Fair handicap despite low grade. A golden opportunity for Fiery Breath, nonetheless. He’s the only colt in a female dominated field. The other two market principles have decent shouts in this, however, all evolves around the son of Bated Breath.
He’s back after a seasonal break during which he underwent wind surgery. However he’s not been gelded, which means there is still hope he can do something better than winning a class 6 Handicap.
Reasons are his decent pedigree. Out of a mare that won multiple times on the All-Weather, he is clearly suited to this surface, which he tries the first time.
He was not disgraced in three starts in maiden company last season, when mainly racing in higher grades. The usually travelled well but faded when it mattered. You can clearly get a feeling why connections opted for the wind OP.
The opening mark could potentially underestimate him here. I’ve not doubt that he’ll be ready to.
Selection:
10pts win – Fiery Breath @ 9/2 Bet365
……..
6.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Competitive field as you would expect for a race like this. A realistic case can be made for a good handful of these. That says certainly the most interesting contender is Desert Fox.
Lightly raced, he got off the mark in his third handicap start at Chelmsford nine days ago. He couldn’t have been more impressive in what looked a deep race as well. Wide draw, slightly interfered and set alight early on, he travelled strongly and put the race easily to bed in the closing stages.
Both TS and RPR back this performance up, meaning the five pound hike in the mark may not stop him.
He finished last a good five weeks earlier here at Kempton over 7f. There is a good excuse for that, which isn’t the trip: after a bumped start he rushed to the front and may way too much way too early.
Plenty of upside potentially for Desert Fox, though, who shouldn’t mind the step up in class. He’s got a good draw here to utilize and hopefully he gets a clear run this time – then he could be hard to stop, despite the general competitiveness of this race.
Can newly crowned 2017 American Horse Of The year, Gun Runner, finish his career in the most lucrative fashion? He certainly is the red-hot favourite for the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Whether even money is a good or a bad price depends on individual perspective. Undisputed is, however, that the reigning Breeders’ Cup champ has all the credentials to win a fifth consecutive Grade 1.
He drops down a furlong from his impressive Del Mar success, which isn’t a problem given his excellent record over 9 furlongs. SO, can he beaten?
Absolutely! Drawn wide, he’s got to be at his very best to prevail in a deep field. He’s had a tough campaign last season, including a trip to Dubai. That can take a toll on horses, as we have seen in this very same race only twelve months ago, when California Chrome flopped spectacularly.
Is he going to be at his very best coming off a near three months lay-off? Possibly – Steve Asmussen knows the horse best and will ensure his star is ready for one final big performance.
Nonetheless, at even money I have to oppose him, simply from a betting perspective, with other exciting options available to back against the favourite.
Pacific Classic winner – inflicting a painful defeat to Arrogate – and BCC runner-up Collected rates a big danger on that form. He has no problems with the trip, usually travells well and is gutsy.
He flopped in a Grade 2 at the back-end of the 2017 season; some recent reports from the US suggest he did not impress in his workouts. That’s not to say he can’t be back to his best when it matters most – but maybe those big runs have left a mark?
West Coast looks more likely to cause the ‘upset’. Impressive Travers Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby successes, followed by a third placed- and far from disgraced effort in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
A drop to 1m 1f should suit this horse down to the grounds. From a perfect draw he should be in a perfect position when it really matters. Castellano gets the leg up. He is still only four, so could potentially improve. He’s a big player here and one I like allot. 7/1 looks a good price.
That says, 10/1 for Sharp Azteca looks even better in my book. The speedball has a perfect draw to suit his running style, though could face competition for the lead. He proved versatile, on the other hand, and seems to have no problem tracking the pace either.
He landed a first Grade 1 success at Aqueduct in the Cigar Mile in most impressive style despite carrying top weight. If the Pegasus would be run over a mile, Sharp Azteca would be hard to beat. It isn’t, though. Hence the additional furlong is the key question.
Plenty are of the opinion he won’t stay the trip. Once taken on by the big guns in the home straight he will falter. You can point to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile where exactly that happened. Though there were some slight excuses, possibly, that day.
On the plus side: even though only on Grade 3 level, he won the Monmouth Cup over 1m 1/2f by more than seven lengths back in July last year. He didn’t appear to be stopping – and albeit better opposition awaits here – I do not see how Sharp Azteca is down as not staying 9f in the book of so many.
On pedigree there is certainly every chance he could even stretch out to 10 furlongs. Furthermore, Gulfstream Park is a track he already won twice at; it is a course to favour his running style in general. So I think there is every chance that Sharp Azteca is in the right place when it matters.
At 10’s I feel he is overpriced. Yes, he is not the most likely winner in the race. But he is the biggest value being fully unexposed over the trip, coming here in the form of his life, with a perfect draw and conditions to suit.
Contemplating over this race for the whole night, my horse has a less than ideal draw, 100 day+ lay-off and a yard in poor form against in a highly competitive race.
But on the other side there are too many positives to not get involved. Talking about De Vegas Kid, the only colt in the field.
This horse is still a maiden and certainly had plenty of opportunities. He was a bit unlucky not to get off the mark in a handful of races last season, though. That shows he needs things to fall right, however, he ran excellent at Newcastle in March over 7f off 6lb higher than his current handicap rating.
He followed up in spring with two more fine performances on the All-Weather, before becoming frustrating, unable to take advantage of a slipping mark, on turf. He was desperately unlucky not get his head in front at Brighton in August and September.
De Vegas Kid has been off since then, makes a reappearance now dropping down to 6f for the very first time. An interesting move. I feel Lingfield as a track could suit him quite well, so may the trip. Certainly on pedigree it is not unlikely to see him improve a little bit. Sire and dam’s sire have excellent records on the British All-Weather over this distance with their offspring.
He has proven last season to be well capable of running to his current 52 rating, possibly slightly above that. If race fit, and if the trip can eke out a little bit of extra, then he must go very close in this race.
Selection:
10pts win – De Vegas Kid@ 11/1 PP
……
8.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Probably a race between Envisaging, Blazed and Daschas. Daschas was tremendously backed the other day when dropping down to the minimum trip at Newcastle – he didn’t quite get there and while the additional furlong works in his favour, I think he showed to be in the grip of the handicapper having little to nothing in hand.
Envisaging is consistent and has form in the book that gives him a prime chance to run close once more. His overall strike rate leaves him vulnerable to an improver, though. This one should be Blazed.
Still relatively low mileage, he’s clearly a quirky character who makes a habit of missing the break. That is an issue that cost him a couple of races likely I firmly believe. It might be an issue here again.
However he remains open to a bit of improvement trying 6f again. He finished well last month under an easy hands and heels ride, clearly with another day in mind I felt.
He steps up in class and has to prove that he fully stays the trip. The pedigree gives plenty of hope. Kempton might suit him better as a track. A galloping course with a longer home straight gives him a better chance to run the field down.
Roger Charlton and Kieren Shoemark team up – a very profitable combination particularly in All-Weather Handicaps.
From top draw start Archimedes in this contest over the minimum trip tomorrow. To be drawn low over this CD is a massive advantage as pointed out on this blog several times in the past; drawn in 1 is the cherry on the cake, so to speak.
Archimedes is for many reasons, not only the positive draw, and intriguing individual. For one, he is a course and distance winner – last January he won this exact race off 3lb higher than his current handicap rating. He ran to a whopping RPR of 70 that day (in the context of his official rating).
He backed this up later in the year on turf at Bath on fast ground over 5f, when winning off the same mark running to a similar RPR.
Problems started soon after. He missed plenty of assignments and ran mostly poorly. An issue with his wind was identified and hopefully rectified through a wind OP in November. He returns to the track after a near 100 day long break for his first run after the OP.
Obviously this procedure might not work as hoped, however, given the fact he won this very same race last year, is dangerously well handicapped and has a top draw, in combination one would hope he can return to some sort of last seasons form which would see Archimedes go close.
Selection:
10pts win – Archimedes @ 12/1 William Hill
…….
3.55 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Open contest with no standout, however Zorovan, despite tumbling odds, looks still a tasty option.
The 5-year old is a course and distance winner and finished a fine 2nd in a class 4 Handicap over CD subsequently of a mark off 77. Both runs awarded him RPR’s of 81 and 85 and he followed up with a success on turf of a handicap mark off 80 some weeks later.
Racing in strong handicaps of high marks, he couldn’t quite continue to ride the wave of success and hasn’t been in the money ever since.
After a half-year long break he reappeared at Newcastle in December, probably needed the run badly when well beaten. He did a bit better the next time at Chelmsford in a deep race, tiring late.
A return to this course and distance as well as a further 3lb drop in the weights should see Zorovan in much better light, though. It’s Keith Dalgleish’s only runner on the card and a fair 3lb claimer is booked for the ride – a big run is expected here, I feel.
The news broke on Tuesday afternoon and Twitter went wild: Arrogate was crowned the World’s Best Racehorse in 2017.
Australia’s wonder mare Winx finished second, Cracksman and Gun Runner joint third. And Enable? The Arc, dual Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and QE II champion?
Fifth. Let that sink in….
“Are you kidding???” my initial reaction. A couple of angry tweets later I remind myself how these self-proclaimed world thoroughbred rankings are compiled.
Arrogate landed the Dubai World Cup in most scintillating fashion, flopped on three subsequent occasions afterwards – however, this doesn’t matter for the rankings. One might wonder why? It all makes sense if you know what BHA handicapper Phil Smith explains:
“We look at the best sustainable performance over the whole year. We ask if the form of a race can be supported and substantiated by the prior and subsequent performances of the winner and/or placed horses.
With Arrogate, his Pegasus World Cup win nearly replicates his Dubai World Cup performance. The form of the placed horses in both races is also rock-solid. What we are talking about here is a classification of performances from January 1 to December 31.”
Long story short: the World’s Best Racehorse is awarded to the horse that ran the single best race in the given year. It probably would be more appropriately titled “World’s Best Racing Performance in 2017”.
Plenty of wise racing folks are of the opinion Arrogate’s stunning Dubai win was, indeed, the single biggest performance of the entire year. So there must be some merit to it – who am I to argue?
Because his performance in the DWC was deemed so outstanding, it didn’t matter what else he did in 2017. In the eyes of the panel (that came up with the rankings), that day Arrogate repeated performances from the past, hence the performance was deemed sustainable.
Well, racing and judging performances is subjective – the world thoroughbred rankings are highly subjective as well. An esteemed panel comes up with these ratings – still it is a subjective way of assessing performances. There is no other way in racing, though.
Personally, I do not agree with the rankings. Plenty others do. And that is okay, too. I believe, nonetheless, to crown the best horse of any year based on one single performance – in this case achieved in March – while not taking into account the rest of the year and therefore subsequent performances, is flawed.
I find it hard to accept that a filly like Enable, who won five top class Group 1 races in 2017, doesn’t even get into the top 3 of these rankings. Mind you, The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe was named the best individual race of 2017… but the horse who won it, who clearly repeated her big performances time after time, finishes in the so called World’s Best Racehorse rankings only in 5th place.
It’s not right. In my eyes, at least. I think, if you want to ensure that this award is a serious reflection of achievement in a given year, you have to be able to reflect and look back on the entire year in order to decide what performance(s) reflect the very best of this given year. That has its own flaws, mind. Still, it would be a fairer way, in my opinion.
That doesn’t take anything away from Arrogate. He was – deservedly so – crowned the World’s Best Racehorse in 2016. He clearly was not the best in 2017, though. His DWC victory remains a sensational piece of achievement, nonetheless.
So does Enable’s Arc win, beating eleven other Group 1 winners that day. Doing at at the end of a long season. Doing it after landing four other big Goup 1 prizes during her 2017 campaign.
So is a third consecutive Cox Plate win by Winx. Who did it after winning nine other graded races in 2017, including 5 more Group 1’s.
That’s class. Class that has been repeated over and over again. An exceptionally high level of performance that is sustainable. As 2017 proved.
This is a pretty deep race for a low grade handicap on a random January Tuesday on the Southwell Fibresand. Any number of horses could easily have a fair shout – but it is the new Michael Appleby recruit Canford Thompson that may hold all the aces.
The five year old gelding remains a maiden on the flat after 11 starts, although he won a maiden hurdle in 2016. Nonetheless, he is a super interesting individual after catching the eye on the last two occasions at Lingfield.
Back from a near year long break back in November over 2 miles, followed up in early December over 12 furlongs – in both races Canford Thompson ran an awful lot better than the bare form suggests, as in both cases he made eye-catching progress from over 4f out on the wide outside. The sectionals back both performances up as quite significant in the context of these moves and are valid excuses for him finishing tired in the final furlong.
The forms of those races, particularly the 12f contest in December, work out really well. They give the form credit and upgrade his performances in both contests in my book. Regardless, the handicapper dropped him 3lb to a career lowest mark.
I believe Canford Thompson is incredibly well handicapped if receiving a more solid & economical ride. Concerns I do have over the surface which he tries for the first time in combination with his habit to start slowly.
This more demanding surface and a hopefully good pace might be what he wants but it easily could not suit him if he finds himself behind early on when blowing the start. We shall see.
However, then he’s of even more interest the next time. It is worth a try, though, and the fact that Alistair Rawlinson is in the saddle, who has a superb record for the Appleby yard at this course, suggests a big run is certainly expected.
Take out the favourite Indigo Princess, who may not be able to reproduce her massive performance from three days ago, and you are left with a race wide open for anyone who is on a “going day” to take it.
Despite four poor performances to date, long-shot Shackles might be the answer here. He hasn’t shown an awful lot, though, with a bit of goodwill there were some positives to take from his comeback run at Wolverhampton in December on his first start for the Nicky Richards yard.
Only four career starts, this here will be his second run in a handicap, and he can do so off a rating lowered to 53 now. There is a fair chance Shackles is a bit better than that. On pedigree the jury is out particularly on the question of the Fibresand surface – though, on the dam side is plenty of hope with the dam’s sire having an excellent record at this track.
Shackles was a late April foal, so turning four now, he may needed the time to mature, so his year long absence before his reappearance last month might actually be a good thing.
Eye-catching jockey booking with Paul Mulrennan who has only two rides on the card while Nicky Richards has only this one runner – Mulrennan has to weight nearly two hours until the final race on the card until he can go home after his initial ride.
Interestingly, Richards had only one runner at Southwell up until now – ridden by Paul Mulrennan. It was a winner.
4th October 2009. A day ingrained in memory. For ever. The day perfection in equine form became real. The day Sea The Stars wrote history.
I was still living in Germany. Following the 2009 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on my computer with the help of an almost colourless 240p internet stream. It didn’t matter. What mattered was the race. And the horse with the guy in the yellow silks riding.
It was my first full season following the sport of horse racing. Couldn’t have been a better year to get into it, right? Following Sea The Stars’ progress throughout the year, slowly but steadily understanding the historical importance of his achievements – what a wonderful, thrilling and emotional six months it were to witness. Horse racing at its best!
A Star Too Early
Sea The Stars came too early – or I came too late to party – I never saw him in flesh. It was only a couple of years later that I should eventually end up Ireland, though. I missed him by two years.
Ever since my love for the sport has grown into a passion that saw me creating this website and going racing near and far – from the Curragh in Kildare to Hanshin in Japan.
Still, there was the elusive dream: ever since this magical autumn day in 2009 all I wanted was to see the almighty Sea The Stars with my own eyes.
Trail of Greatness
An elusive dream no longer. Thanks to the Irish Thoroughbred Trail! An initiative by the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing (ITM), running for a fourth consecutive year now – though in earlier years I never made it for various reasons such as work- & travel commitments as well as a simple lack of awareness.
This time ITM made a huge effort to put the word out and make sure the message gets through to everyone: breeders and racing fans alike, come and join us for the Irish Thoroughbred Trail; 29 stud farms have taken part on Friday- and Saturday 12th/13th January 2018.
Such esteemed names as the famous Coolmore Stud, the Aga Khan’s Gilltown Stud, Shadwell’s Derrinstown Stud or Darley’s Kildangan Stud all opened their doors for visitors.
Come To See A Star
Safe to say I didn’t let the chance slip this time. A moment of magic it was, indeed. Eye to eye with the champion. He musters you, a straight look into your eyes; I pick up the camera, holding the big lens right in front of his nose….
Ears pricked, relaxed, standing proud and tall surrounded by an aura of pure confidence. Sea The Stars knows. He’s got the awareness. He’s the king here and everywhere.
The now 12-year-old still looks the part. The most beautiful thoroughbred one can imagine. But it’s his aura that stands out for me – there’s something in the firm, clear, obvious, assured, yet gracious and elegant way Sea The Stars presents himself. I haven’t seen nor felt anything like it in the presence of any other horse.
A Wonderful Experience
Gilltown Stud is doing a wonderful job. Friendly staff greeting you at every corner; handing out Sea The Stars gift bags for ever visitor; heated shelter and quality refreshments made available. Top class!
Half an hour further down the road is Darley’s Kildangan Stud. The second and final stop on my personal Stallion Trail. The weather turned grim by now. Wind and rain whipping in people’s faces. At the stud they do their upmost to make it the most enjoyable experience, regardless. I can only applaud the studs and their staff for putting in such tremendous effort.
13 stallions parade in front of eager eyes; young and old is here, braving the weather. Exceed And Excel still has the appearance of a racehorse. Beautifully defined muscles – you can see why he was such a top-class sprinter back in the day.
Ribchester has settled well in his new home it appears. He’s one of the more relaxed stallions. Takes it in his stride. The imposing Dawn Approach doesn’t cease to impress whenever I see him. Teofilo, Belardo…. it’s an esteemed list of superb racehorses enjoying their second career here at Kildangan Stud.
To open the doors, not only for breeders but also for racing fans, has to be applauded. The studs play the vital part here, without their welcoming openness the Irish Stallion Trail would not be a thing.
A Step In The Right Direction
At the same time only this welcoming openness – and I would add transparency which drives education on how the sport functions – has to be the way forward for horse racing.
Irish racing in the past has not only been accused but in fact has neglected the interest of the common racing fan. The most recent example was to continue having the major Group 1 meetings, like the Derby, at the Curragh during the time of its rebuild.
From my own experience, Irish Racing also tends to – or did so at least in the past years for as long as am going racing here (since 2011) – to cater for the casual once-a-year-event-goer rather than the racing fan who’s also there when they run a low-grade card a on a dreary January Sunday.
Thankfully this is changing. And it has to – if the sports wants more than pure survival but also wants to thrive. It is all well intended to try attract new groups of people for the sport. However, don’t forget your existing fanbase.
Initiatives like the Irish Thoroughbred Trail (or the equivalent Champion Trail during Irish Champions Weekend) provide a superb opportunity to do exactly that – exiting new potential race goers and at the same time offering value for existing racing fans alike.
Because think this way: how are you supposed to spark the interest of people who don’t know yet that they might develop an interest for the sport, if you fail to keep the fans you already have interested and excited?
Embrace The Fans
Racing needs to embrace its fanbase. It’s their enthusiasm that fills racetracks with life on those low-key days that aren’t part of Festivals. And they do so because racing provides a unique experience that makes it so inherently different from most other sports.
Where else can you get so close to the stars, equine and human alike? Where else can fans become an actual part of the sport? Racing it is! You can’t have a chat with Jose Mourinho or pat Lionel Messi without being dragged away by some heavy security guard.
But you might be able to give Sea The Stars a pat on the head when you visit him at stud – or, as one of personal favourites – discussing with Tom Queally at Wolverhampton the Champion Stakes a day before the biggest ride of his career on Frankel.
That is what I love about horse racing. You are so close to the game – if you want. For some it is a mere betting medium with two handful of nags running around in circles. But for many others it’s so much more; passion – a sport that sets raw emotion free in us.
So, it was certainly great to see ITM making such a big effort with the Stallion Trail this year. There was a real buzz, certainly on social media – racing fans got the chance to meet their heroes but it as also a superb opportunity to engage new people and excite curiosity. This is the way to go. We need more of these initiatives that show horse racing in a different light apart from gambling and drunk ladies in short skirts.
Thank you ITM for making this possible. For giving me the chance to meet my all-time equine hero. I had some tears of joy in my eyes.
Shame we didn’t get to see Frozen Lake run today – the gelding was withdrawn under current rules after breaking through the starting gate. One for the tracker, regardless. So, a quiet week finds an unsatisfying ending.
……
7.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 1.5f
If a nine year old heads the market at odds of 7/2 you know it’s a wide open contest. That says, one who appears overprices is the Jean-Rene Auvray trained Anif as he has plenty going his way here I feel.
The gelding finished a fine third when last seen over CD 18 days ago – fair to say he had the run of the race from the front, though he wasn’t far beaten in the end and the form already works out well enough.
Anif is still low mileage, it’s gonna be his eight career start, only the third on the All-Weather and the fifth in Handicap company. He remains on the same mark as the other day, drops, though, in class, for the first time in a class 5 Handicap.
There isn’t too much pace on here again, so it is likely that Anif might find himself in front again, as he enjoys generally, or at least up with the pace. What could turn out to me a muddling affair, you surely want to be not too far off the speed, that is for sure.
His sire Cape Cross has an outstanding record with his offspring here at Wolverhampton over this trip – so overall it is possible Anif has found a golden opportunity.
Six year old Frozen Lake hasn’t exactly been firing for his new trainer yet, however, he has plenty going for himself today and could be hard to stop if he hasn’t went sour. Clearly, the son of Elusive Quality deserves his chance in this open, yet very winnable race.
Frozen drops down to a career lowest mark as well as for the first time into a class 6 Handicap. This is the easiest task he faced ever and while his latest forms aren’t reading well, still, his March 2017 run here at Chelmsford over a mile is a very strong piece of form on offer.
A return to anything near it will see him winning easily today, given this is an easier race, he’s 9lb lower and has the aid of a red hot 5lb claimer on board.
The gelding has one issue: the start. He often rears and is on the back foot right away. That can be a problem here at Chelmsford where the kickback can be severe in my opinion.
Nonetheless, he could have too much in hand to use his stamina to pick up one after another in the home straight and hopefully gets there when it matters most.
A quiet week so far, and here we go with a horse I’ve already been interested in a week ago, when he ran – and finished poorly, well beaten at Southwell.
Nonetheless, I’m prepared to give Emigrated another chance here, in this pretty poor contest that screams for an upset.
Reasons are pretty much the same as last week – however there is a slight bonus this time: Emigrated returns to a surface he probably likes a lot more, which he showed here in December when running his best race in a very long time over CD.
It was his second start for the Derek Shaw yard, after a promising initial display at Southwell coming off a break. At Chelmsford he backed it up with a fine 5th, only 2¾ beaten despite not having things going his way throughout – form that looks solid enough in the book, also.
Emigrated didn’t run well the last two times. There was little excuse last week other than a fluffed start at an unkind surface that can be hard to recover from a scenario like that – still a run to forget. The penultimate start at Chelmsford over 10f, a third run in quick succession, is easier to forgive when seen in the right context.
However, it has to be said, the five year old gelding did show eye-catching improvement in his first starts for his new trainer Derek Shaw.
Now, you don’t want to make too many excuses for a long standing maiden who hasn’t shown a lot his whole life. Nonetheless, those two forms in early December give him a fair shout in this race.
Interesting fact that Emigrated’s sire Fastnet Rock has quite an excellent record over this trip in Chelmsford Handicaps.
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