Tag Archives: Handicap

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th May 2024

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3.40 Chester: Class 2 Handicap, 2m2½f

Usually this wouldn’t be my cup of tea from a betting perspective but I feel Too Friendly is potentially too well handicapped today, to not have a good at a decent price, given the ground continues to dry out and could suit him incredibly well.

The 6-year-old gelding remains quite lightly raced on the flat, and with that in mind may have still a few pounds in hand before the handicapper gets the measure right.

The #8 isn’t an ideal place and he’ll have to be perfect out of the gates to avoid getting trapped wide. He can move forward, though, and I hope De Sousa in the saddle can have him settle a few lengths off the pace, with cover, not too wide off the fence, eventually.

Purely from a handicapping perspective, I seriously rate his most recent run on the flat: in March at Kempton, over 2 miles, the first time seen without a hurdle in front of him in nearly two years.

Back in 2021 Too Friendly was a decent flat performer, competing in some hot races, before changing yards and becoming a hurdler.

A five-time winner over hurdles, back in October 2023 he was still a fine 2nd behind the subsequent Christmas Hurdle runner-up. His most recent run in a class 2 Handicap Hurdle was rather disappointing, though.

However, right before that he returned to the flat and was an impressive winner at Kempton. He looked way too good for his rivals that day and has only been upped 4lb to a still, potentially, lenient mark of 89.

Especially over staying trips he remains completely unexposed. And the fact he overcame an awkward start and early keenness at Kempton, suggests there’s more to come still.

It remains to be seen how the race pans out today, whether he can be in a decent position with three furlongs to go. If he can be, I think he’s got the gears to be thereabouts.

10pts win – Too Friendly @ 14/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 8th May 2024

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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

In the hope Bated Breeze is allowed to run on merit today, he looks seriously overpriced in this race tonight. He met some of these before and is better off in the weights over an identical course and distance.

Most importantly, his two runs this season have been noteworthy. He caught the eye early April over this CD especially, which was backed up by a good speed rating that day as well.

From a wider than ideal gate he was awkwardly away and had to settle in rear, trailing the field, keenly enough. He quickened in visually arresting style from 3f out right into the fastest part of the race. He couldn’t quite get back to the leaders who enjoyed the run of the race, though.

Those first two home ran good speed ratings and were clearly well-handicapped on their handicap debuts. Bated Breeze also ran a 62 speed rating and I felt that performances warranted a chunky upgrade, which could mean he’s potentially well-handicapped off 64.

Fancied at Bath the next time, he didn’t run without merit in a seriously strong race, I thought. He couldn’t keep up the red hot pace after travelling strongly behind the leader until 2f out.

A #1 draw today offers options to move forward, as he did the last time. He’ll have to be at his best out of the gate as some pace pressure is expected to move right across from the wider gates.

If that works out well, the gelding should be in a perfect position and can race just off the lead, covered up. Off a mark of 64 he should have pounds in hand today back on the sand.

It’s Tom Queally’s only ride on the card and he was riding well for this yard lately. So that’s a positive, although the betting is the concern I have, with Bated Breeze going the wrong way.

10pts win – Bated Breeze @ 12/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 5th may 2024

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3.40 Newmarket: Group 1 1000 Guineas, 1m

You can’t ignore the credentials of the Karl Burke trained favourite Fallen Angel. The daughter of Too Darn Hot improved with every run last season, culminating in an impressive Moyglare success.

That form offers an excellent springboard for more success this year. She’s likely to appreciate the step up to a mile and seems drawn well, near enough to where the pace is likely to develop. She’s quite versatile, can move forward or track the pace.

There’s so much to like and she’s probably the right favourite. If anything, the price is nothing more than fair, given so many unknowns in a race such the 1000 Guineas.

Also there’s plenty of pace in this race. We have seen 24h ago how that can end for well-fancied horses. She may burn too much fuel early on, is a danger I can foresee.

Porta Fortuna possibly posts the strongest juvenile performance, though, certainly on speed ratings, when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes. She continued her progress with a gallant 2nd at Santa Anita.

The question I have is whether she really is as good over a mile as a 3-year-old as she was over 6 furlongs last season. The draw doesn’t do her any favour, the way the race may pan out. Intriguing contender, but not at this price.

I’m intrigued also by what William Buick does on Dance Sequence, especially as she can miss the kick. He may have to use the filly early on to get into a good position as otherwise, also drawn on the wing, somewhat away from the pace, may be detrimental.

She ran well in he Nell Gwyn and I’d fancy her to turn the form around with Pretty Crystal over the new trip. Whether that’s good enough to land a Guineas remains to be seen.

The winner that day, Pretty Crystal, has yet to run a serious speed rating in six career runs. I have my doubts that she can improve to the level normally required to win a Guineas.

French raider Ramatuelle was ultra-impressive winning the Robert Papin last July. He’s race fit after a good 2nd at Deauville last month. He came back for more after travelling well and burning a lot of energy in the first half of a slowly run race. The mile is a question mark, though.

Star Style for the Hannon team was brilliant on his debut a few weeks ago, posting a 84 speed rating. She’s one to keep an eye on, for all that a mile in this grade, with competition for the lead, may be beyond her stamina reserves.

Ylang Ylang was progressive last year and her course and distance Group 1 Fillies’ Mile win is as good as it gets in this field. I’m slightly worried about the drying ground, as she seemed to show her best with juice in the ground.

See The Fire showed promise as a juvenile and should do even better this year. She’s bred to stay beyond a mile, but may appreciate the fast pace today as well as the better ground.

Her tendency to hang in the closing stages certainly cost her an unbeaten record as a 2-year-old, I reckon. With that in mind her 3rd in the Fillies’ Mile warrants an upgrade.

She was still so raw and unfinished last season. Clearly there’s more to come, given her pedigree. She still showed an ability to travel and quicken. Both should be of use today.

The draw isn’t ideal. Out on the wing, Oisin Murphy will have to make an early decision, whether to sit back and suffer potentially in traffic late, or whether to move forward and across to get closer to the lead that should develop toward the centre.

That’s a risk I’m prepared to take. See The Fire seems still a bit overpriced. If she can run straight she could well be the best filly in the race, today and long-term.

10pts win – See The Fire @ 10/1

…..

4.23 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f

Shine On Brendan must have a serious chance in this race, Money arrived throughout the morning, which I take as a positive sign, and he’s still perhaps a point or a bit more even too big, if on a going day.

He loves it here, has a positive 8-3-2 record over this course and distance and was a fine second in this very race twelve months ago off a 2lb lower mark.

Two solid comeback runs should put him spot on. From a wide draw he ran with plenty of credit a fortnight ago at Musselburgh. The soft ground will certainly suit today.

That last performance gave a fair indication that Shine On Brendan may not be too far of the level of form the gelding showed in 2023, where he ran to 64 and 69 speed ratings, won off 68 and got close off 70.

The 7-year-old has shown in the past that he can move forward. Potentially a big advantage today, in a race with not too much competition for the lead expected.

10pts win – Shine On Brendan @ 5/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th May 2024

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1.45 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.

He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won’t be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark – but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.

In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating a Ascot.

Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be ran at a furious pace, it’s likely game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I’m hopeful he’ll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 10/1

……..

2.05 Goodwood: Listed Fillies’ Stakes, 1m

Choisya was the one to take out from the Snowdrop Stakes last month, where she got desperately close against the run of the race.

Caught wide throughout, given the way the race panned out in front of her, she made superb progress from halfway through the race, always turning widest, and it was her class that put her into a challenging position with two furlongs to go.

In a battle to the line she had to pay tribute to those earlier exertions eventually, still only beaten by a head, and also finishing the closing stages with the fastest sectionals.

The filly isn’t low mileage compared to some other rivals today. But she was progressive last season, has shown versatility if it comes to ground and racing position, and her last three efforts, a close second at Newmarket in October, and two subsequent All-Weather efforts, give the impression there’s still more to come.

She handles the soft ground and shouldn’t be too far away from likely pace setter Orchid Bloom. This filly sets the standard on speed ratings and looks rock solid, if ready to go off a break.

At given prices, I favour Choisya, though. She hasn’t fully convinced on speed ratings yet, but I firmly believe she’s got the ability to run a big one, in the right conditions – hopefully today.

10pts win – Choisya @ 11/2

………

3.35 Newmarket: Group 1 2000 Guineas, 1m

Can you oppose City Of Troy? if you believe the hype that surrounds the Aiden O’Brien trained colt, you absolutely can not.

On pure numbers COT is clearly the one to beat: unbeaten as a juvenile, a fine 77 speed rating on debut, followed by two 100+ performances, to land the Superlative and Dewhurst Stakes.

That’s the sign of a classy individual, although, not of the “best ever”… yet. He still has to improve going into his classic campaign, and must prove that he has trained on. There’re some question marks looming of Justify offspring in this regard.

The other question: is there anything in this field good enough to beat him? Ten rivals go head to head with City Of Troy.

Haatem won the Craven Stakes showing a lovely attitude last month. His race fitness must count for something and he achieved a decent enough speed rating to give the performance merit. He’s certainly not low mileage, though, and one has to wonder how much more improvement is left.

Unbeaten Ghostwriter won the Royal Lodge in good style when last seen and is one the more likely candidates to improve to the level required to land a Guineas.

He’s achieved two mid-90 speed ratings last year. That’s a solid platform to head into this year, although also, purely judged on that form, still requires a significant step up.

Rosallion, for one, appears the main challenger for City Of Try, if the betting is an accurate reflection. Already a Group 1 winner, he stayed on well to win the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October. However, a son of Blue Point stretching out to a mile on this level, I have issues to imagine. Never say never, though.

Task Force is an intriguing horse. second in the Middle Park, yet to race beyond 6 furlongs, but possibly suited by the step up in trip, open to plenty of improvement, could be a different horses as a 3-year-old over this trip, especially after a win operation.

Night Rider was an impressive winner at Southwell earlier this year. Visually an impressive performance, I’m not yet sold on his ability to bring this speed to a mile.

Alyanaabi was third in the Dewhurst behind City Of Troy. He’s got plenty to find judged on that performance. So has Iberian, a long way beaten that day. Though, the step up to a mile will surely suit.

Notable Speech remains unbeaten in three runs this year. All came on the All-Weather over 7 furlongs and didn’t set the world alight on speed rating. Hard to judge how good he is moving up to a mile.

Ten Bob Tony won a Conditions race last month. But this is much more demanding and I struggle to see how he’s anywhere near good enough for this level.

In a summary, one could argue: there’s plenty of unknowns in this race. City Of Troy sets a good standard and the fact Ballydoyle sends him as their sole representative speaks of a high degree of confidence.

Nonetheless, I’m prepared to take the odds-on favourite on because I simply can’t leave Inisherin unbacked. One of my Horses to Follow this year, he appears somewhat underappreciated in this field, yet is one clearly open to tons of improvement.

This son of Shamardal was beaten only half a lengths on debut last September when the market expected nothing from him(50/1). Possibly well drawn on that day, in fairness, he travelled the best of all to 2 furlongs out and was only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse eventually.

That form doesn’t look too shabby, and he also achieved a pretty decent 76 speed rating for a debut performance.

He got his maiden victory ticket off in March at Newcastle with a visually impressive run on his seasonal return.

One can argue he was flattered by that performance because he got the run of the race from the front in a crawl of a race. Nonetheless, the way he easily sprinted home, without ever being really touched, hitting strong sectionals in the final part of the race, screams talent.

Even more so impressive he was able to show this speed and change of gear as the breeding suggests somewhere beyond a mile will be his optimum trip.

Inisherin looks sure to improve for the experience and a step up in trip may be ideal on pedigree post Guineas as he’s out of smart Ajman Princess who was a Ribblesdale Stakes runner-up and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

With that in mind, I feel he should enjoy the likely fast pace in this edition of the 2000 Guineas, that could ensure the race turns into a stamina test in the end.

10pts win – Inisherin @ 49/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 3rd May 2024

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2.15 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a seriously weak contest. Only two horses truly stand out as serious win candidates.

Of course, favourite Kelpie Grey may well be able to defy a 5lb penalty. He ran to a strong speed rating the last time off a break and should enjoy the likely fast pace here.

At the same time he’s been far from prolific throughout his career and whether he has the gears on this better ground over this trip remains to be seen.

He’s one I’m happy to take on with Gobi Sunset, who himself could be a touch better over shorter 6 furlongs on turf. Nonetheless, he’s a winner over this trip on the sand and with the decent ground – likely to stay that way given the current forecast – he should be fine.

The gelding is possibly supremely well handicapped here, especially with a good 5lb claimer in the saddle. One can ignore the most recent run at Ayr over a wrong trip and class too hot, certainly in that combination.

It may, however, worked as run to put him right for this contest where he also drops down to class 6 for the first time off a dangerous mark. Gobi Sunset is more prolific on sand but has won twice on turf as well, and judged by his performances this winter, remains in good form.

His penultimate effort at Southwell, when third in a strong race that worked out well in the meantime, he was a significant eye catcher, as he did a lot in the first half of the race to overcome a wide draw.

Drawn in #1 this time, that won’t be the same issue, although the pace could be hot which most in the field enjoy being up with it. However, he could enjoy the inside ride, and a fair race to the line should ensure class is the deciding factor.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/2

……

4.30 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Another poor contest. Few appear well handicapped, certainly judged on more recent performances.

Tacitus has emerged as a tentative favourite over night, and that’s a shame because I hoped to get a better price for this gelding. He’s not one to put too much trust in, and clearly he’s not as prolific as his namesake.

But he’s got plenty going for himself today, and could have too much in the tank for this lot.

For one, Tacitus is down to his last winning mark, and back to a course and distance he was a desperately unfortunate runner-up last summer off a 4lb higher mark.

He had two runs on the sand after coming from a nice winter break. There was plenty to like about his his most recent run at Wolverhampton, in fact as he moved forward from a wide draw and was in the mix for a long enough time, without getting a hard ride.

He was 2lb wrong in the handicap, and clearly outclassed in the end. Down to 0-55 against some much poorer opposition, off his real handicap mark, he should be much more competitive.

The #7 draw is slightly wider than ideal here, but he has shown enough early speed in the past to ensure he can move forward to get into a decent position, that provides cover and isn’t too far off whoever leads.

10pts win – Tacitus @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 28th April 2024

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15.30 Weatherby: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The pace may not be the strongest, and that could help proven front-runner Crownthorpe to outrun his price. Not sure how many want to be truly up there in testing conditions, perhaps the favourite Harswell Duke, who’s got form, is one of those.

Obviously he’s one I like, as he was a recent eyecatcher, but at prices Crownthorpe is a much better bet. This is his third run off a break, and he ran with plenty of credit on sand the two times prior.

Especially his most recent effort was quite likeable, as he was at the front of proceedings for a long time. If fitness has improved, with the return to turf and a track possibly to suit on ground he won’t mind, the veteran could be hard to pass.

The last time seen on turf was about a year ago, at Beverley on good to soft over 8.5f and he was a gallant 2nd off 6lb higher than today, behind a well-handicapped winner.

He’s got a really strong record in these lower grades and this race represents another slight drop in class.

10pts win – Crownthorpe @ 11/1

……..

5.15 Wetherby: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 6f

Flowering caught the eye a number of times over the recent weeks, without winning, though. The filly ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather, finishing second or third in her five runs on sand this year, prior to a return to turf last time out.

Her four most recent efforts have all caught my attention in no uncertain way, and they suggest the filly, albeit possibly appearing to find ways of losing and being in the grip of the handicapper, is ripe for a ‘W’.

Earlier this week once again she was somewhat unfortunate. At Beverley, down to 10 furlongs, Flowering clearly proved her suitability for soft ground – crucial today.

The filly has developed some issues at the gate, although this time, not advantaged by the #8 gate, she also stumbled, and as a consequence was bound to travel in rear.

Drawn in #3 today, with not too much pace in the race, I hope she can get toward the front sooner rather than later, as she ran her best races from a prominent position.

At Beverley, she made strong progress, going quite well, but had to delay her run when stuck in traffic and the winner was long gone when she got clear passage. She finished best of all in the deep ground, suggesting, the step up to 1m 6f isn’t out of question.

It’s certainly worth a try, a things happen a little less quick, and that could help her. She seems a relentless galloper, and the track will suit this style, as long as she’s in a prominent racing position.

If that’s the case, a mark of 58 could underestimate her in these conditions, what’s only her 3rd run on turf. The hot favourite beat her on the sand, but soft ground, 1m 6f, at Wetherby is a different story, possibly.

10pts win – Flowering @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 13th April 2024

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4.00 Aintree: Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m 2f

Backing the winner of the Grand National is one that has eluded me so far. Not sure that’s going to change this year, but I feel two horses are overpriced and offer solid value chances.

I was sweet on Mr Incredible twelve months ago, and only one career run later, he’s nearly as big as back then, when he looked to be in with a solid shout until the saddle slipped after the 24th and Bryan Hayes went off board.

It’s hard to say whether he would have gone close, but I felt he went better than I ever imagined, given he can be a tricky horse. He jumped okay, for the most part, and made good progress when the race started to get serious.

He has been off the track since then, until a reappearance at the Midlands Grand National. That looked a superb warm-up. He travelled well, jumped well, made eye-catching progress and ran home strongly for 2nd.

You’d absolutely bank on a Willie Mullins horse to improve for that run under his belt. I’ve no doubt is going to be primed for a big run in the National.

The reasons to back him in 2023 also hold largely true in 2024. He remains a low-mileage 8-year-old, who showed tons of promise in his last four runs, but has only been seen a handful times over the last two seasons.

He’s 6lb higher this time, but that’s not a worry. He remains open to plenty of progress over these staying trips, especially with ground likely to suit.

I’m surprise to see such big prices on the exchanges available for him. I’d saw him closer to 12s. So, hopefully it’s second time lucky…

But if not, then I hope the Skelton trained mare Galia Des Liteaux can do the job! I’m not too fuzzed about the seemingly poor record for mares in the National. This is a changed race, easier fences, less runners, and I feel this test will suit the mare seriously well.

One has to take a leap of faith first though. She was a desperately disappointing beaten odds-on favourite in a Listed Mares Chase back in February. However, prior to that, she stayed on seriously strongly in a hot Handicap at Warwick, to finish 2nd over 3m 5f.

She’s a grinder, somewhat one paced, but with only 9 starts over fences, she’s lightly raced enough to believe there is more to come over marathon trips.

Galia Des Liteaux improved nicely this year in three of her four starts, only out of the money in the most recent Exeter run. Only once did she race beyond 3m 1f, and that we this seasons strong runner-up performance at Warwick.

There should be plenty of pace in this years National. On the current ground that will ensure a proper test of stamina. That could suit this mare to see her outrun her big price tag.

5pts win – Mr Incredible @ 18/1 (MB)
5pts win – Galia Des Liteaux @ 35/1 (SM)

……

6.00 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This looks an ideal opportunity for Berry Clever to get off the mark after a highly promising seasonal reappearance at Southwell recently.

He was significantly hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result, which wasn’t ideal in that race. Nonetheless he travelled well into the straight and made initially quite strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.

One can forgive him for getting tired in the closing stages and you would hope he can improve from having this run under his belt, in any case.

Still winless, but the gelding was somewhat ‘unfortunate’ in a couple of his runs as a juvenile last season. There is enough in his profile to believe he’s capable of winning a race off his current mark. 63 could prove a little bit lenient, now that he also moves up in trip.

On turf, only his second run on grass, and over a mile, which often brings out improvement for Expert Eye offspring, and dropping into a slightly grade too, with De Sousa once again on board, he looks an intriguing horse in an open contest.

The rain is the one question mark I have, if it turns the ground properly soft. It’s that lingering doubt I have whether he’s get home in that case. But the pace may not be overly hot, so it’s worth the risk.

10pts win – Berry Clever @ 6/1 (SM/MB)

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th April 2024

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4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.

I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.

Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.

I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.

However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.

She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.

Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.

This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.

10pts win – Flowering @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th April 2024

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5.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.

He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.

That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.

The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.

Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.

He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.

Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.

Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).

10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 4/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th April 2024

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3.43 Bath: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

A race of this nature looks highly competitive but the ground will only allow a select few to get involved. I wouldn’t fancy a horse on a seasonal return here at all, and rather am looking for race fitness coupled with form on this ground.

With that in mind, I can’t look past Glorious Angel, the 4-year-old filly, who put up a huge performance earlier this week at Pontefract as a runner-up.

It’s tough going back to back in such short space of time, but sprinters can recover quicker, and the Tuer yard is in superb form also.

At Pontefract she had to overcome the widest and as a consequence had to do more in the early part of the race than the eventual winner. She was gutsy all the way to the line, though.

Her two runs prior this year were also noteworthy. She did way too much in a hot Listed contest at Doncaster last month over 6f, and prior on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton over 7f, she was still ahead with just over a furlong to go, before running out of fuel.

This Bath test on heavy ground over the minimum trip, may be the absolute ideal scenario to add a 6th career win to her CV.

Even though her win record wouldn’t quite tell the story, Glorious Angel’s career best performances all came over 5 furlongs in deep ground. She stays further, which can be of benefit, given there should be plenty of pace here.

That in itself will be of benefit, given the filly can be keen early on. Her low weight and the assistance of solid 5lb claiming apprentice Joe Leavy can only be of benefit in these conditions.

From a handicap perspective, she is certainly rated to go close, judged on last Octobers career-best effort over 5f in heavy ground at Doncaster, where she finished a gallant 2nd, off 87, achieving an 86 speed rating.

Down to 84, with the 5lb claim, in conditions she enjoys, certainly race fit, hopefully recovered well enough from Tuesday, she’s a massive runner here and I still find value in the current price.

10pts win – Glorious Angel @ 5/1