Tag Archives: 2024

Betting

Saturday Selections: 1st June 2024

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4.30 Epsom: Group 1 English Derby, 1m 4f

How much hype is left, and is it still real? Well, in any case I can’t have City of Troy today, even though, given his sky high reputation at Ballydoyle, 3/1 could be tremendous value come shortly after half past five.

For that he must be a different colt than the one that showed up at Newmarket. Well-respected racing analysts suggested there were good reason why COT failed to fire at Newmarket, and why Epsom’s Derby test should suit him so much better

That may well be true. But will the actual race be run to suit him in practice? The #1 draw and all the pace in the race won’t make it easy for COT to settle or find an easy route to a comfortable position early on. The dangers of him overracing early on are real, I feel.

I find Ancient Wisdom much more appealing, given he should improve for the Dante run, most likely will improve for the trip and seems drawn right around the likely pace.

He was somewhat unfortunate when having to delay his run from 3 furlongs out in the Dante, which may have added to the 6 lengths defeat, which looks more dramatic than it may have been otherweise.

Not sure whether he needs it much softer, though. His best performances come with plenty of juice in the ground. There is good to soft left, but it continues to dry. At 6/1 I feel he’s just about a fair price.

Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly couldn’t have been more impressive visually at Lingfield. He may have been really well suited to how the race developed, though, and it was a poor renewal of the race. Hence I’m intrigued whether he can confirm that seemingly impressive performance.

Glenagles siring a Derby winner would be quite something, too. He’s got some decent progeny that stayed this trip. But this is a different level than a Group 2 in France, where they crawl the first three quarters of the race.

Los Angeles has been touted as the “ideal Derby horse” by some experts. He certainly did well to win the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and given the yard he hails from, you’d expect nothing less than improvement today.

Lightly raced, clearly more to come and the trip probably fine, given he’s a son of Camelot, he’s a big player. However, I don’t like the fact that he’s yet to run any significant speed rating.

The one I’m most interest in from a price point of view is clearly Dancing Gemini. He’s got the right pedigree, with dam and damsire both having been Derby winners. He’d be a Classic winner if for a better ride, I believe, too.

It was an outrageous crime that Dylan Browne McMonagle wasted a superb draw and a fine start to the French Guineas. He was shuffled back and ultimately had to delay his run until 150m out, when Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly, and perhaps a couple more strides would have won – or if Dancing Gemini would have gone into the clear a tiny bit earlier.

The son of Camelot travelled nicely throughout, was fairly well settled and showed a tremendous attitude and bravery in the closing stages.

Obviously, moving up to the Derby trip is an unknown. But he’s got the pedigree, and perhaps the #15 draw means he can easily move forward, to track the pace, without wasting too much energy early on.

I also like his general experience: six career runs, two wins and he improved significantly with nearly each run.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year. Having clearly trained on, he should be well capable of outrunning his price tag today.

10ps win – Dancing Gemini @ 11.5/1

…….

5.50 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Can’t leave Mums Tipple unbacked today after another highly credible effort at Newmarket recently. His chances were severely compromised by the draw and it was impressive how he kept going to finish 4th.

Mums Tipple impressed prior to Newmarket in two of his three runs on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent.

He proved that at Newmarket, and before caught the eye at Kempton in no uncertain terms as well, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but off a mark of 96 given he was competitive off marks in the 100s not too long ago.

The 6 furlongs trip will suit – his career-best performances have come over this trip and and any softish patches in the ground won’t be an issue, neither any further drying.

Ideally he would be drawn a little bit lower today, I reckon, given that’s where the pace will most likely develop. It’s a risk that he may end up running on well as happened at Newmarket, but never gets a chance to be in the race for real.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 11/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 31st May 2024

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6.30 Down Royal: Handicap, 7f

Shoot To Kill could be well placed to get back to winning ways in this, undoubtedly, competitive Handicap. His mark comes down to a dangerous 75 rating, and he’s got the ideal low draw to ensure a prominent racing position at this track.

He ran quite well since joining the McGuinness yard in Ireland – all five runs, so far, were better than the bare form would suggest, in my view. Certainly his first two runs for the new yard at Dundalk caught my eye.

A poor start at Lingfield buried his chances on AW Champions Day, and his recent 6th in a hot Handicap on softer than ideal ground, behind a well-handicapped winner, was a strong effort as well, suggesting he’s certainly in excellent form.

A slight drop in class will help, as his 75 rating allows him to race in this easier grade now. Usually one who’s up with the pace, the #1 draw is a positive, as he can – unless a bad starts – move forward and track the pace closely.

Seven furlongs, decent ground should suit him really well. A winner from 6 furlongs to a mile, all his turf wins came on decent ground.

The yard has a bad spell right now and had only 2 winners on turf this year. That’s a real concern. But at the given prices, with seemingly a lot in Shoot To Kill’s favour, it’s worth the risk.

10pts win – Shoot To Kill @ 10/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 28th May 2024

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3.45 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Ten Furlongs, fast ground, an easier grade, blinkers back on: this looks an ideal opportunity for Night Bear to score again.

He ran well over the last number of weeks, either third or fourth in his last four starts. He was eye-catching at Lingfield two back, and also the way he showed an excellent attitude when under pressure last time at Kempton.

I feel Night Bear is a better horse over 10f, in fact three of his four career wins come over that trip and all came on fast ground. He’s usually up with the pace, not a negative at Brighton on fast ground and he should enjoy the uphill finish today.

There is plenty of competition for the pace, but that may ensure this is going to be an honest race and I feel this will help him more than anything.

The money is coming this morning and the sexy prices are certainly gone. But I’m happy to enough to back him at what’s left there, as this looks a golden opportunity for Night Bear.

10pts win – Night Bear @ 9/2

…….

7.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Beauld As Brass seriously caught the eye last time at Brighton coming off a near year-long break. The potential bounce factor may be an issue, but he may strip fitter today at the same time as it seemed tiredness, possibly not being fully tuned up on the day, that saw him fall back to 4th, eventually.

He burned through the first half of the race, setting a hot pace as part of a duo and then looked a bit awkward in the finish at Brighton. I reckon he could come on for the run, and if he does will have a big chance today.

6 furlongs on the sand are fine. He’s been eased another pound, 3lb above his last winning mark. However, back then he also achieved a career-best 63 speed rating.

He’s got form on the All-Weather and should be suited by Lingfield today, given his usual positive racing style. He’s drawn right beside Lilkian, who surely will move forward, and may push the pace with Agostino, who has to cross over from his wide #10 draw, though.

That may shape like an ideal scenario, as Beauld As Brass can track in touching distance and pounce in the home straight. There may not be too much else get involved here, I feel, with the rest possibly too far back at that point.

Rob Havlin has been booked, which I take as a positive. And the yard also seems to hit some form of late.

10pts win – Beauld As Brass @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 27th May 2024

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That was a disappointing Sunday, especially as it was clear after two furlongs that both Elegant Man and Azada will struggle to make any impact in their respective races.

Elegant Man never looked happy on the gras. Whether it was just rain that went into the ground, or the surface itself, who knows. Azada was way too keen to have any chance of winning a competitive 1000 Guineas.

It was only her second career run, back off a break; she’ll learn and remains of interest, given she did travel well for quite a long time.

……..

3.45 Yarmouth: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The short priced favourite Hover on The Wind looks opposable given the much softer ground conditions today, albeit he acts on soft, his best performances came on decent ground, or at least, no less than good to soft in places.

A new career-best is required too. Not impossible, but it’s difficult to see where there’s any value in the price, with all possible improvement very much factored in.

At a much bigger price I’m quite keen on Parisiac, who caught my eye in his most recent run, back in March at Doncaster. That was a hot class 3 contest, so he takes a big drop in class today.

He was not up to the task against much classier opposition back then, but showed a nice attitude, not giving in, even when beaten, after pushing a hot pace early on.

Down to his last winning mark now, Parisiac should be ready for a big run. In his last two runs in 2023, he achieved 71 and 75 speed ratings, and if he can get back to that level of form he must rate a big chance today.

The ground is certainly in his favour, as two of his three career-bests on speed ratings have been achieved in the mud. The 5lb claim of Tommie Jakes is an added bonus today, especially as the apprentice is 3-1-1 when on board.

10pts win – Parisiac @ 8/1

……..

4.35 Redcar: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

This looks an open race and I’ll take a chance on Stressfree, who will enjoy the soft ground and ran much better in all three starts this, including when well beaten the last two times.

On his seasonal reappearance he was an excellent runner-up behind Qitaal, who enjoyed the run of the race and was seriously well-handicapped on that day. I felt that performance warranted an upgrade.

Stressfree appeared to have disappointed the next two times. Though, from off the pace, it was always going to be a struggle at Ripon, and he made some decent progress while not enjoying the clearest of passages, with the winner in the different world, anyway.

The ground was never to suit when last seen at York. Nonetheless, once again, he travelled well enough and made some good progress before running out of steam and possibly being saved for another day.

Not sure he’s up to this class today, but off 85, with the visor on for the first time, and a good draw close to the pace, he could get an ideal race, on the ground he loves.

10pts win – Stressfree @ 12/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 25th May 2024

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2.30 Curragh: Group 2 Greenland Stakes, 6f

It seems I’m too late to the party, given nearly all juice has been squeezed out of her price this morning, but I still feel there’s a tiny bit of value left in a race that probably will very much develop toward the stands rail.

With that in mind, Matilda Picotte is perfectly placed to utilise her excellent gate speed to grab the rail. The ground is slightly quicker than ideal, the drop in trip also a slight question mark. But the filly has shown she can handle both.

Her recent run in the Saudi Turf Sprint, then over 7 furlongs, came on quick ground. She stormed out of the widest gate to grab the lead after an early tussle with Art Power. That early speed will be of huge help today. She led until the final furlong after setting a hot pace, and it was no surprise, after those earlier exertions, to see her fade back to 5th.

I believe, given the hot pace to be expected today, with a handful of horses usually keen to get on with things, plus the nature of the uphill finish at the Curragh, her stamina will be a useful asset as well.

Given, Matilda Picotte has won over 6 furlongs, in actual fact she’s a course and distance winner, the concerns over ground and trip are much smaller than her overall profile would suggest.

10pts win – Matilda Picotte @ 13/2

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3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m 4f

Demot Weld’s filly Sumiha must have a big shout, having been seriously unfortunate not to win at Cork when last seen. That was only her second ever career run. Slight concerns remain over the much faster ground, and any improvement is very much factored into the price already.

Raise You loves this course and distance and has a decent shout if he can take another step forward after his fair return off a long break in the Alleged Stakes back in April. He’s a short price, too, given it still requires faith that he can get back to his form from two years ago.

British visitor Candleford has been friendless in the market but the William Haggas trained gelding makes plenty of appeal on his seasonal reappearance, despite having to give weight away.

For one, he goes well fresh. He also should be in a decent spot, not too far off the pace when it matters most. Also his 2023 form is clearly the strongest on offer, especially the runner-up performance at Kempton behind Bay Bridge rating highly, as he also achieved a 101 speed rating.

The 1m 4f trip on decent to fast ground should be ideal for Candleford to show his best side.

10pts win – Candleford @ 5/1

…….

3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m

Rosallion looks a fair favourite. He’s proven to get (just) home over a mile and handled faster ground on his excellent racecourse debut last summer.

A fine runner-up in the English 2000 Guineas, where he achieved – no surprise – a career-best on multiple fronts. For all that, a mile does seem to stretch his stamina to the absolute limits, and the stiffer finish at the Curragh will test it to the max.

With that in mind, plus the fact a best 98 speed rating after five career runs, makes him look somewhat vulnerable. He’s a price to take on… saying that, this Irish 2000 Guineas field looks weak.

Of course you must rate Aiden O’Brien’s chances in this race. He’ll have River Tiber ready for his seasonal reappearance. On pedigree, a mile won’t be an issue.

He’s got to take a significant step forward, though, after his form tailed off toward the end of his juvenile campaign, and he’s yet to run a speed rating that screams “superstar”.

Craven Staked winner and English Guineas 3rd Haatem loos a rock solid chance to be right there when it matters most. He looks quite exposed, though. How much more improvement is there to come?

The value for me appears to be with Unquestionable. Clearly things didn’t quite go to plan this year so far. Aiden O’Brien admitted as much. While there’s every chance the Wootton Bassett gelding will need the run, I’ve no doubt this won’t be merely a public gallop. This is the Guineas, after all.

His juvenile form stands up, given his strong runs in the first half of 2023, and subsequently his excellent second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere behind Rosallion, which warranted an upgrade, given he was closer to the pace and seriously keen.

Unquestionable proved his unquestionable talent at the Breeders Cup with the final race last year. He was always tracking the pace and showed an impressive turn of foot as he kicked clear in the last two furlongs.

With that in mind, fast ground today won’t worry him. In fact it may suit him more than others. He stays the trip, no issues there and is drawn right beside the likely pace in Take Me To Church.

10pts win – Unquestionable @ 9.5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 24th May 2024

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4.30 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 5.5f

It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot two weeks ago coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually to lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, only 2 lengths beaten.

That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. If she can build on that run, she should have something in hand right now.

Dropping down in class, and slightly in trip to the 5.5f at Bath should suit, especially as she races against her own sex today. Her draw appears ideal, because having confirmed front-runner Connie’s Rose drawn right beside her will allow Starproof to sit on her tail, getting towed into the closing stages.

The filly is quite ground independent and won’t mind any potential soft patches left in the going description. The handicapper has been kind, having left her on the same 73 mark as she was allowed to race at Ascot. She won’t find many better opportunities to score.

10pts win – Starproof @ 4/1

…….

5.10 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This doesn’t strike me as the strongest race for this class and that offers Safari Dream a chance to outrun his price, as he who moves up in grade after he caught the eye in his last two runs.

He couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground the last time at Salisbury, yet he travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on his penultimate start, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and can strike if things fall right.

The handicapper dropped him another pound, despite those two good runs, which could prove lenient. The better ground today should suit, and he’s ran a career-best speed rating over this course and distance twelve months ago.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 17/2

……..

7.20 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 1m

I was sweet on Blues Emperor in the Lincoln back in March. That day didn’t panned out the way it was hoped, as he was always in the wind from early on, helping to push hot pace that wasn’t sustainable.

Back from a break since then, he’s back at the Curragh, and over a course and distance he’s got a 2-1-1 record, on decent enough ground that’ll suit.

He should be at his prime this year, after a fruitful campaign in 2023 where he improved with nearly every run – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way that particular race panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

Today is a highly competitive contest, but one where there should be less competition for the pace than at Doncaster. It can prove crucial racing toward the front over this CD, so he may enjoy the run of the race today. Off a 96 mark, he could still have a bit more to offer as well.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 17/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 23rd May 2024

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7.17 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Two I like: Jungle Hill was an obvious eyecatcher last time at Wolverhampton. A course and distance winner off his current mark, he’s a big chance. He moves ever so slightly up in class, and with that in mind he’s a short enough price.

I’m more interested in Kessaar Power, who entered my notebook back in March when he caught the eye over a wrong trip at Southwell. He had excuses for the somewhat lesser runs subsequently, although didn’t help his cause with sluggish starts.

That’s a clear danger today. If that happens he’ll be beaten within the first hundred yards. At the same time I’m prepared to take the risk because he’s usually seen up front, has the #1 draw to attack the race from and is seriously well-handicapped, in theory.

This course and distance brought the best out of him in the past. A 4-1-1 record, and his most recent run here was better than the bare form suggests.

Down to a mark of 57, with the solid assistance of 3lb claiming Grace McEntee, the gelding looks ready for the big run. He’s also entered for Yarmouth next week, the flat course he’s been most effective at, suggesting connections may believe the 5-year-old is certainly ready to go close.

10pts win – Kessaar Power @ 11/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 22nd May 2024

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Finally a winner! The wait was long… and painful. What a nightmare over the last weeks. Thankfully Dion Baker managed to fight gamely to get his head in front when it mattered most in a thriller of a race at Brighton yesterday afternoon.

He went off a 5/2 favourite. The 4/1 I got were good value; though, of course, nothing to shout about if you burned through last years profits as quickly as I normally do through a pack of Tuc Crackers. Hopefully things turn for the better from now on….

……..

8.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Giant looks a different horse since his gelding last October. The 4-year-old showed glimpses of ability in the past, but was often too keen for his own good.

Since his reappearance at Kempton in March, where he won in impressive style from the front and achieved a career-best speed rating as well, he was able to follow-up with two more highly credible performances.

Earlier this months, once again at Kempton, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms and that performance suggested he could still be a handful of pounds ahead of his current mark, despite a subsequent rise by 2lb. That may prove lenient, though, given he was only beaten by a head and somewhat unfortunate that day.

Nearly taken out by a badly veering rival right out of the gates, he couldn’t get to lead, but got going quickly again and tracked the hot pace. Inside the final three furlongs he was switched left for effort, appeared flat footed for a few strides, before showing a superb attitude battling hard to the line.

He was only beaten by Thapa Vc, who was extremely well-handicapped that day, and who avoided the red hot early pace, sitting in midfield (goes today, too, may struggle from off the pace today).

No question, today is a deep enough race. Brasil Power with preferred headgear combination and back in form looks potentially ominous. Rajindri loves this CD, and could find herself nicely towed into the home straight. Zero Carbon drops in grade and showed good form lately.

However, none of them appear overly well-handicapped, in my view. Hence what speaks for Giant, beside that he appears still on the up and therefore likely better than a current 82 Official Rating, is his good low draw, and a pace scenario that will suit, for this naturally forward gelding.

An easy lead may or may not be on the cards, but other potential pace setters can be hit an miss with their efforts to lead and only Zero Carbon, drawn right beside Giant, may provide the only real competition.

Given he should have it easy moving forward, whether leading, or perhaps following closely, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle you can expect a proper run, especially over this course and distance (4-1-3).

The price, in fairness, is skinny enough, and right on the edge for me, as my strike rate tends to be poor, comparably to what it should be, at the lower end of prices.

Saying that I was happy enough to see 4’s able to get matched completely this morning and I’d have him about a point shorter, if I had to price up the race, simply because he’s the most rock solid, in-form selection, who’ get his race and may still be ahead of his mark.

10pts win – Giant @ 4/1 SM

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st May 2024

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It’s just not happening right now… strong run from Showboated who was a clear passage denied at a crucial stage and as a result had to delay his fully effort. DH for 3rd, eventually.

Another solid run and placed selection at double figure prices…. thankfully, at the very least, selections outrun expectations…. but that W remains elusive. A nightmare.

………

3.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Dion Baker is in smashing form and a repeat his last three highly eyecatching runs will see him win this.

He bumped into a couple last time at Wolverhampton, where he was hard at work early on to grab the lead in what should prove a hot contest – the winner was certainly well-handicapped on the day.

The two times before, at Yarmouth over a mile and prior to that over 6 furlongs, the gelding travelled pretty well and showed a lovely attitude to fight gamely, although was possibly outclassed somewhat and beaten by the race dynamics too.

Brighton, 7 furlongs, and the chance for having it easy enough to get the lead, down in class where he’s got a 3-1-2 record on turf, including his sole turf win, as well as achieved in each run good speed ratings, should afford him a cracking chance to add a third career victory to his CV.

He was only a shoulder beaten in higher grade last summer over this course and distance off 6lb higher than today. Since then he ran 64+ speed ratings on three occasions on sand or turf.

Currently down to a seriously dangerous mark of 63 the 5-year-old must be the prime contender in this race, as long as the rain doesn’t turn the ground too soft. It should subside, and not be enough to get much worse than good, though.

10pts win – Dion Baker @ 4/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 20th May 2024

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3.30 Redcar: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Showboated caught the for different reasons in each of his three runs this year and off bottom weight could play a bigger part than the betting may wants give him this morning.

He meets Pinpoint again, the one horse he finished behind three weeks ago at Ayr. That was a career-best performance on every measure, including speed ratings.

Dropped He was always travelling on the outside, right up with the pace, without cover, quite keenly. The winner was following closely, but always nicely covered up. That made the difference on the day.

He dropped to the minimum trip and responded well to that, showing good early speed, for all that he can be a bit awkward out the gates, and and kept on once under pressure with a good attitude.

On his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle in March Showboated entered the notebook for the first time. Not quite the best of starts, he was keen subsequently, travelled well enough and showed a good attitude to finish his race.

He never landed a blow over 7f next time. But that trip was too far, he was overly keen, and also interfered halfway through the race.

A sprint over 5 furlongs with plenty of pace could be exactly what this gelding needs. Fast ground is a question, but the pace scenario should help him and he’s drawn right beside one of the likely front-runners too.

Obviously he moves up up in class, meets some higher rated rivals today. Although, this 0-62 looks a particularly poor contest for this class. Off 8-8 he looks a tasty price, who can, at the very least, outrun his price.

10pts win – Showboated @ 9.5/1