Tag Archives: Salisbury

Betting

Sunday Selections: April, 29th 2018

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Despite drifting out to a 6/1 SP, Candidate (7/2) won with plenty to spare in the end to make it two on the trot after Mancini kicked this week off in the best possible way a couple of days ago. A hat-trick wasn’t to be, though. Toy Theatre ran well but only managed 3rd place.

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2.30 Salisbury: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

It’s fair to say Pack It In has not shown a lot for his new yard since switching to Alexandra Dunn last summer. Jumping didn’t work out and he never seemed to take to the sand racing during the winter months.

Back on turf things might be different. He returns to grass a full 10lb lower than when finishing a good runner-up at Bath in a class 4 Handicap back in August. He’s also 5lb and 11lb lower than his last two winning marks.

Pack It In has no problem with cut in the ground, in fact it seems to be what he prefers. So the tough going might well be in his favour here. The fact that his two highest time speed ratings (68) came last year off similar handicap marks suggest to me he could potentially incredibly well handicapped now.

Selection:
10pts win – Pack It In @ 6/1 GB

Betting

Friday Selections: 25th August 2017

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That was special, wasn’t it? Yet again. Enable keeps giving and giving and giving. What a star filly once more in the care of John Gosden. Sure, she was entitled to win and to win with something to spare. Still, to demolish her high class rivals in the way she did – you simply have to be impressed.

All systems go for the Arc now. She is a short favourite to land the biggest of them all. If she turns up in top form she will take plenty of beating. That says we know the Arc is a unique race in its own right and in a big field the draw can alienate chances in the blink of an eye.

Anyways; that’s for another day. For now, sit back and enjoy racing at its best:

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6.20 Salisbury: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

27 alerts in my tracker this morning – yet only one single selection remains after a long morning of intense study. This week has not been a lucky one so far. Can a Richard Hannon trained colt turn the table?

Galactic is his name and he is quite a well bred son of Roderic O’connor. Three obligatory starts in maidens, now first time in a Nursery and upped to a more suitable 1 mile trip – off a pretty handy opening mark, I reckon Galatctic can go really well in this very winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Galactic @ 11/2 Bet365

 

Betting

Thursday Selections – 17th August 2017

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Wolfcatcherjack was an impressive winner today, though it could have been a super day if Kryptos wouldn’t have been beaten by a head in a tight finish. Scoones and Regal Mirage were not quite good enough, though.

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4.50 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Ryan Moore on board for the sole runner of father Gary at Salisbury – interesting. Grand Myla is also interesting because she made an okay seasonal reappearance at Bath last month and drops now to a career lowest- and more realistic mark.

Conditions should suit and she has a good draw. Stripping fitter for the latest run and potentially with a bit of improvement left given she was a late foal, I feel she is overpriced here.

Selection:
10pts win – Grand Myla @ 8/1 William Hill

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6.30 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Call Me Grumpy deserves another chance after he was disappointingly turned over odds-on the last two times, though the Carlisle effort was most disappointing. However he seemed not to enjoy that experience that day, and a simpler test at straight Yarmouth may suit better.

He drops in class but remains largely up against older horses with not too much to worry from the two other 3yo’s in the field. De Sousa gets the leg up which is a boost given his record for the stable and at this track plus he rode Call Me Grumpy to victory at Sandown on handicap debut.

Selection:
10pts win – Call Me Grumpy @ 4/1 Bet365

Betting

Wednesday Selections – 16/08/2017

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Two on the bounce – Incentive took the 2.15 at Ffos Las in excellent style today (advised 12/1, R4 applies). The filly took – as hoped – full advantage of a career lowest mark with conditions to suit.

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3.20 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Kryptos has improved with each start since switching yards, running really well on debut for John Barry returning from a long break at Newmarket. On the day beaten in third only by individuals rated 91 and 100 now.

Race fit he went to Chester and finished from a near impossible position super strongly to win on handicap debut. Form and ratings suggest he could easily follow up off his revised mark. Conditions pose no trouble, only the draw is a slight concern.

Selection:
10pts win – Kryptos @ 6/1 Bet365

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5.15 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Rarely you see horses winning four on the bounce, even less so completing a five-timer! Regal Mirage, though, has excellent credentials to achieve the feast.

Massively improved with experience and going handicapping, the three year old has matched or exceeded his handicap mark both for time speed- and RP rating the last two times, suggesting he continues to improve and may have still more to offer.

Conditions and trip cause no trouble and his prominent and hard hitting racing style should be perfect for a track like Beverley. Only one other 3yo in the field – I believe there is one more win in this lad.

Selection: 
10pts win – Regal Mirage @ 5/2 Bet365

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8.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The Fanshawe yard usually goes really well in these type of races during the summer and has a fantastic chance with handicap debutante Scoones to score.

The 3yo had three obligatory maiden runs without setting the world alight however has been gelded after the first two runs and subsequently travelled like the winner coming off a break at Chelmsford lto just to fade away late without being ridden too hard.

An opening mark of 65 looks potentially lenient given he matched this in terms of RPR in his last run and his sire has a super record on the All-Weather plus the mare is prolific in producing successful offspring.

Selection:
10pts win – Scoones @ 5/1 Skybet

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8.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

SP’s in the three maiden runs Wolfcatcherjack had this year are a clear indicator his future would be going handicapping. This moment has arrived and at the same time he steps up dramatically in trip for a trainer who is the master of exploiting the handicapping system.

Wolfcatcherjack is pretty well bred, hailing from a fine family and it is rather likely that he will easily leave his maiden form behind quickly. His opening mark looks stiff enough for what he has achieved so far but taking everything into calculation it may well be a gift.

Selection:
10pts win – Wolfcatcherjack @ 11/4 Paddy Power

Racing Talk

Hit It A Bomb Returns

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Finally we have the chance to see Hit It A Bomb hitting the race track as a three year old.! The most impressive winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – that’s now almost ten months ago – had plenty of problems early on this season and missed several assignments.

But Aiden O’Brien said the son of War Front is ready to go today to start of his campaign in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown.

Question mark are all over the place though: did he train on? Has he retained his brilliant turn of foot despite the long lay-off? Is he fit enough to beat a more or less competitive, albeit given his own potential class, rather ordinary looking bunch of mostly well seasoned horses?

Here’s hoping. Hit It A Bomb produced one of the most memorable performances of recent time when landing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – from the widest draw having to finish from an impossible position turning for home…. it was spectacular!

I suspect there is plenty enough left to work on for this very first step back into racing action today; as always with O’Brien horses, bigger targets loom large.

All I want to see today is him having trained on, finishing well, without getting a hard race. Victory is not necessarily the main objective here.

That obviously opens the door for someone else to step up and land a nice paycheck. Custom Cut, given he’s only 2lb rated below Hit It A Bomb, looks most likely do be the one benefiting from a potential lack of fitness of the favourite.

He hasn’t really show all that much this season though, certainly he’s not in the same form as all the years before, so whether he can still run to his current rating of 114 is questionable.

It’s not a betting race for me at all, but Jim Bolger can have horses ready after a break, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tribal Beat, last years second in the Killavullan Stakes, to run a big race here.

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Thursday Selections:

Two winners yesterday. Those were balsam for the ill-treated betting soul. Northern Thunder made most of a lack of pace in his race at Kempton and held on gamely, whereas it seemed the penny dropped for Sea The Stars son Space Mountain at Beverly.

1.50 Beverly: Street Jazz @ 11/1 Skybet
3.40 Salisbury: Bess of Hardwick @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

United Kingdom

Saliisbury: Radhaadh deserves another chance

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Newmarket July Course

4.00 Salisbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Raw Impulse looks a strong favourite but at 9/4 is hardly a bet for me. Fellow three year old Radhaadh seems a big price compared, though. The filly got off the mark in a Chelmsford maiden over 10f two starts ago and did that in most impressive style.

Upped in trip to 1m 3f the next time in a hot handicap, she was racing for the lead, kicked on to win the race with the race leader over 3f out, however faded inside the final furlong. The slight drop in trip will surely suit better and the jury is still out whether she is up to her current mark.

She is related to smart Munaaser, though and well bred, which suggests there could be still more to come. She has the perfect draw today to accommodate her aggressive racing style – only concern I really have is the ground. She may well prefer a quicker surface. The sun over Salisbury will help though to dry out the last patches of soft… hopefully.

Radhaadh @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Thursday Selections: Moohaarib can bounce back

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Banging on the post at the moment…. and it hurts. Massive performance from Commodore at Kempton last night, overcame the widest draw and finished strongly… however to win you had to be positioned in front pack of the race, where the eventual winner came from. another runner-up effort. It’s one of those losing runs I guess…

4.25 Salisbury: Sovereign Stakes (Group 3), 1m

Plenty of classy individuals in the line-up; last years winner Captain Cat will have a shot again but may find this a hotter renewal. Custom Cut at head of the field is likely to run his usual race from the front. He’s always dangerous if allowed to lead. His penalty won’t make it easy when it’s crunch time, though.

Classy Kodi Bear heads the challenge of the classic generation. His weigh for age allowance is a big asset and he hasn’t done much wrong this year. He’ll be very competitive, however I feel he is not the right price in this competitive field. Tullius drops back to 1m which may not suit on the quick ground. But he certainly has found his form again.

Even the big outsiders Short Squeeze and Dark Emerald can’t be discounted here and have a chance to pick up some price money. But the 6/1 for progressive Moohaarib looks over the top. He flopped in the Lockinge, but that was a Group 1 and he may not have shown his true class that day. Imagine he wouldn’t have run that day and would come into today with his penultimate form, he’d be clear favourite I guess.

He looked smart when winning a Listed contest at Ascot, travelling like a dream and never saw the whip. If he can find back to that form he’ll be hard to beat I feel.

Moohaarib @ 6/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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6.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

You can easily discount half the field here, but the front two horses in the market have strong credentials to be the ones fighting it out. Alfajer judged on her recent efforts hast to go close; whether she will truly stay the trip is another matter. For that reason, as well as her revised mark, she is short enough a price.

The most likely winner is Wee Jean in my eyes. She can make it three on the bounce tonight. The trip may not quite her optimum but she stays it and while she has to overcome a high enough mark, tonight is the ideal opportunity to do so.

Nonetheless the best value in the field represents 9/1 chance Sulaalaat. Forgive her the last performance at Newmarket, she is better judged on her strong Listed effort at Royal Ascot where she attempted to make all. The mile trip should be what she wants judged on her pedigree, and she probably hasn’t shown us her best yet.

In my eyes she deserves another chance and today is a good opportunity to prove whether she is a half decent filly or not. First time head gear could make a big difference, and if can squeeze out a bit of improvement, she will go very close here.

Sulaalaat @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Mujassam bound for a big run

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5.10 York: Nursery, Class 3, 5f

Astley Hall looks overpriced here if he could find back to the form he showed on his impressive debut run. That day he looked extremely green throughout, completely messing up the start but still was overcame that all to win well in a decent maiden.

He was disappointing in his two starts subsequently, but now dropped down to 5f again on quick ground should help on his nursery debut. An opening mark off 77 doesn’t look impossible.

He has been gelded since his last run There are positive sire stats for this kind of procedure and Richard Fahey often gets it right if it comes to geldings.

Astley Hall @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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8.15 Salisbury: Handicap, Class 4, 7f

Roger Varian has only one runner at Salisbury today and that looks significant. His Mujassam is an intriguing contender, dropping in class off a lowered mark with ground likely in his favour. He didn’t show too much in two starts this year but remains with potential.

A gelding now, this may help him to focus a bit better on his racing too. Kyllachy’s often improve as geldings and Varian has a positive track record for first time geldings too. He could go well tonight.

Mujassam @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Progressive Life Less Ordinary Can Bounce Back

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Jamie Spencer

Oh yeah, that feels good – back with a bang last night! After an unbelievable week, with dramatic losses, the new week started SO much better at Ballinrobe. 2 selections, 2 winners – I really needed that. Sherlock Holmes didn’t enjoy the tight track but still managed to win. He’s a nice prospect for the stayers division. Oceania Queen overcame some in-running trouble to get up impressively eventually – both winners drifted to 11/8 and 6/1 SP respectively.

3.45 Salisbury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

This looks a wide open race with plenty of question marks over each and ever runner. So I’m puzzled to see a rather clear favourite emerging with Darshini. Sure, the lightly raced colt with first time headgear may well improve for experience and the new trip, yet it is not a given that he stays, nor that he is capable of overcoming a career highest mark off 90. He’s opposable in my mind.

Process is one of few who is sure to stay the trip as he has form over 12f. He won a mediocre race at Kempton and followed up with a decent runner-up effort at Newmarket, which however implicated that this Nayef son has already reached his limit. He is vulnerable to any improver.

Oceane was only seen in France so far. It’s a tough task assigned today and he is best watched. Simple Verse is a distance winner and was a fine second at Goodwood recently. She could have more to offer but the handicapper takes no chances with her – 5lb up for 3/4l defeat – that’s a bit harsh.

Unexposed Life Less Ordinary won a 12f Handicap at Windsor in very taking style. He was quickly turned out again but the drop in trip as well as softish ground didn’t seem to suit. He travelled like the winner for a long time but hung badly in the closing stages. Back to 12f with quick conditions sure to suit, appeals as an improver.

Roger Charlton’s Marmot won a class 5 Handicap at Brighton recently. He may get the new trip but much more is required here today up in class. Polarisation looks a bad price given his overall record. The step up in trip seems more like the last resort than anything likely to suit.

Man Look is lightly raced and was not disgraced in fourth the last time. As feather weight in this contest he can’t be underestimated. Steady Major is well exposed and hard to fancy.

Verdict: On the prices on offer I feel Life Less Ordinary is the overpriced runner in this field. He looked to have tons in hand when he won at Windsor and travelled equally well the next time for a long time while conditions seemingly didn’t suit. Back from a little break and with trip and ground in his favour today, he strikes me as a potentially well handicapped individual.

Life Less Ordinary @ 15/2 VC – 5pts win

Global Racing

Outback Traveller Deserves Another Chance

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Cork Racecourse

Mixed Saturday from a betting perspective. 1 winner with Ogbourne Downs, though by the smallest of margins. My initial feeling right after the race was: It’s lost. But the photo proved “decisive”. OD stuck his nose out when it mattered. What a relieve! Otherwise it would have been a tough day because Gabrial and Jakob Black both ran superb but only managed to finish 2nd. Lily’s Prince and Snow Cloud never gave me a run for my money. So, after all, a small profit.

Before I move on to Sunday: Let’s briefly mention the performance of the day: Twilight Son at York today. He followed up with another massively impressive display and his way is clearly paved towards Group racing from now on. No surprise, though. As I felt already after his win on 2000 Guineas day that’s he a Group horse in the making.

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4.00 Salisbury: Cathedral Stakes (Listed), 6f

I can see why Absolutely So is market leader in this Listed contest, given his recent third place in a competitive Group 3. That says the likely very fast ground does definitely count against him. He has zero form in these kind of conditions.

Three year old Markaz has, though. However after nine career starts he still has only a maiden win to his name, though he performed with credit in most races, more often than not against classy opposition. This here is probably easier, and conditions will suit. But as a 3yo, despite weight for age, It’s a tough assignment.

A wind op helped Ruwaiyan to find back to form when he won a good Handicap at Goodwood in May. A subsequent poor effort in Listed company at Windsor may be forgiven and he is certainly one of the likelier sorts in this race.

Minalisa was a long way beaten in the very same race but probably needed the run. She is best judged on her Listed win at Naas in fast conditions last year. She is a definite contender if back on song.

Personally I’m most fascinated by Outback Traveller. He was very progressive as a juvenile as well as three year old. His Ascot win in October was nothing short of sensational. Admittedly he doesn’t seem to have grown over the winter but seem to have retained allot of his ability as he proved at Kempton on his seasonal debut when just beaten in a photo as to top weight by the very well handicapped Speculative Bid.

Under an even bigger weight he struggled the next time at Ascot when travelling to close to a suicidal pace, while Speculative Bid won the race, clearly franking the Kempton form. Outback Traveller drops back to 6f now which I feel suits this speedy sort, so should the quick ground. I’m inclined to give him another chance and find out once for all if he’s equally as good a four year old as he was in the last two seasons.

Outback Traveller @ 7/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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4.40 Cork: Cork Derby (Premier Handicap), 1m 4f

An unsettled betting market and a wrong favourite – there aren’t many horses who make appeal in the Cork Derby. That is because fast conditions won’t suit many. Unsinkable appears to be Ger Lyons’s number one in this race, but stable mate Unrequited could likely be better suited by this test.

He clearly acts on fast ground and has the trip well within his range. He won a Handicap in emphatic fashion on his seasonal reappearance, effectively on the the bridle. He stepped up to 2m subsequently and travelled like the winner at the Curragh three weeks, though failed to stay eventually. He could still be well handicapped is my feeling and this race should suit down to the grounds.

I nominate a second selection for this race as I can’t split the two: Break My Mind for the in-form yard of Eddie Lynam. The filly is likely to be ready for her seasonal reappearance, and if that’s the case then she’s a big runner. It took her five races to get off the mark last year but she won a 12f maiden on fast ground at Fairyhouse in nice fashion back in September. Soft ground and drop in trip didn’t quite suit the next time but she still finished third when on her final start in 2014. But conditions will suit here at Cork and a mark off 82 seems more than fair.

Break My Mind @ 9/1 – William Hill 5pts Win
Unrequited @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win