This weekend is always one of my favourite racing weekends of the year – the Durban July, Eclipse Stakes and the German Derby. As a racing fan it’s glorious.
The pick of the lot for me personally is the July. My favourite flat race in the entire international racing calendar. Such an intriguing puzzle to solve, being the Grade 1 Handicap it is, bringing the Classic generation and the best of the older horses together.
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3.35 Sandown: Group 1 – Eclipse Stakes, 1m 2f
All the excuses made for City Of Troy’s poor showing in the Guineas seemed spot on as the hype turned real when the son of Justify demolished the Derby field at Epsom.
It was one of the most impressive Derby performances I’ve seen, undoubtably. He had to overcome a less than ideal #1 draw and had to come further back than you would have wanted. He still managed to win – not just win, he sprinted home in the closing stages, compared to all his rivals.
Stamina clearly came to the fore as he outstayed all his main rivals thanks to a strong, sustained effort from four furlongs out. He was a different horse to the one seen at Newmarket, where he never seemed happy at all.
In this years renewal of the Eclipse City Of Troy is the outstanding favourite, with his main rival in the market having finished 8+ lengths behind him at Epsom.
Saying that, Sandown over 10 furlongs poses a completely different test to the Derby run at quirky Epsom. No question, City Of Troy likely has all the tools to succeed here as well. But there is that nagging doubt in my mind, given what we saw at Newmarket.
The fast early pace seemed to take him off his feet that day, more than anything. Whereas at Epsom, it wasn’t an overly taxing gallop, and he had plenty of time to settle and eventually relax.
Given his stable mate Hans Andersen will likely move forward and then tries to set the ideal tempo, it could go all just perfectly to plan… unless the likes of Ghostwriter or perhaps See The Fire spoil the party.
They could press for the lead as well. Both can be quite keen certainly Ghostwriter enjoys going forward forward, while See The Fire, keen over a mile, may want to get on with things over this new trip. Surely both wouldn’t want a sedate pace, and leave it up to Aiden O’Brien’s pace maker to decide their fate.
If there’s a a bit of a pace battle early on, and as a result over this shorter trip City Of Troy may not have the luxury of relaxing early on, I can see him being vulnerable. But only then. No doubt, the rain has helped and enhanced his overall chances.
The aforementioned Ghostwriter – fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby is an intriguing runner. He’s been running consistently to a high level and remains unexposed over this trip. The rain is a question mark, although he did well on heavy in the French Derby.
The 4-year-old Al Riffa is a frustrating sort, though with the rain coming, may enjoy this specific test over this course and distance and remains a relatively lightly raced colt with possible upside.
They all will have to improve significantly to get anywhere near to City Of Troy, if he translates his Epsom form the Eclipse. In saying that, if he doesn’t there’re alternatives.
The most intriguing rival should prove Dancing Gemini, though. Obviously I backed him the last two times, and still remember with agony how he just came close to win the French Guineas at Longchamp, if not for a shocking ride/tactical decision in that race.
In mind it’s clear that Dancing Gemini was the last two times seriously unfortunate not to finish closer to the winner than he eventually did. Hence I’m delighted to see McMonagle replaced in the saddle. He’s one of the worst judges of pace (in my unqualified view as armchair jockey). Kieran Shoemark is a significant upgrade.
While Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly at Longchamp, he didn’t looked like getting home at Epsom over 12 furlongs. One could argue, though: the way the race panned out for him had a lot to with the fact that he didn ran on to finish in the money.
Saying that, perhaps he had to be ridden as patiently as he was to have any chance to finish the race well. Yet, trailing in last position for a majority of the race was a wasted opportunity from a good draw after having a fine start to the race as well.
From his position so far back he had to use a lot of energy to make progress, quickening right into the fastest part of the race, while having to go wide and enduring interference around Tattenham Corner.
Despite all of this, remarkably Dancing Gemini still finished third fastest over the last three furlongs. It was a serious performance from a seriously talented colt.
It’s not rocket science to conclude the drop to 10 furlongs will be a positive for the colt though. He showed speed for a mile in Group 1 company while finishing strongly over that trip, and did well enough over 12 furlongs, without looking like properly staying it.
The nagging doubt that persists is whether he’s a horse that simply catches the eye, always promising to take the next step, without ever truly making it. He’s yet to run a three-figure speed rating, while catching the eye for various reasons in all his prior starts as well.
At this point in time I remain a believer. Believing that Dancing Gemini can improve for experience, for the trip and the track. If that’s the case, I do believe he’ll give COT certainly a proper race in the closing stages.
When writing this yesterday I thought somewhere around 8 or 9 would the price to get him; waking up this morning, as the ground turned soft, seeing much bigger than that on the Exchanges surprised me. In fact, his best form comes with juice in the ground, so that, I feel, can only enhance his chances today.
10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 14/1 (SM)
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3.00 Greyville: Grade 1 – Durban July, 1m 3f
This looks as open a renewal of the Durban July as there has been for a while. Mike De Kock said on preview night he feels the three-year-olds have the upper hand these days, but personally I’m not so sure.
From a handicapping perspective not too many horses scream “well in” but to De Kock’s point, 3-year-old colt Green With Envy has the makings of a fair favourite and on the basis of Weight For Age.
The way he won the Daily News 2000 when last seen where took the scenic route around the final bend, coming from well off the pace, was mightily impressive. There is every chance he’ll get the additional distance and can improve again, especially at a track he’s 3 from 3.
The danger is the whether he’ll get a good trip. Green With Envy is usually ridden stone cold, one who’s winning his races thanks to a devastating turn of foot.
Two issues with that in the July: it’s a big 18-runner field. He’s never encountered that. It’s a different beast compared to winning a 9-runner Cape Derby with plenty of space.
He may not get a perfect trip, and crucially, a possibly sedate enough pace may see his turn of foot blunted as he’ll have to quicken into fastest part of the race, having to make up a lot of ground, potentially.
Dolphin’s Cup Trial winner Oriental Charm is another dangerous 3-year-old, if he can stay the trip. He likes this track, won the Group 3 Trial nicely, was a strong runner-up in the Grade 2 1900 and will move forward, likely enjoying the run of the race.
Saying that, stamina is a question, given he’s yet to win beyond 9 furlongs and seemed to run out of gas in the Cape Derby.
Last years impressive July winner Winchester Mansion enjoyed the perfect race twelve months ago, as well as the perfect preparation leading up to the big race.
A bigger weight, far from a perfect preparation, he’d need everything to go absolutely right on the day to see him go back to back.
Obviously you can’t dismiss last years runner-up See It Again who travelled like the winner with 200m to go, but ultimately got outstayed by Winchester Mansion in a thriller to the line.
He’s been running to strong form earlier this year in hot races, but only was seen once since January in preparation, suggesting not all went totally to plan. On the other hand, that “prep run” four weeks ago was an excellent 3rd in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge.
He’s got to defy top-weight here and that adds to the difficulty, as does his hold-up running style if the pace is slow.
Second highest weight in the race Royal Victory can’t be discounted after winning the Grade 1 Champions Challenge back in April. He raced only twice over 10 furlongs, and won two Grade 1’s. If he can stretch out over the extended trip here, he must go close.
This years Met winner Double Superlative gets the assistance of Danny Muscutt once again, who’s flying in for this race. The talk is that he’s a little short of peak fitness, though I’d be more worried about the trip.
Lightly raced Barbaresco was badly interfered with in the Daily News, was hanging in the home straight as well, and yet he stayed on the extremely well in the closing stages.
He should get home over the extended July trip, may have more to offer and could be ridden a bit closer to the pace this time from the #2 draw. He’s a real chance and the 3-year-old I’d fancy most today.
However, in my view, they all have to beat Justin Snaith’s gelding Future Swing. The son of Futura, is the pick of South Africa’s superstar jockey Richard Fourie, and that’s a vote of confidence in itself.
Snaith has been incredibly positive about Future Swing, who enjoyed a perfect prep, with the July as his target this season: a lovely comeback run in April, followed by staying on strongly to land the Grade 2 1900 here at Greyville over 9.5f.
He’s not an unexposed horse, with 18 starts and 6 wins on his CV. However, he’s one, you could argue, who had this specific day in mind for a long time, having been saved somewhat to not show the handicapper his true class, especially over these sort of trips.
In his three seasons he raced only three times beyond 9 furlongs: there was the aforementioned Grade 2 victory, and there was a Listed success over 10 furlongs as well as back in January the ultra impressive win in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Cup over 1m 4.5f.
He’s got the speed for shorter trips and the stamina to see out the July distance without a problem. A gelding who comes into his own now as he gets older, having strengthened up significantly. Versatile, with the top rider on board, a lovely draw in #4 to move forward from, with Snaith saying they’ll ride him positively.
Yes, from a pure handicapping perspective he’s giving kilos away to th likes Oriental Charm and Without A Question. But the July is a different race and trip. I fancy him to be a stronger stayer than those two, no matter the weight.
If the pace isn’t too hot, that will ensure he’s going to be in a prime position and whatever way it pans out I can see the scenario that at the top of the straight he’s send on to win the race with his superior stamina seeing him hard to catch.
10pts win – Future Swing @ 10/1 (SM)
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4.00 Beverley: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f
Giselles Defence obviously has a huge chance being able to run off the same 71 mark that saw him win comfortably at Epsom three days ago. Saying that, this is a different track, and the ground possibly faster than he wants it, given the overall profile.
Much more appeal makes God Of Fire coming off a superb seasonal reappearance after changing yards and having been gelded during his absence.
He was an excellent runner-up at Salisbury three weeks ago and should improve for the run, his second for the Kubler yard as a gelding.
That day he was quickly out of the gates, chased the pace but looked still quite fresh as he was hanging around the bend. He was a little bit flat footed and not ideally placed on the inside, also hanging ever so slightly, at a crucial stage of the race between 3 and 2 furlongs from home, where the eventual winner made his decisive move.
God Of Fire eventually found his stride in the closing stages and finished the best in the final furlong, in fact. That was strong race, I thought, and the winner a good one. Only 2lb up for the run, is possibly lenient.
Jim Crowley in the saddle today for a yard in strong form, in a race where the pace could fall into his lap, the wider than normally ideal draw won’t be an issue. God Of Fire should get an easy way toward the front and could be placed in prime position.
10pts win – God Of Fire @ 4/1
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