Frustrating Sunday. Frustrating weekend… would, could, should. Al Husn and Up And Under solid 2nd place efforts. Although, it was a poor ride by Mikey Sheehy in the Derby Trial.
The pace wasn’t hot and he gave the colt way too much to do. Al Husn ran well but had no chance with the winner. I think she should be capable of winning a Group 3 over 10 furlongs, though, and remains on my list.
Remarquee never seemed to travel and was beaten before the 1000 Guineas approached the halfway mark. Mawj, who I mentioned in the preview as “a danger I seriously rate”, won in a thrilling finish. Of course I left her unbacked.
Sir Benedict was the “cherry on the cake”. Not. Yes. I’m talking through my pocket, and of course the horse is one who finds trouble consistently. But there were ways to avoid it here. Callum Rodriguez made every effort to ensure he finds the trouble today. Disappointing.
Well, it could have a been a sensational weekend. It wasn’t. The winner on Saturday helps to even things out, to the most part. On to Monday….
…….
7.15 Windsor. Class 5 Handicap, 5f
I am prepared to give Concierge another chance after his solid but ultimately uncompetitive effort at Yarmouth last month. I backed him that day, despite some reservations given the surface and trip.
He moves up in grade but drops down in trip. I don’ think this race is overly competitive, so I’m not concerned about the class. However, I do fancy him over the minimum trip, especially with cut in the ground.
He’s a course and distance winner as well and has dropped another pound, down to a mark of 65. That’s only a pound off the 64 speed rating he achieved back in March at Kempton – although that was on the sand.
Nonetheless, that run clearly showed he’s still well capable to run to a competitive level in these lower grade.
That day Concierge was a serious eyecatcher as he travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside and showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.
He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.
As mentioned before I do forgive him the Yarmouth run, too. Deep ground and 6 furlongs – it was an error of judgement on my part. This test here will suit perfectly.
10pts win – Concierge @ 8/1
………
8.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
A competitive race on the sand for this class with many chances, but that helps to drive the price for Bayraat to a point where it’s impossible to ignore him.
He drops down to 0-65 level here after he ran with tons of credit on his seasonal reappearance at Southwell in a slightly tougher race over 7 furlongs five weeks ago.
He crossed over from the #8 draw to lead the field early, before following closely the leader, doing so a little bit too keenly. He hung in the closing stages, but ran on nicely at the same time.
That performance was in line with the one that caught my eye for the first time back in November last year at Newcastle over 6f when he was lightly bumped after the start, quickly moved forward and found plenty under pressure from 2 furlongs out. That form looks solid.
You can easily forgive him a subsequent poor showing (15/11) over 7 furlongs as he was restraint at the back of the field and never in the race.
He only made his belated handicap debut at Southwell and appears off potentially well handicapped now off 65 as he drops into an easier race as well as moving down in trip.
6 furlongs with a stiff finish such as here at Newcastle may well be an ideal scenario. On his only course and distance run he was a strong runner-up. The winner that day ran well in class 3 company off 83 subsequently, whereas third and fourth placed horses have won in the meantime.
Saturday was wild. Harry’s Hill won, despite drifting out to 15/2 SP. He won like a ‘good thing’, though. I was stuck with 9/2 in any case, so the drift was no good to me. But I had him a good point shorter in my book, anyway. So, happy days.
Not so much a “happy ending” in the 2000 Guineas. Silver Knott was never going to win once the rain arrived. And there was a lot of rain! So much so it turned the ground to proper soft.
I’m upset with my eagerness to back him early, instead of having waited until Saturday to make a much better informed decision. Poor decision making is what eats profit.
And then there was Hi Royal. A huge price, could have been backed at 150s in the morning. Surely a small each-way bet would have been on the cards, especially as he was one of my 3-year-olds to follow and I wrote about him:
“Could be somewhat of a “dark horse” for the Guineas… given the speed he showed in his first two career starts. Clearly he’s seriously talented”.
Well, he ran a huge race to finish 2nd, looked like the winner even, before hanging badly. A missed opportunity. Sometimes I just don’t trust my own judgement enough.
………
It wasn’t a bet but I was nonetheless incredibly delighted, simply as a racing fan: everyone who follows this blog probably knows I love South African racing, and have grown particularly fond of 3-year-old colt Charles Dickens.
He was back today, down to a mile against his own age group. He won with authority, produced his usual stunning turn of foot and it was simply great to see him back to somewhere near his brilliant best.
It was a super ride by Aldo Domeyer, who made progress at the right time before it was too late as the pace wasn’t all that hot, and then trusted the acceleration of Charles Dickens, that was instant, to move through the gap on the inside.
The Durban July has been ruled out. Which is rather obvious, given the colt didn’t get home over 10 furlongs. But another crack over a mile against older horses would be seriously intriguing. The Gold Challenge at Greyville next month has been mentioned as a potential target, indeed.
……..
3.00 Newmarket: Dahlia Stakes, 9f
The ground throws this race wide open and I feel progressive filly Al Husn is possibly underestimated. She’s one of the horses I gonna follow keenly this season. Moving up to Group 2 level is asking plenty of her, but I believe she showed enough last year to think she could have a solid chance to be in the mix.
It may turn out that she isn’t quite good enough, but the filly loves it at Newmarket and is likely to enjoy the soft underfoot conditions, given she won impressively on good to soft when last seen and seems to hit the ground quite hard, too.
I loved her win over a mile in a class 3 Handicap here back in September, when she ran home strongly to win a shade cozily. She was even more impressive, I thought, when she moved up in class and trip to win a hot class 2 Handicap a few weeks later over 10 furlongs at the Rowley Mile.
She became a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before she hit top gear and sprinted home strongly to win with authority once again.
Dropping down to 9 furlongs in proper soft conditions shouldn’t be a problem. She showed plenty of cruising speed in her races and has the pedigree to stay, possibly even beyond 10 furlongs.
I’d be surprised if she isn’t ready for her reappearance. Roger Varian wouldn’t throw her into the deep end, otherwise. Yes, she has a bit to find on ratings, including speed ratings, but she has an opportunity to show that she belongs here. She looks the value in this contest.
10pts win – Al Husn @ 10/1
………
3.25 Leopardstown: Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes, 10f
Up And Under was an unlucky runner-up in a photo in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. He travelled much the best, made smooth progress on the outside of the field until he got tight for room and badly bumped 2 furlongs from home.
It was impressive how he gathered momentum following the collision as rapidly as he did to fight it out in a battle with potentially smart White Birch. If he wouldn’t have been hampered, could he have won? I think he might have and then would be a shorter price.
🏆Ballysax Stakes (G3) 2000m, 50.000 EUR, for 3yo 🇮🇪Leopardstown
White Birch (GB) (3C Ulysses – Diagnostic, by Dutch Art) J :Shane Foley T :John Joseph Murphy O :Mrs C C Regalado-Gonzalez B : Cheveley Park Studpic.twitter.com/XWnK4F15L6
He clearly acts on soft ground, as he also ran a lovely race on debut on heavy ground in his sole start as a juvenile last October.
He looks a lovely prospect for middle-distance races this year, and could also step up to 12 furlongs.
For now, this presents a good opportunity to score in Group company because favourite Proud And Regal may well be the default favourite but the Donnacha O’Brien trained colt’s Group 1 win at the end of last season doesn’t look overly strong form.
The price is just about getting quite skinny now and I would not go below 11/4, to be honest.
10pts win – Up And Under @ 11/4
…….
3.40 Newmarket: Group 1, 1000 Guineas, 1m
Favourite Tahiyra is all class. The way she won the Moyglare last season was incredibly impressive. It’s the standout piece of form and she ran a good 99 speed rating as well, without having to go all out.
The vibes from the Weld yard were somewhat mixed leading up to the Guineas. However, it’d be hard to believe such an experienced handler would send her over if she wouldn’t be ready to go.
She beat Meditate at the Curragh in the most impressive style. Hard on the bridle with two furlongs to go, she never saw the whip, yet produced a sensational turn of foot.
I think she’s not a bad price at all, even. Certainly the one to beat on paper.
Meditate, runner-up in the Moyglare went on to win at Breeders’ Cup subsequently. The Aiden O’Brien trained filly should rate a key danger once again.
She ran to a 104 speed rating when runner-up behind speedy Lezoo in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Therefore, she possesses plenty of speed and looks well capable to stretch out to a mile as evident at Keeneland. But that was on firm ground. The soft going is a a bit of a question mark.
Aforementioned Lezoo would be seriously dangerous if she could stay a mile. She looks a sprinter to me, though. Somewhat similar doubts hang over recent Nell Gwyn Stakes winner Gammas Girl. The Guineas is a much deeper race, but it’s far from a given that she can get home over the additional furlong.
Dreams Of Love and Mawj bring solid form from Meydan. Is that form good enough? Maybe. Mawj ran excellent speed ratings and has experience on her side. She’s a danger I seriously rate.
But there is absolutely no doubt in mind that they all have to beat Remarquee, including the filly herself. What I mean is: she is obviously a tricky filly, can be raw, awkward and looks seriously green in her first two career runs.
At the same time she created a huge impression on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
That day she didn’t have the clearest of runs, before she accelerated really well from two furlongs out. She looked far from straight forward, carried her head awkwardly, yet won with tons in hand, nearly on the bridle, eventually.
Remarquee is now 6/1 from 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas after success in the Fred Darling at Newbury.
Obviously I’m biased because I flagged her as a 3-year-old to follow. But it’s difficult not be impressed by what she has done so far, exactly because she was so green.
That recent experience can only help. So should the step up to a mile and the soft ground, which is going to suit her more than many here. I must back her at current prices.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 7/1
…….
4.58 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Sir Benedict ran too poorly to be true at Catterick when last seen less than two weeks ago. His rider relinquished an advantageous draw and steered away from the far rail, which was no help at all.
But I do remain faithful to him, even though, one could ask: is there ever going to be another day for him to shine? He’s probably one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year.
He’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door a number of times and having dropped another two pounds lower than. At the same time, I maintain that he looks cherry ripe.
To go up and run over 6 furlongs again is a risk, though. He can pull hard when there’s no pace to run at. You never know how the race is going to develop, though, it looks likely that they good a decent clip here.
He caught my eye a number of times over the last weeks and months. Especially three runs ago at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.
And prior to that also at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.
The soft ground at Hamilton should be to his advantage, as well as that he’s a course and distance winner, who won here off 60 and ran to a 64 speed rating last June looks.
However, on proper soft ground the stiff finish may stretch him, especially if he shows any signs of keenness early on. That’s a the risk. He’s irresistibly well-handicapped, though, I’d follow him over the cliff another time again, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.
If you’re prepared to oppose 6/4 favourite (at the time of writing) Auguste Rodin then the first Classic of the 2023 flat season appears to be a wide open affair.
In my view, including the favourite, there are serious question marks looming over all of the better fancied horses here, though. That adds to the intrigue but also difficulty to untangle the puzzle.
That may not be unusual, given it’s only May, and half the field didn’t have a run as 3-year-old colts yet. But it feels there are more profound question marks many have to answer this time than in preceding years.
Auguste Rodin has been hailed as a potential Triple Crown winner. You can see why. Three wins from four runs last year, he finished the season with a Group 1 triumph in the Futurity.
He’s expected to improve massively as a three-year-old, especially once he moves up in trip. Any rain would be a huge help to his chances as well.
On the other hand, the fact he hasn’t achieved overly impressive speed ratings yet – although, perhaps not helped having to run on heavy ground the last two times, as well as that he always stayed on strongly more so than having a blistering turn of foot – has me questioning his speed on better ground against proper milers.
Trained by Aiden O’Brien, who knows better than most what it takes to win the Guineas; nonetheless, the price is skinny and he appears beatable.
Stable mate Little Big Bear was crowned Europe’s Champion Juvenile after a demolition job in the Phoenix Park Stakes at the Curragh back in August. That was over 6 furlongs and he wasn’t seen again last year.
He looks a sprinter to me, even though the dam side gives some hope. Yet, he showed so much precocious speed as a juvenile, I have clear doubts that he stays a mile at Newmarket in a hot 2000 Guineas.
Chaldean progressed with each run last year, winning twice in Group class before his season culminated in a superb Dewhurst success. He achieved a 106 speed rating, which is “best in class” in this Guineas field.
He has his quirks, though, as evident at Newmarket when he started slowly, and also on his seasonal reappearance in the Greenham where he wore a hood to post, before becoming distracted by a rival starting right beside him, jinked to his left as a consequence, and unseated Frankie Dettori.
I have reservations on that basis, as well as over his stamina. He kept on well enough over 7 furlongs, but how much more is there to give over an additional furlong? The dam has produced largely speedier types.
Royal Scotsman was a superb juvenile. He ran on well for a close 2nd behind Chaldean in the Dewhurst. He got the trip, seemingly. Not sure how much scope he has to improve, given he started his career in early May last year.
A mile doesn’t look impossible on pedigree, but Sakheer is another one who may prove best over over shorter distances. He didn’t ran particularly fast on speed ratings either. Craven Stakes winner Indestructible can’t be easily discounted, given he has that CD record. But he may not be classy enough for a Guineas and it’s a quick turnaround after that big run only a fortnight ago.
Even though he is only 1/5, I quite like the look of Holloway Boy as one outrun his price tag and possibly finish in the placings. He can be upgraded for some of those placed efforts last year and is sure to progress as a 3-year-old, given he’s a son of Ulysses.
Charlie Appleby saddles two: Gimcrack winner Noble Style hasn’t been seen since August. I have major doubts over his stamina. You wouldn’t have any worries about stamina with stable mate Silver Knott, though.
A winner of three of his six starts last year, he progressed nicely through the season from a 4th place beaten behind Chaldean on debut, to winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at the Rowley Mile.
I can forgive him a poor showing in the Champagne Stakes when he finished a disappointing last of five. The ground got him beat. He definitely prefers better ground.
He showed a lot of class at Newmarket in September, though, when he beat smart Epictetus. The way he found another gear from two furlongs out, and then always just doing enough, impressed me, as he also ran to a 105 speed rating.
Silver Knott finished the year with a desperately unlucky runner-up performance at the Breeders Cup. He wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate, appeared plenty keen enough throughout, and got stuck behind rivals at a crucial stage. And yet, he only got beaten in a photo.
No doubt, he’s likely to be seen to best effect once he steps up to 10 furlongs – granted he has trained on, which we will have to see. He’s got solid stamina in his pedigree.
At the same time, he looked speedy enough as a juvenile, and showed a nice change of gear a number of times. The ground as it stands should be a huge bonus to his chances.
However, the rain forecast is a serious concern. How much is going to fall between now and then? The clerk watered the ground which is just bizarre given the forecast.
We’ll have to find out. I gamble on the fact that there isn’t enough precipitation to turn the currently as good to firm classified going to anything worse than good to soft.
Anything worse than good to soft would be a problem. But I can’t see that happening. Therefore, at the given prices, Silver Knott looms as a major value bet in my book.
10pts win – Silver Knott @ 12.5/1
……….
1.35 Naas: Handicap, 5f
An Irish Handicap with 21 runners? I couldn’t think of anything less appealing as a betting proposition.
And yet I find myself incredibly bullish about the chances of Harry’s Hill. He was an eyecatcher on his last two runs against much stronger rivals. Yet, despite those two excellent performance he has been dropped a whopping 4lb (whopping by Irish standards) for those runs.
He came to my attention for the first on his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh at the end of March:
He was somewhat awkwardly away from the gate, but then showed blistering early speed to lead the field. He was going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.
To some extend it was a similar story last time at Cork. However, that time he also had to overcome a draw disadvantage, and was racing as part of a small group on the far side. He won on his side, and once again travelled very strongly for a long time.
On both occasions he was up against it on class terms. Both runs warrant additional upgrading because they came on extremely deep ground.
His record on ground not worse than yielding over 5 furlongs – it looks fair to assume the ground continues to dry as it’s quite warm, sunny and breezy here in Naas with no further rain of any significance expected – is excellent: 7-2-3.
This is an easier race, on his preferred ground and trip. The stiff finish is the only slight concern I have. Though, he won at the Curragh which also has an uphill finish, so perhaps it’s no big deal.
On speed ratings he looks also competitive off his current 73 mark, which is 3lb higher than his career best from last year, when he seemed to take his form to a new level.
He ran to a 71 speed last season, rating but I have well founded hopes that he could improve by another couple of pounds in ideal conditions once again.
10pts win – Harry’s Hill @ 9/2
There’s one more I quite like but have to decide in the morning, if there’s some positive vibes in the betting, and will update the post accordingly.
One from three, Totnes saved the day with a late charge to win ultimately with authority, though. The wide draw was a concern and he had to come from last to first on the wide outside. Thankfully he had too much in hand. He was well backed as well (6/4 SP).
Far From A Ruby was disappointing. However, I wouldn’t lose faith. Perhaps she was too keen, perhaps the ride was too aggressive, as the sectionals look fast, if they can be believed. She’ll have her day in the sun sooner rather than later.
Compere ran well but didn’t have any excuses. Perhaps the race was more competitive as I gave it credit. In any case, he wasn’t quite good enough.
We’re in May, a couple of days away from the first Classic of the season. Yet, here I am having another three selections for Newcastle on Friday after those two runners at Chelmsford on Thursday.
……….
7.55 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Intriguing contest largely due to some unexposed horses that could improve for experience and their handicap debut.
More exposed than most here but still open to improvement off her current mark is Bella Kopella. She caught the eye the last time over 7 furlongs here at Newcastle:
She was early up with the pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. She made stylish progress from over 2f out as she moved forward and travelled like the winner. Perhaps she did too much in the middle part of the race as she tired badly in the final furlong.
The form of the race is up for debate, however, she won really well four weeks earlier over the same CD, also travelling powerfully in the middle of the race.
Nonetheless, she finished not particularly strongly that day either. Both times off a hot pace, though. She has shown good cruising speed, hence the drop to 6 furlongs looks possibly ideal, especially here at Newcastle.
Bella Kopella was progressive as a juvenile, is clearly an experienced filly at this stage, but looks still open to more improvement, as she ran to a 59 speed rating lto when she won in March, in a race that worked out really well in the meantime.
10pt win – Bella Kopella @ 15/2
……
8.25 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Macho Pride is a standout in this field. He looks seriously well handicapped on his second run for the Ruth Carr yard.
He ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather during the winter months and showed positive signs the last two runs as well. Soft ground was never to suit when last seen, but there as well as prior over this CD he showed excellent early speed and enthusiasm for the game.
Especially two back, his 8th place finish was a much better run than the bare form may suggest. It was strong race, and as a reference performance for his form it’s really promising.
He drops into a much easier race here on the sand now and showed also on the clock some solid performances in the not too distance past. Last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+, in December he ran to 56 and February 54, both times over 6 furlongs at Newcastle.
It’s pretty obvious that he is seriously well weighted off 54 now, if in peak form, which I imagine his last two runs have helped to get him ready for.
10pts win – Macho Pride @ 9/1
……..
9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Beneficiary looks so ready and has found the perfect race, I firmly believe. He ran a massive race in February over 6 furlongs at Newcastle, when he came to my attention, and he should really benefit from the drop to the minimum trip.
Back then he moved forward, pushed a good pace as part of a duo initially, before he grabbed the lead 2f out, still ahead approaching final furlong but then tired rapidly.
It was a strong performance in a very strong race and he followed up with another strong run from the front when last seen. He tends to be keen and go off to hard over 6 furlongs, hence the drop to 5f will be helpful.
He drops into a much easier race here and has been given additional help from the handicapper as well. He ran to a 63 speed rating in January, so a mark off 60 offers a great chance.
The fact there is plenty of pace here should be a bonus. He doesn’t have to lead, but rather can follow the front-runners and wait for the right moment to kick on as he has stamina for an additional furlong.
One third of 2023 is over. It went fast. Thankfully, after a rough start, with losing months in January and February, March and April got me back on track.
April finished with another winner last Thursday – I watched Pillar Of Hope on my small mobile screen while boarding for a plane to Germany to stay on strongly to win his Beverly race. He got home in the nick of time, literally.
He made it winner #7 for April. 235 points profit, from 23 selections in April. Only last November was a more profitable month in the last three years.
Annual P/L makes it 300pts up for the year now from 101 selections.
Far From A Ruby has been nicely progressing with each run since her return in early February where she entered the list of eyecatchers.
That day over 6 furlongs, a trip too sharp, she showed good early speed and enthusiasm, which was exactly what I hoped to see. She followed up with another solid run subsequently, although still seemingly short of full fitness.
She’s approaching peak soon as evident three weeks ago at Southwell when she tracked the pace and was right there until fading back to 4th place, 2 lengths beaten.
She now appears to be seriously well-handicapped in this type of low-level apprentice handicap as she goes up in trip. Turf and fast ground won’t be an issue.
Though, down to a mark of 54 offers a huge opportunity. She ran to a 58 speed rating at Ayr over 7 furlongs back in September. She ran to a 50 speed rating when last seen, when not fully tuned up.
I have full faith that she’s still as good as last autumn, and won’t have an issue making up the pounds needed to reach the same level of performance. She stays a mile, has a 3-1-2 record over this course and distance and hasn’t much to fear in this poor field.
10pts win – Far From A Ruby @ 3/1
……
5.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Plenty of unexposed horses and you never quite know what you get. However, I’m quite hopeful Totnes can be better than her current 71 rating now that she moves up in trip.
Last time out, given she was an odds-on shot, she was probably disappointing the way she finished in 5th, especially as she travelled very strongly in rear of the field, made good progress from 3f out and loomed large entering the home straight.
Her challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to her left, which is a concern, as well as that she can be keen in the early stages.
I’m prepared to excuse the run because she was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run. Something must have bothered her a few weeks ago – whatever it was, I hope it’s fixed now.
Her pedigree points to stamina and a good chance that there’s more improvement to come as she moved beyond 7 furlongs. Ideally i would love to see her at a stiffer track, but the fact she travelles well and could have a class edge against this opposition makes me cautiously confident.
I don’t think many of her rivals have a lot of scope, while she offers plenty of upside. Totnes looks like a filly capable to progress beyond marks in the 70s.
10pts win – Totnes @ 5/2
………
8.15 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Compere looks to have found a nice chance to score. Even though 13 go to post, not many seem to be here to win. Hence I’m not worried about the #6 draw at all, which is good enough to get easily to the front in a race with not much pace to compete against.
The gelding is still pretty lightly raced but took his form to the next level when last seen over this course and distance at Chelmsford over a mile.
He endured an awkward start, heavily bumped a rival before then finding himself in front, overcoming the issues out of the gate, eventually settled in third.
He kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, and kept going strongly. But he had no chance with winner from off the pace, eventually.
This is strong form. The winner was back-to-back winner; the third won last time out and finished third subsequently. The 4th won next time out.
Compere was a 50/1 shot, so clearly outran his price tag there. He now drops in class, down to 0-55, and the fact that solid but ultimately exposed Thomas Equinas heads the betting says all about the strengths in depth of this field.
The handicapper was kind to Compere, as he left him on the same 56 rating. Even though. I imagine the gelding will eventually prove better over 10 furlongs, he’s shown enough speed for the mile and should find this easier, in order to run out a strong maiden victory.
Pretty quick turnaround for Ventura Flame, who ran about a week ago over this course and distance.
It was huge performance, and that’s a question mark whether he can back it up so quickly. On the other hand, it’s only his second run this year and he looks in great form.
When last seen he tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before he was beaten by a strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.
He’s down to last winning mark from spring 2022, since then ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year and drops into an easier grade here.
There doesn’t seem too much other pace to compete against, hence the #7 won’t be an issue. That aside, there doesn’t seem to be any real danger in this field either. He should be too good off a his74 mark.
10pts win Ventura Flame @ 3/1
……..
4.00 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f
This looks a wide open contest but without a clear and obvious favourite. Even though I would prefer a slightly longer trip for him, I still think it’s worth to back Pillar Of Hope in this field.
For a 5-year-old he’s quite lightly raced and the reason for that might be what appears to be his rather light frame. Perhaps that’s the reason why he performed well upon his return off a break in the past.
Indeed, in early March, after 110 days away from the track, he ran pretty well when 5th at Newcastle in a pretty strong race.
He was alertly away, disputed the lead, until he came under pressure from 2 furlongs out. He was quickly going backwards, but eventually kept on rather strongly up the stiff finish.
Beverley isn’t that stiff. but the slightly longer trip, up the hill to the line, on possibly rain softened ground with solid pace expected, should make this enough a test of stamina.
He achieve a career-best last September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating and winning off 82. Now 2lb lower, he could have enough in hand against this opposition even over this trip.
Rain is forecasted for late afternoon. The earlier arrives the better, to ensure there remains some of that good to soft before off time. Also the fact that he had ample time to recover from the recent outing gives hope.
Dog Fox done the job on Tuesday. We knew he’s a tricky sort and irrespective of the hood he pulled hard in the early stages; no problem, though – he was too well handicapped on his debut, as hoped.
He was well backed, went off 3/1 (backed at 5s). The 6th winner in April. It’s unlikely I’ll break my “career-best” of nine winners in a single months. Still, from only 20 selections, a 30% strike rate, that’s unusually high for me…. so, waiting for it come crashing down.
Bridge Water was disappointing, but they ran so slow, she never stood a real chance. Dark Design was friendless in the market and never landed a blow.
I can see how Golden Gal turns out to become the gamble of the race here with her return fresh from a wind op, having strong course and distance form.
But I do like my recent form, and as such, one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year is Sir Benedict. This lad is SO ready, I can see a scenario where he just runs way with this in the final furlong.
But I also can clearly envision a scenario where he runs on late for 4th place. Because he’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door and having dropped to a rating that is more than realistic.
In saying that, the drop to the minimum trip should suit in theory, as long as it doesn’t dry out completely, and he doesn’t mess up at the gate, as he can do.
Ignore his latest run. 6f, a muddling pace and no cover never gave him any chance. He pulled like a train, and in that context he still caught the eye the way he travelled to challenge for the lead from three furlongs out, before running out off steam.
Look no further than the two runs prior, though. Two back at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.
And prior to this at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.
What gives me plenty of hope is: 1) a low draw – in theory he should be able to track the pace; 2) the hot pace, which is to suit him, especially if he can use the inside lane, safe ground and use the extra bit of stamina he possesses.
The cut in the ground is to his advantage as well, and now down to a mark of 59 he’s simply looks irresistibly well-handicapped, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.
Big Bard produced a great finish to run out an easy win by about 4 lengths today. The 5th winner in April.
He simply was so well handicapped with the 7lb claim of excellent Alec Voikhansky in the saddle, who gave the gelding a cool, patient ride: waiting for the gap to open on the inside, before he stayed on strongly in the final furlong.
I was deliberating back and forth last night because of the big field and the slight questions over the likely proper soft ground. But in the end the prevailing thought was the gelding is too well handicapped to let go. A correct decision in the end.
I was sweet on Dog Fox earlier this month before he was withdrawn after being upset in the stalls. There’s a concern over his behaviour here as well, of course.
But that aside, the same reasons as back then apply here too, why I’m prepared to back him again. For one, this isn’t a strong race on paper. Not many appear to have a large amount of scope to outrun their current handicap marks.
Dog Fox is also an intriguing horse: one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark for him.
This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.
He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.
An opening mark of 62 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.
The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers. The application of a hood may help to calm him.
10pts win – Dog Fox @ 4/1
…….
6.25 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
There’s no question Aihawawi is a great chance in this race and was a huge eyecatcher last time out. Off the same mark here, with the #3 draw to attack the race from, he could be hard to beat.
On the other hand, he was probably beaten for speed at Newcastle, and stayed on up the stiff finish in the closing stages. Does the sharper, less stiff Wolverhampton suit?
At 6/5 I’m not prepared to find out and rather take the proverbial gamble on another eyecatcher, that is Bridge Water. I say gamble because there’s every chance the filly is twice the price tomorrow afternoon.
But I make an as much as possible informed decision and risk assessment that says, all I can judge right now in terms of information in front of me, says she’s too big a price in this field. I have her much, much shorter.
She caught the eye two back at Kempton. There she was restrained from the widest draw and and trailed the field, nicely settled. She travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out to eventually finish much the best. She was simply poorly positioned, otherwise she could have won that day.
The form itself isn’t strong, but the way she finished was noteworthy and in line with her prior run that warranted an upgrade too.
Over 6f she probably doesn’t have the speed to win, I feel. But she could improve for the step up to 7f. She’s by Starspangledbanner with a7.0f stamina index, out of an unraced Le Havre mare.
She also has a lowly 49 mark. The return to the All-Weather is a plus, as she didn’t enjoy soft ground when last seen.
10pts win – Bridge Water @ 10/1
…….
9.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Dark Design ran a huge race in defeat when last seen at Lingfield. He moved quickly forward from his wide draw to slot in right behind the pace setter, but had to do a lot to get there just before the first turn.
He tracked a very strong winner racing in second place, travelled well approaching the home turn. He didn’t have the pace to match from 1.5 out and tired in the final furlong. A fine form, also given the fact he covered about a lengths more than others in front of him that day.
He ran petty well in recent weeks and months, including achieving a 50 speed rating here as well s a 56 one at Chelmsford in January. He’s clearly in strong form and now has been given a chance by the handicapper.
Dropped 2lb to a mark of 55, with a good draw and a CD that may suit, he’s well weighted. He Won off 55 and 57 last season and should enjoy a strong pace to track here which should bring his extra bit of stamina to the fore in the closing stages.
A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.
With the flat season under way, it’s time to shift the focus away from the sand finally for good. Hence this is the start of the new series for the2023 flat season.
There can still be a few horses on the list that caught the eye on the sand, given All-Weather racing never sleeps. But the majority will come from turf from now on. Good times!
……..
Maywake 10/04/23 – 4.01 Redcar:
Bit awkward away from the gate. Swiftly moved over to the far side, travelled strongly as part of the group there, still on the bridle 2f out. Had to sit and suffer, before finally out 1f out and ran on really well to finished best.
Lovely return off a break. Down to a mark of 80 now. Won off similar mark last year (also ran career best 84 speed rating). Enjoys cut in the ground and looks ready to run a big race once again in those conditions over 7f.
Swiftly moved over to join the pace full of enthusiasm, a bit too keenly, doing too much. Nonetheless, travelled the best approaching the 2f marker, everyone else off the bridle. Tired rapidly inside the final furlong.
Strong return, especially on soft ground. Raced a lot for a May foal last year and may not have much scope for improvement. But down to realistic 55 mark again, won off similar plus speed rating last year.
Best form on decent ground. Worth to wait for those conditions, given she doesn’t have tons in hand, but is one who could strike on the right day in these early days of the season.
Disadvantaged by widest draw, settled in rear. Turned widest for home while going best, smooth progress to hit the front at final furlong marker but hang badly to his left. Won well with plenty in hand I believe.
Impressive how he won on this ground against the pace bias. Almost certainly better on decent ground. Only 3lb up. Lightly raced, gelded during winter. There’s more to come.
Not ideal low draw in soft conditions here, moved quickly toward the centre, that was costly; going okay for a long time before tiering in the final furlong.
Comeback run can be upgraded. Down to good mark. Ran to higher speed ratings last year and won off current mark. Much better on decent to fast ground over the minimum trip and dangerous in those conditions.
Settled wide in drear from second widest draw. Looked poised over 2f out and tried to make progress through a gap that suddenly got tight and she got bumped several times by rivals. Kept going well to the line.
Superb run in circumstances. Lightly raced. Ran solid speed rating on the sand in line with her current mark, but possibly even more so open to progress on turf.
Should have a chance to stretch out over 7 furlongs on decent ground, but 6f with cut may prove the ideal trip.
Went forward and made most after an initial pedestrian first furlong set a strong pace. Under pressure from over 2f out when headed by strongly travelling rival, but kept going gutsily and finished second best in final furlong behind winner from off the pace.
Nice reappearance, first time expected to run well. Still lightly raced and open to progress over 7f, perhaps also on turf on decent ground.
Early up with pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. Stylish progress from over 2f out to head the leader and move ahead. Travelled like the winner but did a lot in the middle part of the race. Tired badly in the final furlong.
Progressive as a juvenile, and won well over this CD upon seasonal return last month. Looks still open to more improvement, ran to 59 speed rating lto and travelled like a “good thing” here.
The way he fell away in the final furlong was a bit concerning but they went hard and he did a lot to push the pace as well.
Tracked pace early on before putting more pressure on the pace setter. Did too much in the first half of the race in desperate conditions. Most that finished better races more restrained. Tired from 2f out.
Solid comeback. Prefers better ground. Course and distance specialist. Won off 85 and multiple times off in and around 80, including running to 80 speed rating last season.
Dangerous if he drops below 80 now on better going, ideally at Windsor, but also ran well at Goodwood and Newbury.
Set the early pace, showed excellent early speed. Did way too much in desperate conditions and fell away rapidly from over two furlongs out. Still really positive the early speed he showed.
Ran well lto at Kempton clocking a good speed rating. Clearly in solid form. NTO can be ignored in hot company.
Prefers better ground. Ran well last season of mid 80 marks, including 3x 80+ speed ratings. Mark should be revised and becomes really interesting in right conditions. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.
Bumped a rival as she hot out of the gate. Quickly relegated to the rear of the field. Going okay turning for home, but not quite a clear run in the home straight until gap opens up properly at the final furlong marker. Finished much the best.
Handicap debut, looks like she wants further, and pedigree says a mile could see her improve. Opening mark wasn’t a giveaway and jury is out whether she is ahead even if she steps up to a mile.
But she ran here to 61 speed rating in less than ideal circumstances. With natural improvement there is every chance she can make up the gap and be better than 68.
Overcame his #9 draw quickly to come across and grab the lead. Travelled well enough for a long time, only headed over 1f out and tired late.
Fine seasonal reappearance. Good form. Down to dangerous mark. Ran well off higher last year, including a 62 speed rating. Flexible ground wise on turf over 7f.
Tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before beaten by strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.
Excellent seasonal reappearance. Down to last winning mark from spring 2022, ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year.
Looks in good form. Not a huge margin for error but dangerous if allowed to dominate.
Went forward really hard to get the lead no matter what. Raced wide as a consequence for most of the race, finally in front as the field turns for home, but tired badly as a consequence of early exertions.
Bumped into a few well-handicapped ones lately. Still ran huge races. Somewhat in the grip of the handicapper but looks capable to win off 59 in race with less pace to compete.
Return to turf would be interesting for possible improvement. Won over 5f on soft in France.
Travelled strongly, smooth progress from 3f out, on the bridle, went on to press the lead approaching the final furlong but tired badly.
Perhaps didn’t get home over the stiff 7f. Still lightly raced. Won a maiden over 5f prior. Opportunities off current 67 rating over easier 7f or drop to 6f looks no issue.
Raced in midfield and made excellent progress to grab the lead from over 2f out in his group. Did well to win the near side group from the wide draw#. ( other 6f race on the card also won decisively by far side)
Fine comeback run. Down to excellent 80 mark now. Won off 80 and last year. Ran to 82 speed rating as well. Ripon specialist.
Travelled well when tracking the pace, but stuck in a pocked from 3f out. Looked dangerous if a gap would ever open. No clear run until late when getting tired.
Good comeback run. This should be solid form for this low grade. She won her final race as a juvenile on handicap debut over 6f, which is strong form.
A 61 mark offers opportunities over sprint trips for the filly. She was arguably unlucky not to finish better here but also should come on for the run.
Keen to get on in the early part but restrained to track fast pace a few lengths off. Got rolling from 3f out, big move, pressed leader from 2f out. Established good lead but eventually caught half a furlong out by winner who was ridden more patiently in the middle part.
Excellent comeback. 1lb above last winning mark but ran three times to speed ratings 70+ last year. Clearly ready to go, ideally over 5f. Can run well downhill. Ascot entry next week intriguing.
Crossed over soon after the start from his low draw to the stands’ side rail. Tracked good pace, move from over 2f out, in a head-to-head battle with the leader from 2f out all the way to the line. Just beaten in final 50 yards by horse from off the pace.
Strong comeback run after over 300 days off. First proper performance since moving to the UK but also first time on soft ground.
Cut in the ground seems key. Fall to sexy mark. Has speed for minimum trip and stays 6f.
Off to an okay start, travelled well enough, but repeatedly a clear run denied from 3f out. Tried to get through an opening inside the final furlong just to be squeezed out again.
Would have gone close. Comeback run. Plenty of issues at the start in the past. Hood seemed to help here. Fallen a long way down in the ratings. Seriously dangerous.
Best over 7 furlongs, but 6 furlongs on proper soft off current low mark a possibility. Looks in superb form judged on this run.
Big Bard ran with plenty of credit the last three times and caught the eye in two of those. He returns to turf and to a course and distance he got desperately close to win back in October.
He came on my radar on the final day of 2022, at Lingfield, when he showed good early speed to lead, seemingly enjoying himself in front of the pack before he got tired and fell back rapidly from 1.5 out.
He was too keen the next time over 7 furlongs, but finished strongly at Lingfield back down to 6 furlongs when last seen in March. Both 6f Lingfield forms look rock solid and confirm that he’s not far off winning form, in my view.
As he returns to the 6f as Windsor, where he was only a shoulder beaten in a tight finish back in October, he can now race off 58, 5lb lower than then.
It’s also intriguing that Big Bard is re-fitted with cheek-pieces. He responded really well to wearing them for the first time in that aforementioned Windsor run.
In addition, the 7lb claim of talented apprentice Alec Voikhansky gives his chance in this race here another boost, if he can handle the soft ground. There is more rain expected, so it may turn to proper soft on the day.
There’s hope, though. He ran well on good to soft in the past, but also won on fast ground, off his current 58 mark, that was his last win, back in October 2021.
This is a competitive race, already given by the 16 runners. Not too many appear overly well-handicapped, on the other side. Big Bard does appear to be one of the better handicapped runners, in any case.
It looks like this race may have been a target to get him ready for over the last weeks. Certainly there is a bit of money this evening already, with the early bigger prices rapidly vanishing. Thankfully I still got what I wanted for my entire stake, although we only see tomorrow whether there is anything real about.
Horseracing - International . COM 