Banging on the post at the moment…. and it hurts. Massive performance from Commodore at Kempton last night, overcame the widest draw and finished strongly… however to win you had to be positioned in front pack of the race, where the eventual winner came from. another runner-up effort. It’s one of those losing runs I guess…
4.25 Salisbury: Sovereign Stakes (Group 3), 1m
Plenty of classy individuals in the line-up; last years winner Captain Cat will have a shot again but may find this a hotter renewal. Custom Cut at head of the field is likely to run his usual race from the front. He’s always dangerous if allowed to lead. His penalty won’t make it easy when it’s crunch time, though.
Classy Kodi Bear heads the challenge of the classic generation. His weigh for age allowance is a big asset and he hasn’t done much wrong this year. He’ll be very competitive, however I feel he is not the right price in this competitive field. Tullius drops back to 1m which may not suit on the quick ground. But he certainly has found his form again.
Even the big outsiders Short Squeeze and Dark Emerald can’t be discounted here and have a chance to pick up some price money. But the 6/1 for progressive Moohaarib looks over the top. He flopped in the Lockinge, but that was a Group 1 and he may not have shown his true class that day. Imagine he wouldn’t have run that day and would come into today with his penultimate form, he’d be clear favourite I guess.
He looked smart when winning a Listed contest at Ascot, travelling like a dream and never saw the whip. If he can find back to that form he’ll be hard to beat I feel.
Moohaarib @ 6/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
6.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
You can easily discount half the field here, but the front two horses in the market have strong credentials to be the ones fighting it out. Alfajer judged on her recent efforts hast to go close; whether she will truly stay the trip is another matter. For that reason, as well as her revised mark, she is short enough a price.
The most likely winner is Wee Jean in my eyes. She can make it three on the bounce tonight. The trip may not quite her optimum but she stays it and while she has to overcome a high enough mark, tonight is the ideal opportunity to do so.
Nonetheless the best value in the field represents 9/1 chance Sulaalaat. Forgive her the last performance at Newmarket, she is better judged on her strong Listed effort at Royal Ascot where she attempted to make all. The mile trip should be what she wants judged on her pedigree, and she probably hasn’t shown us her best yet.
In my eyes she deserves another chance and today is a good opportunity to prove whether she is a half decent filly or not. First time head gear could make a big difference, and if can squeeze out a bit of improvement, she will go very close here.
Sulaalaat @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win