3.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Contemplating over this race for the whole night, my horse has a less than ideal draw, 100 day+ lay-off and a yard in poor form against in a highly competitive race.
But on the other side there are too many positives to not get involved. Talking about De Vegas Kid, the only colt in the field.
This horse is still a maiden and certainly had plenty of opportunities. He was a bit unlucky not to get off the mark in a handful of races last season, though. That shows he needs things to fall right, however, he ran excellent at Newcastle in March over 7f off 6lb higher than his current handicap rating.
He followed up in spring with two more fine performances on the All-Weather, before becoming frustrating, unable to take advantage of a slipping mark, on turf. He was desperately unlucky not get his head in front at Brighton in August and September.
De Vegas Kid has been off since then, makes a reappearance now dropping down to 6f for the very first time. An interesting move. I feel Lingfield as a track could suit him quite well, so may the trip. Certainly on pedigree it is not unlikely to see him improve a little bit. Sire and dam’s sire have excellent records on the British All-Weather over this distance with their offspring.
He has proven last season to be well capable of running to his current 52 rating, possibly slightly above that. If race fit, and if the trip can eke out a little bit of extra, then he must go very close in this race.
10pts win – De Vegas Kid @ 11/1 PP
8.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Probably a race between Envisaging, Blazed and Daschas. Daschas was tremendously backed the other day when dropping down to the minimum trip at Newcastle – he didn’t quite get there and while the additional furlong works in his favour, I think he showed to be in the grip of the handicapper having little to nothing in hand.
Envisaging is consistent and has form in the book that gives him a prime chance to run close once more. His overall strike rate leaves him vulnerable to an improver, though. This one should be Blazed.
Still relatively low mileage, he’s clearly a quirky character who makes a habit of missing the break. That is an issue that cost him a couple of races likely I firmly believe. It might be an issue here again.
However he remains open to a bit of improvement trying 6f again. He finished well last month under an easy hands and heels ride, clearly with another day in mind I felt.
He steps up in class and has to prove that he fully stays the trip. The pedigree gives plenty of hope. Kempton might suit him better as a track. A galloping course with a longer home straight gives him a better chance to run the field down.
Roger Charlton and Kieren Shoemark team up – a very profitable combination particularly in All-Weather Handicaps.
10pts win – Blazed @ 4/1 – Bet365