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Betting

Tuesday Selections: 6th June 2023

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Stay Smart did well to win at Ayr as he held on by a head. He was all out after setting a seriously hot pace and showed great attitude to get home at 3/1 SP.

Rule 4 hurt me here, though. Yet, I was relived. A winner, and any losses minimized for the day, no matter what.

Cuban Breeze was the one I fancied most to provide a second winner. He finished a gallant second but didn’t have enough early speed to get to the lead which went Aberama Gold’s way who went wire to to wire, instead. Perhaps I was too optimistic about Cuban Breeze’s early pace against another seriously fast starter.

Late Arrival never stood a chance from his draw and perhaps I should have seen that coming. I glanced too quickly over this major negative. Hopefully he can come good the next time.

Folk Star finished 3rd but never looked like winning. She didn’t get a run at a crucial stage and didn’t have the change of gear from off the pace. My Mate Mike was withdrawn after he broke through the gate.

……

3.30 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Is Makeen too obvious to be true? Only the blind could have missed the hugely eyecatching performance at Newmarket last month.

He traveled strongly behind a wall of horses for much of the race. Waited for room until very late when switched to the inside and ran on easily for third with the fastest final furlong split.

It was a near career-best effort without a clear run. What is clear: the gelding is in peak form. In saying that, he wouldn’t be obviously well-handicapped on ratings.

But it seems clear that 7 furlongs on fast ground could be an ideal scenario for him. He didn’t have many chances of this sort, yet. Is there some improvement left in these conditions? Possibly.

In any case, he should be not left on a mark off 80 after that last run. The 3lb claim of Ryan Sexton is the cherry on the cake in a race where there isn’t too much to fear in terms of rivals to beat, even though he moves up in to 0-85.

10pts win Makeen @ 7/2

……

5.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Regal Glory returns to what may well be her optimum trip and track and looks ready to strike thanks to a lowered mark and a good draw to find a handy position in the field.

The filly caught numerous times the eye in the last few weeks and months. She achieved an excellent 57 speed rating off a 51 mark in November over this CD. She followed up with a couple of strong efforts, especially the February 3rd place here once again caught my eye.

Her subsequent runs were better than the bare form, but it’s her latest run over 6f here at Lingfield only five days ago that may rate as her strongest yet.

From a wide draw she travelled in rear, made strong progress on the wide outside, turned wide and yet finished strongly.

She drops to a 50 OR now – she won off the same mark last November over this course and distance – has the #4 draw to attack the race from, over 7 furlongs at Lingfield. Huge chance to add a second CD success to her name.

10pts win – Regal Glory @ 5/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 5th June 2023

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Gutsy Eponina at Nottingham. She made all and kept going and going to win well (5/1 SP). After drawing a blank on Saturday this was needed. Unfortunately there was no additional winner to be added on Sunday.

Greatgadian was beaten by the draw. No chance from his position as he settled at the back of the field and had to quicken from well off the pace in a sprint finish. A great effort to finish 3rd, though.

Continuous was a major disappointment in the Prix Du Jockey Club. He didn’t have any excuses, though. He was in a good position, got there easily and simply wasn’t good enough on the day.

A good first June week. Three winners. Too good to be true? On to Monday… I’m always am nervous when having so many bets in a single day as on this Monday. But they were all significant eyecatchers and appear overpriced.

If one goes in all is well, happy days. If they all get beaten, a realistic prospect, it’s getting ugly quickly. Joy and despair are can be separated by inches in this game.

…..

4.00 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Hail Sezer was a huge eyecatcher last time out and hasn’t been too harshly penalised for a nose beaten 2nd place. He’s clearly in fine form and should run a huge race.

At prices I must go with Late Arrival, though, who caught the eye the last time at Pontefract, as he followed on from a hugely encouraging seasonal reappearance at Haydock.

Ten days ago at Pontefract over 5 furlongs he had a quick start, tracked the pace but came under pressure from over 2f out and seemed to go backwards before coming back and staying well to the line.

Another strong performance and form behind a very strong winner. He’s better over 6 furlongs, though, especially on fast ground.

Therefore moving back up in trip, while dropping into an easier grade, he’s dangerous after having been eased another pound. He ran to 70 and 71 speed ratings last season and looks in similar form, clearly ready for another big performance off 69.

10pts win – Late Arrival 15/2

…………

4.15 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Stay Smart ran a huge race on Saturday at Musselburgh. He was bumped at the start quite badly, and had to play catch-up as a consequence. He travelled wide on the outside where he made tremendous progress to challenge the leader, but understandably tired in the final furlong to fall back.

He confirmed the promise shown over this course and distance last month when he raced from the front and also achieved a good speed rating, the best in over 1.5 years. That performance warranted an upgrade too, in my book:

He moved quickly forward and led the field at a good pace. He travelled well and found plenty for pressure from 2f out. Ultimately he was only beaten inside the final furlong by two ridden with more restraint.

Stay Smart had a tough time since losing his form in early 2022. He changed yards, tumbled down the weights and has been gelded and had a wind operation. He appears to be in excellent shape now, though, and looks the one to beat with a clear run.

10pts win – Stay Smart @ 7/2

…..

4.30 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Obviously Lady Rascal is of interest as she moves up in trip. 1m 4f will suit her really well. She got off the mark in fine style over ten furlongs recently after a strong handicap debut.

She is one of my Handicappers to follow this year, but so is Folk Star. Lady Rascal could be well-handicapped today, yet on prices Folk Star makes plenty of appeal (for the moment, money is coming already) as she makes her handicap debut and moves up right away to the correct trip for her.

She had two lovely runs of educational matter as a juvenile where she looked much better than the bare results. She was never asked a question, yet finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth.

Her seasonal reappearance in April over a mile in deep ground can be safely ignored form wise. The 1m trip, also possibly ground was not right and it counted simply as a pipe opener. With that she qualified for a mark off 64 and that could underestimate her as she moves up significantly in trip.

Folk Star is a May foal and has plenty of scope to improve, especially as she moves up in distance. She’s beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time as well.

Le Have offspring improves with age too. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Not sure whether the track and fast ground will suit, but let’s find out.

10pts win – Folk Star @ 4/1

……..

5.45 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Big R is the one to beat. Most likely I wasn’t the only one who wanted to hit something really hard after he finished a desperately unlucky second last Saturday.

He’s only 1lb higher and has a massive shout. Again, at given prices, it’s another eyecatcher I’ll side with, though.

My Mate Mike moved quickly forward to lead at Salisbury when last seen as he dropped down to 6 furlongs. He showed solid early speed and clearly did too much in the first half of the race. I thought he did really well to hold on for third.

That was a strong race and form for the level of race. There were multiple lto winners and horses in strong form in the field.

As he gets another chance over 6 furlongs here having been dropped 1lb as well I feel this lightly raced gelding could be underestimated.

10pts win – My Mate Mike @ 9/1

…….

7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Hot and competitive race with a solid pace certain. You can make a case for many, though, off 81 Cuban Breeze appears tremendously well-handicapped, especially as she ran pretty well when last see at Windsor.

She made too much there from the front in deep conditions but confirmed some of the positive signs he showed in most of her more recent runs.

She drops down to class 4 and lost another 2lb, with that she 4lb lower than her last winning mark, albeit that came on turf. Cuban Breeze is as good on the All-Weather, though.

She enjoys this course and distance, although perhaps 6 furlongs is the absolute maximum of her stamina. That’s a worry in a fast race here.

On the other hand, I feel from her #3 draw, despite plenty of potential pace pressure, her early speed could see her establish a lead and she could go all the way then.

10pts win – Cuban Breeze @ 15/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 1st June 2023

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Imperial Khan won his race in fine style at Beverley on Wednesday. A no-nonsense ride by Laura Coughlin this time gave the gelding a very first career win.

Soul Seeker, in contrast, emptied quickly and was pretty disappointing, he was also a drifter in the betting beforehand. And yet, if you would have put a gun to my head, he’d have been my NAP today.

No complaints: it was a positive ending to May, no matter what.

170pts profit, 8 winners, 32% ROI.

Third green months in a row. After a shaky start to the 2023 the P/L sheet shows a healthy profit: 470pts.

I changed tack slightly in May: going more aggressively after selections, backing in the work done through the eyecatchers and showing a little less restraint in always waiting for the absolute perfect conditions for the horses I want to back.

53 selections later and a green months means that has worked. Only on the surface, though. Ultimately, I relied on a big price to come in to save the day… or the month, so to speak.

Finding the right balance will decide over success and failure for the rest of the year. I have to reign it in a little bit, without going back to that ultra-conservative approach of the past, which worked, but didn’t capitalise on all the effort that goes into the eyecatchers in first place.

As always it’s a constant process of optimisation. Shaping and re-shaping the process. Learning from the experience of others and being open to new ideas.

The details on all selections can be found as always in the Betting P&L.

…….

3.12 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Victors Dream was somewhat unfortunate a week ago at Wolverhampton and should be able to make amends off a similar mark here.

That day he had to overcome the widest draw and settled in rear, both a disadvantage in that race. He travelled strongly into the home straight, though had too much to do against front-running winner and also had give ground away all the time.

He finished much the best and achieved a strong 58 speed rating on what was his handicap debut. It was a significant improvement on everything he had done in three starts prior.

In any case, the gelding looks clearly ready to win off a 60 mark, especially with a low draw to attack the race from as he also drops into a slightly easier race.

10pts win – Victors Dream @ 3/1

……….

5.00 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

How often can a horse catch the eye before you have to conclude he’s just not a genuine type? Let’s find out because Flying Secret is one of those notorious horses that attracts the comment “Eyecatcher” frequently.

It’s fair to say it was another eye-catching run on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month. He clearly wasn’t there to win but showed plenty enough to suggest he’s in shape.

The only surprise was see him run over 7 furlongs there. It’s a trip I believe is going to prove his optimum when the handbrake is off. He tried a number of times over 6 furlongs last season, when he was sometimes caught out for speed, other times bumped into well-handicapped rivals.

Whether he’s here to try remains to be seen. The Yard has a poor spell and Charles Bishop even gets odds-on shots beaten at the moment.

But if he’s here to win then I think off 71 on fast ground in class 5 over 7f he’s at least a solid win ahead of the handicapper. This is easier than most races he ran so well in over the last twelve month also.

10pts win – Flying Secret @ 11/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #3

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

Thaki
08/05/23 – 8.45 Newcastle:

Drawn away from the pace, awkward start, trailed and had a wall of horses to pass over two furlongs out. Picked his way through to field as he quickened nicely, before getting quite tired in the final furlong.

Ran well prior at Ayr as well in a good race where the winner was well-handicapped. Not the best starter. Won off 67 on the All-Weather and a neck beaten off 65 back in March. Ran well nto in hot class 4 race as well, but possibly not quite up to that level.

Down to 63 on a good mark. Has scope on turf, especially on decent ground placed 4 of 6 and may be underestimated there without a W on turf yet, though.

Race Replay

Ticket To Alaska
08/05/23 – 5.20 Southwell:

Crossed over quickly from a wide draw to lead, although always pestered and pressured. Travelled well but ultimately beaten by a well-handicapped winner from off the pace.

Two good runs since return from a break. Showed promise as a juvenile, ran to 63 speed rating. Doubtful that he stays beyond 7 furlongs. Full-brother did his best work over 6f and won over the minimum trip as well.

Possibly scope for some improvement if he drops in trip, on fast ground on turf. In other circumstances probably found his ceiling.

Race Replay

Basholo
08/05/23 – 2.25 Ayr:

Led the field on far side. Was going well until 2f out, under pressure fought gamely all the way to the line, just tired in the closing stages.

Down to career-lowest mark. Bit unlucky lto. In excellent form. Poor record 1/20. Probably best over 5f, but 6f on fast ground not impossible.

Didn’t get home over 6f at stiff Hamilton when seen next time after going hard following a hot pace.

Race Replay

Winforglory
13/05/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Tracked hot early pace. Did way too much too soon and also quite keen. Impressive how he was still able to kick on and challenge for the win, less than two lengths beaten in 3rd eventually.

Bit unfortunate lto at Chelmsford. Strong run there too. Ran 75 speed rating here, which was also a hot race for the grade. May not stay a mile, but looks clearly capable to win off current mark and should be some pounds better.

Race Replay

Swiss Pride
13/05/23 – 4.10 Lingfield:

Settled off the pace, which was a disadvantage. Had loads to do 3f out and finished wide. Came home much the strongest, the only one who ran sub 12s the final furlong.

Must be in good form now. Down to sexy mark. Would be really interesting on fast turf as he may be underestimated there due to his record. However he runs well in those conditions, now 11lb lower than when last seen on turf.

Race Replay

Malham Tarn Cove
13/05/23 – 6.40 Leicester:

Travelled quite well for a long time. Solid progress from 2f out, challenged the long-term leader. Got pretty tired in the final furlong.

Probably strong form and run due to the winner and second. Left on the same mark. Interesting on better ground. Dam did all her best work on soft but sire was tp-class on fast. He doesn’t seem to have a high knee action.

If the ground can bring out improvement he’ll be well-handicapped. Wouldn’t rule out a drop in trip either.

Race Replay

Azure Angel
15/05/23 – 7.05 Windsor:

Tracked the honest pace. Travelled strongly and good progress to hit the front over one furlong out. Tired in the closing stages.

Comeback run. Probably needed it. Also may prefer better ground. Very impressive when last seen as a juvenile. Clocked strong speed rating. 6f may be her optimum.

Race Replay

Imperial Khan
15/05/23 – 2.50 Catterick:

Tracked the pace throughout. Was going well and looked like coming with a big challenge from 2f out. Jockey seemed to keep waiting and waiting before asking for all, riding hands and heels. Suddenly it was too late as things became really tight in the final furlong and the horse was squeezed out.

With a clear run would have gone seriously close. Has been dropped 2lb in the meantime. Down to a career-lowest and obvious interest the next time.

Race Replay

John Kirkup
15/05/23 – 4.20 Catterick:

Tracked leaders against the inside rail where it became a bit tight around the bend which impeded him somewhat. Kept up to his work but didn’t find a gap to go through.

Third run off a break. Clearly in form. Down to excellent mark. Ran fine speed ratings last autumn. 5f with cut in the ground ideal, but stays 6f and acts on better ground as well.

Ran well nto in the meantime but conditions not totally to suit and bumped into a well-handicapped winner.

Race Replay

The Muffin Man
16/05/23 – 6.00 Wetherby:

Not the sharpest at the start from a wide draw, a bit impeded soon after. Outpaced early on, travelled well of the pace. Good progress in the home straight although not the clearest run until late.

Clearly needs to move up to 1m as pedigree suggests as well. Ran twice the trip before and was unfortunate. Still lightly raced.

Race Replay

Golden Rainbow
16/05/23 – 7.30 Wetherby:

Tracked the pace closely in second place. Challenged leader from over 2f out and possibly ahead at final furlong marker. Horses from further back got the better of him eventually. Strong run and probably strong form.

Had wind operation prior. Down to good 63 mark and can win in possibly slightly less competitive race. Better over 5f and may prefer AW surface but didn’t have too many opportunity over the minimum trip on fast ground, which bay be ideal.

Race Replay

Hail Sezer
16/05/23 – 7.30 Wetherby:

Travelled notably well in midfield. Strong progress in the home straight but was stuck behind horses in front of him. Switched to the inside over 1f out and ran on well.

Can’t be too harshly assessed by the handicapper for this. Not unexposed but won two of his last four and arguably unlucky here in strong race. Clearly able to win off 71, ideally 6f on fast ground.

Race Replay

Bluebell Time
16/05/23 – 2.40 Chepstow:

Tracked the leader closely and eventually made strong move from over 2f out to grab the lead. Only beaten late by horses from further back and more ridden toward the centre/stands’ side.

Strong run and probably good form. Down another 2lb since then. Well-handicapped over the minimum trip now on anything not fast; bonus a bit of cut in the ground.

Race Replay

Makeen
18/05/23 – 6.55 Newmarket:

Traveled strongly behind a wall of horses for much of the race. Waited for room until very late when switched to the inside and ran on easily for third.

Near career-best effort without a clear run. Clearly in peak form. Otherwise not obviously well-handicapped. But interesting if turned out within the next two weeks, ideally on fast ground.

Probably 7f ideal and is then pretty ground independent, but clearly stays a mile too, especially on fast ground if the pace isn’t all out. If he doesn’t return soon under ideal conditions soon, one to keep in mind to see if he can drop a couple of pounds and wait for the money to arrive.

Race Replay

My Mate Mike
18/05/23 – 3.10 Salisbury:

Moved quickly forward to lead, setting a hot pace. Clearly did too much in the first half of the race. Did well to hold on for third.

Strong race and form. Multiple lto winners and horses in strong form in the field. has been given an opportunity by the handicapper as dropped 1lb subsequently. Lightly raced and deserves a chance over 6f.

Race Replay

Red Allure
19/05/23 – 6.15 Hamilton:

Move forward from the outside draw to push the pace. Was there until very late in the day.

Perhaps slightly flattered by the way the race developed but it wasn’t an advantage on the day to go from the low gates. Clear return to form. Dropped a pound for this. Chance given over minimum trip and all ground.

Race Replay

Yellow Lion
20/05/23 – 2.05 Newmarket:

Bit keen early on, travelled strongly throughout but without cover on the outside. Good progress from 3f out to just hit the front over one furlong from home. Tired rapidly.

Handicap debut. Probably needs drop to 6f. Didn’t have many chances on decent ground yet which may be ideal for him.

Race Replay

Betting

Thursday Selections: 25th May 2023

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2.40 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Birdie Bowers finally gets his conditions and he should be capable of much better than the price suggest. On turf he clearly needs better ground to be seen to best effect, and he gets it here.

The majority of his last runs were quite good and noteworthy, especially those on turf in softish conditions, including this course and distance, when he also ran a solid speed rating.

He confirmed his well-being with a good effort in competitive Handicap at Newcastle where 6f and the stiff finish were stretching him too much after going a strong pace as well.

He continues to fall in the ratings, can race now off 2lb lower than his last winning mark, when he won at Beverley on decent ground last August off 51.

10pts win – Birdie Bowers @ 12/1

…….

3.40 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Ghost Lights is obvious interest as one of my eyecatchers. However, I feel he is better over 7 furlongs and is short enough a price to take on, with that in mind.

Azaim is another one who caught the eye – last time out at Musselburgh: after a sluggish first furlong he pushed forward to lead at a seriously fast pace, certainly in the first half of the race, before he fell away rapidly from over 2f out.

This was also a hot race with first and second very well-handicapped, hence the performance warrants an upgrade.

He doesn’t stay 7 furlongs, and neither did he have a chance to get home in the majority of his recent races. Still lightly enough raced, he’s an intriguing runner as he drops down to 6f.

10pts win – Azaim @ 9/1

…….

4.10 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap 6f

I’m interested in Captain Kirkup after his recent run but probably these aren’t his ideal conditions, so worth to wait for another day. However Lezardrieux showed great form the last two runs and has a strong chance here.

On his penultimate run at Newcastle he went really hard from the front, set a strong pace and travelled strongly. he was challenged from 2f out but remained in front until fading late.

It was a strong race with a good speed rating and it was noteworthy that he was able to follow up next time at Catterick with another strong run .

He was rather unfortunate as it was quite tight around the first bend and he was repeatedly short of room in the home straight, though.

This is a hot enough contest, but he’s got a good draw and is clearly in excellent form, ready to win.

10pts win – Lezardrieux @ 11/2

…….

7.52 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Love Destiny has been running better in recent weeks than the bare form would tell. He caught the eye at Kempton in March the way he stayed on after being seemingly beaten and I thought he travelled seriously well last time over this CD before going backwards.

He dropped dramatically in the weights and finds himself in a race today that could be set up perfectly for him. There isn’t much pace to compete with, so Atzeni could move quickly forward to try and steel it.

With first-time blinkers applied over Love Destiny’s preferred course and distance – he’s two from three here – he looks seriously overpriced.

10pts win – Love Destiny @ 11/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 23rd May 2023

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2.23 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 5.5f

I can easily rule out the vast majority of this field on price or conditions. But I do end up with my two eyecatchers left – Master Sully and I’m Mable – and struggle to develop any preference.

Both geldings are completely wrong prices here in my view and I feel they both have better chances to win the race than their prices would tell. Hence this calls for the rare measure that I split my stake.

Both lads have their quirks, and that’s the reason why they find themselves in this poor 0-55 contest. I’m Mable is top-rated, and clearly better than this grade, if on a going day.

He drops in grade here, and has shown significant improvement in his latest runs, suggesting he’s in strong form and ready for a big run.

I loved his latest Lingfield effort when he travelled strongly on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. He cam home strongly.

He was somewhat unfortunate on his penultimate run as well. He can make a mess at the gate, though. And 5.5f in combination with rattling fast ground is a bit of a question mark given his best turf form comes over 5f on soft. But he has shown to handle these conditions, and I can see him finish strongly from off the pace.

Master Sully is not a talented individual but he’s a bit better than a 46 rating. He won a Conditions Stakes in January and followed up with a number of solid efforts in defeat.

His last three runs all caught the eye for numerous reasons, suggesting he is in good form. A switch to turf may do the trick. He’s still rather lightly raced on turf, but ran pretty well on three occasions last season from 5-6f on a variety of ground conditions.

His best turf effort cam on fast ground and he was a bit unlucky over this CD last September. He can have his own issues at the gate, but if gets away alright I reckon he should be a solid victory ahead of his turf mark right now.

5pts win – Master Sully @ 9/1
5pts win – I’m Mable @ 8/1

……..

3.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Mudlahhim  sets high enough standard for this grade after latest impressive 3rd place effort over this same course and distance, less than two weeks ago.

If he has recovered from that huge performance, he’s certain to go close as he ran to an excellent 59 speed rating in line with his current mark.

He moved quickly forward to establish a solid lead and set a decent pace. I quite liked that he was able to kick on from halfway through the race, before gradually tiering from 2f out, beaten by a well-handicapped winner in the closing stages.

He must be in strong form, as evidence a number of times prior in this sort of grade. He didn’t land a blow in a class 5 at Southwell, but also his 3rd place three runs back over 8.5f rates a strong performance.

He shouldn’t face too much pace pressure here. If they allow him to establish a soft lead he’d be hard to get back to.

10pts win – Mudlahhim @ 11/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 15th May 2023

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4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Bobby Joe Leg appears to be a solid favourite given he ran seriously well over 7f on the All-Weather the last two times, having achieved strong speed ratings as well.

He’s clearly handicapped to win, yet seems to find way to get beaten. He may bump into another even better handicapped rival once again today.

Nefarious caught my eye at Lingfield in March for the first time. That day he clearly wasn’t in it to win it, received an uneconomical ride, but showed glimmers of ability when quickening under a light enough ride from 3f out to the final furlong post.

Back up in trip the next two times, he ran much better than the bare form would suggest; first at Kempton and subsequently at Lingfield, outrunning big odds.

Having dropped to a career-lowest 58 mark, he looks dangerous if he could move forward from his #6 draw in a highly winnable race with not too much pace on.

Other than the aforementioned favourite, there isn’t much depth in this field.

Hollie Doyle is booked, which should be a bonus. Perhaps that’s the sign he’s here to run on merit. It looks a good opportunity to score, if allowed to run with the handbrake off.

10pts win – Nefarious @ 5/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2023: #2

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing. Find all previous lists here.

Serious Look
25/04/23 – 4.45 Epsom:

Moved forward quickly to lead travelling wide. Was going strongly approaching the home straight, though gradually tired and fell away in the last two furlongs.

Paid for early exertions, doing too much in deep ground, as those ahead of him in the end were ridden with more restraint.

Travelles well. May found 9f in heavy ground beyond his stamina. A mile in soft ground should be fine, though, so is 7f with plenty of cut in the ground. He seems to hit the ground quite hard.

Race Replay

I’m Mable
26/04/23 – 7.55 Lingfield:

Settled in rear of the field. Travelled strongly, on the bridle as he approached the home straight but went widest and lost ground. Really strong finish. Good form.

Unlucky lto when also a strong run, confirmed here that he’s absolutely ready to strike. Can make a mess at the gate, though.

Would be most intrigued over 5f on turf again. Ran good speed ratings last season, and another 2lb down now, most likely seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

Spanish Angel
26/04/23 – 1.50 Catterick:

Widest draw was probably a disadvantage as was travelling on the stands’ side. Made strong progress from 3f out against stands’ rail and finished best of that group.

Huge run in circumstances, confirmed strong AW form, also was a bit unlucky lto. Looks on a possibly lenient turf mark in the right conditions, compared to AW as he’s not 10lb worse judged on speed ratings.

He prefers better ground to be seen to best effect. Didn’t enjoyed these conditions this season yet. Does stay 6f but probably best over shorter.

Race Replay

Soul Seeker
27/04/23 – 2.20 Beverley:

Moved quickly forward and crossed over the the far rail. Led the field, but pressured all the way. battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.

Softish ground far from ideal. He’s a different horse on better ground, ideally fast. Ran twice to 78 speed rating off a 77 mark last summer.

Down to a super mark now and after two solid runs under his belt this year, should be a big runner in the right conditions soon.

Race Replay

Lord Rapscallion
27/04/23 – 6.15 Chelmsford:

Grabbed the lead, largely uncontested, was going well entering the home straight. Eventually beaten by those from off the pace. Decent run.

Can ignore next time in class 2. Tricky sort but clearly still with an appetite for the game. Slowly drops to fair mark again. Won off 80 back in December.

Ran twice to speed rating 84+ last year on turf over 7 furlongs. With decent ground should be interesting, especially if he could dominate.

Race Replay

Platinum Girl
28/04/23 – 5.35 Doncaster:

Travelled supremely well from the front and had entire field well on the stretch from 3f out. Tired badly in the final furlong and eventually reeled in by two from off the pace.

Huge seasonal reappearance. Was placed off similar mark last year. Quite experienced and unlikely to have much scope. May find it tough to back up this effort if turned out quickly.

Race Replay

Lotus Rose
29/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Superb front-running effort. Kicked on from over 2f out and looked the winner until swamped late in the day. Ran to 69 speed rating here, strong form.

Ran multiple times to mid-60 speed ratings and higher. Improved nicely from seasonal debut. Probably best over minimum trip with cut in the ground but 6f on better ground no issue either. Versatile.

Race Replay

Glorious Rio
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Badly bumped and squeezed out of the gate by two rivals, trailed as a consequence. Wall of horses in front and had to switch wide to the far side, giving ground and momentum away. Came through well from over 1f out.

Strong run in circumstances. Ran with credit on the All-Weather this year before. Comes down to solid mark. Not tons in hand but ran to 68, 69 and 71 speed ratings since August last year.

Any additional help from the handicapper will bue valuable. He’s better over the minimum trip, and prefers decent ground. Not disgraced at Newcastle on Tuesday off 69.

Race Replay

Dream Together
29/04/23 – 2.05 Haydock:

Travelled quite well on stands’ side, which was potentially not ideal being high drawn in this race, as was away from where the pace developed. Travelled strongly to 2f out before effort petered out.

Reportedly made a respiratory noise afterwards, that may explain the tame finish, although he wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed in any way.

Small risk whether all is fine with him, but in any case another 2lb down and well-handicapped now. Ran solid on the All-Weather before, somewhat unfortunate. Achieved speed ratings last season that will give him a huge chance wherever he goes, if healthy.

Race Replay

Forward Flight
30/04/23 – 3.35 Wetherby:

Moved forward from #9 draw to closely follow the pace. Pressed the leader from 3f out and couple of lengths ahead before swamped. Accepted challenge and stuck strongly to the task to hold on for 2nd place.

Strong run and speed rating only 2lb shy of current mark, which was left untouched. Given great opportunity if he can find a handicap over a mile in proper soft ground as still somewhat unexposed in these conditions which seemingly bring out the best in him.

Can ignore hurdle and All-Weather form; he looks potentially well-handicapped off 70 in the right conditions.

Race Replay

Belsito
30/04/23 – 3.45 Musselburgh:

Fell out of the gate. Overcame his highly awkward start quickly, as moved forward rapidly to lead after the first furlong even. Did way too much to get there but only fell away from from over a furlong out.

Strong run in circumstances and clearly better than result. Won when last seen in 2022. Full-brother to Group 3 winning miler. Should have no issues going up in trip.

Opening mark no giveaway, but could have a couple of pounds ahead if he moves up to 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Eponina
01/05/23 – 4.03 Beverley:

Grabbed the lead, although closely followed all the time. Keen in the first half of the race. Under severe pressure entering the home straight. Gutsy, still fought back when beaten over 1f out.

Clearly in good form. Ran well last two times as well. If ground stays soft drop to 7f possibly ideal. Chester entry on Wednesday interesting.

Closely enough rated to more recent best speed ratings, but any help from handicapper will see her having something in hand in the right race.

Race Replay

Master Sully
01/05/23 – 3.33 Bath:

First bumped, then squeezed out soon after the start. Stumbled after the first furlong. Got going again but ultimately never stood a chance. Better than this as he caught the eye at Lingfield before as well when turning very wide but finished well enough.

Not much scope but chance off 47, especially on turf, 5f on decent ground. Some strong performances last year, especially when out of the handicap off 51 at Ffos Las.

Ran twice to 48 speed rating, latest in January. Looks like he’s in the same sort of form as his best from 2022, hence should have a few pounds ahead now.

Race Replay

Sir Titan
02/05/23 – 1.50 Brighton:

Bounced out of the gate from wide draw to grab the lead and set strong gallop. Started to tire from 3 furlongs out, though ran solid to the line.

Not disgraced the last two. Veteran who still enjoys the game. Simply not the old force any more and will benefit from further drop in the ratings and down into class 6.

Race Replay

Mount Mogan
03/05/23 – 6.10 Brighton:

Led, although closely tracked. Still ahead at the final furlong marker, but heavily under pressure. Only faded from half a furlong out. Probably solid form, winner possibly still ahead of his mark.

Comes down to good mark. Ran well on the All-Weather (unlucky 03/03) against good opposition. Will benefit from drop to class 6 again and could be dangerous now, over 6-7f.

Possibly a bit better on the sand, but intriguing on turf off 63 if the ground decent, especially over 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Hardy Angel
03/05/23 – 4.00 Pontefract:

Overcame widest draw quickly to dispute lead all the way while travelling wide, giving ground away. Hit the front just about with 1.5f to go before getting swallowed for good by two ridden with more restraint. Saddle slipped late, too.

Lightly raced. May enjoy better ground. Good run and interesting off current mark over 6f on decent ground, probably does also enjoy galloping track more than tight ones.

Race Replay

Fiscal Policy
03/05/23 – 9.00 Kempton:

Seriously keen throughout the race, but strongly travelling into the home straight. Tremendous visual impression when let go as he moved forward stylishly from 2.5f out to hit the front in an instant. Markedly tired from over 1f out and caught late.

Often keen over 6f. Ran well number of times before. Achieved 62 speed rating here, hence likely to be ahead of mark, and should be if not too harshly treated by the handicapper after this. Has 5f entries next week. Intriguing over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Shabaaby
04/05/23 – 2.00 Ayr:

Awkward start. In rear, going okay until outpaced from 2f out. Kept going strongly to the line and finished best of all. Ran to strong 61 speed rating, 3lb below current mark.

Fast conditions over the minimum trip not ideal. Notably how well he ran. Clearly ready in right conditions. Prefers cut in the ground and stays 6f.

Ran to 68 speed rating at Dundalk in January. Changed yards. Tricky customer. Worth to wait for the right conditions. Perhaps ran too good to be dropped another pound our two here, though.

Race Replay

Gullane One
04/05/23 – 4.30 Redcar:

Led his group on the far side. Good pace. Ran strongly to the line but beaten by one from off the pace. Strong form through winner and 2nd.

Better over 6f and pretty ground independent, though may not want the extreme end of either side of the going stick. Ran good speed ratings within last twelve month and this a clear return to form.

Race Replay

Big R
04/05/23 – 2.10 Salisbury:

At disadvantage from the #8 gate. Caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. Good progress on outside from halfway stage. Nearly upside leaders over 1f out, before getting tired.

Comeback run and handicap debut. Huge performance against pace and track bias. Showed good early speed last year. May stay 7f on pedigree but 6f possibly ideal.

Was a cheap yearling but looks clearly better than opening 70 mark.

Race Replay

Michaels Choice
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Had the widest draw to overcome. Huge disadvantage. Raced widest without cover. Good progress from over 2f out, just tired late.

Strong run on seasonal reappearance. Ran to 66 speed rating. Clearly as good as ever. Won off 70 multiple times in the past. Ran to 70 speed rating twice last year.

Loves it at Salisbury. Interesting next time out but in an ideal world he finds a way to drop a couple of pounds to become seriously well-handicapped.

Race Replay

With Respect
04/05/23 – 2.45 Salisbury:

Awkward start, travelled strongly against the inside rail at the end of the field. Good progress but full effort delayed until he got out late to finish strongly.

Ran 70 speed rating equal to current mark. Caught the eye on the All-Weather before. Seems to be still improving and capable of winning, especially if not harshly assessed for this run by the handicapper.

Most likely prefers a bit of give in the ground, certainly no fast ground. Can be a bit tricky out of the gate but usually a strong traveller.

Race Replay

Capofan
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Raced about 5 lengths off the pace, quite keen, took a grip. Overraced especially around the home bend and huge move from 4f out to go upside with leaders. Fell away in the closing stages.


Still a maiden and not one to trust too much, didn’t run a good speed rating yet. However this is probably solid form and a drop to 6f will be interesting off revised career-lowest mark.

Race Replay


B Associates
05/05/23 4.25 Musselburgh:

Travelled off the pace, outpaced halfway through, before good progress. held up behind leaders from 2f out, looked bit awkward, possibly hung. Ran on strongly.


Caught the eye lto over the minimum trip at Newcastle as well. Clearly in strong form but a difficult sort. A step up to 1m interesting. Maybe one tough to catch given it’s Goldie.

Race Replay

Azano
05/05/23 – 5.20 Newmarket:

Made the most of the standing start. Led, set strong pace, had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out and ran home better than most, bar a strong winner. Strong 92 speed rating.

Clearly up to win and confirmed level of form shown last year. If untouched by the handicapper interesting in similar race, especially in a smaller field.

Race Replay

Island Star
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked an honest pace, always going well. Not a clear run from 3f out when horses led across him and hindered him to move out for his effort. Accelerated well once in the clear, especially after he was close to the pace all the time, before getting tired and not given a hard time in the final furlong.

Won well lto. Looks progressive and could still be handicapped to win off 77, after running to 73 speed rating here in not ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Vecchio
05/05/23 – 4.20 Goodwood:

Tracked the pace early on, pretty keen through the race. Not a clear run in the home straight and had to delay full effort multiple times, also hung. Finished nicely under and easy ride in the final furlong.

Comeback run and gelded during his break. First try over a mile. Should get the trip easily if he can settle better. A drop to 7f shouldn’t be an issue, either. Should be competitive off a revised mark.

Race Replay

Straits Of Moyle
06/05/23 – 2.00 Thirsk:

Right up with the pace, never far off, always racing in prominent position. Was going notably well 2f out, found plenty for pressure and only went down behind two well handicapped horses.

Strong form. Clearly in good nick. Ran career best speed rating on All-Weather earlier this year, although much better on turf.

Ran 74+ speed ratings twice, including a career-best 79 last summer. Handicapped to win off 72 as left untouched by handicapper.

Race Replay

Lokada
06/05/23 – 1.35 Naas:

Prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best. Got up late for 2nd place on his side, but no chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.

Up 2lb, more than fair. Ran to 70 speed rating here and 81 on AW last year. This form should be strong, every chance can progress and win next time. If not for racing from a wide draw lto at Dundalk her record could read even better.

Race Replay

Betting

Monday Selections: 8th May 2023

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Frustrating Sunday. Frustrating weekend… would, could, should. Al Husn and Up And Under solid 2nd place efforts. Although, it was a poor ride by Mikey Sheehy in the Derby Trial.

The pace wasn’t hot and he gave the colt way too much to do. Al Husn ran well but had no chance with the winner. I think she should be capable of winning a Group 3 over 10 furlongs, though, and remains on my list.

Remarquee never seemed to travel and was beaten before the 1000 Guineas approached the halfway mark. Mawj, who I mentioned in the preview as “a danger I seriously rate”, won in a thrilling finish. Of course I left her unbacked.

Sir Benedict was the “cherry on the cake”. Not. Yes. I’m talking through my pocket, and of course the horse is one who finds trouble consistently. But there were ways to avoid it here. Callum Rodriguez made every effort to ensure he finds the trouble today. Disappointing.

Well, it could have a been a sensational weekend. It wasn’t. The winner on Saturday helps to even things out, to the most part. On to Monday….

…….

7.15 Windsor. Class 5 Handicap, 5f

I am prepared to give Concierge another chance after his solid but ultimately uncompetitive effort at Yarmouth last month. I backed him that day, despite some reservations given the surface and trip.

He moves up in grade but drops down in trip. I don’ think this race is overly competitive, so I’m not concerned about the class. However, I do fancy him over the minimum trip, especially with cut in the ground.

He’s a course and distance winner as well and has dropped another pound, down to a mark of 65. That’s only a pound off the 64 speed rating he achieved back in March at Kempton – although that was on the sand.

Nonetheless, that run clearly showed he’s still well capable to run to a competitive level in these lower grade.

That day Concierge was a serious eyecatcher as he travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside and showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.

As mentioned before I do forgive him the Yarmouth run, too. Deep ground and 6 furlongs – it was an error of judgement on my part. This test here will suit perfectly.

10pts win – Concierge @ 8/1

………

8.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

A competitive race on the sand for this class with many chances, but that helps to drive the price for Bayraat to a point where it’s impossible to ignore him.

He drops down to 0-65 level here after he ran with tons of credit on his seasonal reappearance at Southwell in a slightly tougher race over 7 furlongs five weeks ago.

He crossed over from the #8 draw to lead the field early, before following closely the leader, doing so a little bit too keenly. He hung in the closing stages, but ran on nicely at the same time.

That performance was in line with the one that caught my eye for the first time back in November last year at Newcastle over 6f when he was lightly bumped after the start, quickly moved forward and found plenty under pressure from 2 furlongs out. That form looks solid.

You can easily forgive him a subsequent poor showing (15/11) over 7 furlongs as he was restraint at the back of the field and never in the race.

He only made his belated handicap debut at Southwell and appears off potentially well handicapped now off 65 as he drops into an easier race as well as moving down in trip.

6 furlongs with a stiff finish such as here at Newcastle may well be an ideal scenario. On his only course and distance run he was a strong runner-up. The winner that day ran well in class 3 company off 83 subsequently, whereas third and fourth placed horses have won in the meantime.

10pts win – Bayraat @ 8.5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 5th May 2023

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One from three, Totnes saved the day with a late charge to win ultimately with authority, though. The wide draw was a concern and he had to come from last to first on the wide outside. Thankfully he had too much in hand. He was well backed as well (6/4 SP).

Far From A Ruby was disappointing. However, I wouldn’t lose faith. Perhaps she was too keen, perhaps the ride was too aggressive, as the sectionals look fast, if they can be believed. She’ll have her day in the sun sooner rather than later.

Compere ran well but didn’t have any excuses. Perhaps the race was more competitive as I gave it credit. In any case, he wasn’t quite good enough.

We’re in May, a couple of days away from the first Classic of the season. Yet, here I am having another three selections for Newcastle on Friday after those two runners at Chelmsford on Thursday.

……….

7.55 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Intriguing contest largely due to some unexposed horses that could improve for experience and their handicap debut.

More exposed than most here but still open to improvement off her current mark is Bella Kopella. She caught the eye the last time over 7 furlongs here at Newcastle:

She was early up with the pace, before tracking the leader who set a solid pace. She made stylish progress from over 2f out as she moved forward and travelled like the winner. Perhaps she did too much in the middle part of the race as she tired badly in the final furlong.

The form of the race is up for debate, however, she won really well four weeks earlier over the same CD, also travelling powerfully in the middle of the race.

Nonetheless, she finished not particularly strongly that day either. Both times off a hot pace, though. She has shown good cruising speed, hence the drop to 6 furlongs looks possibly ideal, especially here at Newcastle.

Bella Kopella was progressive as a juvenile, is clearly an experienced filly at this stage, but looks still open to more improvement, as she ran to a 59 speed rating lto when she won in March, in a race that worked out really well in the meantime.

10pt win – Bella Kopella @ 15/2

……

8.25 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Macho Pride is a standout in this field. He looks seriously well handicapped on his second run for the Ruth Carr yard.

He ran with plenty of credit on the All-Weather during the winter months and showed positive signs the last two runs as well. Soft ground was never to suit when last seen, but there as well as prior over this CD he showed excellent early speed and enthusiasm for the game.

Especially two back, his 8th place finish was a much better run than the bare form may suggest. It was strong race, and as a reference performance for his form it’s really promising.

He drops into a much easier race here on the sand now and showed also on the clock some solid performances in the not too distance past. Last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+, in December he ran to 56 and February 54, both times over 6 furlongs at Newcastle.

It’s pretty obvious that he is seriously well weighted off 54 now, if in peak form, which I imagine his last two runs have helped to get him ready for.

10pts win – Macho Pride @ 9/1

……..

9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Beneficiary looks so ready and has found the perfect race, I firmly believe. He ran a massive race in February over 6 furlongs at Newcastle, when he came to my attention, and he should really benefit from the drop to the minimum trip.

Back then he moved forward, pushed a good pace as part of a duo initially, before he grabbed the lead 2f out, still ahead approaching final furlong but then tired rapidly.

It was a strong performance in a very strong race and he followed up with another strong run from the front when last seen. He tends to be keen and go off to hard over 6 furlongs, hence the drop to 5f will be helpful.

He drops into a much easier race here and has been given additional help from the handicapper as well. He ran to a 63 speed rating in January, so a mark off 60 offers a great chance.

The fact there is plenty of pace here should be a bonus. He doesn’t have to lead, but rather can follow the front-runners and wait for the right moment to kick on as he has stamina for an additional furlong.

10pts win – Beneficiary @ 7/2