5.20 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Sydney Bay caught the eye on his return from a break and wind op at this track over 6 furlongs last month.

He travelled off the pace on the outside off the pack, not getting the best of cover there. He seemed outpaced in this grade over this trip 3 furlongs out but also didn’t find the clearest passage before strolling home in eyecatching fashion in the final furlong.

That form looks rock solid and if he can improve for the run with his breathing fine, he should be here on Monday a big runner, for various reasons.

The 5-year-old gelding drops significantly in grade, down to 0-55 class, a race also restricted to horses without a win since the 2023 flat turf season. This is a poor contest, the fact a now 48 rated 10-year-old is one of fancied horses, says it all.

Sydney Bay is much more home on this lowly level, obviously. Saying that, down to a mark of 53, with the excellent help of 5lb claimer William Pyle, he’s probably quite well-handicapped here, if he stays the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle.

He won off 49 and 51 over 6 furlongs at this venue last October, and did well out of the weights off effectively 56 as a runner-up subsequently and achieved 51 and 52 speed ratings in those winning runs.

Moving up to 7 furlongs should suit, in theory. Ever since this horse came to my attention about two years ago, I thought he’d be much better if he moves to 7f, and possibly further. That hasn’t materialised, in reality, but he stayed on strongly over 6f at this stiff track, has the breeding and tried 6f+ outside maiden company only twice in his career.

Amaysmont and Crocodile Power look solid rivals in this field and both may also enjoy the run of the race toward the stands rail. I hope Sydney Bay will be ridden a bit more forward, though, tracking the pace a couple, as he showed in the past he’s suited to that (31/10/23, career-best performance).

10pts win – Sydney Bay @ 4/1