Tag Archives: Handicap

Betting

Saturday Selections: 22nd October 2022

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1.20 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

It pays off to be have a low draw in this ground over this trip at Doncaster. Two that have the draw and are potentially handicapped to land this big handicap have caught my eye:

The money clearly is coming for Master Zoffany. One can see why: he travelled strongly when last seen at York earlier this month, then over a mile, before fading in the closing stages.

The drop to 7 furlongs will suit. He’s a distance winner and goes well in softish conditions. Currently one pound above his last winning mark, but 2lb lower than his best speed rating, he looks in with a clear opportunity to go really well after a much lighter campaign than many others in this field, perhaps with freshness the bonus to push him over the line.

At a bigger price, one I don’t want to leave out, though, is Mystery Fox. He was an impressive winner at Goodwood over a mile, quickening in fine style and put the race to bed from two furlongs out. He improved nicely for the application of cheekpieces.

A drop to 7 furlongs won’t be an issue, especially in properly soft conditions. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but if he can continue to progress with the new headgear, there is every chance he can defy a mark off 88 today.

5pts win – Master Zoffany @ 7.4
5pts win – Mystery Fox @ 14

………

4.45 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Emperor Caradoc didn’t quite see out the mile at Pontefract recently, particularly after showing signs of keenness early on. However, his impressive Carlisle win is still relatively fresh in mind.

He was really gutsy to win from the widest draw that day, and kicked in well in the homes straight, finding the most in the final furlong.

He responded well to a gelding operation in spring and his lightly races profile offers potential for further progress, now down to 7 furlongs again with plenty of give in the ground. A mark off 77 does look not overly harsh.

Floral Splendour looked to be have a bit of talent when she won in impressive style on debut at Haydock back in July. She was found out in Listed class subsequently, though didn’t help herself with a slow start.

She was far from disgraced at Wolverhampton the next time, and caught the eye on her first start for the Jardine at Musselburgh lately. Nothing went her way that day, from start to finish.

She is better than that. 7 furlongs and soft ground suit. A mark off 74 and this easier grade make her really dangerous if she gets a clear run.

5pts win – Emperor Caradoc @ 15.5
5pts win – Floral Splendour @ 32

……..

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Not much pace is expected here, which should play into the hands of Thank The Lord, who can go forward; in fact I would expect him to get it pretty easy from the front, given he also has a #1 draw to attack the race from.

He won nicely at Salisbury going wire to wire in July. afterwards looked out of sorts at Wolverhampton, before fading over 6 furlongs at Yarmouth and earlier this month here at Chelmsford.

That performance was a big one in my view. He had the widest draw, was a little bit sluggish away, made up ground rapidly soon after, and found plenty under pressure until tiring in the final furlong.

10pts win – Thank The Lord @ 13/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 21st October 2022

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5.15 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Rocket Rod caught the eye twice lately. he clearly is still on the up and capable to win off his current mark, especially in this easier grade than last time out.

Ten das ago over the same course and distance he was typcially slowly away, settled in rear but travelled powerfully. Tony Hamilton appeared overly patient (he outlined post-race to have followed a specific horse that tired in front of him at a crucial stage), avoided to switch to the outside for some daylight, and instead got stuck behind horses.

Still hard on the bridle approaching the final furlong Rocket Rod finished easily with the fastest final furlong split, without ever being asked to fully extend.

it was a somewhat similar story weeks earlier over the same CD, although that day he was eased as it became obvious the race was gone.

Rocket Rod has been reaching new heights on the All-Weather this season. A winner of three races between May and August, he was unlucky not to land a four-timer last month.

The Harker yard has been quite successful on the All-Weather this year, and over the last two weeks, with limited runners, turned out two winners from four runs.

Franny Norton on board rides the straight track at Newcastle pretty well, so I’m hopeful he can guide the gelding through the field to victory.

10pts win – Rocket Rod @ 4/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 20th October 2022

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Right now it feels like I might never back a winner again. It’s quite absurd what’s happening at the moment. Obviously I have been here before, back in the early summer…. and what followed was the most dramatic turnaround.

Last night, once again everything went wrong that could have gone wrong for my selection. Spring Is Sprung was so desperately keen he was done by the time the field approached the home straight.

Of course, the other horse I fancied on the day – but didn’t back – won 30 minutes later handsomely. It’s just the way it is at the moment. I can’t get it right, no matter what I do.

In any case, here’s hoping for the turnaround sooner rather than later….

………

2.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This could be quite a fast race that ends in a war of attrition. That may suit the first time blinkered Chief Of Staff. I’m not sure he is all that well handicapped over this trip, though.

One I feel is overpriced is Ben Macdui. He ran better than the form suggest on a number of occasions this year, including last time out.

He’s another 5lb down, now 12lb below his last win, a 6f Handicap success at Newcastle in March. He’s never been in the same form again since then – although, his last two runs give some hope.

He’s got a good draw here to make sure he is bang up with the pace and remains pretty unexposed on the All-Weather, actually. Three strong speed ratings, that indicate he’s got a higher ability than his current rating add to the possibility that Ben Macdui could outrun this price.

The yard is in poor form. 0-30 over the last fortnight. However, closer inspection shows the majority of runners were really big prices with about a third having outrun their price, in fact.

In all likelihood Ben Macdui will fade from 2f out and finish second last. He’s overpriced in my book, though; and if he can find some form again, he could land a big surprise here.

10pts win – Ben Macdui @ 50

……

7.15 Wolverhampton: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not many horses in this field make a great deal of appeal to me. Obviously, if freshly gelded Hierarchy could run to level of form he showed earlier this year, he would be hard the one to beat. It’s a big if and he’s got a lot to do off a 102 mark.

Dubai Station really interests me in this race, though. He’s the one on speed ratings they all have to get to, given he’s 2lb lower than winning at Chelmsford in May when running to a 91 TS rating.

He ran to strong levels of form subsequently – at Chelmsford in July and even more so Ascot in September. 3lb lower than when 3rd off 96 in a hot Handicap there last month, he wasn’t seen to best effect the last two times back on the All-Weather.

He messed up at the gates at Chelmsford, also wasn’t all that sharp here at Wolverhampton when last seen; although, that was a strange race how it panned out and I felt he ran better than the 3.5 lengths margin behind the winner suggested.

He’s got a slid draw today, and if he starts well, as he normally does, bar the last two races, he should have a hot pace to aim at sitting somewhere around midfield.

At the same time if he doesn’t get off to a solid start he will have to play catch-up and will likely have too much to do. Nonetheless, he’s got the speed and the class to feature, hence looks a big price.

10pts win – Dubai Station @ 17/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 19th October 2022

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8.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

I feel this is a pretty uncompetitive race for its class and field size. The one that stands out as certainly overpriced in my book is the 3-year-old Michael Bell trained gelding Spring Is Sprung.

He is one who usually goes forward to track the pace and will sit handy, or even can lead, as seen at Royal Ascot. The #1 draw won’t pose an issue for him, given his gate speed, to get that early advantageous prominent position. As we know, Kempton, over this trip, clearly favours those up with the pace.

Spring Is Sprung drops back to 6 furlongs, after an unsuccessful attempt over 7 furlongs at Lingfield when last seen in August. It was s still a credible performance, as he received an early bump out of the gates, and was keen early on, denying himself of the best opportunity to stay the trip. He still ran to topspeed 78 which gives this performance solid merit.

He’s also down to a good mark again, down from a seasonal high of 87, that saw him finish 3rd at Southwell over 6 furlongs in a Class 3 Handicap.

Weeks earlier he won on his seasonal reappearance over the same CD in taking style, off a mark of 81, beating subsequent Listed place Fearless Angel. He looked poised for better that day, but was possibly found out for class against better opposition the next few runs, in truth.

He attempted to make all at Royal Ascot when dropped to the minimum trip. He ran well enough finishing 13th of 27 starters; a subsequent 3rd place finish of three, only a lengths beaten, though, at Newmarket, and then his first really disappointing effort this year, when the application of a visor backfired.

A return to the All-Weather, 6 furlongs and down to 82 OR after a small break looks a perfect scenario. He’s still unexposed on the sand, only 1lb higher than his impressive Southwell win, achieved solid speed ratings before, and could be hard to beat if he can run to that sort of level this evening.

10pts win – Spring Is Sprung @ 7/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 15th October 2022

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4.00: Ascot: Group 1 Champions Stakes, 1m 2f

It’s all about Baaeed. Unbeaten in ten career starts, he comes here after that massive performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He’s very much expected to win in style this afternoon.

Retirement beckons afterwards, and surely the smartest fillies are waiting for him in the breeding shed next year. That’s for then. It’s a bid for racing greatness here and now.

In truth, though, I have been somewhat reserved in getting overly excited about what Baaeed had done until he demolished a strong field at York in August.

The reason a simple one: I hold topspeed close to my heart as a KPI if it comes to judging race horses. Prior to the Juddmonte, Baaeed’s career-best of 106 was quite good, but far from brilliant – especially given the comparisons to the true greats of the recent past, like his sire Sea The Stars, or Frankel.

Even my beloved Paco Boy achieved much better; yet, I as the most enthusiastic Paco Boy fan in the world, have to admit, he was not one of the greatest the sport had ever seen.

Roll on the 17th August 2022: Juddomonte International Stakes – Baaeed eases into the lead, effortless, floating over the ground, majestically; he quickens in impressive style and slaughters a labouring Mishriff by 6½ lengths.

Nearly as important as the margin of victory: Baaeed achieved a topspeed rating of 124. Finally a superb performance on this measure as well.

Any concerns over the trip were convincingly put to bed. Connections decided against moving up to the Arc distance subsequently, though. Probably a wise decision in hindsight.

Baaeed – a perfect 10 out of 10 – is impossible to oppose today….. or is he? Most likely, I am clearly in the minority: I still question whether he deserves to be called a “true great”. In my view: not yet.

It’s possibly harsh to say he has to prove himself today. Yet, in my eyes he’s got to prove his greatness: a performance similar to York, and I am going to be fully on board.

That says, he faces two real dangers today: the ground and a fresh Adayar.

Softish ground isn’t a big deal, given Baaeed has won in these conditions in the past. However, he never faced a rival as classy as Adayar in these conditions. I firmly believe Baaeed can’t quite produce the same change of gear on this type of ground.

Baaeed is vulnerable: he produced a 94 best topspeed rating on ground when the word soft appeared in the going description. It’s likely he’s a better horse today than the last time he encountered softish ground; nonetheless, it’s a question mark.

That brings me to Adayar. The only serious opposition today. We haven’t seen much of last years Derby and King George hero. You have to worry about his disrupted year.

On the other hand, it gives him the opportunity to arrive fresh, without a hard season in his legs, after a solid, if unspectacular comeback run at Doncaster last month.

If – and it’s a proper if – Adayar is anywhere near as good as he was last season, then he’ll be a formidable danger to Baaeed. Because let’s remember, he produced his two best performances with cut in the ground in the Derby, and subsequently here at Ascot in the King George, then on fast ground. This versatility could be key.

He ran a huge race in the Arc toward the end of last season; one can forgive a subsequent poor run in the Champions Stakes. The drop to 10 furlongs is another question mark I have. On the other hand, given the softish ground, it could prove ideal, especially if William Buick is bold enough to kick on once the field turns for home. Adayar isn’t slow, and one thing is for sure: he will stay all the way to the line.

Tactically it’s going to be intriguing: what’s Crowley’s game plan? From the #1 draw, he may get boxed in, if he doesn’t move forward right away. I doubt he wants to be too aggressive early on, though. That’s a clear danger, especially if the ground takes something out of Baaeed’s turn of foot.

At the given prices, I simply can’t ignore Adayar. I have question marks. But I have them over Baaeed as well. He’ still by far the likeliest winner, mind. And the fan in me wants him to bow out in style. Yet, the punter in me says a fit and happy Adayar has a better than 10% chance to win a third career Group 1 this afternoon.

A shoutout for Royal Champion: a huge price, one who I feel could outrun this price tag (can be backed at 160s on Exchanges). I was hugely impressed with his recent Ayr run. One to keep an eye on for the future, in any case.

10pts win – Adayar @ 9/1

………….

3.50 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Perhaps it’s the end of the road for veteran Dark Shot after a number of recent below par performances; however, he was earlier this season still running to low 70 ratings, with a really strong run only back in July at Goodwood, when a neck beaten runner-up.

He was rated 69 and ran to topspeed 67 that day – a seasonal best on that measure, although it was especially his Doncaster 4th place finish a few weeks earlier that caught my eye.

He couldn’t back up those runs the last three times, but two came at Southwell on the All-Weather. He weakened badly in all three races, though. A worry.

But: Dark Shot won this very same race 12 months ago. He’s on a lower mark, will enjoy the return to soft ground and has a solid draw to attack the race from.

10pts win – Dark Shot @ 15.5

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 12th October 2022

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7.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I was quite taken a week ago with Alfred Cove’s runner-up performance in a Novice Stakes at Wolverhampton over the minimum trip, especially given the weight he carried then.

Even though he wasn’t lightning fast away from the gates, he still managed to grab the lead within the first 200 yards. He set a strong galop, leading the field home, and was eventually passed by the winner who came from off the pace, but was finishing strongly enough to keep 2nd place.

Everything about this run indicated a step up to 6 furlongs is what the 3-year-old gelding wants. The form was likely far from brilliant, but he gave significant weight away to formally higher rated individuals.

In that context he did really well to finish a good runner-up. The time of the race was also quicker than a solid class 5 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card.

Having the ability to race off 62 in this class 6 Handicap from the #2 draw looks a brilliant chance to score. He’ll be 2lb higher in the future, looks potentially well in judged through the recent Novice race and will have the opportunity to move forward and be tracking the pace at the very least.

Alfred Cove is still a maiden after 7 career starts and has looked awkward at times in his earlier races. Whether he is able to replicate this recent performance back in handicap company remains to be seen. At the same time with more experience and this strong run in the book only a week ago, his price outweighs the risk vs reward here.

10pts win – Alfred Cove @ 8/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 11th October 2022

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8.05 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Pockley has dropped nine pounds in his official mark since he went into my notebook, back in July in an Ayr Gold Cup Trail Handicap. That day he was badly squeezed when coming with a potentially big run.

He ran well on a number of occasions in the meantime, without ever really threatening; although, all his subsequent performances, bare the most recent one, were better than the bare form may suggest.

A concern is how tamely Pockley finished the last two times, even though there were mitigating factors at Pontefract, after a slow start.

He didn’t have a lightning fast start when last seen at Ayr either, when he also bumped into a rival. This could point to the fact that Pockley has some underlying issues or isn’t as happy to be a race horse as he used to be.

At the same time, he has dropped to a seriously dangerous mark, the majority of recent runs were solid at the very least, all the while sliding down the ratings, and he clearly acts on the All-Weather, too.

The 5lb claim of apprentice Mark Winn looks excellent value. It keeps the weight down and provides Pockley an excellent opportunity to score in this easier grade.

10pts win – Pockley @ 9/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 16th September 2022

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6.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Competition for the pace doesn’t look too hot, which brings Dion Baker right into the equation, who drops down to 7 furlongs on his polytrack debut.

He is still a maiden but ran with credit a number of times; in fact he was arguably unlucky not to win at either Catterick, or subsequently on his Handicap debut at Haydock.

On both occasions he hang his chances away, otherwise he’d have a W to his name, I reckon.

Dion Baker ran well enough three weeks ago at Newmarket in softish conditions over a mile, just fading entering the final furlong. Given his early gate speed he should have no issues getting to the lead from the #1 draw here.

As he drops in class, he should find this race a bit easier, and has shown he has the quality to win off a 72 mark. He has the early speed and potentially the bit of extra stamina to keep it up right to the line.

10pts win – Dion Baker @ 9.2

……..

8.15 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 3f

Arab Cinder caught the eye a few times now and looks ripe to win a race, stepping another furlong on her second start for William Knight.

She did well over shorter trips for Roger Varian, seriously catching the eye at Wolverhampton over 7 furlongs in May. With a clear run she would have gone really close as she had to contend with the widest draw, and found herself severely hampered in her challenge in the home straight.

Her subsequent final start for the Varian yard at Goodwood was better than the bare for suggests. When last seen four weeks ago on her first start for new connections, Arab Cinder caught the eye when finishing well in the closing stages.

She has enough stamina for this new trip as a full-sister to 1m 6f winner on the All-Weather. Three pounds lower than her excellent Wolverhampton run and down in class she rates a major chance in this field from a good draw.

10pt win – Arab Cinder @ 9/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 12th September 2022

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3.50 Thirsk: Class 4 Novice Stakes, 5f

I have been waiting for Lory to run in a suitable race ever since her move to the UK. In my view she ran better than the two forms suggest since switching from Andre Fabre to Julie Camacho back in May.

She showed good early speed on both occasions, albeit racing way too freely over 7 furlongs and subsequently 6 furlongs as well. Nonetheless, the Wolverhampton run looks quite good on form terms and the way she travelled for a long time after a long break was encouraging.

Obviously, she didn’t fulfill expectations in France. Fancied on her first two career starts as a juvenile in the famous blue Godolphin colours, she caught the eye on both occasions, though. Things didn’t quite go to plan both times but it looked obvious there is some talent.

A drop to the minimum trip on soft ground could certainly suit here. The wind operation suggests not all was right lately. With that in mind there is every chance she can improve quite a bit with those issues hopefully put to bed and race conditions possibly to her advantage. Certainly she could be good enough to win a race as poor as this.

In saying that, Proclivity also caught the eye a few starts back and find ideal conditions here. She’s the main danger. I go with Lory for the reason that I believe she offers more upside.

10pts win – Lory @ 11/2

………

8.30 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 3f

Bottom-weight Picual looks potentially well-handicapped in this field. The lightly raced filly seriously caught the eye on her first two runs in Handicap company.

She thundered home in impressive style when she got off the mark at Nottingham – she won only by a neck but with much more authority than the winning margin would tell.

Next time at Sandown she was desperately unlucky. She trailed the field, the eventual winner went from the front and got first run; she endured a troubled passage and only got out late to finish second.

The handicapper hasn’t been harsh, thankfully. She is only 2lb up for the effort, and only 6lb altogether since Nottingham – form that has worked out really well.

Picual looked still learning on the job in all her runs. She is prone to miss the start, which is a concern. In this small field it may not be too much of an issue, though. The additional furlong looks sure to suit.

10pts win – Picual @ 5/2

Betting

Sunday Selections: 11th September 2022

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3.55 Doncaster: Group 1 St. Leger, 1m6½f

New London is the right favourite. I’ve followed his season with joy, given he was one of my 5 To Follow for the season as well. He’s gone from strengths to strengths and will have a good chance to win this Classic.

This isn’t a vintage renewal and New London has got the strongest form in the book, plus has beaten some of todays rivals already – therefore it’s easy to see why he is clear at the top of the betting.

It’s hard to argue that his Gordon Stakes victory is a key piece of form that makes him the one to beat today.

Yet, I have some reservations over the combination of trip and ground. New London has got a fair chance to stay, though stamina isn’t a certainty over the Leger trip.

More so, his best performances came on fast ground. While It won’t be bottomless today, there is going to be significant give in ground, nonetheless. The price suggests there are zero worries about either parameter. I have concerns and with that in mind have to oppose him at this short price.

My clear number two on the shortlist is Hoo Ya Mal. A surprise runner-up in the Derby, he was subsequently third behind New London in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.

On the surface he was fair and square beaten that day. Nonetheless, in my view he is much more closly matched with the favourite than the final result of that race and the price difference in the betting today suggest.

In the Gordon Stakes Hoo Ya Mal seriously caught my eye, in fact. He improved in fine style from five furlongs out; he made rapid progress in the home straight and hit the front two furlongs from home. Ultimately, he paid the price in the closing stages for this huge but inefficient effort.

Plenty has been made of Hoo Ya Mal’s subsequent and most recent victory in the March Stakes. It was a workmanlike performance, rather than a fleshy effort against inferior rivals workmanlike style. But he showed enough to enhance his reputation in my book: he produced a solid change of gear and proved his stamina.

It was a lovely Leger prep, I feel.. Everything points to a big run today. The trip will suit. The ground is unlikely to pose an issue. Different ground conditions and the additional distance could easily see Hoo Ya Mal turn the table with New London.

He’s also closely matched on topspeed with the Godolphin horse: 107 for Hoo Ya Mal’s Derby run; 108 for new London’s victory at Goodwood.

I struggle to make a serious case for other horses in the race. The “hype horse” Haskoy has to prove her class significantly up in class. Eldar Eldarov could improve back over this sort of trip. But I don’t rate him a better chance than Hoo Ya Mal.

Emily Dickinson looks a huge price, and has a solid each-way chance I feel. She stays the trip, has the pedigree and clearly talent; with ease in the ground she may find a bit of improvement, and that would make her dangerous.

10pts win – Hoo Ya Mal @ 8.6

……..

1.15 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 6f

Top-weight Power Under must carry a huge weight in this race. The jury is out whether he’s truly as good as his current 110 Official Rating. However, with soft ground sure to suit, I believe in these type of conditions there’s every chance he is that good, and perhaps a few pound better, in fact.

It has to be, if he should go close today. In saying that, if that turns out to be a correct assessment he’ll be a huge runner in this Premier Handicap.

The 4-year-old caught my eye when last seen over this course and distance. He finished third that day but fared best of those up with the pace. The form looks strong, with the winner holding his own in Group races subsequently, and the runner-up winning a Handicap off a big weight.

One can discount his penultimate run in Group 2 class when he welt, but he was strong in the finish landing a Cork Listed sprint. he seems to do well off breaks, so not having run since June isn’t a concern.

Power Under Me has yet to run to a noteworthy topspeed rating. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though. Today he’s got a super chance: a group horse in a Handicap….

10pts win – Power Under Me @ 10/1

……..

2.25 Curragh: Group 1 Flying Five, 5f

As intriguing as this contest is, especially with Highfield Princess and her wonderful success story this season, the market overestimates her chances today, I feel.

She may well struggle after all her recent exertions on the deep ground likely encountered up the Curragh straight. She handles the going, no doubt, but I firmly believe the rain does suit A Case Of You much more.

Especially over the minimum trip, as A Case Of You holds the strongest piece of form in these conditions – his Longchamp victory from last October in heavy going, awarded a 114 topspeed rating, gives him an outstanding chance if he can be in the same form today.

He was an excellent runner-up in the Flying Five 12 months ago, before landing the Prix de l’Abbaye in dramatic fashion. He proved that wasn’t a fluke when winning the Al Quoz sprint at Meydan earlier this year.

Since then two lesser performances raise a few question marks. But with conditions sure to suit today, a fresh A Case Of You should be hard to beat.

10pts win – A Case Of You @ 8.4