2.00 Haydock: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m
With Classic Charm out this appears a wide open race with barely anyone appearing to be well handicapped. The one who have more to offer is Sootability, though.
The 3-year-old hasn’t shown anything of note this yer yet, but as an April foal by Camelot she may still find some improvement with time. The fact she also ran to a topspeed rating of 68 on her final start in 2018 shows there is a least a bit of hope also.
After four poor showings in 2019 Sootability has dropped to a 65 rating now, she also drops down to class 5 for the first time and back to a slightly shorter trip, which in combination may well turn out to be a magical combination – at least in the context of this race.
10pts win – Sootability @ 10/1 MB
4.40 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
If Admodum would find back to some sort of form he’ll be in with a massive shout. In fact, this looks like the ideal race: a poor field, he drops further in the mark down to 60 now, a good 5bl claimer in the saddle plus most importantly fast ground!
If appetite for the game is still there I’m pretty confident the ground conditions will make a massive difference. The last time Admodum raced on a fast surface he won.
Obviously on old form he is massively well handicapped. But it is a concern the poor efforts he showed for more than a year. Albeit over potentially trips stretching him or ground not quite as suitable. Second start off a break for the new yard today, while the market speaks favourably – big shout.
10pts win – Admodum @ 13/2 MB
7.35 Newcastle: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m 4.5f
Soloist looks a possible improver for the switch to Tapeta as Camelot has quite a fine record on this surface, even more so with fillies. This 3-year-old also showed a bit of promise already when a good runner-up at Carlisle in June.
She ran to a topspeed rating 70 that day, so currently on 68 official rating, with potential to improve for the surface, as well a still being rather lightly raced, supports the notion that Soloist could be well handicapped today.
The drop in trip looks positive; only thing I worry about is the potential pace angle and that she may sit off the pace in a slowly run race. Otherwise there isn’t much to beat here and I suspect she is certainly better than a <70 mark.
10pts win – Soloist @ 7/2 MB