Tag Archives: Silvestre De Sousa

Thursday Selections: August, 22nd 2019

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4.15 York: Listed Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes, 1m 4f

This is a wide open race and the betting tells you as much. What’s intriguing: the vast majority of horses in here have yet to run fast – at least judged by topspeed ratings. You could possibly forgive the lightly raced fillies a bit more, although the likes of Frosty or favourite Search For A Song had chances when running in pretty decent races.

Hence the standout chance in this contest appears to be Frankellina. This daughter of the almighty Frankel has pretty decent form in the book, running in some hot races, while she is the only one in this field running to a 90+ topspeed rating – which is something I want to see from any serious contender in this class.

It’s her career best, which looks rock solid as she also run to 89 before, which still would be the highest TS rating achieved by any filly in the field.

This is in line with her official rating of 105, the highest of any filly in the field. Granted, Frankellina has not quite lived up to possibly high expectations at the start of season. She had won on her debut in her single start as a juvenile, but remains without victory this year in four starts.

A runner-up effort in the Musidora – which is questionable form to be fair – followed by a promising 6th place effort in the Oaks, a 6th place in the Ribblesdale and a slightly disappointing 4th here at York in a listed contest last month.

I would argue, though, those last three pieces are pretty fair form, given this race looks much easier. Also Frankellina will profit from drying ground at York today – the quick surface should benefit her chances and hopes that she truly stays the 1m 4f trip.

Selection:
10pts win – Frankellina @ 11/2 MB

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4.50 York: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

I’m a little bit late to the party but still feel there is significant juice in the price of Whitefountainfairy. Albeit this is a big field, it is not as competitive a handicap as other races this week.

Whitefountainfairy should, if having a clear run, take all the beating here. Really. Saying that in a 20-runner strong field feels weird but I guess anyone who can read and has half-decent eyesight will have seen what handicap mark the filly is and what tremendous run she produced at Goodwood last time out.

Most importantly, Whitefountainfairy is down to a super dangerous mark. Down to 85, she ran to higher topspeed in the past, has been falling gradually, while remaining relatively low mileage, actually not all that much disappointing in her last runs either.

She was brutally eye-catching at Goodwood lately. Losing the race in the starting gate, hitting it in fact once the gates opened, she lost a good deal of ground, which is far from ideal over 7f. She settled at the rear, but then in the final two furlongs weaved her way through, finishing so strongly, that surely with a better start she would have gone very close.

I believe, despite a higher grade, this today is actually an easier race. She also runs against her own sex, and a simpler track will be a bonus, so will be the decent ground.

Selection:
10pts win – Whitefountainfairy @ 7/1 MB

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8.00 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Mutabaahy is ripe for victory. He’s been running quite well this year without getting a deserved “1” credited to his name. This here will be his best chance. It really isn’t a good race and I feel this lad stands out.

He’s 2lb above his last winning mark, but 67 seems a more than fair mark for him. He has ran to 68 and 70 topspeed ratings in the past, in fact he ran to a career best when runner-up at Ripon.

One can argue Mutabaahy had chances of the same mark this season already. True, but he also run really well then in highly competitive races that have worked out strongly.

Track, trip and ground conditions will suit today. Back after a 4-wee-long break he’s hopefully fresh and ready to go. In saying that I am slightly worried by the drift in the betting – but it’s the risk I’m prepared to take.

Selection:
10pts win – Mutabaahy @ 9/1 MB

Friday Selections: May, 10th 2019

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First winner of the week with Lincoln Park (11/2) yesterday. It was a peach of a ride by Silvestre De Sousa, utilizing the good draw in the best possible way; Lincolm Park lead pretty much start to finish, even though he was hard pressed for a while. It looked like some of his rivals were travelling stronger turning for home, but the 3-year-old kept finding.

The listed Dee Stakes were an intriguing contest. The favourite Circus Maximus won it as he was entitled to do. He had the run of the race, in truth. Moving forward I’m much more keen on stable mate Mohawk, the runner-up. I was looking forward to his return this year, and was pleased with this performance.

Wherever he goes next, granted he gets decent ground, he could be value and underestimated I feel, given his profile and achievements to date aren’t quite as sexy as some of his stablemates.

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6.50 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

You need to have ultimate confidence in favourite Group Stage at short odds to find a hell of improvement on handicap debut now as a 3yo. Not impossible, but hard to say 3/1 is a good price.

The one I’m interested on is Michael Stoute’s handicap debutatn El Picador. He’s got a phenomenal record in these type of situations and we know his horses usually improve with time.

El Picador is clearly down the packing order in the yard, although an opening handicap mark of 72 could underestimate him quite a fair bit. He didn’t show a lot in three starts as a juvenile in the second half last year. And his seasonal debut at Wolverhampton last month was also rather poor.

However, he was an 18/1 shot that day, and travelled like an inexperienced horse, who was found out for speed in the home straight, while also looking a bit awkward as his rivals quickened away.

First time blinkered today is interesting, to keep El Picador possibly focused on the job. Stepping up in trip that will suit well on pedigree should also help to see him in much better light today.

That in combination offers enough potential to see this well bred son of Dansili improve enough to overcome a 72 handicap mark, I believe.

Selection:
10pts win – El Picador @ 8/1 PP

Wednesday Selection: 18th October 2017

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A nice winner with Mutafarrid (6/1) got the week rolling on Monday, although the other two selections on the day ran stinkers. Well, it would have been too nice, I guess. There was not much to like on Tuesday, but thankfully the next day is just around the corner…

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2.20 Lingfield: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 5f 

The two fillies at the head of the market set a fair standard, however their form is nothing to shout about and while experience counts for quite a bit in these races I side with a completely unknown quantity.

It looks significant that Silvestre De Sousa is on board of newcomer Baileys Excel. That is because the colt is quite well bred and his sire does incredibly well at this track over this trip, particularly with two year olds.

Now the jockey booking is even more so significant as this yard’s record in these type of races with young horses isn’t good. However the record for SDS on Dwyer inmates, particularly 2yo’s is excellent.

From a good draw where the door is wide open for an upset, Baileys Excel might be the one who is good enough on debut to win this.

Selection:
10pts win – Baileys Excel @ 10/1 Bet365

Thursday Selections – 17th August 2017

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Wolfcatcherjack was an impressive winner today, though it could have been a super day if Kryptos wouldn’t have been beaten by a head in a tight finish. Scoones and Regal Mirage were not quite good enough, though.

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4.50 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Ryan Moore on board for the sole runner of father Gary at Salisbury – interesting. Grand Myla is also interesting because she made an okay seasonal reappearance at Bath last month and drops now to a career lowest- and more realistic mark.

Conditions should suit and she has a good draw. Stripping fitter for the latest run and potentially with a bit of improvement left given she was a late foal, I feel she is overpriced here.

Selection:
10pts win – Grand Myla @ 8/1 William Hill

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6.30 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Call Me Grumpy deserves another chance after he was disappointingly turned over odds-on the last two times, though the Carlisle effort was most disappointing. However he seemed not to enjoy that experience that day, and a simpler test at straight Yarmouth may suit better.

He drops in class but remains largely up against older horses with not too much to worry from the two other 3yo’s in the field. De Sousa gets the leg up which is a boost given his record for the stable and at this track plus he rode Call Me Grumpy to victory at Sandown on handicap debut.

Selection:
10pts win – Call Me Grumpy @ 4/1 Bet365

Champions Jockey Luke Morris?

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Another week older…. in fact another year older!!! It’s my birthday and I could do well with a birthday present. Why?

Because last week started so exceptionally well with three winners on the bounce but from from mid-week on turned into nothing but disappointment, agony and despair. A real nightmare, we can call it. And that’s only the horses. Let me not get started on the soccer….

I’ve really lost some money in those last four days or so. But always look on the bright side of life, eh? I try, I really try hard. But when you advance beyond a certain age, when you are very much entitled to attend the Over 30’s discos, when you…. ah let’s leave it there.

Thankfully there is enough racing to get stuck into and to forget about all the moaning and groaning. Age is just a number.

Jockeys  Championship

The British Flat Jockeys Championship has never really caught my imagination, I have to admit. Although I firmly believe it has its place in the racing season (there was an interesting discussion on its value on yesterdays ATR Sunday Forum – check it out). Whether the current format is the right one is a different matter.

Nonetheless I like the fact that it rewards the hard working jockey, the one who goes up and down the country, who’s sacrificing for a slim chance of a winner in the class 6 Handicap for three year old’s on a dreary Wednesday night at Wolverhampton.

Now, in recent weeks the Jockeys Championship moved a bit into focus because it developed into an intriguing head-to-head battle between defending champion Silvestre De Sousa and Jim Crowley, the latter one only recently emerging as a serious contender.

I ran the numbers and dug through the stats and come to the conclusion that Crowley does  have the edge – not only on the actual numbers of winners (he’s leading by 2) – but basically every other significant metric. So it’s no surprise to see him being installed as the odds-on favourite to wrestle the title off De Sousa.

As a betting man, though, I’m always on the hunt for value. And I just couldn’t get my head around when I saw last years All-Weather Champion Luke Morris readily available at a whopping 50/1! Are you serious?

Yes, Morris is 15 winners behind Crowley at the moment – but Crowley himself trailed De Sousa by a more or less similar margin not too long ago either. So it’s not impossible to make it up.

Now, it’s a long-shot, no doubt. Crowley gets great support, is going all out…. but you know what? So is Luke Morris! He’s proven it all the years that he’s a tremendously hard working jockey, usually right up there with the most number of rides of any jockey in the country. He also has a proven pedigree of being able to sustain the pressure in a title race, given he is the reigning All-Weather Champion jockey.

With the assistance of some good trainers, mainly Mark Prescott, I feel Luke Morris has enough ammunition to grind his way closer and closer into contention. There is still enough time on the clock.

Interestingly the difference between Morris and Crowley over the last 50 rides is a mere 4 winners – quite close, isn’t it? Well, yes and no. Crowley has a higher strike rate and is only really getting into full swing right now, so the gap might widen inevitably. But then, Morris has shown in the past that once he sets his signs on a jockeys title, he can really dig deep and get his hands on an awful lot of winning rides too.

It remains a long-shot, and let’s not rule out Silvestre De Sousa at all, nor James Doyle – though he said he’s not all in -, Adam Kirby or Oisin Murphy. But it’s the 50/1 price tag for Luke Morris that really looks tremendously over the top.

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Monday Selections:

2.35 Chepstow: Cocoa Beach @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
4.15 Chepstow: Work @ 12/1 Williahm Hill