Right now it feels like I might never back a winner again. It’s quite absurd what’s happening at the moment. Obviously I have been here before, back in the early summer…. and what followed was the most dramatic turnaround.
Last night, once again everything went wrong that could have gone wrong for my selection. Spring Is Sprung was so desperately keen he was done by the time the field approached the home straight.
Of course, the other horse I fancied on the day – but didn’t back – won 30 minutes later handsomely. It’s just the way it is at the moment. I can’t get it right, no matter what I do.
In any case, here’s hoping for the turnaround sooner rather than later….
2.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This could be quite a fast race that ends in a war of attrition. That may suit the first time blinkered Chief Of Staff. I’m not sure he is all that well handicapped over this trip, though.
One I feel is overpriced is Ben Macdui. He ran better than the form suggest on a number of occasions this year, including last time out.
He’s another 5lb down, now 12lb below his last win, a 6f Handicap success at Newcastle in March. He’s never been in the same form again since then – although, his last two runs give some hope.
He’s got a good draw here to make sure he is bang up with the pace and remains pretty unexposed on the All-Weather, actually. Three strong speed ratings, that indicate he’s got a higher ability than his current rating add to the possibility that Ben Macdui could outrun this price.
The yard is in poor form. 0-30 over the last fortnight. However, closer inspection shows the majority of runners were really big prices with about a third having outrun their price, in fact.
In all likelihood Ben Macdui will fade from 2f out and finish second last. He’s overpriced in my book, though; and if he can find some form again, he could land a big surprise here.
10pts win – Ben Macdui @ 50
7.15 Wolverhampton: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Not many horses in this field make a great deal of appeal to me. Obviously, if freshly gelded Hierarchy could run to level of form he showed earlier this year, he would be hard the one to beat. It’s a big if and he’s got a lot to do off a 102 mark.
Dubai Station really interests me in this race, though. He’s the one on speed ratings they all have to get to, given he’s 2lb lower than winning at Chelmsford in May when running to a 91 TS rating.
He ran to strong levels of form subsequently – at Chelmsford in July and even more so Ascot in September. 3lb lower than when 3rd off 96 in a hot Handicap there last month, he wasn’t seen to best effect the last two times back on the All-Weather.
He messed up at the gates at Chelmsford, also wasn’t all that sharp here at Wolverhampton when last seen; although, that was a strange race how it panned out and I felt he ran better than the 3.5 lengths margin behind the winner suggested.
He’s got a slid draw today, and if he starts well, as he normally does, bar the last two races, he should have a hot pace to aim at sitting somewhere around midfield.
At the same time if he doesn’t get off to a solid start he will have to play catch-up and will likely have too much to do. Nonetheless, he’s got the speed and the class to feature, hence looks a big price.
10pts win – Dubai Station @ 17/2