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Betting

Monday Selection: September, 10th 2018

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5.45 Chelmsford: Class 4 Novice Stakes, 7f

Open looking contest. On paper there seems little between Balladeer, Just Later and Rockshore, who is in my eyes the most interesting of the trio, hence Balladeer certainly a wrong price.

But it’s Miss Green Dream who catches my eye with Harry Bentley in the saddle. The filly showed promise in two starts over shorter. Particularly the most recent run looks strong form on paper. She was minded in both starts also.

Stepping up in trip is surely what this filly needs judged by how she was outpaced in her two previous starts and on pedigree. The switch to the sand is interesting and may help her combined with the new trip to improve significantly, having the added bonus of a good draw.

Bentley and trainer Williams have an excellent record together this season. Particularly with two-year old’s. It’s possible that this race is only another stepping stone to when she’s going handicapping. But all the evidence mentioned above suggests she’s got as good a chance as the rest in the field at a much bigger price.

Selection:
10pts win – Miss Green Dream @ 10/1 Sky

Betting

Saturday Selections: September, 7th 2018

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Leicester Racecourse home straight

4.15 Haydock: Group 1 Sprint Cup, 6f

Hard to argue against red hot favourite Harry Angel…. if he’s top fit and back to his best. That’s a big if. He’s coming back from an injury here and can easily get fired up. With ground not ideal, I feel he is vulnerable.

That says, he’s the defending champion and won this race last year in similar conditions when quite a few things were staked against him. So he’s the one they all have to beat. What I’m saying is: Harry Angel is beatable here. Certainly at short odds not one to play for me.

Plenty of better options given the odds available here. I’m siding with Jim Crowley’s mount Eqtidaar. An excellent winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot when getting home with a bit to spare despite hanging badly in the final furlong, he looks certainly overpriced here being harshly judged by one poor subsequent outing.

He was comprehensively beaten in the July Cup, so clearly needs to bounce back. But given he showed fine form in his two seasonal starts prior to Royal Ascot could mean Eqtidaar simply had a bad day in the office.

round conditions will be totally different to Ascot. In saying that he has shown to act with cut in the ground. A winner on good to soft and runner-up in the Group 3 Pavilion in Stakes on genuinely soft ground on his seasonal reappearance make me think Eqtidaar is going to be fine.

The draw may not be totally ideal as it may favour those wider drawn given how the race could pan out in these conditions, it’s also where the pace looks like to be. At 28/1 that’s a risk worth taking.

Selection:
10pts win – Eqtidaar @ 26/1 PP/MB

……….

4.50 Haydock: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Largely consistent top weight Gracious John hasn’t been good in his most recent race but showed multiple times this year already that he is still very competitive in this class and off this type of mark.

He’s been running to higher TS ratings than his current mark in the past and achieved twice this year alone a 93 and 95 TS rating, suggesting he’s as good as ever. Returning to sharp 5f and most importantly with cut in the ground will be a big help for this course and distance winner.

Gracious John has a 40% strike rate in 5f Handicaps, won already two times this year, including a 5f Handicap of a mark off 98 in good to soft conditions. For one who can go forward his draw looks perfect also.

Selection:
10pts win – Gracious John @ 15/2 PP

Betting

Sunday Selection: September, 2nd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Lightening Dance and Double Reflection come into this in excellent form. Form that looks solid, also on the clock. So this is an ultra competitive fillies’ handicap, despite only a small field.

The one I feel that’s potentially underestimated is Last Enchantment. She won a shade cozily a 1m contest at Nottingham in May of a mark off 72, running to a RS rating of 75. She hasn’t been disgraced in higher grade and longer trips subsequently, so her last run in July was quite a surprising  disappointment.

She has a wind surgery since then and also dropped a couple of pounds in the mark to a sexy looking 73 – if the wind op does the trick for the Camelot filly.

Last Enchantment is bred for this trip and shouldn’t mind the ground either. Interestingly jockey Charles Bishop has generally a fine record if having only one mount on a given day, but it increased dramatically if that ride is at Brighton.

Selection:
10pts win – Last Enchantment @ 4/1 WH

Betting

Saturday Selection: September, 1st 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

1.50 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

New trainer and only his third run this year, Global Applause has plenty to prove today. Particularly as he has top weight to shoulder as well.

On the other hand, he drops in class into a race that may well be as competitive in nature as most of the others he ran in the past but arguably an easier one. Down to a mark of 97 it remains to be seen if he is up to it these days.

On past form, having run to a career highest time speed rating of 98 and 90+ on more occasions, Global Applause has surely got a fine chance. He was a smart juvenile, lightly raced as a three year old and certainly no disgraced when a less than two lengths beaten 5th in a red hot Doncaster Handicap of a mark off 98 in his final run in 2017.

This year has seen him back to form on his seasonal reappearance when runner-up at Newbury, though it is his most recent run at that very same venue back in May that has left big questions to answer.

Drop in class, drop in trip and back at Sandown with a bit of juice in the ground is hopefully enough to see Global Applause find back to his best.

Selection:
10pts win – Global Applause @ 11/1 MB

……

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 31st 2018

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4.25 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Leigh’s Law won a shade cozily on handicap debut a fortnight ago. Making all from the front, he ran his rivals into the ground and was able to pull out more and more when the tough questions were asked.

The travelled really well in what was described as good to soft ground, so today’s conditions shouldn’t pose a problem.

A 3lb hike in the mark is fair enough. Here’s hoping the small step up in trip help Leigh’s Law, as he seemed t keep galloping strongly in the closing stages. Natural improvement on what will only be his fifth career start could see him overcoming this task.

Selection:
10pts win – Leigh’s Law @ 14/1 MB

Betting

Thursday Selection: August, 29th 2018

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5.00 Catterick: Class  5 Handicap, 6f

It was a narrow margin on the line last month when Indian Pursuit won over course and distance. The five year old is a true course specialist and has won off higher marks here in the past. Most notably his final win in 2017, over CD of a mark off 65.

He’s been running to time speed ratings a good deal higher than his now revised mark off 62 in the past also. So in theory the 3lb raise for the latest success may not stop him yet.

It was a much more commanding win than the winning margin says, in my mind. First time visor fitted seemed to help as he crossed over from a wide draw and went to lead by a frantic pace by a couple of lengths for most parts and only inside the final furlong he tired.

Same conditions today, the wide draw, as we have seen, isn’t a problem. Indian Pursuit looks in with a big shout once more.

Selection:
10pts win – Indian Pursuit @ 13/2 MB

 

Betting

Sunday Selections: August, 26th 2018

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3.15 Beverley: Class 3 Nursery, 5f

The short priced favourite is a foolish price in this rather competitive nursery in my mind. Most importantly, that leaves my selection Snazzy seemingly undervalued in the market.

This filly won – arguably a not overly strong race, granted – very impressively on debut earlier this year at Newcastle overcoming all sorts of trouble. Subsequently placed in Listed company, she was found out for class stepping up to Group 2 class at Royal Ascot.

But, despite not coming too close to win, Snazzy ran extremely well in defeat in two subsequent starts when things didn’t quite went her way in highly competitive events that have worked out well form wise in the meantime.

A drop to the minimum trip should work in her favour and with first time visor applied from a good draw I would expect her to go forward here.

Selection:
10pts win – Snazzy @ 10/3 PP

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4.25 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f 

I was keen on Ghazan on handicap debut back in May after the colt showed plenty of promise in three juvenile starts, particularly the final run in 2017 looked excellent form.

From a wide draw he had a lot to do at Leicester on what was his seasonal reappearance and always travelling wide as a consequence didn’t make it an easy task. After coming briefly off the bridle over 4f out a shake of the reign saw Ghazan travelling notably strongest of all until nearly 2f out when he then tired and wasn’t given a hard time.

That form has worked out quite well in the meantime, so the fact Ghazan was able to travell all over that sort of field is encouraging as I felt beforehand he might have been underestimated by an opening 75 mark.

He’s on 74 today, drops a bit in trip. That in combination with the rain arriving should suit him well. Hanagan is in the saddle, a bonus. Question remains why the absence since May. If he’s fit and well then Ghazan should have a big chance today.

Selection:
10pts win – Ghazan @ 11/2 PP

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5.20 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

A pretty consistent runner. albeit on the go for a long time, Roundabout Magic is one who more often than not gives you a good run for your money. He is also one who finds trouble on a regular basis.

So happened a week ago at Windsor. He travelled strongly and seemed to come with a big run when badly hampered 2f out.

He’s already won this year and was multiple times placed plus ran a career high time speed rating of 67. This small field should suit, if the pace is on.

Selection:
10pts win – Roundabout Magic @ 6/1 VC

Betting

Friday Selections: August, 24th 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

5.45 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 5f

Bottom weight Sister’s Act sparks my interest here. This Equiano filly has shown early speed in her few starts before, totally unfancied though, it wasn’t a surprise so her finish flat.

She now makes her handicap debut off a low mark in a not overly competitive contest switching to the All-Weather which should suit her better on pedigree. Her mother is a winner on the sand as daddy Equiano has a sublime record on the All-Weather with his 2yo offspring over sprint trips, particular on left handed tracks.

Interestingly, trainer Peter Hedger’s record with juveniles on the All-Weather is also quite excellent (small sample size, but fits in well with his general performance in AW Handicaps).

With that in mind there is every chance Siser’s Act gets her act together today.

Selection:
10pts win – Sister’s Act @ 16/1 VC

Betting

Thursday Selections: August, 23rd 2018

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4.50 York: Class 2 Handicap, 7f

Ultra competitive and in-running luck will play its part here, though it can be argued Move Swiftly has a cracking chance if all goes smoothly given her progressive and at the same time impressive profile.

Further down the packing order seems Richard Fahey’s Clubbable who’s not expected to run well if the market is any useful guide. I feel this filly has a bit more to offer than credit is given to, though.

She’s won two races this year already, was visually incredibly impressive when landing a good Chelmsford class 2 Handicap in June when things didn’t go to plan but she found a superb turn of foot once in the clear.

She backed this up with another big performance in the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle when a close runner-up behind 100 rated Dance Diva. A subsequent Newmarket run stepping up to a mile was disappointing, however once shouldn’t judge her too harshly on a subsequent 16th place finish at Ascot most recently.

She received a heavy bump right after the start by the horse to her left and found herself subsequently behind a wall of horses and on the disadvantaged far side.

She’s down to a mark off 92 which looks high enough but also offers room for a bit of improvement with the right conditions. She will need luck in-running given her often sluggish start, but if Clubbable gets the right breaks she’ll have a better chance than her current odds suggest.

Selection:
10pts win – Clubbable @ 29/1 MB

Betting

Wednesday Selections: August, 22nd 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.50 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Impart has slipped dramatically in the weights having one last year of an 18lb higher mark. He has ran well a handful of times, though. Most notably in June over course and distance off 5lb higher than his now career lowest rating.

That form looks rock solid and a similar showing today would see Impart go really close. His latest run is concerning, though. Twelve days ago he was here at Brighton a long way beaten over 5.5f – his worst performance in his last six outings.

This is not a particularly strong contest today, on the other hand. Returning to 6f should help while the going isn’t an issue.

Selection:
10pts win – Impart @ 7/2 MB

……..

5.10 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Despite being on a losing streak of 13 consecutive runs, judged by two of his three runs this year Red Gunner is on a winnable mark right now. He was unlucky not to get closer than third last time at Lingfield and the handicapper has given him a big chance leaving the mark untouched.

He was slowly into stride that day, then travelled powerfully, but ultimately didn’t get the breaks when needed and got going on the outside to late. Once steered into the clear, Red Gunner thundered home from the back of the field.

This, as well as his less than two lengths beaten 5th at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance as well as debut for the Loughnane yard appears to be competitive form that is strong enough to see him as a major runner here today.

Selection:
10pts win – Red Gunner @ 7/2 PP

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8.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Treacherous has been twice a CD winner this summer already. He’s been slightly regressive in his next three starts. However, he travelled supremely well last time out at Sandown despite pulling hard through the first half of the race, looking the likely winner, just to tire in inside the final furlong.

I still rate it a big performance and a return to Kempton should see him in better light. He achieved a TS of 71 when winning here in June, so only 2lb higher, there is still a possibility, particularly in this grade, that he can find a bit more as it also is still only his eight career start on the All-Weather, of which he won three and placed in another one.

It’s noteworthy that jockey Pat Cosgrave makes the journey to Kempton for this single ride. He’s also steered Treacherous already to success in the past.

Selection:
10pts win – Treacherous @ 6/1 Sky