Tag Archives: Betting

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Saturday Selections: Newbury

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3.10 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

I don’t understand why Beach Bar is such a big price. This progressive gelding absolutely hammered a decent field on his penultimate start and was utterly unlucky the last time at Newmarket when he got stuck in traffic on the inside rail but stayed on very well late when in the clear.

That performance indicates he may can overcome his career highest mark. Today looks a good opportunity for a big run with the trip to suit and the soft ground no inconvinience, which can’t be said for all in this field.

Beach Bar @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.45 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Here Comes When tops the list as the most likely winner. He hasn’t been disgraced in top class company this year and will thrive in these conditions. Same goes for last years winner Breton Rock, although this years renewal looks much stronger.

But from a price perspective I can’t leave Heavens Guest out. He may not be good enough at this level, but has been in outstanding form lately and deserves a go at this. He’ll love the soft ground and is a 7f specialist – he can go close.

Hugely underestimated seems to be That Is The Spirit. He also one who needs it soft and seems best suited to the 7f trip. He won a Listed race in excellent style earlier this year and has excuses for two hist last two poor showings.

That Is The Spirit @ 22/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Heavens Guest @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Wednesday Selections: Man Of Harlech’s a Big Runner

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Up In Lights is potentially very well handicapped on his debut in this company, and the weight for age allowance is a clear bonus. He may well hack up. But I believe there is massive value on Man Of Harlech, who could be a very potent threat here.

This will be the third run after a long break, during which he was gelded. He clearly needed his first run but was quite unlucky the next time at Sandown when poorly positioned and a clear run denied. However he finished very strongly with seemingly plenty left in the tank.

He drops in grade now, and this potentially easier opposition should help him to defy top weight. He is very nicely bred and comes from a family that does exceptionally well on the All-Weather. So the switch to this surface can be only in his favour today. At 9/2 he is an excellent alternative to the rather shortish favourite in my mind.

Man Of Harlech @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

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Betting: Saturday Selections

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Legatissimo

Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you’re back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today – hopefully ending it on a high note.

2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark.

Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair.

I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn’t expect and deem as too big.

Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

Global Racing

Friday Selections: Goodwood & Galway

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.35 Goodwood: Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

Bold entry from Mick Channon to send his classy filly Malabar into the race. But then, there are good reasons for it. Goodwood is the place of her biggest triumph, when she landed a Group 3 here last year. Since then she contested at the highest level against top class opposition while performing consistently well. She is however a filly who runs consistently into trouble as well.

She was unlucky in a handful of her starts, most recently in the Irish 1000 Guineas and subsequently the Prix De Diane. She drops markedly in class today and I believe that should make all the difference. She just doesn’t have quite the high cruising speed or change of gear you need at Group 1 level.

But down in Group 3 class, she should be a major player in this wide open race. Visors fitted may help her to stay focused until the race is over as she often travelles well but seem to lack sharpness when it really matters. Negative is De Sousa who just can’t ride Goodwood. But it’s worth the risk as Malabar strikes me as a filly with a massive chance.

Malabar @ 10/1 Sportinbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile Handicap, 1m

This should be an incredibly close race and I feel Ocean Tempest is very much overlooked. He hasn’t really excelled at Meydan and seemed to feel this tough campaign on his UK comeback in the Lincoln. Back from a break now, he is finally dropped to a realistic mark again in a grade where he belongs.

He has the draw to get into a positive position right from the start here, which should suit. He may not get an easy lead, but tracking it would work too. Off 105 he must certainly enter calculations if back in form, given he won off ten pounds higher last year.

Ocean Tempest @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Goodwood: Nursery, Class 2, 6f

Richard Fahey’s filly Zahrat Narjis makes plenty of appeal here on her Nursery debut. She is very well bred, by a sire who gets often excellent 2 year olds, out of a Group 3 winning dam. She showed promise in all her three maidens and now switched to this company should help her. She could easily be better than her opening mark off 72.

Zahrat Narjis @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Guinness Handicap, 1m 4f

Dermot Weld’s Show Court went close in this last year when runner-up off a 2lb higher mark. He travelled strongly but maybe hit the front a bit too early. 12f seems his absolute limit stamina wise and the same scenario could very well happen today again – but at 7/1 I’m rather on him, given that he appears to be well handicapped now.

Show Court @ 7/1 Betfed – 5pts Win

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Tuesday Selections

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Leicester Racecourse home straight

2.50 Redcar: Maiden Handicap (Class 6)

Normally this type of race wouldn’t be my cup of coffee. Too much guesswork required who is in it to win and who uses it as a public gallop. This Maiden Handicap is pretty poor, it’s simply the nature of the race. Some lightly raced individuals with low opening marks take dramatic step ups in trip and may well improve for it. Dew Pond is one who jumps out in that regard.

But it is the horse at the head of the weights who clearly is the most intriguing runner. The Cashel Man hasn’t shown allot as a juvenile in Maidens last year. But gelded over the winter, which often works wonders for High Chaparral’s and particularly for trainer David Simcock, he may leave those forms behind, now going handicapping for the first time.

Not only that, but The Cashel Man also takes a dramatic step up in trip, which on pedigree should suit very well and see him improving a good deal. He is a full-brother to decent Handicapper Thunder Pass, who took a similar route last year and improved from maidens to handicaps when stepping up in trip.

An opening mark of 63 is stiff enough for what The Cashel Man has shown so far, but this poor race represents an ideal opportunity to get off the mark with conditions very much to suit him.

The Cashel Man @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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8.00 Ballinrobe: Beginners Chase. 2m 1f

A rare trip to the jumps for me in the middle of the flat season. The reason is A Sizing Network. A lightly raced five year old who makes his chasing debut today. I have been waiting for this for a while, basically since he got off the mark in a maiden hurdle back in November. A Sizing Network was always going to be a chaser. He jumps big and bold and has the frame to be one.

It didn’t quite work out over hurdles for him, though he performed with credit in two of his three subsequent starts. He got beaten on the line in a handicap hurdle last month at Punchestown, when he made a big move maybe a bit too early and also seemed to idle in front after jumping the last. His only poor showing, leaving the debut out, came at Leopardstown over 2m 4f in soft conditions.

Two miles on good ground seems ideal and I imagine he can leave his hurdling form easily behind over fences. There should be plenty of improvement to come from this fresh, young individual. He has probably a bit to too find with the other market principles on pure form and ratings, but should be easily capable of doing so.

A Sizing Network @ 9/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Celebration Time!

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chockieflying4
WOW! What a week it has been – betting wise I mean! It’s a funny old game sometimes, isn’t it? Yes, It’s been a tough time for me in recent weeks if it comes to betting – I’ve been previewing races, shared my thoughts on tactics, analysed and assessed the chances of oh so many horses and was even bullish enough to published my selections here on a regular basis. But it just didn’t seem to happen for my selections. They either ran no race whatsoever, or – albeit only occasionally – hit the crossbar. Though getting the head in front when it really mattered? Nope, no way!

But that must surly be the beauty of horse racing and particularly betting on this sport: Things can change so quickly! One or two winners and suddenly your back in the profit – even after suffering a long losing run!

I encountered certainly a pretty gruelling losing run, indeed. 20! Yes, twenty losing selections on the bounce! That’s allot. However, I didn’t really think about too much and simply did my job. For me it is all about the value in the price and the profit in the long term. A losing run doesn’t mean that the bets haven’t been good. In fact 95% of all my bets placed this year are ones I would actually do again f I ‘d be in the same situation. I simply have to believe in my value. Sooner or later the winners would eventually fly in again. Otherwise it would be pointless, wouldn’t it?

It’s about confidence in the own abilities and having the right mindset. I’m certainly not the best punter in the world. Nor would I claim to be a particularly great form analyst. But there are things I’m good in and I’ve got skills that enable me to turn my betting into profit – in the long term.

That hasn’t been always the case in the past, but one has to learn from mistakes – or not?! In betting terms there can be quite costly mistakes. Though I believe I’m at a point where I learned from the past, and where know what I can do and also what doesn’t work for me. The believe in my skills ensured that I ‘knew’ the big winner is just around the corner. And so It happened – Finally, this week. Things kicked off with The Hangman in South Africa. A juicy 10/1 winner. It got even better with Flying The Flag at Meydan today, who landed a competitive Handicap at 7/1. The cherry on the cake was gutsy Chookie Royale who ran his rivals into the ground at Chelmsford and was a 13/2 selection this morning. Suddenly it’s all back in profit for the month!

I usually don’t fancy “shorties” (which doesn’t mean I’d exclude them completely – far from it – you can find value in hot favourites as well) and most of my bets are in the price range of at least 5/1 and upwards. It’s absolutely normal to encounter losing streaks if you’re betting on these kind of prices. However if I have value – theoretically a bet with a better chance of winning than the odds suggest – then I’ll turn things into profit in the long term. It simply will happen. I say that without any arrogance, knowing how much I “invested into learning the game” over the years. But saying that with confidence, while knowing I do make this game pay. However, one thing is most important than anything else. First of all I’ll always be a fan of the sport!

United Kingdom

Fresh Boonga Roogeta set to cause an upset

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Dream Child is on a four-timer and looks rock solid to perform strongly once again in the Wolverhampton feature today. Dropping to 9f shouldn’t be a problem as she has won over this trip before. With a good apprentice booked, the rise in the weight is offset to an extend. However one has to wonder how much improvement is still in her. Also she has a huge weight to shoulder today because of the big difference in ratings. She may well be good enough, but she better be at her best.

As always I try to oppose those short favourites and I feel with Boonga Roogeta there is one mare in the race who has the ability to cause an upset. She has won on the All-Weather in the past was mostly seen on turf in the last couple of seasons. She has slipped to a very handy mark now, as she won off similar or higher three races in the past. The last one at Brighton last May off 9lb higher than today. She likes to go from the front, and with her ability to get further she may well be able to dictate matters, set a strong gallop and fend off all her rivals.

She has been off the track for a while, but has performed strongly as a fresh horse in the past, and this record instils confidence that a big run is on the cards with her regular rider in the saddle too. Paddy Power is offering a huge price in this small field and it looks huge value to my eyes, so I’m bullish with the stake.

5.00 Wolverhampton:
Boonga Roogeta @ 8/1 PP – 10pts win

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Quick Tip: Tuesday 17th February

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Quick Tip
State Of The Union has left the Richard Hannon yard since winning a Kempton handicap in September last year. He was a very impressive winner on the eye that day when he overcame a very wide draw, using loads of energy early on. He was keen and exuberant and set a strong pace, drew clear entering the home straight and held on when getting a bit tired eventually.

Only upped by 4lb, he must be hard to beat here if he can go on from this run with natural improvement likely for this lightly raced colt. Fitness has to be trusted as he hasn’t been seen since this last Kempton success but this looks an ideal opportunity to score. The drop in trip to 5f shouldn’t pose a problem. He showed good early speed before and pole position should give him every option to make all from the front.

4.05 Wolverhampton: State Of The Union @ 4/1 Bet365

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Spes Nostra can make tactical advantage count

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Solar Deity hasn’t won in over a year but came close in similar races over CD off marks around up to 105. Should run his race but looks to need bit of help from the handicapper to get his head in front again.

Don’t Call Me goes well on the All-Weather and performed on Tapeta in Meydan. Has never won, nor placed over further than 1m. Stamina big question mark and current rating looks high enough too. Back from break.

Tryster is still very lightly raced and won over 10f at Chelmsford last month travelling strongly but showing some attitude when hanging badly as he did in the past already. Talented and potentially more to come despite up in the mark. Claimer booked, and the one to beat if he cane overcome his greenness.

Spes Nostra tried to make all in the race that Tryster won lto. Faded from 1f out. Unlucky last two, when done on the line and hampered at crucial stage. Still 6lb above last winning mark but 7lb claimer may help. Will be up with the pace.

Pivotman is progressive on the AW this winter and gradually improving. This is his toughest task to date and bit too find 2lb out of the weights. Wants to make all.

Steventon Star is four pounds out of the weights here and despite a slipping mark, has allot to find in order to be competitive.

Verdict: Tryster has a fine chance to follow up on his recent Chelmsford success. He looks talented and probably up to his new mark, even more so with a decent 3lb claimer cancelling almost out the rise. His tendency to hang badly in the closing stages is a slight worry, though, and at a short price at this different venue, I’m prepared to take him on.

Solar Deity will run his race and should prove a good pointer. He maybe vulnerable to some lighter weights however. The pace will come from progressive Pivotman. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares in this ultimately toughest test of his career. He is short enough in my eyes.

There is good money coming for Spes Nostra as well. Still he looks a big price for what he has potentially to offer. Also one who likes to be up with the pace, I imagine this could be more of an advantage around Wolverhampton than Chelmsford, where he attempted to make all the last time but faded 1f out, even though he got also hampered in the closing stages. He won over further in the past and showed a particular liking for Wolverhampton’s tapeta. He has yet to prove that he can win off a mark as high as the current one, but he has been a bit unlucky before and has a 7lb claimer on board today. That makes him a competitive chance.

3.00 Wolv: Spes Nostra @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts win