I was due a bit of good fortune, and got it: Almaty Star made all and held on, thankfully, in the tightest of photos to win at Chelmsford yesterday afternoon.
A 2 from 2 seemed on the cards when Brassavola kicked for home but she couldn’t quite sustain her effort and finished 2nd. A good day nonetheless, which I’m more than happy with, given there weren’t too many good days this year, so far.
That was close, but in the end it's Almaty Star who denies stablemate, Emperor Spirit to land the spoils in the Esprit Couture 1er Cru Handicap for trainer, Robert Cowell.@cowellracingpic.twitter.com/47nvZdfsl2
— Chelmsford City Racecourse (@ChelmsfordCRC) June 20, 2024
……
5.40 Ascot: Group 2 – King Edward VII Stakes, 1m 4f
A hot renewal and the pace should be on. You have to stay the trip, but at the same you’ll need to travel and find a good position. I reckon anything from well off the pace won’t feature.
A prime candidate who possesses these capabilities is the Aiden O’Brien trained Agenda. He is a bit on the drift this morning in the betting and can be backed at even bigger prices than the 7’s I took – I remain cautiously confident that he’ll run a big race, nonetheless.
He caught the eye on his two runs this season. Seriously green and raw at Dundalk when he returned from a break, he travelled off the pace and wider than ideal after an awkward start. He showed a nice bit of acceleration mid-race to get to the front and kicked clear in the closing stages.
He deserved his spot in the Chester Vase and ran a huge race I felt. He went quickly to the front and winded up the tempo from 5 furlongs out, having many of his rivals in trouble not much alter. He kicked for home three furlongs out and was only beaten by a potentially brilliant winner.
Agenda didn’t quite look at home at the ever turning Chester, I thought. He also hit the rails, becoming unbalanced, about 1.5f out which didn’t help.
He’s lightly raced with plenty of upside, improved with each of his three runs and showed that he can travel and change gears. I’m surprised he goes here and not to the Irish Derby as that could have been an ideal race.
Saying that, Ascot will be an equally suitable track. His draw should allow him to get to a prominent position quickly, perhaps following his stable mate Chief Little Rock in #1.
Whether he truly stays the trip is a small question mark, given the speed on the dam side and the fact he couldn’t quite sustain his challenge at Chester. But then Galileo as a stamina influence will help and the decent ground should suit.
Almaty Star was caught only in the dying stages at Lingfield earlier this month. She stays over the minimum trip with the cheek-pieces applied for a second time, able to race off the same mark.
She must have a cracking chance from the #1 draw here, even though there is tons of pace competition, it must be said. She caught the eye the last two times now, as her previous Windsor 2nd was also a strong front-running performance.
The filly has great early speed, which is vital over this course and distance, so she can utilise the draw to its fullest. She’s clearly in great form and a mark of 75 is not quite her ceiling. She ran to higher speed ratings in the past.
Obviously her win record is poor, but down to this career-lowest rating, with the top draw and a CD she finished second off 5lb higher last autumn, she’s got a prime chance in a race where few appear overly well-handicapped.
10pts win – Almaty Star @ 5/1
…….
4.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f
Brassavola looks quite interesting back over this course and distance with a decent draw to attack the race from. She got quite close back in November where she was still leading at half a furlong from home.
Back then she had to overcome a wide draw and did a lot to get across and into a prominent racing position. She edged closer to the leader bit by bit and took it up entering the home straight only to get caught fairly late.
It was a somewhat similar story a few weeks ago at Lingfield where she moved forward from a wider than ideal draw, caught wide early on, before getting to the lead. She hit the home straight in front before getting tired in the final furlong.
Truth told, there are some questions about her stamina credentials over this trip. However, her pretty decent full-sister won in seriously deep ground over a mile and these last two times it was possibly the wide draw that was to her detriment.
With a better draw here, and not much pace competition, she should much easier get to the front. Blinkers fitted should her her to be sharp out of the gate too. This track can ride in favour of those up with the pace, even over these longer trips, especially when the pace is slow, it’s nearly impossible to make up ground.
The yard is in poor form, but hit the crossbar a number of times, so hopefully a turnaround is just around the corner. A good jockey booking will help too.
This family tends to do quite well on the sand, hence off a career-lowest mark Brassavola looks more than capable of winning over this course and distance.
Great run by Henry Longfellow in the St James’s Palace Stakes to finish a gallant runner-up – what a fantastic race that was. Beaten, as close as it was, by a better horse on the day.
Rosallion couldn’t have been more impressive, though. He travelled, he quickened – that was impressive! A rematch would be intriguing: Rosallion had the better draw, Henry had to be used up a bit more in the early stages to get to a prominent position and was a bit keen as well.
However, I feel Henry Longfellow may have more scope for improvement if he moves up to 10 furlongs. You’d think the Eclipse could be an ideal race for him. But we know his stable has a prime candidate for that specific race already.
Possibly the Irish Champion Stakes? It’s going to be interesting to see where Ballydoyle routes Henry next. He should win a Group 1 this season.
No good fortune last night for my other two selections: Port And Starburd was incredibly well-backed, went off 2/1 fav… just to miss the break badly. Barnsnape Boy looks a lost hope, I’m afraid.
……..
4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Perhaps backing anything else than Auguste Rodin is hoping in vain. Because if he puts his best foot forward he’ll be too good for this field.
On the better ground he likes most, over this trip, he looks bound for a return to his best form. Certainly if he’s anywhere near the form he showed in the Irish Champion Stakes, the clear standout piece here, he’ll be tough to beat.
I reckon with a stable mate not drawn too far away, they’ll try to give him a nice lead to chase, somewhat similar to Leopardstown. He should strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance, a fine 2nd behind White Birch.
Nonetheless, given he’s shown be not the most trustworthy, he can be taken on. I’m not yet fully sold on Inspiral over 10 furlongs, despite her Santa Anita success. She acts on fast ground, though, that’s as much as we know. She could find herself too far back in this race, possibly, though.
The value in the race in my book is clearly the French filly Blue Rose Cen. From the #4 draw she’ll be nicely positioned, as she usually starts well, and she can lead or track the pace closely.
Her seasonal reappearance caught my eye. She found herself in a pocket from 2 furlongs out, and couldn’t get out until it was too late. She ran home well enough. One would think she wasn’t fully tuned up for that race.
Over the 1 mile 2(ish) furlongs trip her record is strong.: two Group 1 wins against her own sex last year, and an arguably unfortunate 4th in the Nassau Stakes.
Her Diane form, where she achieved a super 104 speed rating, gives her a cracking chance, if she could reproduce it. Obvious question mark is the ground. She never raced on anything this fast.
However, I don’t think her action is too pronounced, and certainly on pedigree she should love it. Her dam won a Grade 1 on proper firm ground in the US and Churchill is a Group 1 winner on good to firm. She’ll be fine, more likely than not.
Whether Blue Rose Cen is good enough against the boys at the top level remains to be seen. She has to be at her very best to have a chance. This field doesn’t look all that deep, though, if you take Auguste Rodin out, given my reservations about Inspiral.
She’ll be in a prime spot, most likely, as the field turns for home and then will be given every chance to run her race. At the prices, I’m prepared to run the risk.
10pts win – Blue Rose Cen @ 10/1
…….
6.50 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Strong Johnson seems to hit some form again and may have found an ideal race to score today. He had three solid runs since January, especially the last two since returning to turf off a small break.
At York in a hot Handicap he was still somewhat outclassed, although he showed lovely early speed. Last time at Ripon he showed good pace once again, and ran well for a long time over a trip that’s probably a stretch in that grade, especially if the pace is hot.
He dropped to a mark of 77 now, and is back over the minimum trip, down in class as well. The last time he ran in class 5 he won nicely at Redcar, and followed up a few weeks later off a 79 mark.
Those performances aren’t that long ago. He hit decent speed ratings regularly in 2023 and his last three performances suggest he’s ready to hit the same hights again.
Any juice in the ground won’t be an issue given his ground versatile record. The #1 draw is the only small negative. But I hope, given Little Melody is drawn in #3, that the pace will develop on his side, so he can follow her for a lead closely and Ryan Sexton can press the button 2f out.
10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 4/1
…….
7.50 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
I loved the recent run from Standbackandlook at Leicester. A significant improvement to his to prior Handicap runs. A change in tactics made all the difference.
He bumped into a well-handicapped winner, but also wasn’t helped by his wide draw, that saw him travelled wide for the first two furlongs and spending plenty of energy to get to the front.
He travelled well and gradually winded up the tempo, eventually finishing a clear second best on the day. He was possibly somewhat flattered given the sedate nature of the pace in the middle part of the race, one could argue, though.
But he showed a nice attitude running hard under pressure and looks better than his current 55 rating, now only in his 4th handicap start, with positive tactics.
His family produced plenty of winners, mostly over middle-distances, and the dam should offset the speedy sire, who also has got winners over 10 furlongs already.
The pace scenario looks potentially muddling today, and that will play into Standbackandlook’ hands. He can simply move forward, lead or sit second, nicely placed, and could have too much in hand off his current 55 rating.
Kiss And Run overcame a shaky start at Windsor last night to win with a bit of authority in the end. With a better break she would have won with plenty of hand in that race.
Kiss And Run goes the central route and is duly rewarded in the opener at @WindsorRaces, scoring with @ONaillers2010 on board.
Another winner for June. A rollercoaster, after a poor weekend; at least I back some winners again and keep it an open month to finish finally in green again.
…….
4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m
This looks a deep renewal. Multiple Classic winners in the field and a good pace looks assured to make it a proper race.
Notable Speech heads the market a short 5/4 favourite. You can see why: his impressive runaway victory at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas was visually and on the clock seriously arresting.
He clearly profited from a hot pace that day and not getting involved in the early pace battle too. Travelling toward the rear on the outside, he was well placed and made smooth progress to kick away from subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Rosallion.
Unbeaten in four starts now, of course he must have a prime chance today. There is no value in his price, though. Ascot is a different track, this race may pan out differently, and the ground is quite a bit faster as well. Notable Speech is the likeliest winner at this stage, but perhaps a bit short, given the depth of this field.
You would think Newmarket runner-up Rosallion can finish a bit closer this time. He got a little bit earlier involved, notably travelling strongly, at Newmarket, and finished a gallant second. He got his Classic win a few weeks later at the Curragh with an impressive finish to deny stable mate Haatam.
The slight knock on him is the fact he’s yet to run a speed rating 100+ in six career starts. He contested 5 Listed or Group races, though. Ample opportunity, actually.
Sometimes that’s down to circumstances, but I wonder whether we let visuals dictate how we perceive the chances of Rosallion.
French Guineas winner Metropolitan profited from a low draw and a perfect racing position where he got first run on Dancing Gemini, the eventual runner-up.
Fast ground is a concern, and I need to see him do this again before I believe he’s that good. He clearly enjoyed the run of the race at Longchamp.
Unquestionable was beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas by over six lengths. But he needed the run, according to his trainer. He looked like that, for sure.
A progressive juvenile, who landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he should come on for the run, love the fast ground and has a nice draw. He could outrun his price.
Alyanaabi ran a strong race in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Probably on the wrong side of the pace, he travelled without cover and closer than ideal to the hot pace. He did well to finish as close as he did, but was keen early on and needs to settle today, if any chance for a finish in the money.
Almaqam has won twice this year. He steps up in class in no uncertain terms. The quality could be there, for all he’s got plenty to find, not least on speed ratings, where a best 74 won’t cut it here today.
Progressive French raider Darlinghurst doesn’t look the right sort today, given fast ground and a mile, judged by his profile.
That leaves one horse to talk about: Henry Longfellow. No surprise, he’s one of the horses to follow this year.
His seasonal reappearance at Longchamp in the French 2000 Guineas was a total nightmare. Whether by design – tactical error – or necessity, he got shuffled back soon after the start, making his decent draw redundant. Halfway through he received a little check and fell even further back.
With only one horse behind him over 2 furlongs from home he had no chance to finish in the placings even. Not the clearest of passages either, nonetheless from 1.5 out he ran home nicely to suggest he has trained on.
The yard keeps the faith and repeatably said they still believe he’s a really good colt. And so do I. Today is a new day, different race, different track, different ground.
The better ground should be a clear advantage. He’s yet to race on ground this fast, but his dam won a Group 1 on fast ground, and sons of Dubawi usually don’t mind the type of underfoot conditions.
He should be a better 3-year-old than he was a juvenile. And he was a top-class juvenile. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs last season.
The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.
He achieved two 100+ speed ratings in those last two races in 2023. The sign of potential superstar, if he could train on. He has to improve today, of course, given the depth of this field.
I’m mostly concerned about the draw. It may invite Ryan Moore to settle for a position off the pace once again. However, I feel Henry Longfellow has stamina beyond this trip and would benefit from tracking the pace, no matter how hot it’s going to be.
Depending how the race pans out in the early stages, Moore may have to settle off the pace, no matter what he would want to do in an ideal world. But I hope he tries to get to a position no further back than midfield or 4-5 lengths off the lead, to be in with a shot to swing around the home bend and go for gold three furlongs out.
10pts win – Henry Longfellow @ 9/2
………
7.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f
Port And Starburd ran a huge race ten days ago over this course and distance in a slightly stronger race. She wasn’t helped early on by a rival who came swinging around the outside to complete for the lead and it seemed to set her alight.
She travelled strongly chasing the leader eventually, possibly was even ahead with half a furlong to go, but had to pay tribute and was beaten by two rivals with more restraint.
The filly is 0/5 but can race off the same mark. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go really close once again, especially as he may bounce out and get an easy lead this time.
She clearly improved for moving up in trip and has every chance on pedigree to stay this distance, perhaps even an additional half furlong, to stretch out to a mile.
Slight concern is the soft ground. This most recent run came on a fast surface; on the other hand, on debut, she finished a strong 4th on soft ground.
10pts win – Port And Starburd @ 9/2
……..
8.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Barnsnape Boy looks underestimated here if allowed to run on merit. Still a maiden, this filly caught the eye the last two times thanks to her aggressive front-running style.
Ten days ago she set a hot pace from a wide draw. She had the field on the stretch and was still in the mix entering the final furlong. She must be in good form and clearly on winnable mark in order to that.
She was way too fast in the first half of the race at Carlisle at the end of May where she led until the final furlong once again.
The fact she acts on fast ground is a positive as Brighton and fast ground over this trip lends itself to blast away and play “catch me if you can”. She’s another couple of pounds lower today, in a weak race where she could be able to dominate from her draw.
I like the fact that a stronger jockey is in the saddle. It’s also Trevor Whelan’s only ride today. The price drift is a worry, of course, and if she’s tried to be restraint we’ll know our fate right away. But if allowed to move to the front, she could be hard to peg back.
Kiss And Run has been performing with plenty of credit in better races than this one today over the last weeks. She drops down to 0-68 and could have too much speed and class in this field.
She was perhaps slightly disappointing on the bare form last time at Lingfield, but she got quite a big bump from two rivals as soon as the gates opened, before she moved forward and set hot fractions. She didn’t get home in those circumstances over 6 furlongs, plain and simple.
The drop to 5 furlongs will surely suit. She really impressed at Goodwood two runs back as she pushed pace going wide as part of a duo. She fought hard, showed great guts and attitude in a hot 0-80 Handicap to go down only by a head.
That was a career-best speed rating and on the basis of that she is well-handicapped today in this class. She has improved run by run this year and there’s perhaps a bit more to come.
Only worry for me is the fast ground. Her best form comes with some juice in the ground.
Albeseeingyer caught the eye last time at Beverley on her seasonal reappearance. She was keen to get on with things early on, before falling a little back to chase the pace in third, travelling powerfully into the home straight.
She faded in the final furlong, but was probably entitled to so, given a combination of “needed the run”, half a furlong too far in soft ground and the early exertions.
The race should put her right and she can race off the same mark today. Progressive the last two season, she may not have reached her ceiling. This looks a winnable contest as well.
She loves the 7 furlongs trip, is a course and distance winner and acts on this type of ground as well. I hope they ride her with positive tactics today in a race that lacks a clear pace setter possibly. She can do that and could be hard to beat in that case.
10pts win – Albeseeingyer @ 4/1
……..
5.40 Doncaster: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Showboated looks absolutely primed to win one of these low-grade sprint handicaps and could have found an ideal opportunity, for once. He threatened a couple of times this year but today could be his day.
He caught the eye in all four starts this year, for various reasons. Especially his two most recent performances gave me finally the impression he’s more than ready to win.
At Ayr he bumped into a seriously well-handicapped winner after chasing the pace without cover for most of the race and he showed a great attitude to battle hard to the line, only late denied a first career win.
He was certainly unfortunate last time at Redcar. He had to settle off the pace, given the race developed all on the far side, but he travelled strongly in the closing stages, just to be denied for space at a crucial stage. He finished well, but a clear passage a bit earlier and he’ll get much closer.
Having a strong jockey in the saddle should help too. He needs a bit of pushing and it can’t be a coincidence that Ayr was his career-best performance, also on speed ratings, when Conor Beasley was in the saddle.
Faye McManoman is a solid, no question, but Rowan Scott is an upgrade, strengths wise, in my unqualified view.
My concern is a tactical one. I hope they don’t settle too far off the pace, and instead move forward, to chase it, like at Ayr. Otherwise, he could easily find himself in a pocket once again where he gets out too late.
10pts win – Showboated @ 4/1
………
5.45 Thirsk: Class 2 Handicap, 5f
This is super competitive and probably I shouldn’t get involved, but I can’t leave Jer Batt unbacked at a big price with conditions bordering on perfect for the progressive gelding today.
I loves hi comeback run last month at Doncaster. He travelled strongly as part of a duo leading the field and only got tired in the final furlong to fade back for 4th.
He should improve for the run under his belt and comes here as a still somewhat unexposed sort. He improved nicely last season, and his form when soft appears in the going description is strong, since he moved to the UK.
An impressive winner at Musselburgh on good to soft, his subsequent Chester 2nd was an epic performance -not missed by the handicapper, mind.
One can forgive him the poor showing at Ascot on fast ground when last seen in 2023. He had a long break, and with that in mind his Doncaster performance is worthy of an upgrade.
Thirsk ground is currently good to soft and should stay that way with showers on their way. Any more rain will be better for Jer Batt, of course.
It’s worth giving Dawn Charger another chance, especially today in different circumstances than the last two times where she faded badly.
I don’t think soft ground is a must and her previous form tells as much. A drop to the minimum trip looks needed after she failed to get home over 6 furlongs the last couple of times, albeit showing good early speed.
That early speed could be ideally used today as she has a fine draw to attack the race from and the pace map shapes favourable for her. I thought the way she started quickly and with plenty of speed at Newbury last month in a hot race showed there’s still enough ability, also now as a 3-year-old.
Dawn Charger has to give some weight away but she may well be able to do so as the class act, potentially. This race looks easier than the last two Listed races she contested in as well.
She was impressive as a juvenile landing a Group 3 and getting close to land a Group 2 also. That also achieve her a 92 speed rating – the best in this field.
10pts win – Dawn Charger @ 9/1 (SM)
……..
3.15 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
I’m not sure what the reason is for Star Style drifting out rather dramatically this morning, from 4’s all the way out to getting 9s matched on Exchanges. She certainly is a price I love to back now, no matter what.
The risk aside that there may well be a reason for the price drift, the Richard Hannon trained filly looked ultra-impressive on debut at Newbury in April. She torn the field apart making all from the front setting a hot pace.
Rewarded with a superb 84 speed rating for that debut performance, suggested the daughter of Zoustar could be Group class winner in the making. The form didn’t work out well, but the way she did it, was what mattered more.
She went right to Newmarket for the Guineas but was always more likely not to stay a mile. And so it happened, as she raced too the front and set hot fractions, eventually fading to to finish a tired 15th of 16 runners.
Star Style drops back to 7 furlongs today, though she may even be quite effective over 6 furlongs. Her mark of 86 looks possibly underestimating her true potential. She certainly looked a much better horse on debut.
Saying that, there is pace competition here today. She won’t have it all her way from the front. Though, that may help her to settle, at least. One of the likely pace rivals is a NR as well. In addition to that, a good low draw will clearly help her to have a smooth way to the front.
The main concern I have is the ground. Fast ground is an unknown and her pedigree points suggests she may not be at her best when firm appears in the going description, also she seems to hit the ground quite hard, as far as my untrained eye can see.
At given prices I’m prepared to run the risk. If they afford her a too easy run from the front she could be hard to peg back, especially on fast ground at this track.
Another winner, thanks to Shahnaz! Finally something to cheer about: Two W’s from four selections (and Safari Dream still hurts, it should have been three) this week so far is a small sample size but maybe signals a return to some form of normality.
It was a strong- and smart ride by Jason Hart who had the mare always at the frontend of the race. She was seriously well-backed all day and the money was right, for once.
……
5.05 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
I was sweet on the filly Starproof at Bath a few weeks ago after her huge Ascot run. Unfortunately she didn’t seem to enjoy the track, expanded way too much energy early on and was a long way beaten in the end.
She deserves another chance and this more straightforward track today should suit better. Also that Bath form looks quite strong judged how the winner and especially runner-up have provided a significant boost.
Today could fall into her lap given there may not be too much of a pace and usually she can be quick from the gates and get to the front of the field.
The handicapper has given her a real chance dropping her another couple of pounds, down to her last winning mark, and judged on that Ascot performance, I feel she showed enough to suggest she’s clearly better than a 73 rated filly, as she was on the day.
It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot when she was coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, a close third in her group, and only 2 lengths beaten.
That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. I’m prepared to forgive her the Bath performance and given the current form for the yard and the eye-catching jockey booking, I’ll do expect to see a different Starproof today.
A winner is always nice, especially coming off THAT Saturday… but it could – maybe should have been – two winners.
Spring Is Sprung made all to win nicely at Pontefract. Safari Dream only beaten in the dying strides after going off way too fast.
Penalty Shootout was supremely well-backed but faded like the majority of horses I back these days. Probably did too much too soon and didn’t get home.
Spring Is Sprung makes all under Archie Young in our opener, the Happy Birthday Alexia "Southport" Chesters Apprentice Handicap, in a latest success for the in-form @ptmidgley stable pic.twitter.com/ZO41bRxkEf
Shahnaz could enjoy a perfect race, up with the pace in a race where not too many may want to make it a hot race for the lead. The mare clearly is returning in some fine form, as evidenced by her recent reappearance over this course and distance.
She loves it here: 2 wins from 4 runs, and the most recent one highly encouraging when fifth, less than four lengths beaten.
She was a bit sluggish out of the gates but quickly moved forward to lead, travelling nicely on the bridle. She showed a lovely attitude once under pressure and kept going before eventually eased in the final furlong.
The run should put her spot on for today. An additional pound off the mark is a bonus. She still ran some good speed ratings last season, two times 55+ in fact, and if she strips fitter today, there’s no reason not to believe she’s still that good.
A fine low draw will help to keep the effort to a minimum at the beginning, as long as she starts quickly. This is also a weaker contest than three weeks ago. There’s some money coming all morning for her, no surprise (from 10’ss as low as 4/1 now, but Exchanges still give 6.4-8 for a proper stake).
I’m still a bit in a state of shock after Saturday, 0/6… it’s going from bad to worse. I guess the positive is: three decent runs, and the majority were prices you can’t expect to go in any day.
But at some point a proper upswing should be on the cards now…?
……
7.40 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Safari Dream ran well in his last three races, although he was outclassed, ultimately, in his most recent start at Goodwood, but at least showed once again a fine attitude to finish the race.
He caught the eye the two times prior, in much more obvious fashion. In early May at Salisbury he couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground, yet travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.
At Windsor on before that, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and the most recent performance doesn’t put me off.
He drops down to class 5 again. Much easier, also with the added support from the handicapper, who dropped Safari Dream to 70, with excellent 5lb claiming apprentice Oliver Searle on board.
The only danger is that if he doesn’t get off to a quick start, he may find himself locked in against the inside rail.
10pts win – Safari Dream @ 9/2
……
6.30 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Spring Is Sprung should have a cracking chance from his low draw and his blistering early speed to potentially dominate, or at least get it easier in the early stages of the races than others.
His turf record doesn’t read too well, but he ran with plenty of credit the last two times, following on from a long break and wind operation.
Especially last time out at Catterick where he got off to a great start, although pestered throughout, set a hot enough pace and only got beaten in the final furlong.
Today is formally a slightly easier race, and another 2lb off his mark can only help. He could be quite well-handicapped now, given last summer he ran well off 78 and 80 in hot handicaps and he has multiple 70+ speed ratings on his CV.
10pts win – Spring Is Sprung @ 7/2
……..
8.10 Windsor: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
I loved the handicap debut from Penalty Shootout a few weeks ago. It was a gigantic step forward from anything the 3-year-old gelding showed in three maiden races.
He was soon up with the pace, travelling seriously well into the home straight, still on the bridle 3 furlongs out and only tiredness seemed to get the better off him late.
If he can improve from that run, he’ll must have serious chance today. Still unexposed, a mark of 60 may underestimate him, as he ran already a fine 55 speed ratings the last time.
He was quite well backed that day too, and the same seems to be the case today. Intriguing to see Oisin Murphy retaining the ride. The pedigree is an intriguing one too, as a son of Bungle Inthejungle the 10f trip doesn’t seem a natural fit.
But I believe if was tiredness, not stamina, that saw him fade at Nottingham. Also the dam is a significant stamina influence looking at the family.
Horseracing - International . COM 