Tag Archives: Tiggy Wiggy

Preview: Royal Ascot – Friday Selections

Home Of The Brave

King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)

Ol’ Man River is hugely talented but something has been amiss this year; tongue-strap is fitted now. He looked like as horse with breathing problems, so this gear can help sometimes. But I’m concerned, and not prepared to back him at short odds.

Favourite Stravagante was seriously well handicapped at Epsom, steps up in Grade here and has surely more to offer. Not so sure, though, whether he really wants this trip. Ballydoyle’s second string Father Christmas is seriously well bred but not for 12f. That says he looked slow over shorter. Festive Affair and Balios may not appreciate the step up in trip. Magic Dancer should have the stamina but also has loads to find on form.

I give John Gosden’s Mr Singh another chance. He looked potentially smart when winning a hot Handicap at Newbury. Subsequently disappointing at Goodwood, which was a strange race. He was green that day, and the form looks good with the winner a subsequent Derby third. He needs pace and fast ground. Second point is given, first one unclear. Trip looks fine.

Mr Singh @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

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Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Couple of fascinating runners here. Obviously speedy Hootenanny is well fancied. Won at Royal Ascot last year and proved to stay a mile at the Breeders Cup. How good he’s coming back as a three year old dropping back in trip, we’ll see. His prep run against very poor opposition didn’t tell us anything. Tongue tied for the first time, I’d be slightly concerned.

Another clash between Anthem Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy. Both with good form this year. I feel the Hannon filly is the slightly better one. Her 1000 Guineas run is a massive performance, given the sectionals she clocked. She might be fighting with Hootenanny for the lead though. Let’s see how that works out.

I restrict myself to one bet in this race and that has to be Home Of The Brave. Mentioned him as an unlikely eye-catcher after the 2000 Guineas. He failed to stay the mile which is no surprise given his pedigree but ran with loads of credit. He confirmed his excellent Listed success over 7f on his seasonal reapperance when he clocked a very fast time. He run the last three furlongs in hand stopped 33.80s and did that easily – this lad has serious speed!

Drawn towards the rail in box two, have to wait and see how it pans out with so much pace on the other side. But I’ve no concerns about the in trip and think there is a huge performance due.

Home Of The Brave @ 18/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Coronation Stakes (Fillies’ Group 1)

People makes excuses for Found; a bit too many for my liking. This is tougher than the Irish Guineas in my mind and she is a silly price in my book.

The French filly Ervedya was a second behind her last year in a big Group 1, but ridden differently now and more mature, I’m sure she’s the better one. She won the French 1000 Guineas in utterly impressive style. Ground is the issue, though. Nothing in her form nor pedigree suggests that she wants it fast.

That’s the opposite for Bolger’s Lucida. Her runner-up effort in the 1000 Guineas was a monster performance. She fell out out of the gates but travelled well, made a bit too much too early and therefore hit the front too early. Nonetheless she went just down to Legatissimo, no disgrace to finish 2nd, well clear of the rest of the field. The winner in contrast had the run of the race, covered all the time, with gaps opening at the right time.

The sectionals confirmed how strong Lucida’s run was. On another day when things are not working to the textbook for the winner, she’s going to prevail easily. If she can follow on from the Guineas, here with conditions to suit, she’s hard to beat.

Lucida @ 7/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2 Handicap)

Dabadiyan is a huge price and rightly so judged on his recent form – but less than 12 month ago he was still able to be competitive in Listed company. Before that he had a rather decent stint at Meydan. He was competitive in Handicaps of big marks and even finished with loads of credit in two Group 2’s.

Quick ground and 12f seems ideal for him judged on his best. A mark of 100 looks still high enough but if he can find back to form he’s able to run a race. I expect him to overcome his draw and to be very prominent. Since he stays a bit further as well he might be still there when others are really hurt. He might as well finish stone last.

Dabadiyan @ 66/1 Ladbrokes – 2.5pts E/W

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Queen’s Vase (Listed)

Very hard to know who’s going to stay this trip, However I’m pretty certain that Star Rider won’t lack the stamina for 2 miles; she might however lack class. But lightly raced she is, done well to win a Chelmsford maiden over 13.5f, found the drop in trip not what she needs at Goodwood subsequently. On rating she has loads to find, but there is stamina all over her pedigree.

Star Rider @ 66/1 Ladbrokes – 2.5pts E/W

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Preview – 1.000 Guineas

Rowley Mile

The ground for Sunday remains quick at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile – perfect conditions for an exciting renewal of the 1.000 Guineas. The field may lack an obvious superstar at this stage, but  maybe there’s a new one born as soon as the horses have been crossing the winning post? We will see. It certainly looks a wide open affair.

The Favourite:

Godolphin’s Lucida is currently at the head of the market. She replaced long-time favourite Found in that particular position. The Ballydoyle filly is out, though, and her abscense has ripped a big hole into the betting market. Lucida is currently trading a 6/1 chance – not exactly a favourite in the true meaning of the word, is it?

The Shamardal filly hasn’t done too much wrong in her career. She was a progressive juvenile, finishing a close second behind Cursory Glance in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, while following up with an impressive success in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. Subsequently stepped up to 1m on her final start in 2014, she finished only fourth but the soft ground was probably against her.

One would think that on pedigree the 1m trip is ideal, so is the quick ground. Question mark is – did she train on? We haven’t seen her this season yet and have to find out this afternoon. She is a pretty good chance on her two year old form, though.

The Challengers:

Fadhayyil, currently a 7/1 chance, finished a good runner-up behind Lucida at Newmarket last year in the Rockfel. She has only had three starts to date and won only a maiden, but the step up to 1m looks sure to suit. If she can improve a bit for experience and distance, she is fairly closely matched with Lucida. We haven’t seen her this year either, though.

Lightly raced Jellicle Ball only won a Kempton maiden to date but clearly stepped up to pattern class when she repapered last month in the Fred Darling Stakes over seven furlongs. She is well bred and talented. With the recent run under her belt she’s bound to come on a good deal for an excellent runner-up effort that day. She is supposed to be better over further, so 1m looks a perfect trip for the moment. She is a big runner and money is coming for her.

David Wachman’s exciting Legatissimo won a Listed event over 9.5 furlongs last week. She loves the quick ground and is clearly very talented, but the drop in trip isn’t sure to suit her. However she is the choice of Ryan Moore and has to be respected for that simple reason.

Royal Ascot winner Osaila proved that she trained on thanks to a gutsy success in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f last month. She has good form over 1m from her only start over this trip when she ran out a fine 3rd at the Breeders Cup. She will need to improve a good deal, though, in order to be competitive today, I feel.

The Raven’s Pass filly Malabar proved her class in hot Group 1 races last year. Good performances in the Prix Marcel Boussac and Moyglare Stud Stakes give her a fair form chance if she has trained on. Recent Fred Darling scorer Redstart is not out of this either. She won well but has to improve for the new trip here again and one would think that runner-up Jellicle Bell is a better prospect, given that Redstart had everything going for herself from the front, which might not be the case here today.

The Outsiders:

There is plenty of money coming for Tiggy Wiggy. She is now into 10’s which is madness in my eyes. Apologies for the harsh words – but I have to be honest here. Maybe I eat my words afterwards, but that’s fine. I simply can’t see her stay. She is all speed on pedigree. She is all speed on visual impression. And she has been a precocious two year old sprinter, who doesn’t look to have grown allot over the winter. Others make simply much more appeal.

UAE Guineas and Derby winner Local Time is an interesting runner. She won at Newmarket over 7f last season but has particularly excelled on the Dirt this year at Meydan. if she can translate this form to turf now, she is not out of it. That says more is required here and others may have more scope.

Aiden O’Brien’s sole runner is Weld Park Stakes winner Qualify. She was a good two year old but has to step up a good deal here, as well as has to overcome a trip that looks like stretching her stamina. Irish Rookie won a Listed race over course and distance last November. Much more is needed today and the ground is a question mark too. Kodiac filly Terror looks up against it over this new trip.

Leaves me with the biggest outsider of them all – Queen Nefertiti. This Galileo filly, trained my David Wachman appears to be pretty overpriced in my eyes. A 33/1 shot at the moment, you can get 1/4 odds and 4 places with Paddy Power – this looks big value. Why? Well, this filly won on her debut last year a good maiden in pretty taking style and was ever since thought to be a Guineas horse.

She made her seasonal reappearance at Dundalk recently, the day when I was there and to be honest I really liked what I saw. She looked excellent in the parade ring, clearly has trained on and finished a nice third in a hot little race while only beaten in a very tight finish. She travelled strongly throughout, but gave the impression of greenness in the closing stages when she seemed to be a bit intimidated by the other horses beside her. She was literally sandwiched in the final half furlong, and didn’t stick her neck out as a consequence.

I would expect Queen Nefertiti to come on a good bit for the run. She should have learned plenty as well and with trip and ground very likely to suit, this extremely well bred filly could be able to outrun her big price tag. She is my selection against the field, in a wide open renewal, where I probably most like the Gosden filly – but can’t see 7/1 as a particularly appealing price.

1.000 Guineas – Newmarket; 1m, Group 1
Queen Nefertiti @ 33/1 Paddy Power – 0.5pts e/w

Preview – Fred Darling Stakes

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I loved Tiggy Wiggy last year – a real speedball! One has to wonder though: Can she still improve? And does she actually stay beyond six furlongs? On pedigree I’d say probably no, she won’t last further than 6f. The visual impression of her races also clearly indicates that she is all speed – The 7f trip however is where stamina starts to kick in. Says, I feel on her seasonal reappearance over this trip she is opposable.

But who is the filly to beat her? The Kempton winner Jellicle Ball was very impressive on her debut. She may well be up for. Trip is probably fine, but I don’t really like her pedigree. The one that caught my eye is Redstart, though. Sh was unlucky on debut not to win when she was probably a bit surprised when the eventual winner cam late staying on out of nowhere. This form has been franked subsequently, so is one to take seriously.

She made amends with a dominant performance at Kempton subsequently. Probably not a particularly strong maiden, but she looked good. Redstart is entitled to improve a good bit now as a three year old, and probably she’ll be better over further in time. Ground is fine today, however, and she deserves a fair crack here. For a tasty price, I think she is the one who could take advantage if the hot favourite fades late.

Redstart @ 14/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win