First winner in roughly two months yesterday (with seven weeks break in between, though). And it couldn’t have been a better one. Big Rock demolished the field in the QEII.
I couldn’t quite believe the performance. As he established an eight lengths lead….. he didn’t tire and romped home in spectacular fashion.
The other jockeys seemed asleep on the wheel, on the other hand. How could they all gift this highly talented colt such a huge, uncontested lead?
It was a superb run by Swingalong in the Champions Sprint. She finished a gallant 4th, outran her odds and briefly looked like she may even win. Cant complain.
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3.20 Leopardstown: Listed Trigo Stakes, 10f
The two top-rated horses Lafayette and Sprewell are clearly the horses who should fight this out. They stand out in terms of their achievements this year.
Lafayette has been consistent for the most part this year, enjoys soft ground, stays the trip and will find this opposition a bit easier. Nonetheless, there’s an argument to be made that he’s been seen to best effect away from Leopardstown.
The opposite is true for Sprewell. He showed a lot of promise early in the season when he improved from a winning reappearance at Naas to land the Derby Trial here at Leopardstown in fine style as he denied solid yardstick Up And Under.
I wrote before how much I loved his Epsom Derby run, even though it’s probably fair to say Sprewell didn’t put his talent to best effect in two subsequent races.
In saying that, there’re solid reasons for that. For one, he raced against hot opposition in the Irish Derby and then in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also, it seems pretty clear now, prefers a softer going.
Leopardstown, 10 furlongs and plenty of give in the ground will suit today. Sprewell should enjoy this significant drop in class as well. He deserves his chance today heading the field as the favourite in my mind.
I’m happy I got my full stake matched over night at a touch over 5/2 on various exchanges, though that is rapidly disappearing and I probably would find anything below 2/1 too short for me personally, just as a side note.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the track rides and the draw it’s going to favour on this going, with the switch to the inside track.
This race could – certainly from a pace angle – shape to favour the lower drawn horses. That should very much favour Kinross who isn’t drawn too far away from those who’ll likely move forward.
Nonetheless, there are two bigger prices that I quite like to possibly outrun their odds: the two fillies Swingalong and drawn right beside her, Believing.
Both ran huge races in the same race last time out at Haydock, when third and fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Different track and ground today, yet the two fillies have shown to handle soft underfoot conditions.
Swingalong started off her season with a fine effort in the Fred Darling on deep ground. She didn’t get home in those conditions over 7 furlongs, and certainly didn’t stay a mile in even worse conditions at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas.
But when dropped to 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, she outrun her big odds to finish a superb 3rd. She followed on to show excellent early speed and guts in the closing stages to land the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.
At Haydock, when last seen, she was completely isolated on the stands’ side, which wasn’t ideal. The filly did well to hang on for fourth and probably could have finished much closer if she would have raced as part of the main field, I felt.
Believing raced just on the outside of the main bunch for the most part of the race that day, and she finished closer to the stands side ultimately, racing without company for the last two furlongs, which wasn’t an advantage. I loved her attitude, nonetheless, as she kept on for third place all the way to the line.
She achieved a career-best speed rating of 100 that day, having shown excellent improvement from a strong 92 showing at Pontefract when she won against the run of race after a less than ideal start from a wider than ideal draw, coming from well off the pace.
The filly is progressing all the time this year despite her relative experience with 14 career runs under the belt. She won three times this season and did so on soft ground as well.
Her draw looks ideal, she probably will be forward enough with headgear fitted for the first time, and if she tracks Swingalong, she may get a nice lead into the finish.
Swingalong herself has ran 97 speed figures back-to-back now, and may not have reached her peak yet. She has form on soft and possesses possibly a bit of extra stamina that could be key for her to stay in front in the closing stages. She has to improve again, though, that’s clear also.
This is incredibly competitive, though. Things have to go right from start to finish for both these fillies to outrun their price tag. However, if things fall right, these two fillies clearly have the ability to finish a lot closer than 30/1+ odds suggest.
What a brilliant field. A true race of champions. But does the ground change the trajectory of the race? I definitely think so. This is going to be a fast race, on soft ground. It’ll take solid cruising speed and stamina to win.
I have worries that this isn’t the right test for brilliant Tahira to bring the best out of her, as mouth watering a clash with Paddington is on paper.
Paddington is the one to beat. He’s a superb miler and possibly an even better horse over ten furlongs. He ran two 110+ speed ratings this season and has won on any ground. This mile test with cut in the ground could be an ideal test.
On the other hand, his very best form came on better ground. He also had a lot of racing and didn’t fire at York when last seen. AOB is the master to get his stars back on track, so you would think Paddington comes here in the form of his life.
Nonetheless, given the price is short enough, I think one can be bold and take this superstar colt on.
Nashwaa over a mile is one to consider. She ran 100 and 106 speed ratings the last two times over 10 furlongs. However, again the ground is a slight question mark, as her best comes on better going as well. Still, this testing mile should suit.
Chaldean over a mile on softish ground at Ascot could be a perfect match. He looks a touch overpriced.
However, clearly the one who seems the forgotten horse in this field is Big Rock. Perhaps, some take a too negative view on his last two runs when beaten favourite.
In my view, this test will suit him tremendously well. The ground, the track and the fact he may not even need to make all but rather follow the pace closely, which should be hot enough – and if not he simply moves forward – looks perfect.
Prominent horses should be favoured here and once he hits the front he may be difficult to pass.
It’s true, though, he’s got to bounce back from a somewhat unconvincing 2nd place in the Prix du Moulin. He wasn’t the sharpest away, and possibly did too much in the early stages of the race.
If one is prepared to forgive him that below-par performance – still a runner-up performance in Group 1 company – then he’s right up there with the best in this field.
His second behind Inspiral in the Jacques le Marois is seriously strong form. The filly came from off the pace to overhaul him late. He achieved a superb 108 speed rating that day, nonetheless.
In hindsight, given what Ace Impact did since then, Big Rock’s runner-up performance in the French Derby looks even better than it did on the day itself.
He did a lot in front, and was only beaten in the closing staged by the subsequent Arc winner, who was ridden with much more restraint.
Overall, Big Rock has been a consistently top-class performer this year. I believe this track, trip and ground can bring the best out of him.
If Redcar makes it as far the third race on their card today, then I’d be really keen on High Opinion to outrun his price tag.
The gelding was fancied all season but hasn’t quite delivered the goods. He caught the eye on a number of occasions, though, striking me as somewhat unfortunate to remain on a single career-win.
Clearly, judged on speed ratings he must be given a more than fair chance to change the current state today: now down to a 57 handicap mark, with the assistance of solid 3lb claiming Andrew Breslin in the saddle.
He ran 54+ speed ratings four times this year, and arguably his best performance at Ripon (56) came in a hot race where he was desperately unlucky not get a good deal closer – if only for a clear run.
The subsequent performances were a good deal better than they may appear on paper. High Opinion confirmed his wellbeing and was possibly just looking for a bit of help from the handicapper, a slightly easier race and a flat straight five with cut in the ground.
The 4-year-old is 1/14 throughout his career, hence one who often finds trouble. Today could be an ideal opportunity, though. His career-best runs came over 5 furlongs and deep ground.
He’s right drawn beside the likely pace, so in an ideal world, unless he badly misses the start, should get a nice lead into the final part of the race.
A possible negative is if they don’t go a solid gallop. High Opinion has tendencies to pull and a possible pace scenario leaves space for a somewhat slowly run race.
I highly rate the dangers of Northcliff, who despite his 0/19 record could have a class edge here, as well as Rajmeister who enjoys these conditions and won off the same mark earlier this year.
If High Opinion would be the one of the shorter prices he was in most his runs this season I’d probably give it a miss today. He’s not a winner, finds trouble, and may end up pulling his chances away. However, he’s simply a superb price, that compensates more than enough for those negatives, because he’s clearly handicapped to win, if all goes well.
Winter is coming. With that in mind I’m starting a new list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.
All-Weather Eyecatchers is a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.
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Jimmy Mark 05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:
Held up in last until he made excellent progress from 4f out. Turned very wide and plenty to do. Not the clearest of runs in the home straight, yet finished much the best.
Clearly still improving after cosy Bath success lto. Outstayed his pedigree so far. Racing style not ideal for AW but a smaller field not contested at a rapid clip over 10f should be fine as he possesses cruising speed and a change of gear likely superior for this grade.
Would be intriguing if he drops in trip as well to a mile as he possesses the speed.
Bit keen in the early parts of the race. Restrained in midfield. Travelled strongly to the 2f marker and made strong move around the home bend. Maybe didn’t quite get home in the final furlong.
Still a maiden, however, ran to 60 speed rating over 1m on the AW earlier the year. A drop to a mile or the 8.5f at Wolverhampton could bring out more improvement off a potentially lenient mark. Recent turf run can be ignored.
Travelled strongly in rear. Made excellent progress on sectionals and visually from 4f out all the way to inside 2f from home. Had a lot to do, though. Ran out off steam eventually.
Clear return to form. Down to dangerous mark. 6f Newcastle obviously interesting next time, as long as there is a solid pace to chance. Otherwise may be worth wait for additional help from the handicapper.
Ducked left at the start, quickly recovered and moved forward. Soon grabbed the lead and was quick through the first three furlongs going well before falling away from 1.5f out.
Usually a quick starter. Big prices ever since moving to Ireland. Slowly comes down to intriguing mark. Ran to 55+ speed ratings three times last year on the All-Weather. May have a few more runs before fully in the picture for win purposes. Watch the betting.
Keen early on, hampered soon after the start and even further lit up as a consequence. Made strong progress from 3f out to be in a challenging position over 1f out. Couldn’t sustain effort but showed good attitude all the way to the line.
Big price, and only second start in handicap company. Should stay the trip on pedigree but may benefit from a drop to a mile or 8.5f. Unexposed, and could be better than this lowly mark.
Quick start from widest draw. Chased leader, before taking up the lead entering the home straight. Awkward over 1f out before getting tired and swamped. Strong run at big price.
Seems to hit form again and 1lb below last winning mark. Has turf entry next but worth to wait for 5f AW, especially with any additional help from the handicapper and in a race he could dominate.
Solid start, travelled well enough throughout. However, held up around the home bend as trapped on the inside when the crucial moves where made in front of him. Made strong progress once in the clear and still finished best over the last three furlongs.
Only 3rd AW run. Scope for improvement. Should be able to step up to a mile as well. Clearly capable off 58 and possibly a win or two better, as he also ran to 57 speed rating here in less than ideal circumstances.
Quickly moved forward on the outside of the early leaders. Grabbed the lead and fastest through four of first five furlongs, keen as well in first-time blinkers.
No surprise to see him tire badly. 7f looks ideal. Showed some good form over the trip in the past. Unexposed on the All-Weather. Down to intriguing mark when trip and headgear are more suitable.
Good start, but lit up my moving horse in front of him just before the bend that saw him fall back into tendencies to hang badly. Gave a lot of ground away and needed time to find his feed. Ran home strongly from 2f out, fasted through the final furlong.
Huge ran prior at Wolverhampton from the front as well from wide draw. Obviously a frustrating sort. Not genuine. But also clearly better than OR 74 if he can get his act together. Ideally has an inside draw to get cover on the sides.
Drop to 5f also interesting on a straight, perhaps even with application of headgear once more.
Not the sharpest away and pushed forward, but soon pulled through on the inside to grab the led thanks to the low draw. In front until 2f before getting badly tired. First run for new yard off a small break.
Still lightly enough raced. Ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year. Will come down to intriguing mark over 7f or maybe even more so a mile especially when he gets a good draw once again.
There should be a good deal of pace in this race and that may bring Tuscan into play if he can find a early cover from the #9 draw, which is a concern. On the other hand there are plenty of positives for his chances and he’s got an entry next week as well, which may be worth following, depending on the result here.
Obviously the gelding has been on the slide for a while. Down to a new career-lowest mark, after what I thought was in fact a promising run at Musselburgh and subsequently at Leicester when last seen
At Musselburgh he settled well off the pace, restrained, despite a good draw. Then had a lot to do from over 3f out and didn’t seem to have the change of gear in this class required over 7 furlongs to make serious progress.
He wasn’t helped being right in the middle of a big bunch of horses and a shifting rivals over gave him a bump as well. In the grand scheme of things he ran okay, though.
Tuscan followed up at Leicester with a highly promising effort when doing a lot in the middle part and looked threatening for a brief moment, however he was behind a wall of horses and ultimately had too much to do from off the pace.
He could find himself in the same scenario, but with a good jockey booking, a clear run toward the outside may be the answer.
I’m really intrigued by his chances over this trip, especially off his current mark and in this grade. He didn’t have too many chances over a mile, certainly not in lower grades. T
The draw, as mentioned before is a concern. If he’s caught wide or too far behind it could be game over early, especially at this track. He was at his best when racing in a prominent position in the past, in fact.
All good things must come to an end: after a week of travelling it’s back to bread and butter today. The memories of York, Windsor, Goodwood and Epsom will last, though.
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8.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
The pace looks potentially muddling in this small field. That makes it a tricky race to call and brings top-weight Compliant very much into the picture here.
The 4-year-old has to give weight away but loves the sand and this track. She may not stay 12 furlongs if run at a solid clip, but she may be able to be in the right position here and leverage her speed.
I’m intrigued by Page Three. She could be better than her current mark if the change of yards would help rectify some of her issues.
Mildyjama won well a highly competitive 10f race at this track when last seen. She was well placed, though. She may well be here once again, and that may negate the possibly negative of the new trip.
Even though a slow race may not suit her on paper, I hope this is the day to shine for Folk Star. I’m tracking the filly for a while and she didn’t prove quite as progressive as I hoped she could be this year.
In saying that, this trip will surely suit – on paper. However, Folk Star ran well, at the very least, a number of times this season over shorter trips as well. Most notably last time out over 11 furlongs here at Kempton, the race that Mildyjama won.
The run was a huge step in the right direction. She started well, travelled pretty well for most of the race in midfield, and showed a proper change of gear in the home straight, once she found a clear passage. She simply had too much to do from her position in the race.
Another day she wins it, I reckon. And with that in mind the filly proved she’s got speed as well. In this smaller field she won’t be too far off the pace, I hope, anyways. Off 63 with a good rider on board she will be competitive. Negative is the drift in the betting this morning.
Surprise Picture nearly sprang the surprise at Pontefract on Sunday. Nearly isn’t quite what puts bread on the table, though.
In contrast, Auld Toon Loon, never looked like winning but also bumped into seriously well-handicapped horse on the day.
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4.55 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Media Guest is in sensational form and the question is only whether he can hold this level for one more race. This contest is for the taking and could be an ideal test.
Last time art Leicester he was impressive after an awkward start, as he tracked the pace keenly in the early stages, before moving forward to put everyone on the stretch from over three furlongs out.
It was a proper injection of pace right into the wind and without cover. Eventually he got tired and beaten for second by the favourite who was ridden with much more restraint and better cover.
He achieve a strong 64 speed rating which just about matched his current handicap mark, confirming the visual impression.
The gelding confirmed the impressive run from last month at Chelmsford as well, where he pushed the pace and was the winner on the line, only to be demoted to second afterwards.
He can ran off the same mark as he did at Leicester, only 1lb higher than at Chelmsford. On that front he’s clearly handicapped to go close and still has a few pounds in hand on his best, which he seems awfully close to at the moment.
7 furlongs is a stretch on soft ground most likely Decent ground will help and the pace scenario here, where enough is on to ensure that he doesn’t overrace early on should help.
It’s a stiff finish, but on pedigree the trip is no issue, it’s only his third start beyond 6 furlongs, so some natural improvement isn’t out of the question.
Pogo was quite disappointing on Saturday. He burnt off too much energy way too early. Perhaps I should have read the pace chart more intently, and would have noticed there was a danger for pressure, which was there, and not ideal at a track such Newbury for a horse like Pogo.
On the other hand, it’s all probabilities, and at the price, after much deliberation, I’d have backed him again.
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5.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f
Progressive Auld Toon Loon could have found an ideal opportunity to get a third win this season. The way this Handicaps pans out could ensure it falls right into his lap.
Pace is going to be key here. Some of those theoretically more dangerous rivals would want a solid gallop. While ATL is one of the few horses here who is probably rather comfortable of having anything to do with the pace, in the first place.
Over this sort of trip his record in Handicaps reads 2-1-1-2 this summer and he nearly would have gone back to back two weeks ago Haydock, proving his excellent form.
That day he moved forward and lead as part of a duo before he grabbed the contested lead by the neck halfway through and travelled seriously well into the home straight with the rest of the field on the stretch over 3f out.
Eventually he paid for the effort on heavy ground and the strong winner came for him, was ridden with a bit more restraint and overtook him.
Auld Toon Loon looks still progressing, nonetheless, and a 2lb hike in the mark may not stop him today. The ground is much better today, which should suit, given he won on fast in June when things didn’t go his way early in the race, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
Lat time at Haydock he ran a career-best 75 speed rating. A bit more is needed given his revised mark. I feel he’s got the class to do that, in the right race.
Today may not be a fast run, though. In any case Auld Toon Loon will be in the right spot, up there close to the front, and possibly difficult to get to once in front.
10pts win – Auld Toon Loon @ 5/1
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5.00 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This looks seriously competitive without being competitive. Few appear well-handicapped. Also the pace could turn out to make this difficult for some of the better fancied horses. The favourite may find himself stuck behind a wall of horses from his low draw, potentially.
Even though he already won twice in the not too distinct future and hasn’t rattled the cage in his two recent runs for a new yard, I can’t help but feel Surprise Picture – even with some money coming this morning – is overpriced, if on a going day, and could spring a surprise, indeed.
He shouldn’t find it too difficult to move across and track the pace from the #7 draw here. If he does that, he’ll be bang there when it matters when the field turns for home.
A possibly easy enough starting phase to get into a good spot, he also has pace for the trip but stays further and enjoys fast ground, at a track that favours those up with the pace over this trip – he could have enough left in the tank to fight it out.
He won last summer off 75 and ran to a 76 speed rating at Hamilton over 6 furlongs; his form this year has been moving closely into that direction again, as he ran a 70 speed rating for his Musselburgh win over 7f furlongs off 67 back in June.
Today may not be his day, I can see that argument that he’s only becoming competitive once below 70 again – but this looks a superb opportunity and I think he’ll be trying.
Jumby is out out and that opens up this race. I remain somewhat intrigued by Mostabshir, blinkers fitted, down in trip today.
If the ground dries out it’s going to help him quite a lot. I could see him ridden quite prominently and if this turns out to be a muddling affair he’s got potentially the gears. But it’s hard to be excited after his last two runs, truth told, and I want to see some spark first.
The most solid and proven option should be Pogo, though. He was a massive eye-catcher in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and ran pretty well in the Criterion Stakes last months.
Possibly he did a little bit too much in the middle part of the race and it may have been a benefit to race on the far side as well. It was a strong run, nonetheless, and he confirmed the promise shown at Royal Ascot.
After a poor time in Dubai, the Queen Anne was a significant return to form – a performance that warranted serious upgrading.
He was most likely ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile there and had too much to do from the rear of the field.
Yet, the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, was seriously impressive.
He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong but then he’s a 7 furlongs specialist. The more the ground hopefully dries out today the better for him, of course.
Ideal Guest was a winner on Wednesday – thankfully, finally, one that did what was expected. There’ve been some lean weeks recently. As the gelding romped home at 5/1 SP, half the price I got in the morning, it brought solace to my beaten up betting soul.
🥇 Fantastic to have Mikkel ride a winner for us! His first for us and many more to come we’ve no doubt! Thanks for letting him be a part of our team 1 morning a week @FellowesRacing! pic.twitter.com/l5JZufTE6A
— George Margarson Racing (@MargarsonRacing) August 16, 2023
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4.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
This looks a seriously competitive race for this class and track and this time of the year. Even more so as I’ve got four eyecatchers lining up also.
Nonetheless, the one who does stand out as potentially enjoying this easier grade is 3-year-old gelding Paddy’s Day.
He ran in better grade the last few times, and did so without disgracing himself. In fact, he caught the eye, a number of times for various reasons.
His last two runs especially suggested he’s in pretty good form, albeit finding the opposition a bit too good, still.
Last time at Haydock I also felt Paddy’s Day wasn’t ideally drawn on the far side because race and pace developed away from him to the most part.
He was going okay for a long time, though, and in fact ran the fasted mid-section, yet when it mattered most he struggled to get a clean run through due to horses shifting right in front of him in the closing stages multiple times.
It’s debatable how much of a difference that made as he may have been done by that time anyway, but at the very least he was a theoretical chance to finish closer denied.
Paddy’s Day drops down to 75 and could be dangerous in this easier race, given he showed some promise in the past, including a class 5 Lingfield win off his current mark back in March.
On the negative side, he’s yet to run a speed rating that suggests he’s better than class 5 and the #1 can bring its own dangers.
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