far off the truth I reckon.
Thumps Up ITV
Good news on the TV front: average viewing figure rose 18.5% from last year to 993,000, while peak daily viewing numbers and overall share also saw positive rises.
As record crowds flooded trough the gates, record numbers were glued to the telly as well: Tuesday, Thursday and Friday of this year’s festival saw the highest average viewing numbers since records began in 2003.
Having the luxury of choosing between RTV and ITV at home, I chose to stick with ITV after day one. I thoroughly enjoyed their coverage. From the morning show to the coverage of the actual races – it was excellent, with good people before and behind the camera.
Yes, they speak a simpler language on ITV than they do on RTV. Francesa was asking some seemingly ‘dumb’ questions. One shouldn’t forget, though, the audience on ITV is a different one than on RTV. So overall, thumb up for team ITV – my biggest compliment for them: their genuine love for the sport comes across in every shot and every discussion.
0 British-Bred Winners
I only noticed this fact when reading the opening comment in the Irish Field yesterday morning – even though the numbers were low in years before, not a single British-bred winner at this years festival must be a concern.
Contrary, France closed the gap to Ireland. It’s 14-14 for French-vs. Irish-bred winners this time.
The likes of Klassical Dream, Duc De Genievres, Frodon or Al Boum Photo are all French-bred and were some of the most impressive winners of the entire week. Good news for the French breeding industry!
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There is so much more to say. I could go on for hours. So many memorable performances. So many stories to tell. Also a few sad ones – they are unavoidable in our sport.
It’s been a wonderful week of horse racing over all. The sport is as popular as ever, if not even gaining in popularity again! Long may this trend continue.
Back to bred and butter now: class 6 Handicaps on a Wednesday night at Kempton, Wolverhampton or at Southwell, not that Britain’s only fibresand track owns a bunch of floodlights! Butnot for long.
Even though the sky over county Kildare Is rain filled at the moment (and has been for the entire last week pretty much!) spring is around the corner and with that comes the flat season – the Doncaster Lincoln, the Dubai World Cup and also the opening of the new Curragh. It’s gonna be exciting!
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